Fed Official Says Bad Data Helped Fuel Rate Cuts, Housing Speculation
By GREG IP
November 3, 2006; Page A6
In an apparent and rare in-house critique, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that because of faulty inflation data, the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long earlier this decade, fueling speculative housing activity.
A number of critics have said the Fed under former chairman Alan Greenspan kept monetary policy too easy from 2003 to 2004. But Richard Fisher's remarks to the New York Association for Business Economics yesterday mark the first time some Fed watchers could recall a sitting Fed policy maker making such comments.
Mr. Fisher said from 2002 to early 2003, inflation, as measured by the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) excluding food and energy, was running below 1%. That suggested that a serious shock to the economy could turn inflation to deflation, or generally falling prices. Deflation makes it much harder for the Fed to boost growth by engineering deeply negative real, that is inflation-adjusted, interest rates.
To reduce the risk of deflation, the Fed lowered its target for the Fed funds rate -- charged on overnight loans between banks -- to 1% in June 2003 and held it there until mid-2004. It has since raised it to 5.25%.
Mr. Fisher noted that subsequent revisions show PCE inflation was actually a half a percentage point higher than originally estimated. "In retrospect, the real Fed funds rate turned out to be lower than what was deemed appropriate at the time and was held lower longer than it should have been," Mr. Fisher said.
"In this case, poor data led to a policy action that amplified speculative activity in the housing and other markets. Today...the housing market is undergoing a substantial correction and inflicting real costs to millions of homeowners across the country. It is complicating the [Fed's] task of achieving...sustainable noninflationary growth."
Mr. Fisher, who took office in April last year, said in an interview that his speech wasn't meant to be a criticism of the decisions Mr. Greenspan and the FOMC made then. He said: "I wasn't at the table at the time -- it's easy to look at things with 20-20 hindsight. The point is we need to continue to improve our ability to develop and work with better data."
Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, called Mr. Fisher's remarks "pretty striking," while noting it is Mr. Fisher's style to be opinionated. He added that while he agrees the Fed's policy from 2002 to 2004 fueled speculative housing-bubble activity, it was still reasonable "knowing what you knew at the time. You take out some insurance against a really bad, low-probability outcome, and after the fact you regret having paid the insurance premium."
Mr. Fisher said inflation, at about 2.5% now, is still higher than his "comfort zone," but it is possible it "has peaked and is finally heading lower."
Fed governor Susan Bies echoed that sentiment in a speech to Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, saying, "inflation appears poised to decelerate in coming months... but the risks to that outlook seem tilted toward the upside."
Fed官员称数据失真助长房地产投机
2006年11月03日19:04大 | 中 | 小
达拉斯联邦储备银行行长做出了一个少有的举动：一次直言不讳的内部批评。他说，由于通货膨胀数据存在失误，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)在本世纪最初几年将利率下调得过低，持续时间过长，从而对房地产投机活动起到了推波助澜的作用。
曾有许多人士批评说，在格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)担任主席期间，Fed在2003至2004年期间的货币政策过于宽松。不过，在部分Fed观察人士的记忆中，理查德?费舍尔(Richard Fisher)周四对纽约商业经济协会(New York Association for Business Economics)的讲话是首次有在职的Fed决策人士发表如此评论。
费舍尔说，在2002年到2003年初期间，基于不包括食品和能源在内的个人消费支出价格指数得出的通货膨胀率一直低于1%。这表明，如经济受到严重冲击，市场很容易就从通货膨胀转为通货紧缩。通货紧缩将使Fed更难通过调整实际已处于负值的利率来刺激经济增长。
为了降低通货紧缩的风险，Fed在2003年6月将联邦基金目标利率下调至1%，并一直维持到2004年年中。至今，联邦利率已经上升到5.25%。
费舍尔指出，随后的修正显示基于个人消费支出的通货膨胀率实际上要比当时的预计高出1.5个百分点。
费舍尔说，现在回头看，上述期间联邦基金利率的实际水平低于应有的水平，而且持续的时间太长。
在这种情况下，数据的失误导致的政策措施推动了房地产和其它市场的投机活动。时至今日，住房市场仍在进行剧烈调整，给美国数百万房主带来了实实在在的负担。这使Fed实现持续无通胀增长的任务变得更为复杂了。
去年4月份上任的费舍尔并未表示格林斯潘和联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)在当时做出了错误决定。他只是强调了数据“及时和准确”的重要性。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席美国经济学家简?哈丘斯(Jan Hatzius)称费舍尔的讲话“很令人吃惊”，但他也指出这是费舍尔表达意见的方式。他还说，尽管他认同Fed在2002年至2004年期间的政策推动了房地产投资的泡沫，但根据当时所掌握的情况，Fed的做法也是可以理解的。他说，为了应对低概率事件的不测而采取了预防措施，事后可能会遗憾地看到做得有些过头。
费舍尔说，目前2.5%的通货膨胀率仍高于他认为适宜的区间，但通货膨胀率可能已经见顶，最终将会回落。
Fed理事苏珊?比斯(Susan Bies)在德雷克大学(Drake University)演讲时表示，通货膨胀在今后几个月中有望减速，但上升的风险依然存在。
Greg Ip
