China's Surprising Growth Puts Stress on Its Grid
DONGGUAN, China -- More than a year ago, when local officials began shutting off electricity to manufacturers in this southern Chinese city one day each week, Paul Goodman altered the production schedule of his shoe factory and hoped officials would resolve the power shortages. Instead, the outages increased to twice a week. Then in May, Mr. Goodman says, he was informed that power would be axed during peak hours five days a week.
"We almost had a heart attack," says the Californian, whose DFP Shoe Co. employs 2,000 people making high-heel shoes and other women's footwear for department stores in the U.S. and Europe. With so little electricity trickling in, "we decided to make our own," he says. Now, a big generator rattles all day at the factory, gulping down diesel and pumping out watts needed to keep the production line moving. The hitch? It has raised his manufacturing costs roughly 5%.
So far, such costs aren't being passed on to retailers or consumers. But the power shortages that were once an occasional nuisance have become so widespread and persistent in China this summer that businesses across the country are fumbling for strategies to cope. In the process, many say they face rising costs as production is delayed and money is forked out for generators and fuel.
Makers of everything from lawn chairs to liquid-crystal-display monitors have shifted production to nights and weekends, as officials enforce brownouts during peak daytime hours. All but seven of the country's 31 provinces and major municipalities are experiencing shortages, including acute shortfalls in the manufacturing zones surrounding Shanghai and Guangzhou. Even the capital, Beijing, has announced that more than 6,000 local factories will be closed for weeklong "high-temperature holidays" this summer to avoid overloading the grid. The city's hotels have been asked to keep room thermostats set above 79 degrees Fahrenheit, and staff are required to take the stairs.
The outages are a reminder of the role Communist-style central planning still plays in the power sector -- and of the blunders that can result. To build any decent-size power plant in China requires central-government approval. But in the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, Beijing was loath to permit massive investment into new electricity infrastructure given how the country's economy appeared to be on a trajectory of moderate growth. So, in 2000, in a gray brick building on the west side of Beijing, officials at what was then called the State Development and Planning Commission drew up a five-year plan that envisioned electricity demand rising by less than 7% annually.
When demand jumped by more than 15% in 2003, they were blindsided. An investment boom, sparked in part by China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, has propelled the country's economy beyond even the most optimistic official projections. Some of the hottest destinations for money -- the steel, nonferrous-metals and cement industries -- also happen to be among the most energy intensive. Those three industries, together with chemical manufacturing, suck up 29% of the nation's electricity, says Hu Zhaoguang, chief economist of the State Power Economic Research Center in Beijing.
The government has rushed to bridge the gap between supply and demand, approving so many new power plants that their combined capacity will be about 150 gigawatts, nearly twice the generating capacity of Britain. But Beijing says it could take until mid-2006 before enough plants are completed.
While Chinese companies supply many power turbines, their low-tech models produce modest amounts of electricity, so the country has been soliciting bids from foreign companies to supply new technology. General Electric Co. and Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. recently won contracts to provide 23 turbines to about a dozen utilities building plants in China. GE valued its contract at about $900 million. Germany's Siemens AG has installed the main components for 16 coal-burning plants, along with gas turbines for four plants. In fiscal 2003, its sales in China for these and other projects totaled �120 million ($148.4 million), excluding joint ventures.
"The country is becoming a market economy, but planning still features relatively strongly in the power sector. Now these two trends are in conflict," says Han Wenke, deputy director general of the Energy Research Institute, a part of the National Development and Reform Commission, the new name for the government body responsible for energy planning.
That conflict is being felt by factories nationwide, including thousands of foreign-invested enterprises that constitute the muscle behind the Pearl River Delta, China's biggest export-manufacturing region. Charles Hubbs, a U.S. businessman who owns medical-supplies maker Fortunique Ltd., says that in 15 years in China he has never experienced anything like the current power shortages. The government in the Guangzhou suburb of Panyu officially cuts power to his factory one day a week, but "that's just the beginning," he says.
During hot weather last week, he was required to shut down production for three days. Each outage forces him to halt machines that normally run around the clock in making disposable protective sheets for medical instruments and microscopes. Besides the lost production time, "we lose raw materials that get stuck in the machine when the power is shut off," he says.
Like countless other factory owners, Mr. Hubbs has been waiting months for delivery of a power generator. "I wish I were in that business," he says.
Cummins Inc. of Columbus, Ind., is in that business, and "it's been a perfect storm for guys like us," says John Watkins, president of the company's East Asia operations. Sales in China this year have more than doubled in dollar terms, he says, adding that he expects to sell thousands of generator sets this year. Demand has driven prices for used machines to nearly the same level as new ones, he says.
And outages are costing managers more than just money. Early one morning, Mr. Goodman, the shoe-factory manager, stands at the front gate of his factory and gazes at the school across the street. "It's going to start up any minute now," he warns. At the stroke of 8 a.m., martial music begins blaring from loudspeakers at rows of schoolchildren doing calisthenics -- and directly into the windows of the dormitory where his workers are trying to sleep.
Before the power outages, people hardly noticed the music. But with electricity in tight supply during the day, Mr. Goodman has created a night shift to meet sales orders. Workers on the late shift are supposed to be asleep at 8 a.m., but now are awakened daily by militaristic renditions of "It's a Small World." The repercussions are being felt on the factory floor. "We just noticed the production going slower; they'd be too tired," says Mr. Goodman, who is running his generator full-tilt in order to move as many workers as possible back to the early shift. "It becomes an overhead cost, like anything."
中国电力供应紧张 生产企业苦恼倍增
一年多以前，东莞市政府开始对生产企业每周暂停一天供电，古德曼(Paul Goodman)只好调整他那家制鞋厂的生产计划，希望政府能很快解决供电短缺的问题。可惜事与愿违，停电增加到了每周两次。到了今年5月份，古德曼被告知每周5天用电高峰期间工厂都会断电。
“这不亚于一场心脏病”，古德曼说。他是美国加州人，在东莞开办的鞋厂DFP Shoe Co.拥有2,000名工人，为美国和欧洲的各家百货商店生产各类高跟鞋和女装鞋。他说，电力供应这么紧张，“我们决定自己发电”。现在，一台大型柴油发电机整日在厂区内轰轰作响，提供生产用电。至于后果，那就是生产成本增加了大约5%。
到目前为止，这部分增加的成本尚未转嫁到零售商或消费者头上。但今年夏天一度是零星出现的停电已经发展成全国性的持续供电紧张，全国各地的企业都在为此积极寻找对策。许多企业都说，因为生产被迫中断，加之要添置发电机和柴油，生产成本正在上升。
由于政府强制推行工作日用电高峰暂停向企业供电的措施，从草坪椅到液晶显示器等各类产品的生产企业都开始了夜班和周末生产。全国31个省市自治区中只有极少数地区没有断过电，上海和广州附近的沿海工业区也存在严重的电力短缺。即使首都北京也宣布，今年夏天全市6,000多家企业都将放长达一周的“高温假”，以免电网负荷过高。北京的各大酒店均被告知将空调温度保持在摄氏26度以上，员工最好走楼梯，不要乘坐高耗电的电梯。
接连不断的停电提醒人们，中国的电力产业仍然受到中央政府计划的控制，计划赶不上变化也就在所难免。在中国，兴建任何有一定规模的发电厂都需要获得中央政府的批准。1997-98年亚洲金融危机之后，考虑到中国经济适度发展的前景，中国政府不愿意投入大量资金新建电力基础设施（上世纪90年代初大量电厂上马曾给国有银行带来了巨额坏帐）。因此，2000年在北京西郊的一栋灰色楼宇内，当时的国家发展计划委员会(State Development and Planning Commission)在5年规划中预计，未来的电力需求年增长率不会超过7%。
但2003年实际用电需求增幅超过了15%，让这些官员们目瞪口呆。中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)引发的投资热潮推动中国经济飞速发展，速度之快让最乐观的官方预期也始料未及。钢铁、有色金属和水泥行业成了投资热点，它们个个都是能源消耗大户。北京的国电动力经济研究中心(State Power Economic Research Center)总经济师胡兆光说，再加上化工产业，这四个行业每年消耗全国电力供应的29%。
政府迅速采取措施平衡电力供求，大量电厂获准开工新建，总发电能力约达150千兆瓦，几乎是整个英国发电能力的两倍。但政府同时表示，要到2006年年中才能有足够的电厂完工投产，从而为电力短缺划上句号。
能源研究所(Energy Research Institute)副所长韩文科说，中国正在逐步走向市场经济，但电力行业的计划色彩依然浓重。这两大趋势正在发生激烈的冲突。能源研究所是国家能源规划机构的新名称，隶属国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)。
全国各地的生产企业都能感受到这种冲突，珠江三角洲地区的数千家外商投资企业也不例外。美国商人哈贝斯(Charles Hubbs)在广州附近的番禹市开办了一家名为Fortunique Ltd.的医疗设备供应企业，在中国已经经营了15年，他说以前从未发生过这样的断电事件，现在他的工厂每周停电一天，但“一切才刚刚开始”。
上周天气异常炎热，他的工厂被要求停工三天。那些生产医疗设备和显微镜用一次性外包装产品的生产机械平日都是24小时运转，现在每次停电时都必须暂停。哈贝斯说，不算那些失去的生产时间，“停电时卡在机器里的生产原料也被浪费了”。
和其他无数企业的业主一样，哈贝斯要等好几个月才能得到他订购的发电机。他说，“真希望我从事的是这行”。
康明斯(Cummins Inc,)从事的就是这个行业。该公司负责东亚业务的总裁瓦金斯(John Watkins)说，“这对我们来说可是天赐良机”。该公司今年在中国的销售额以美元计已经增长了一倍，还有望继续销售数千台发电机。他说，需求猛增，已经把二手发电机的价格抬升到新发电机的水平了。
停电给企业带来的损失还不止是金钱，睡眠也是其中之一。以上面提到的制鞋厂厂主古德曼为例，一清早他就站在厂区大门外，盯著街对面的那所学校。他愤愤地说，“声音随时都会传来”。早上8点整，学校喇叭里传出了激昂的军乐声，学生们开始作早操了。工厂宿舍里正准备睡觉休息的员工都能清楚地听到这种伴奏音乐。
停电发生之前，人们很少注意到学校的早操伴奏。但因为日间用电紧张，古德曼的工厂开始夜班生产，早8点正是工人睡觉休息的时间，但现在每天都会被这阵嘹亮的乐声吵醒，整个厂区都听得到乐声回响。古德曼说，“生产放慢了，工人们肯定是太累了”。发电机正在加足马力发电，古德曼希望这能使更多的工人不用再上夜班。
