As Yuan Gains on Dollar, Beijing Reiterates Policy
By J.R. WU and TRACY ZHENG
October 27, 2006
BEIJING -- China's yuan rose Thursday to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in more than a year and is likely to strengthen further, but a central bank official reiterated that the Chinese currency's trading limit isn't likely to change anytime soon.
In a further sign of policy caution, China's foreign-exchange regulator said it would crack down on offshore yuan-linked trading.
The dollar fell to 7.8959 yuan Thursday on the over-the-counter market, from 7.9020 yuan Wednesday, dealers said. They said they expected the dollar to fall further Friday toward support at 7.8900 yuan.
The currency's session low at 7.8935 yuan was the lowest level reached since July 2005, when Beijing revalued the yuan by 2.1% to the dollar and scrapped its de facto dollar peg.
Still, the renewed appreciation isn't encouraging China to widen the daily trading band for the yuan -- likely in part because the currency is yet to come close to breaching the daily limit of a rise or fall of 0.3% from its opening central parity rate.
Tang Xu, director of the Research Bureau of China's central bank, said on the sidelines of a local conference, that the current dollar-yuan trading band is sufficient. He also played down prospects of a significant change in the makeup of China's foreign-exchange reserves, which at the end of September were just below $1 trillion, still the world's largest.
Still, Mr. Tang acknowledged in a paper he presented at the conference that China's capital controls, which in part distort the foreign-exchange market in China, help create expectations for yuan appreciation.
Separately, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange barred local institutions and individuals from trading offshore yuan derivatives, an official in SAFE's news department said. The official didn't offer further details, but said the rule would be posted publicly soon.
Offshore dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards reflect expectations of the yuan at some time in the future, but are settled in dollars, not yuan.
China may be trying to ensure it can keep its currency risks within its control, some dealers said. They said the rules appeared to further clarify trading regulations related to possible gray areas of offshore yuan-linked currency instruments such as NDFs.
人民币升值未能推动外汇机制改革
2006年10月27日07:54大 | 中 | 小
人民币兑美元周四升至一年多来最高水平，并有望进一步上涨，但中国央行(the People's Bank of China)官员重申，短期内可能不会调整人民币交易区间。
中国外汇监管机构表示，将打击离岸市场人民币相关交易，这是中国政府向市场发出的又一政策性警告。
交易商们表示，询价交易市场，美元周四收于人民币7.8959元，低于周三收盘价人民币7.9020元。
他们预计，美元周五将进一步下探人民币7.8900元的支撑位。
美元周四盘中低点为人民币7.8935元，创下自2005年7月份中国政府将人民币兑美元汇率上调2.1%、并放弃事实上钉住美元汇率制度以来的最低水平。
不过，人民币新一轮升值趋势没有促使中国政府扩大人民币日交易区间，部分原因可能是人民币尚未接近突破人民币日交易区间（当日汇率中间价上下0.3%）的水平。
中国央行研究局(Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China)局长唐旭在参加本地举行的一个会议的间隙表示，人民币汇率波动区间现在看来是够用的。
尽管周四的市场走势使美元/人民币摆脱了过去三周的窄幅盘整格局，但人民币0.0003元的日波幅与突破人民币日交易区间还相距甚远。
同时，唐旭认为中国外汇储备构成作出重大调整的可能性不大。截至9月底，中国外汇储备接近1万亿美元，仍居世界第一。
在被问及中国央行如何处理人民币升值对其外汇储备中美元资产造成的影响时，唐旭表示，现在尚未看出中国持有美元储备具有非常明显和巨大的风险。同时指出，目前很难说央行未来是否将外汇储备中的美元计价资产转换为其他类型的资产。
不过，唐旭在会议上提交的署名文章中称，中国的资本控制推动了人民币的升值预期，该政策在一定程度上造成了中国外汇市场的扭曲。
他表示，中国政府应该使国内金融市场与海外市场接轨，这有助于投资者们更好地判断是持有人民币资产还是海外资产。否则，目前的局势将引发针对人民币的过度投机行为。
中国外汇管理局禁止中国企业交易不可交割远期合约
另外，中国国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)新闻处的一位官员向道琼斯透露，中国外汇监管当局已禁止国内的机构和个人参与离岸人民币衍生品交易。
这位不愿透露姓名的官员并未进一步提供细节，但表示该规定将很快对外宣布。
中国国内一家大型银行的交易商表示，其所在银行已经接到了相关通知，他同时指出，这份通知所涉内容主要与离岸市场人民币兑外币的衍生品交易有关。这位交易商拒绝透露姓名。
一些交易商表示，中国政府可能是想通过这项举措，将汇率风险限定在可控制范围之内。他们认为，新规定似乎进一步明确了与处于灰色地带的离岸市场人民币衍生品相关的交易规则，例如不可交割远期合约。
离岸市场美元/人民币不可交割远期合约反映的是人民币未来某段时间的预期价值，但以美元（而非人民币）作为结算。
亚洲交易时段，离岸市场，1年期美元/人民币不可交割远期合约尾盘为7.6440-7.6460元，显示市场预期1年内人民币将升值3%左右。前一交易日1年期美元/人民币不可交割远期合约为7.6545/7.6580元。
J.R. Wu / Tracy Zheng
