China gets set to clothe America when quotas end
For the first-time visitor, the thriving textile export centre of Xiansheng, south of Shanghai, shows all the signs of an area straining to keep pace with its economic ambitions.
The roads have buckled under the weight of trucks ferrying in water to make up for drought-drained supplies, and the tunnels providing access to the county through surrounding mountains are eerily dark because of power shortages.
But in Xiansheng, all the talk is of further expansion in readiness for the end of quotas restricting exports to the prized markets of the US and Europe.
"We have to double our capacity," says Yang Hangxiang, export manager of Ningbo Hongli, which makes knitted garments and sportswear, echoing the plans of many producers in the area.
Xiansheng, which has only 25,000 residents and 432 registered textile and clothing factories and workshops, many of them in family homes, is typical of textile centres in China gearing up for the post-quota world.
After a period of scepticism that some pre-emptive protectionist measures would be put in place, China's textile industry is now investing in the belief the quotas will be lifted from the start of next year.
US importers, who have long chafed under the restrictions of quotas, are also convinced.
"It's happening, and its impact on the industry will be nothing short of revolutionary," says Bob Zane, who is in charge of global sourcing and manufacturing for Liz Claiborne, the US retailer.
Mr Zane's latest plan for the post-quota world envisages Liz Claiborne halving both the number of countries from which it sources its clothes and the factories it uses around the world in the next three to four years.
In the process, China's share of company direct overseas sourcing will go from about 15 per cent to about half, a ratio that Mr Zane expects other big US purchasers will match.
The US International Trade Commission predicts that China will become the supplier of choice for the US because it can compete "on almost any type of product at any quality level".
A study by McKinsey for DHL, the parcel express carrier, concluded that China could account for up to half of the world's clothing exports by 2008.
Since Beijing joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, Chinese exports of textiles and clothing to the US have already almost doubled from $6.5bn to $11.6bn (?9.3bn, ￡6.2bn), according to the US International Textile Association.
In categories where quotas have already been lifted, including brassieres and baby clothes, China's exports to the US rose between 10 and 20 times, securing it a 40-60 per cent market share. The reason, industry executives say, is that China offers a "one-stop shop" of efficient and productive labour, modern machinery, and reliable customs processing.
"China happens to be the place where you can do it because, within a certain area such as the Pearl River Delta, you have everything you need to produce a garment," says Peter Liu, chairman of the textile and clothing committee at the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.
In terms of hourly wages, says William Fung, managing director of Li & Fung, a leading Hong Kong trading company, "China's not the most competitive, not by a long shot. Even some countries in the Caribbean have lower wages than China.
"But it's their productivity. And look at the amount of foreign direct investment that's gone into China in the last few years - you're teaming up really competitive hard-working labour with the latest machinery."
Still, some executives believe the country's chronic shortages of power, water and other crucial supplies, like those being endured in Xiansheng, will constrain its production capacity - at least initially.
"China's Achilles heel is that they don't have the raw materials," says Mr Fung.
In particular, executives say China's shortage of cotton could dull its competitive advantage. This year the shortage pushed up domestic prices of the material and forced manufacturers to import from Pakistan and elsewhere.
Kenneth Fang, chairman of Fang Brothers Knitting, a Hong Kong company that supplies Marks & Spencer, the Gap and Ralph Lauren, says the economy's rapid expansion is making it increasingly difficult to find garment workers.
Chinese labour is also more expensive than that in Vietnam, for example. Garment manufacturers pay workers in Vietnam $1-$1.50 per day; Chinese labourers command at least $2.50-$3. Mr Fung believes Chinese and Vietnamese workers are equally productive.
For many executives in Hong Kong, a key sourcing centre for the garment industry, the most immediate concern is US safeguard mechanisms that can be used when Chinese exports outside of quotas "surge". This would allow the US to limit China's export growth to 7.5 per cent.
Many producers and buyers say they will be hedging their bets until it is clear whether and when the US government decides to exercise its right to impose safeguards.
"It's like investments or gambling - you just don't know," says Mr Liu. "Customers don't know where to place their orders."
Executives expect safeguards between the US and China to be in place for some clothing categories by the end of 2005 and are planning accordingly. "You can't afford all your eggs in one basket so we will maintain our production base in most of the countries," says Mr Fang.
As an insurance policy, some will be keeping production facilities operating in Hong Kong, which, because of the quota system, still employs 45,000 textile and clothing workers despite its high costs.
John Tsang, Hong Kong secretary for commerce, industry and technology, is keen to prolong that trend. "We want our manufacturers here . to produce goods that have high value-added so that they can command a higher price," he says.
Others such as Mr Fang will be expanding production in countries like Thailand and Mexico, in addition to China.
But regardless of any US decision on safeguard mechanisms, which in any case apply only until 2008, executives agree that the momentum in the garment industry is swinging inexorably to mainland China.
The scope for further increases unnerves even some of the Chinese operators, such as Wang Heqing, the owner of Ningbo Hongli, who jokes that China's ability is "scary".
"We could make 100m T-shirts for $1 each - half of the US population could have one of our T-shirts," he says.
"And how many factories are there in China like us? Thousands!"
Mr Wang reckons Chinese exports are certain to provoke a backlash from the US. Mr Zane agrees but says each time new quotas are imposed under the surge provisions they are much larger than the original ones.
"They may be able to delay but they will not be able to put off the inevitable," says Mr Zane. "I think China will become the factory of the world, and they deserve that distinction."
中国准备为美国“做衣服”
初到贤庠的访客会觉得，这个上海南面纺织品出口中心看上去欣欣向荣，充分显示出该地区希望在经济上有所作为的野心。
为弥补几近干涸的供应，卡车不停地运水进来，把这里的道路压得变了形。周围的山间隧道是到达该县的通路，因为缺电，隧道里黑得可怕。
但在贤庠，所有的话题都围绕着准备在纺织品配额取消后进一步扩张。目前的配额限制了中国纺织品出口到重要的欧美市场。
宁波宏利集团(Ningbo Hongli)的出口部经理杨杭项(Yang Hangxiang, 音译)说：“我们必须把产能提高一倍。”这也是当地很多生产商的计划。宁波宏利是针织衫和运动装生产商。
贤庠仅有2.5万居民，但有432家注册纺织厂、服装厂和车间，其中许多都开在家中。中国的纺织业中心目前在为“后配额”时代摩拳擦掌，而该地区则是一个典型。
有一段时期，中国的纺织品行业怀疑，国外会预先采取一些保护主义措施，但它们现在开始相信，明年年初起配额将取消，并正为此进行投资。
美国进口商长期以来一直因配额限制而恼火，现在也对取消配额的前景确信不疑。
鲍勃?赞恩(Bob Zane)说：“此事将要发生，而且它对行业的冲击将不亚于一场革命。”赞恩负责美国零售商里斯克来勃(Liz Claiborn)的全球采购和制造业务。
赞恩先生为“后配额”时代准备的最新计划设想，在未来三到四年内，将里斯克来勃采购服装的来源国数量，以及它在全球使用的工厂数量，均减少一半。
在公司的海外直接采购中，中国的比重将从现在的15%增加到50%左右，赞恩先生预计，其它大型美国采购商也将采用这个比例。
美国国际贸易委员会预计，中国将成为美国的优选供应商，因为它几乎能在“各种产品的各个质量层面上”进行竞争。
麦肯锡(McKinsey)为包裹快递运营商敦豪(DHL)进行的一项研究得出结论说，到2008年，在全球服装出口总量中，中国可能将占到一半。
来自美国国际纺织协会的数据显示，自2001年中国加入世界贸易组织后，中国对美纺织和服装产品出口已差不多翻了一倍，从65亿美元增至116亿美元。
在配额已经取消的产品领域，如文胸和婴儿服装等，中国对美出口已增加了10到20倍，获得了40%至60%的市场份额。行业经理人士表示，原因在于，中国提供了一个“一站式商场”，供应效率高且有生产力的劳动力、现代化机械，以及可靠的海关处理程序。
香港美国商会下属纺织与制衣委员会主席彼得?刘(Peter Liu)说：“中国恰巧是你能在那里能做事的地方，因为在珠江三角洲等特定区域，你拥有生产服装所需的一切。”
香港主要贸易公司利丰(Li & Fung)的董事总经理冯国纶(William Fung)表示，以小时工资衡量，“中国并非最具竞争力的地方，绝不可能。甚至加勒比海地区的一些国家，其薪资水平也要低于中国。”
“但中国的生产率具有竞争力。看看过去几年涌入中国的外国直接投资数量就会发现，中国正把努力工作的劳动力与最新机械设备结合在一起，而中国的劳动力极具竞争力。”
不过，一些企业高管相信，正如贤庠所经受的，中国电力、水和其它重要供应的长期短缺，将限制其生产能力，至少在最初阶段是如此。
冯先生说：“中国唯一致命的弱点是，它们没有原材料。”
企业高管们表示，中国的棉花尤其短缺，可能将削弱其竞争优势。今年这种短缺推高了国内棉花的价格，并迫使制造商从巴基斯坦等地进口。
香港肇丰针织有限公司(Fang Brothers Knitting)为玛莎百货(Marks & Spencer)、盖普(Gap)和拉尔夫?劳伦(Ralph Lauren)供货。该公司董事长方铿(Kenneth Fang)说，由于经济迅速扩张，找到制衣工人变得越来越困难。
例如，中国的劳动力也比越南昂贵。服装生产商在越南每天向工人支付1美元至1.50美元，中国的劳动力则至少要2.50美元至3美元。方先生认为，中国工人与越南工人的生产力是相同的。
香港是制衣业的重要采购中心。对于香港的许多公司高管来说，最急迫的忧虑是美国的保护机制。当中国配额以外的出口“猛增”时，美国可以应用这一机制。这将使美国得以把中国的出口增长限制在7.5%。
许多生产商和买家表示，在弄清楚美国政府是否，以及何时决定运用其权利实施保护之前，他们将会两面下注以防损失。
刘先生说：“这像是投资或赌博，你根本不知道结果会如何。客户不知道到哪里去下订单。”
公司高管们预计，在2005年年底前，美中之间针对一些服装种类的保护机制将就位。他们也在据此制定计划。方先生说：“你承受不起将所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的代价，所以我们将保持在多数国家的生产基地。”
作为一项保险政策，一些公司将保持生产设施在香港的运营，但因为配额制度，尽管代价高昂，仍需在那里雇用4.5万名纺织和服装工人。
香港工商及科技局局长曾俊华(John Tsang)非常希望延长这一趋势。“我们希望这里的厂商能生产高附加值的商品，这样他们就能要较高的价格，”他表示。
包括方先生在内，其他人除了在中国扩大生产外，还将在泰国和墨西哥等国扩大产量。
但如果不考虑美国在保护机制上的决定(无论如何，这一机制只能实施到2008年)，企业高管们一致认为，服装产业的动能正势不可挡地向中国大陆转移。
就连一些中国的营运商，也对进一步增长的巨大空间感到不安。比如宁波宏利的老板王核清，他开玩笑地说，中国的能力很“可怕”。
他说：“我们能以每件一美元的价格生产1亿件T恤，那么美国一半的人口能穿上我们的T恤。像我们这样的工厂在中国有多少？几千家！”
王先生估计，中国的出口肯定会引起来自美国的对抗性反应。赞恩先生同意这个观点，但他表示，每次在供应激增的情况下设置新配额时，这些配额要比原先的大许多。
“它们也许能拖延，但它们无法推脱不可避免的事情，”赞恩先生说道，“我认为中国将成为世界工厂，而他们够得上这个级别。”
(back)Innovation with purpose
In the late 1990s, companies of all stripes thought their goal was to remake themselves in the image of the internet, or at least in what they perceived the internet to be. Older and wiser now, businesses today realise that the image in which they must cast themselves is actually that of their customers.
Leading companies and indeed entire industries are being turned upside down not because they are in a rush to deploy dazzling technology but rather because customers have become so knowledgeable, discriminating and accustomed to having near-unlimited alternatives from which to choose. Companies that truly want to be able to move at the speed of their customers will require great agility, speed, and opportunism. The key question is how do we achieve this?
The first step is to recognise three powerful and parallel movements. These are the global appetite for personal technology (computers, handheld devices, music players, digital phones/cameras, plasma TV screens, etc); the rapid proliferation of high-bandwidth delivery services; and the corporate advance from mainframe to minicomputer to PCs to networks, the internet, wireless and the emergent form of a "document" known as E-paper.
On the first trend, we already see proof that a global digital society has emerged. Imagine the impact of this change when today's young people - who have never known a world without PCs and Instant Messenger and web searches and digital photography and file-sharing - enter the workforce. Second, the acceleration in high-bandwidth adoption blurs the line between broadcasting and narrowcasting, creating greater possibilities for highly targeted distribution of rich media content. And third, technology companies continue to introduce tools that are smaller, faster, cheaper, more powerful and easier to use.
As daunting as all these advances might be, though, the even greater challenge for business leaders lies not in keeping up with technology but rather in improving the human behaviour which lies behind it.
Customer-focused breakthroughs won't happen unless we couple the potential of the new database system we've just purchased with new approaches to customer self-service, unintrusive marketing, or personalised approaches. For instance, Radio Frequency Identification, a technology used on product tags, is an exciting development which could one day replace the barcode in our stores. It will amount to nothing, however, if it is not seamlessly blended into fresh approaches to billing, shipping and warehousing.
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Companies in the technology-media business, such as United Business Media, have become familiar with these kinds of upheavals. Our business used to be fairly stable and predictable. The focus was primarily on the products the customers were buying rather than on what the customers were doing. In the late 1980s and long into the 1990s, the winners in our industry were huge print titles and enormous, broad-based face-to-face shows and exhibitions.
Then came the internet and suddenly the balance of power began to tilt away from the gatherers and reporters of information, who distributed it on their terms, to the consumers of information.
With few exceptions, media companies in the late 1990s misjudged the internet. Rather than weaving it seamlessly into their existing businesses, most media companies believed that its emergence meant the death of traditional media and events. The needs and desires of the customer were pushed into the background as companies were seduced by the magic of whizz-bang technology: they believed that anything and everything that "could" be done using the internet therefore "should" be done.
I'd like to say that brilliant CEO strategists stepped in to rectify this situation. In truth, it was the onset of the economic downturn of late 2000 and early 2001, followed by the terrorist attacks of September 2001. Businesses were forced to abandon their focus on pure strategy and theory, and to replace it with an emphasis on execution and measurable performance.
The search for operational efficiencies, return on investment and increased productivity has once again reassumed pre-eminence in boardrooms. For media, this has meant the recognition that it was not the technology but rather the customer that matters, and always was. But media owners have also had to grasp a new truth brought out by the internet: the old model of "We control what you get, when you get it, and how you get it" is over.
The seller's market is dead, and this new buyer's market is here to stay. We have begun to see traditional media companies create new products as well as product extensions employing the internet as a tool in the exercise rather than its objective, and allowing them to deliver focused, specific information and insight to precise sections of their audiences.
Among the many benefits of this approach is the establishment of incredibly valuable feedback loops with these audiences, often to the point of weaving these reader-customers deeply into the creation of new products and services. We have developed a range of highly targeted online communities and can also offer multichannel custom solutions specific to individual customers.
We have and will continue to make innovative use not only of the internet but also many other types of information technology. This will continue to enable us to optimise our business processes, allowing us to create greater customer intimacy, new revenue streams and new opportunities for future growth.
While we've all got some arrows in our backs from earlier adventures, in our business we've emerged from those days with products customers want, and indeed demand.
下一波: 创新要有目的
上世纪90年代末，大大小小的公司都认为，它们的目标是在互联网上重塑自我形象，或至少是在他们所理解的互联网上。如今，这些公司更加成熟，也更加聪明了，它们意识到，它们必须要塑造的，其实是自身在客户心中的形象。
不光是领先的公司，事实上整个行业都在发生翻天覆地的变化，这不是因为它们忙于令人眼花缭乱的技术，而是因为客户越来越见多识广，对产品越来越挑剔，并已习惯于拥有几乎无限的选择。公司如果确实想做到以客户要求的速度开展业务，就得心思敏捷、行动迅速，而且善于把握时机才行。关键问题是，我们怎样才能做到这些呢？
第一步是要认识到三股并行的强大趋势。一是全世界对个人技术(电脑、手持设备、音乐播放器、数字电话/相机、等离子电视等)的兴趣；二是高带宽传输服务的快速普及；三是公司技术应用的演变，从大型计算机上升到微电脑，到个人电脑，再到网络、互联网、无线设备，以及一种被称作电子纸的“文档”形式的出现。
在第一个趋势中，我们已能看到一个全球数字社会正在浮现的证据。想象一下，当今天的年轻人走入职场时，这种变化对他们的影响会有多大。这些年轻人从来就不知道，一个没有个人电脑、即时通信软件(Instant Messenger)、网络搜索、数字影像和文件共享的世界是怎样的。在第二个趋势中，高带宽的加速应用，令广播(broadcasting)和窄播(narrowcasting)间的界限变得模糊，为高度定向播放丰富的媒体内容创造了更大的可能性。而关于第三个趋势，技术公司不断推出体积更小、速度更快、价格更低、功能更强大、使用更简便的工具。
所有这些进步虽然都令人惊叹，但对企业领导人来说，更大的挑战不在于跟上技术前进的步伐，而在于改进技术背后人类的行为。
除非我们把刚刚购买的新数据库系统的潜力，与客户自助服务的新方法、非打扰式营销，或个性化方式结合起来，否则以客户为中心的突破就不会发生。例如，无线频率识别(RFI)是一种用于产品标签的技术，这个令人激动的技术进步可望有朝一日替代商店里的条形码。然而，如果不和计费、货运和仓储的最新方式天衣无缝地结合起来，这种技术就等于零。
联合企业媒体(United Business Media)等技术媒体行业的公司都已熟悉了这种巨变。我们的业务一度相当稳定，而且能够预测。当时，我们关注的焦点是客户购买的产品，而不是客户在做什么。从上世纪80年代后期到进入90年代后很长一段时间，我们行业中的佼佼者印刷的大报，以及庞大的、基础广泛的、面对面的展览和展会活动。
接下来，互联网出现了，于是在突然之间，力量的天平开始从信息收集和报告者(那些以自己的方式发布信息的人)那里向信息消费者一方倾斜。
上世纪90年代末，媒体企业对互联网的判断都出现了失误，而且很少有例外。多数媒体企业没能将互联网与其现有业务无缝整合，而是认为，互联网的出现意味着传统媒体和活动的消亡。由于企业受到先进技术的诱惑，顾客的需要和期望被弃之不顾。企业相信，“可以”用互联网做的任何事和所有事都“应当”用互联网做。
虽然我很想说，是才华横溢的首席执行官战略家前来纠正了这一状况。但事实上，矫正这种情形的是2000年末和2001年初经济开始走向低迷，以及2001年的“9.11”恐怖袭击。企业被迫放弃了它们对纯战略和理论的关注，取而代之的是对执行和可衡量业绩的重视。
在公司董事会上，企业对运作效率、投资回报、以及提高生产率的追求再次被提到首位。对媒体公司而言，这意味着它们意识到，重要的是消费者而不是技术，而且始终都是如此。但媒体公司的所有人已不得不接受这样一个新的事实：“你所接受信息的内容、时间和方式都由我们控制”的旧模式已经结束。这都是互联网带来的。
卖方市场已经消亡，这一新的买方市场已然形成，并将持续下去。我们已开始看到，传统的媒体公司正在开发新产品，并拓展产品功能，把互联网作为发挥效用的工具而不是目标，并使它们得以向特定受众传递有针对性的具体信息和深度分析。
这一方式有很多好处，其中之一就是能与这些受众建立起反馈循环。这种循环有着令人难以置信的价值，往往能将这些读者兼用户和新产品及服务的开发过程深度结合起来。我们已发展了一系列很有针对性的在线社区，并可为个人用户提供多渠道定制解决方案。
我们已经对互联网和许多其它信息技术进行了创造性的应用，而且还会继续这么做。这将能使我们继续优化我们的业务流程，让我们创造出更紧密的客户关系、新的收入流，以及未来增长的新机会。
虽然我们在早期经营中都遭遇过挫折，但在我们的业务中，我们已通过向客户提供他们需要的产品，以及他们真正要求的产品，走出了那段日子。
