APEC Ministers Are Warned Of Deficit in Energy Supplies
Energy ministers from the 21-country Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum were warned Thursday their region needs to invest trillions of dollars to meet a widening deficit in energy supplies.
Concerns about security and availability of energy supplies are "looming larger ... rising energy prices may cause growth in APEC economies to stall due to high oil import dependency and an inflexible energy supply structure," according to an official study presented to a meeting of APEC ministers in Manila.
APEC ministers say they are also concerned about short-term problems such as high oil and coal prices, and possible supply disruptions caused by Middle East instability.
APEC's dependency on imported oil will reach 55% by 2020, from just 36% now, said the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center in its report. APERC is a research agency established by APEC 11 years ago.
Projected increases in APEC oil demand of 2.1% annually over the next decade and a half won't be met by domestic APEC oil output rises. APEC oil production is projected to rise by just 0.5% a year, it said.
Overall, APEC's total energy demand will rise from some 3.7 trillion tons of oil equivalent to 6 trillion TOE by 2020, Philippine Energy Secretary Vincent Perez told ministers, in comments on the report at the inaugural session of their talks.
This would mean APEC's dependency on imports for all energy sources will rise to 58% from 55% now, he said.
"The fact that demand (will likely) grow faster than supply, in the long run, will be a major policy concern for us," he said.
APEC countries include the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
The Pacific Rim ministers are due to endorse a resolution later Thursday calling for contingency measures to deal with sudden shortages.
Oil supplies not only face the threat of terror, but also must be secured against natural disasters, piracy in shipping lanes and system failures, a draft of the resolution says.
Funding Problems
The research report said APEC will need to invest between $3.4 trillion and $4.4 trillion by 2020 to ensure demand is met, with the cash spent on boosting output of all energy sectors, improving pipelines, ports and energy infrastructure, and freeing up trade in energy.
About half of this amount will be needed for power generation and transmission projects, 23% on improving oil and gas output and 16% on new pipelines.
Developing countries in particular will find it difficult to find funding for these projects, partially due to their underdeveloped capital markets and concerns about investment security prompted by the 1997 financial crisis, the study said.
Asia is particularly vulnerable to oil supply shortfalls as its dependency on imports, largely from the Middle East, will rise to nearly 80% from 60% now. The main driver of higher Asian oil demand will be the transport sector, it said.
By contrast, North America's oil import dependency will rise to around 27% by 2020.
The study warned that APEC will switch from being a net coal exporter to become an importer before 2020, and said this will add to pressure on energy supplies.
Almost 99% of APEC energy supplies are held in six members countries -- Russia, U.S., China, Australia, Canada and Indonesia, it noted.
Despite the growing shortage of conventional fuels, APEC's dependency on renewable energy will fall, it said, to just 6.8% in 2020 from 8.8% of total APEC energy use in 1999.
Similarly, nuclear energy will also see its share of total APEC energy supplies decline, to 6.1% from 6.7%.
APEC可能面临能源短缺加剧的威胁
亚太经合组织(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, 简称APEC)21个成员国的能源部长周四受到警告，称该地区需要投资数万亿美元才能弥补不断扩大的能源供应缺口。
据在APEC的部长们于马尼拉举行会议期间接到的一份官方研究报告称，对能源供应的安全性和有效性的担忧越来越大，由于对进口石油的依赖过高，而且能源供应结构缺乏灵活性，能源价格的上涨可能导致APEC各国经济增长陷入停顿。
APEC成员国的部长们表示，他们还对石油和煤炭价格居高不下等短期问题，以及中东地区局势动荡可能造成的供应中断感到担忧。
亚太能源研究中心(Asia Pacific Energy Research Center)在其报告中指出，到2020年，APEC对进口石油的依赖程度将达到55%，而目前只有36%。亚太能源研究中心是APEC于11年前成立的一个研究机构。
预计今后10年内APEC石油需求的年增长率为2.1%，APEC成员国内部的石油产量增加也只能满足需求增长的一半。该报告称，APEC的石油产量每年将仅增长0.5%。
菲律宾能源部长Vincent Perez向其他的部长们表示，总体而言，APEC的能源需求总量到2020年时将由目前的大约3.7万亿吨油当量增至6万亿吨油当量。他是在会议开幕当天就上述报告发表评论时说这番话的。
他认为，这意味著APEC对各种进口能源资源依赖将由目前的55%提高到58%。
他表示，从长期来看，需求的增长可能快于供应的事实将会是APEC政策上一个主要担心的问题。
APEC成员国包括美国、加拿大、墨西哥、俄罗斯、中国、日本、韩国和印度尼西亚。
环太平洋国家的部长们周四晚些时候将签署一项决议，呼吁建立应对突发的能源供应短缺的应急方案。
该决议草案指出，石油供应不仅面临著恐怖活动的威胁，而且还面临著自然灾害、航运线路中的海盗活动以及系统失灵等问题的威胁，在这些情况下的石油供应安全必须得到保证。
资金方面的问题
该研究报告指出，APEC需要在2020年前投入3.4万亿至4.4 万亿美元，用于提高所有能源部门的产量，改进管道、港口和能源基础设施，以及促进能源的贸易自由化，如此方能确保能源需求得到满足。
上述约50%的资金投入将用于发电及传输项目，23%用于提高油气产量，16%将用于铺设新管道。
研究报告称，发展中国家尤其将会发现难以为这些项目寻找资金来源，造成这种局面的部分原因在于，发展中国家的资本市场有欠发达，以及1997年金融危机引发的对证券投资的担忧尤存。
根据该研究报告，鉴于亚洲地区进口原油占其原油需求的比重将从目前的60%升至近80%，因此该地区尤其容易受到原油供给不足的冲击；而亚洲地区高原油需求的主要推动力将是运输业。
而北美地区进口原油占其原油需求的比重将在2020年之前升至约27%。
该研究报告警告称，APEC将在2020年前从一个煤净出口国转变成一个净进口国，这将加大能源供给的压力。
报告称，APEC近99%的能源供应来自俄罗斯、美国、中国、澳大利亚、加拿大和印度尼西亚这6个国家。
报告指出，尽管传统燃料的供应日益不足，但APEC对可再生能源的依赖程度将下降，1999年可再生能源在APEC总能源使用量中的比重为8.8%，而这一比重将在2020年降至6.8%。
与此类似，核能在APEC能源总供给中的比重将从6.7%降至6.1%。
