Dollar Bears Are Still Growling
PARIS -- Has the dollar's much-anticipated meltdown been avoided or just delayed? That is the question bedeviling international investors, currency traders, economists and others in the $1.2 trillion (�984.5 billion) -a-day global foreign-exchange market.
At the start of this year, many were predicting the U.S. currency would fall another 10% against the euro and 16% against the yen -- never mind that it had already declined by 29% and 18%, respectively, during the previous two years.
But to date, the U.S. currency is actually up against both currencies. Not much, mind you, but enough to frustrate any investor who bet against the dollar. What's more, for much of the year, the currency has fluctuated in a roughly $1.18 to $1.23 range against the European common currency and between ￥106 and ￥112. Such lack of movement might be music to corporate treasurers struggling to correctly price their goods in a global marketplace, but it's also enough to drive a trader up the wall.
Even so, the dollar bears are still growling. For instance, Deutsche Bank predicts that in six months, the euro will be selling for $1.30, the British pound for $1.94 and the dollar for ￥96. In 12 months, strategists at the German bank see the three respective rates at $1.35, $2 and ￥92. Currently, the euro stands at about $1.2110; the pound is selling for about $1.8068; and the dollar is trading at ￥108.18. Most of the bears think the situation in Iraq will continue to gnaw away at the U.S. currency. They also contend that the dollar's exchange rate already reflects market expectations of a 0.25-percentage-point interest-rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve today and an accompanying statement that additional rate increases will be administered at a "measured" pace. As such, they doubt the dollar will benefit.
But it is the rising deficit in the U.S. current account -- a broad measure of trade in goods and services plus certain financial transfers -- that mostly grabs their attention. At a hefty $144.9 billion -- or 5.1% of U.S. gross domestic product -- for the first quarter, the deficit set a record and came in above expectations. Because Americans don't save enough, foreigners must fund the shortfall, either through direct investments, the purchase of U.S. stocks and bonds, bank loans or some other form.
And that's what has many people worried. Hans Redeker, global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas in London, notes that Japan's economic malaise is ending and that domestic demand is picking up throughout Asia. Also higher inflation in Asia could prompt central banks there to intervene less -- that is, buy fewer dollars. "As a result, the U.S. will lose its most important funding pillar," he says. By the end of the first quarter of 2005, he forecasts the dollar will be at $1.30 to the euro and ￥90.
Mark McFarland, a currency strategist at UBS in London, says that funding for the current-account deficit "is becoming increasingly more precarious." He adds that either the U.S. economy must slow dramatically, or other countries' growth must increase "to levels well above current." Expecting neither, UBS strategists predict the euro will rise to $1.32 in six months and $1.40 in 12. They also see the dollar falling to 1.15 Swiss francs by year end and 1.07 francs in a year's time -- from about 1.2625 now.
Investment consulting firm Independent Strategy, in a report to clients last week, also predicted that the U.S.'s balance-of-payments problem will turn "ominous for the dollar," but not until later this year or early next. Meanwhile, it predicts the U.S. currency will be buoyed by strong U.S. growth, strengthening employment, lower inflation -- from receding oil and commodity prices -- and expected congressional passage of the Homeland Investment Act. The latter, which would give tax breaks to U.S. companies that repatriated accumulated overseas profits, could result in $140 billion flowing back to the U.S. by year end, estimates J.P. Morgan.
Not everyone buys the doomed-dollar scenario. Strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi contend that the dollar will begin to strengthen as the Fed gradually raises U.S. interest rates. Moreover, Derek Halpenny, a strategist at the bank, says that "despite the record size of the deficit, there is little evidence that its size is proving difficult to fund." He notes that in the 12 months to April, net foreign purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds minus American investors' purchases of foreign securities were a record $843.2 billion, 57% bigger than the $537.4 billion current-account deficit for the same period.
He also contends that official purchases of U.S. securities "won't dry up completely," given China's reluctance to abandon its currency's peg to the dollar which means the Chinese appetite for buying dollars is unlikely to diminish. Mr. Halpenny forecasts that in six months the dollar will climb to $1.15 to the euro and ￥116.
To Stephen Jen, London-based chief currency economist at Morgan Stanley, America's humongous current-account deficit is more an "irritant" than the dollar's Achilles' heel. He acknowledges that the deficit is large by historical standards. But Mr. Jen contends that reflects the rest of the world's inability to grow as fast as the U.S. -- specifically other countries' failure to generate sufficient domestic demand, which in turn forces them to rely more on exports.
Theoretically, he says, a sharp fall in the dollar could help to reduce the U.S. deficit, "but it would do so at a significant cost to global growth." Such a solution would be the intellectual equivalent of trying to rectify "income inequality by making everyone poor," adds Mr. Jen.
美元熊仍在咆哮
人们预料之中的美元暴跌之劫是就此躲过去了呢，还是仅仅是推迟了？在日交易额达1.2万亿美元的全球外汇市场上，这是眼下困扰著国际投资者、外汇交易员、经济学家和其他市场人士的一个大问题。
尽管过去两年中美元兑欧元和日圆汇率已分别下跌了29%和18%，但今年年初时，许多人都预计美元兑这两种货币的汇率会分别进一步下跌10%和16%。
然而迄今为止，美元兑欧元和日圆的汇率实际都已有所上扬。一般人对此可能并不太在意，但那些看跌美元的投资者却是身受其害。更值得注意的是，在过去一年的大部分时间里，欧元兑美元汇率一直维持在1.18至1.23美元之间，而美元兑日圆汇率的波动范围也未超出过106-112日圆的区间。对那些忙于为产品在全球市场制定合适价格的企业财务主管们来说，美元汇率的相对平稳可能是个福音，但对外汇交易员们而言，这简直要让他们发疯。
即便如此，看跌美元的人士仍不善罢甘休。譬如德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)就预计，欧元兑美元汇率今后6个月内将升至1.30美元，在此期间英镑兑美元也将升至1.94美元，美元兑日圆则会跌至96日圆。该银行还预计，今后12个月内，欧元将升至1.35美元，英镑将升至2美元，而美元兑日圆则会跌至92日圆。目前欧元兑1.2083美元；英镑兑1.8073美元；美元兑108.37日圆。
多数看跌美元的人都认为，伊拉克局势将继续成为打击美元的因素。他们还声称，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)今日预计加息25个基点这一因素已经在美元汇率中得到了反映，而Fed加息声明中料会依旧出现“有节制”加息字眼的因素也已为市场所消化。因此，他们对Fed加息将使美元受益这样的观点持怀疑态度。
倒是美国不断加大的经常项目逆差最能引起他们的关注。今年一季度，美国经常项目逆差高达1,449亿美元，相当于同期国内生产总值的5.1%，不仅超出了市场预期，同时也创出历史新高。由于美国人的储蓄率低，所以贸易逆差导致的资金缺口需要由外国人来填补，他们或需在美国直接投资，或需购买美国的股票、债券、银行贷款或其他金融产品。
这正是令许多人担心的问题。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻伦敦的货币策略部门全球负责人汉斯?雷德克(Hans Redeker)指出，日本的经济低迷局面即将结束，亚洲各地的本地需求正在不断增长。而亚洲通货膨胀水平上升可能会使当地的央行减少汇市干预，也就是说减少美元购买量。他因此认为，美国将失去其最重要的资金支柱。雷德克预计，在2005年一季度结束前，欧元将升至1.30美元，美元将跌至90日圆。
瑞银(UBS)驻伦敦的外汇策略师马克?麦克法兰(Mark McFarland)认为，填补美国经常项目逆差的资金来源将越来越不稳定。而要缓解这一局面，在他看来要么是美国经济增长大幅放缓，要么需要其他国家的经济增长率提高到远高于目前的水平。不过瑞银的策略师们认为上述两种情况都不可能出现，因此他们预计欧元将在今后6个月内升至1.32美元，在今后12个月内升至1.40美元。他们还预计，美元兑瑞士法郎汇率年底前将从目前的1比1.2658左右跌至1比1.15，今后1年内将进一步跌至1比1.07。
当然并非所有的人都对美元持悲观看法。东京三菱银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi)的策略师们就认为，随著Fed逐步上调美国利率，美元将开始走强。这家银行的策略师德里克?哈潘尼(Derek Halpenny)甚至还说，尽管美国的贸易逆差达到创纪录水平，但尚无证据显示寻找弥补这一逆差的资金已是不可能的事情。在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻伦敦的首席货币策略师斯蒂芬?金(Stephen Jen)看来，美国庞大的经常项目赤字远非美元的致命弱点。他承认美国的经常项目赤字已升至历史最高水平，但他辩称，这不过是世界其他地区的经济无法像美国那样快速增长的反映，尤其是无法像美国那样创造足够的国内需求，这迫使其他国家只能更多依赖出口。
他说，从理论上讲美元大幅贬值会有助于减少美国的贸易逆差，但美元贬值却会对全球经济增长造成严重打击，这种解决办法无异于通过让所有人都变穷来消除贫富差距
