Bush Gains Ground on Economy, But Iraq Still Tops Voters' Agenda
By JOHN HARWOOD and JACKIE CALMES
November 1, 2006; Page A1
A week before Election Day, a new poll shows President Bush getting better marks for his handling of the economy -- an issue Republicans are emphasizing in the run-up to Tuesday's vote -- but voters' anxieties about Iraq continue to dominate their concerns.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Mr. Bush, buoyed by a rising stock market and falling gasoline prices, essentially breaking even on the economy, with 46% of voters approving his stewardship and 48% disapproving. That's a gain from 39% approval and 56% disapproval in June.
IN THE POLLS
? Poll PDF:Selected questions and answers from the WSJ/NBC News poll
? Graphic: Bush's approval ratings across multiple polls
? Battlegrounds: Who's ahead in the most hotly contested Senate and gubernatorial races? Dig into the latest Zogby poll data.
? Washington Wire: November Surprise?
VIDEO REPORT
The final Wall Street Journal-NBC News election poll is out and it has some mixed news for the GOP. WSJ's Gerry Seib tells Ed Crane the economy is a plus, but Iraq remains a major negative.
? Plus, Gerry Seib says on CNBC that the current controversy surrounding John Kerry's Iraq comment moves the debate away from policy.
But as Mr. Bush's party fights to retain control of both houses of Congress, the violence in Baghdad in recent weeks has further darkened Americans' mood about Iraq -- the issue voters say is most important in their election decision-making. The result: Voters want Democrats, rather than Republicans, to control Congress by 52% to 37%, a 15-point margin. The spread matches the widest ever recorded on this question in a Journal/NBC poll.
"Iraq sits in the middle of this election," says Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. While Republicans may welcome voters' improving attitudes toward the economy, adds his Democratic counterpart, Peter Hart, "they're getting swamped on the issue of Iraq." (See related article.)
Indeed, the poll demonstrates how directly voters' attitudes on Iraq translate into ballot choices. A 54% majority of the electorate now says removing Saddam Hussein from power wasn't worth the human and financial costs -- the highest percentage in the Journal/NBC poll since the war began in March 2003. Among those voters, eight in 10 want Democrats to control Congress after the elections.
But among the 37% who say the war has been worthwhile, seven in 10 want Republicans in charge on Capitol Hill. Among all voters, 61% say they feel "less confident" the war will end successfully, while just 27% feel "more confident" about the outcome.
The national telephone survey of 1,010 registered voters, which was conducted Oct. 28-30, doesn't account for the vagaries of races for individual Senate seats or House districts; the margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
In the House, Republicans are counting on several factors to withstand the electoral headwinds: the political strength of embattled incumbents, district boundaries drawn to protect them and their party's proven get-out-the-vote operations. They could also benefit from an uptick in recent weeks in the number of voters who cite "moral values" as a crucial election issue.
Republican strategists suggest their efforts to boost turnout could add two or three points to a candidate's tally; in both 2002 and 2004, those turnout efforts bested Democrats' less-coordinated programs.
But the poll's overall findings track the assessments of key strategists in both parties that Democrats have a strong chance of achieving at least the 15-seat gain they need to capture control of the House. The outcome is cloudier in the Senate, where Democrats would need to gain six seats to have a majority.
MORE ON SENATE, GOVERNORS
Review the results of the latest polls in hot Senate races, and see what the data could mean for the breakdown of seats in the chamber after Election Day.
? The Senate's Uncertain States: Interactive profiles of the demographics and candidates in hard fought Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia.
? Battlegrounds Poll: Who's ahead in the most hotly contested Senate and gubernatorial races? Dig into the latest Zogby poll data. See the Zogby poll results
Though Democratic candidates appear to have the advantage in the race for Republican Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island, they are locked in tough battles in three key states: Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia.
In all three states, Republicans say, their turnout machine could save the day. Tomorrow, Mr. Bush campaigns in Montana, where Republican hopes are fading for Sen. Conrad Burns, who trails Democratic challenger Jon Tester in polls.
Democrats, meanwhile, cite public and private polls as evidence they will be able to hold on to Senate seats in New Jersey and Maryland, the only two of theirs that have been under threat lately.
Republicans had hoped House races would turn on local issues, such as federally funded projects that incumbents have delivered, in effect protecting their candidates from voters' dismay over Iraq and Republican scandals. But in the campaign's final days, that dismay seems to be overwhelming local messages. A number of Republicans suddenly are considered in greater danger, and in areas of the country long friendly to the party.
Among them are Reps. J.D. Hayworth in suburban Phoenix, Gil Gutknecht in Minnesota, Barbara Cubin in Wyoming and Richard Pombo in California, chairman of the House Resources Committee. Open seats in Nebraska and Colorado, both Republican-leaning states, could fall into Democrats' hands. The developments have expanded Democrats' opportunities beyond the Northeast and Ohio Valley, the regions that have long offered their best chances of making inroads.
As they have since early in the election season, the president and his party are trying to shift voters' focus to two issues more favorable to Republicans: taxes and terrorism.
Late yesterday at a Georgia political rally, Mr. Bush fired off one of his most pointed election attacks to date, suggesting Democratic congressional leaders are potential threats to a successful war against terrorism. He also went after Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who reportedly told California college students Monday, "You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't you get stuck in Iraq."
After the president called the remarks "insulting" and "shameful" and demanded an apology, Mr. Kerry said Mr. Bush was the one who owes troops an apology, for "policies that have done injury to our troops and their families." The senator said his remarks were "a botched joke" that referred to Mr. Bush, not soldiers.
In the Journal/NBC poll, just 15% of voters named terrorism as one of the most important issues in their vote. That's fewer than half the 36% who named Iraq. Some 22% identify job creation and economic growth as a top voting issue. Lately on the campaign trail, Mr. Bush has charged that Democrats would raise taxes and harm economic growth.
In the two weeks since the previous Journal/NBC poll, the percentage of voters who say issues of moral values will be critical to how they vote jumped five points -- to 18% from 13%. That may be at least in part a reaction to last week's New Jersey Supreme Court decision that same-sex couples should enjoy the same rights and benefits in the state as heterosexual married couples. Christian conservative groups and Republican candidates they support have seized on the court's ruling to fire up potential voters.
Mr. Bush has also assailed the court's decision at rallies since last week. But generally, his efforts to steer the campaign debate to more favorable ground -- whether conservative values, taxes or terrorism -- appear to have been hobbled by the bloodshed in Iraq, where more than 100 U.S. soldiers died last month. In the latest poll, 63% of voters now disapprove of Mr. Bush's handling of the war.
That has helped sour assessments of Mr. Bush's job performance overall, and left many voters eager to send him a message. Just 39% of voters approve Mr. Bush's performance while 57% disapprove. By 37% to 22% voters say they will be voting to send a signal of opposition to Mr. Bush rather than support; 38% say their votes won't reflect their feelings about the president.
The Journal/NBC survey suggests that Republicans' closing campaign push has firmed up support among some traditional backers, while pushing others away.
White men, who marginally favored a Democratic-controlled Congress in early October, now marginally favor a Republican-led one. But white women, an important swing vote, have drifted away from Mr. Bush's party; they now favor a Democratic-controlled Congress by 52% to 38%.
Both sides hold the allegiance of nine in 10 of their own partisans. But Republican support in the electorate's center has virtually collapsed. By 49% to 25%, independents want Democrats to control Congress. Suburban voters favor Democratic control by a similar 51%-to-39% margin.
Democrats also retain an edge in excitement among their voters, an advantage that has built all year long. Voters who expressed the highest levels of interest in the election prefer Democrats to control Congress by 55% to 37%.
选前民调显示布什经济得分有所提高
2006年11月02日20:42大 | 中 | 小
美国中期选举一周后即将举行。最新民意测验显示，布什在经济政策方面的支持率有所上升，而经济成就一直是共和党在下周二的选举投票前所进行的助选活动中重点强调的话题。不过，伊拉克仍是困扰选民的一个主要问题。
《华尔街日报》/全国广播公司(NBC)联合进行的调查显示，受股市上扬和油价下跌的推动，布什在经济方面的得分基本达到“五五开”，有46%的受访者表示支持布什，48%的人表示反对。此前在6月进行的调查中，支持和反对的比例分别是39%和56%。
不过，就在共和党努力维持其在参、众两院控制地位的时候，巴格达近几周来发生的暴力活动让美国人在伊拉克问题上变得越来越沮丧。选民们表示，伊拉克问题将是决定他们投票取向的最重要因素。调查结果显示，52%的人希望由民主党控制国会，37%的人希望是共和党，民主党的支持率领先了15个百分点，达到《华尔街日报》/全国广播公司在这个问题上进行的历次调查中统计到的最大差距。
协助组织此次调查的共和党民意测验专家比尔?麦克英特夫(Bill McInturff)说，伊拉克是这次选举的中心话题。不过，民主党民调专家彼德?哈特(Peter Hart)补充说，虽然选民们在经济话题上对共和党的评价有所好转，但伊拉克问题将让共和党陷入尴尬。
的确，从调查结果可以明显看出，在伊拉克问题上的态度将直接影响选民的投票意向。调查中有54%的受访者表示，推翻萨达姆(Saddam Hussein)政权不值得美国花这么大的人力、物力，这是自2003年3月对伊战争开始后《华尔街日报》/全国广播公司就同一问题进行的历次调查中比例最高的一次。在这部分受访者中，有80%的人支持民主党控制国会。
有37%的人认为这场战争是值得的，这部分受访者中有70%的人支持共和党继续控制国会。在所有受访者中，61%的人表示，对战争最后能否顺利结束“不太有把握”，只有27%的人表示对顺利结束“比较有信心”。
这次调查是在10月28日至30日之间通过电话采访方式进行的，共访问了1,010位登记选民。调查结果的误差率是3.1%。
John Harwood / Jackie Calmes
