Demand for Gold May Surge in India
NEW DELHI -- Strong growth in India's farm incomes after a second straight year of good monsoons will increase demand for gold imports in 2004, an industry official said.
"Rural demand in the first six months has been very strong and is expected to remain high over the year," said Sanjeev Aggarwal, managing director of World Gold Council, India. "Besides, a number of people who invested in the stock markets ploughed back their capital gains into gold in the first quarter of 2004, which further boosted demand for gold."
India is the world's largest consumer and importer of gold, with 80% of its total demand coming from jewelry makers.
The country's gold consumption has been steadily rising since late last year following a rise in disposable income for members of India's large middle class who depend heavily on agriculture for their livelihood. The country's agriculture sector saw a strong harvest last year and is expecting a similar crop this year.
India's farm output rose 10% in the year ended March 31, compared with a year earlier. Gold demand rose 16% in 2003, to 588 metric tons, while the value of total gold imports was 320 billion rupees ($7 billion).
Mr. Aggarwal said gold demand could reach 600 metric tons in 2004 if prices aren't too volatile during the rest of the year and if the economy continues to grow at a fast rate.
He said imports also could be higher in 2004, but didn't give an estimate.
"If the Monsoon rains are good, economic growth will accelerate and that would definitely boost gold demand. Besides, the WGC is also doing promotional activities to keep consumer interest in gold high," said Mr. Aggarwal.
He said gold prices in India will depend on the strength of the U.S. dollar. "The weakening of the dollar over the past several months led to a rise in gold prices globally, and in India. Recent trends suggest gold prices are [stabilizing] and may remain range-bound over the next two to three months," said Mr. Aggarwal.
He added that gold prices "may hover around current levels," though he didn't give a range in which prices may fluctuate.
India's gold prices rose about 12% from a year earlier to 6,015 rupees per 10 grams yesterday, after reaching 5,380 rupees per 10 grams Saturday.
Mr. Aggarwal said demand for gold jewelry had seen a rise in 2003, despite higher global prices and increased competition from diamonds, silver and platinum, in line with changes in fashion trends.
"Despite diamond and silver jewelry starting to make a presence in the Indian market, gold remained an overwhelming choice of most women."
He added, "Gold jewelry accounts for 80% of the Indian market and grew at 16% on year in 2003. Diamond, on the other hand, accounts for just 15% of the jewelry market and grew 22% on year in 2003, on a much, much smaller base."
Speaking on the changing trends in gold jewelry, Mr. Aggarwal said women professionals are increasingly wearing lighter gold jewelry to work instead of traditional heavy gold ornaments, which are being reserved for social occasions such as weddings.
"What is important is that women have a vast array of choices in gold jewelry now. There's lighter gold jewelry, heavy ornaments, and jewelry items that have either traditional or modern designs. Choice increases interest in gold and gold sales," said Mr. Aggarwal.
印度黄金需求可能将猛增
连续两年极佳的季风气候令印度农业收入强劲增长，这将导致印度2004年对进口黄金的需求增加，这是一位黄金行业官员所表示的。
印度世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)的董事总经理Sanjeev Aggarwal说，“今年前6个月印度农村对黄金的需求非常强劲，预计这种势头将持续整个年度。除此之外，有许多股市投资者在2004年第一季度用股市投资所得购买黄金，这进一步推高了对黄金的需求。”
印度是世界上最大的黄金消费国和进口国，其中80%的需求来自首饰制造商。
印度的黄金消费自去年年末以来一致稳定增长，因为印度数量庞大的中产阶级的可支配收入增加，他们的收入主要依赖于农业。印度农业去年取得了大丰收，预计今年仍将是一个丰收年。
在截至3月31日的财年，印度农业产出较上年同期增长了10%。2003年的黄金需求增长了16%，达到588公吨，进口黄金总价值为3,200亿卢比（70亿美元）。
Aggarwal称，如果下半年黄金价格波动不过于剧烈，并且经济继续保持快速增长，2004年的黄金需求可能将达到600公吨。
他说，2004年的黄金进口可能也将增加，但是他没有给出估计数字。
Aggarwal说，如果今年仍有良好的季风气候，经济增长将会加速，这毫无疑问将会增加对黄金的需求。此外，世界黄金协会也在开展一些促销活动，以保持消费者对黄金的浓厚兴趣。
他说，印度黄金价格将取决于美元的走势。“过去几个月美元走弱导致全球黄金价格上涨，印度也不例外。最近的趋势表明，黄金价格正在（稳定）并且可能在今后2-3个月维持区间波动。”
他补充说，黄金价格“可能会在现有水平附近徘徊“，但是他没有给出可能的价格波动区间。
印度黄金价格较一年前上涨了12%，截至昨日的价格为6,015卢比/10克，周六价格5,380卢比/10克。
Aggarwal表示，尽管全球黄金价格上涨，并且来自钻石、银和白金的竞争压力加大，但黄金首饰的需求在2003年仍然走高，这一需求变化与时装潮流的变化一致。
“尽管钻石和银饰开始在印度市场取得一席之地，但是黄金仍是大多数妇女的不二选择。”
他补充说，“黄金珠宝在印度有80%的市场占有率，在2003年以16%的速度增长。在另一方面，钻石在首饰市场的占有率仅为15%，2003年的增速为22%，但其增长基数远远小于黄金。”
谈到黄金首饰的变化趋势，Aggarwal称，职业女性越来越多的佩带较轻的黄金首饰上班，而不再是传统的沉重的黄金饰物，后者被专用于婚典等一些社会场合。
Aggarwal说，“重要的是现在妇女购买黄金首饰有丰富的选择。有轻质黄金首饰，重质饰品，以及设计或传统或现代的珠宝。选择的多样性提高了消费者对黄金的兴趣并推动了黄金销售。”
