克里表弟求低调 只缘身为法国人

Candidate's Cousin Roots in a Low Key; Why? He's French

SAINT-BRIAC, France -- Brice Lalonde, the mayor of this little town in Brittany, flopped in his dark-horse 1981 bid to become president of France, winning just 4% of the vote. This year, he is hoping for a different prize: first cousin of the president of the United States.

Mr. Lalonde is the French-born cousin of John Forbes Kerry of Massachusetts. Their mothers were sisters. On summer days as a 10-year-old in 1956, Brice (pronounced Breece) bicycled here along the rocky coast, went sailing and played capture-the-flag with John, then 12.

Today, the people of Saint-Briac (population 2,000) are excited about the blood tie Mr. Lalonde has with the Democratic nominee for president. And like most Frenchmen, they are rooting for Sen. Kerry to unseat George W. Bush, whom they blame for poisoning Franco-American relations in the dispute over whether to invade Iraq. A recent poll in Le Figaro showed 78% of French adults would vote for Mr. Kerry if they could, compared with 9% for Mr. Bush.


But Mr. Lalonde and his village are also concerned that the French connection might hurt Mr. Kerry's chances of capturing the White House. At Mr. Lalonde's house, the mayor points to articles clipped from U.S. newspapers lying on the mantel. One, from the Boston Globe, details how the Republicans mock Mr. Kerry as an effete snob who "looks French." The article reports that House Majority Leader Tom DeLay started a meeting by quipping: "Good morning, or as John Kerry would say, Bonjour."

So, Mr. Lalonde and others don't want their fondness for Sen. Kerry to show too much. "To live happy, live hidden," says the deputy mayor, Pierre Briard, using an old French expression to explain all the feigned nonchalance.

But curbing enthusiasm is tough for the mayor. In a recent chat at a café in the town square, Mr. Lalonde said his cousin can help repair U.S. relations with France and much of the rest of the world. Then, catching himself in an endorsement, he changed the subject. "What's important is the weather, the tide, the amount of mackerels one can fish today," he said.

But what of the Kerry-for-president sticker on the rear window of Mr. Lalonde's Volvo station wagon? "Well, we do have some JFK stickers on our cars," he admitted.

The Gallic link has been a sensitive subject for the Kerry campaign. The campaign's Web site notes that because his father was a U.S. diplomat, "John Kerry traveled a lot when he was young," but it makes no mention of the French cousin or summer beach holidays in France.

Mr. Lalonde, a short, stocky man of 58, has a ready answer to the Republican accusation that his cousin is a closet Frenchman. "John Kerry does not have French roots," says Mr. Lalonde. "I have American roots."

And he is correct. Mr. Kerry comes from an American family, albeit one with members who settled here. James Grant Forbes, Mr. Kerry's and Mr. Lalonde's common grandfather, was descended from the Brahmin Forbes family of Massachusetts. He went into banking and married Margaret Winthrop in 1906. Her ancestors were Pilgrims. Mr. Forbes was drawn to foreign business and financed railways, coal and steel businesses across the globe. When World War I began in 1914, he was living in Paris and remained in France for most of the rest of his life.

His daughter Rosemary was John Kerry's mother. Rosemary's younger sister, Fiona, is Mr. Lalonde's mother. In World War II, Rosemary fled to the U.S. and married Richard Kerry, John's father. Fiona fled to England. There, she met a French resistance activist, Alain Lalonde, the descendant of a Jewish man named Levy. Alain's father had changed his name to Lalonde, converted to Catholicism and settled in Paris. Brice Lalonde was born in 1946.

In 1923, the Forbes clan bought a Saint-Briac seaside estate, Les Essarts, an imposing mansion overlooking a rugged, rocky coastline. Saint-Briac's seascapes and cobbled lanes bordering 17th and 18th century houses inspired Renoir and other Impressionists. Rich vacationers built stone mansions overlooking the sea. The Forbeses employed a staff of cooks, cleaners and gardeners. "They were the biggest employer in town," says Deputy Mayor Briand, referring to the family. His father was a butler at Les Essarts.

During World War II, the retreating Germans burned down Les Essarts. The Forbeses rebuilt it in a simpler style after the war. Ian Forbes, Rosemary and Fiona's brother, still lives there. These days, the family fortune is much diminished, there are no servants, and 85-year old Ian does much of the upkeep himself.


Like many of the French Forbeses, the spry Mr. Forbes spent most of his life in Europe. He was a professional pilot in Switzerland. He doesn't talk much about his nephew's race for the White House. "We have to be careful to avoid hurting John," he says.

Even some locals mistakenly believe Mr. Kerry is French. "Well, it would be nice to have a president who is a little French," says Denis Warin, owner of a local fancy food shop, standing by rows of Camembert and Roquefort. "If Kerry comes, I'm sure he'll eat some of my cheese."

Mayor Lalonde says he first met his cousin in the 1950s, when the State Department assigned Mr. Kerry's father to Berlin and the family began summering in Saint-Briac. "He was the big American, the leader of our gang," Mr. Lalonde recalls. Mr. Kerry went to Swiss boarding school from 1954 to 1956 before he was sent to complete his high-school education in Massachusetts.

Both men grew up to become politicians running for president of their respective countries. Mr. Lalonde was a leader of the 1968 Paris student revolt, and in the 1970s he helped found the French chapter of Friends of the Earth. He never joined a political party, though the Greens drafted him as their candidate for president in 1981. He served as Minister of Environment in a socialist government from 1988 to 1991.

Mr. Lalonde and his cousin have kept in touch, meeting at events like the Kyoto Summit on Global Warming. Sometimes when Sen. Kerry passes through Paris or Mayor Lalonde passes through Washington, they dine together. If Mr. Kerry becomes president, Mr. Lalonde hopes he will visit here one summer to celebrate the Aug. 16 anniversary of Saint-Briac's liberation by American soldiers in World War II.

This week, despite his concerns about French-baiting, Mr. Lalonde risked a visit to the Democratic National Convention, hobnobbing in Boston with environmental activists and visiting Sen. Kerry's daughters and the Winthrop part of his family there.

He says he was impressed when Teresa Heinz Kerry introduced herself at the convention in Spanish, Italian, French, Portuguese and English. "I'm no longer so afraid," he says. "I thought Teresa was brave to speak out against xenophobia."
克里表弟求低调 只缘身为法国人

布利斯?拉兰德(Brice Lalonde)是法国布列塔尼地区小镇Saint-Briac的镇长，他是1981年法国总统竞选当中的一匹黑马，不过最终他因仅获得4%的选票铩羽而归。今年，他有了一个与上次大不相同的目标：成为美国总统的第一表弟。

拉兰德在法国出生，是美国马萨诸塞州的约翰?福布斯?克里(John Forbes Kerry)的表弟。他们的母亲是亲生姐妹。在1956年的夏天，当时10岁的布利斯与12岁的约翰曾在这个小镇沿著岩石海岸骑自行车玩耍，一道出海航行，玩夺旗游戏。

今天，Saint-Briac的居民（人口数为2,000）对拉兰德与美国民主党总统候选人的血缘关系兴奋不已。像大多数法国人一样，他们支持克里取代布什(George W. Bush)成为美国下一任总统，他们认为布什与法国在是否应该出兵伊拉克问题上的争吵严重损害了两国间的关系。《费加罗报》(Le Figaro)最近进行的一项民意调查显示，有78%的法国成年人表示如果可能他们将投克里一票，而布什的支持率仅为9%。

但是拉兰德和镇上的居民同时也担心克里的这个法国亲戚可能会降低克里入住白宫的机会。在拉兰德的家里，这个镇长指向摆放在壁炉台上的一些美国报纸的节选文章，其中一篇《波士顿环球报》（Boston Globe）的文章绘声绘色的描述了共和党人如何嘲笑克里陈腐而又自命不凡、“看上去像一个法国人”。这篇文章谈道，众议院多数党领袖汤姆?德雷(Tom DeLay)语带讽刺的向大家问候：“早上好，或者如约翰?克里会说的，Bonjour。”

因此，拉兰德和其他人不想让他们对克里的喜好表露太多。副镇长皮尔?布瑞阿德(Pierre Briard)引用了一句法国谚语表达这种表面上的漠不关心，“隐士才会获得真正的快乐”。

但是压制对此事的热衷程度对镇长不是一件容易的事情，最近在城镇广场的一个咖啡店与拉兰德闲聊时，他说他的表兄能够帮助修复美国与法国以及世界其他各国的关系。随即他话锋一转，说道，“现在重要的是今天的天气、风浪和能够钓到的鲭鱼数量。”

但是，在拉兰德的沃尔沃(Volvo)旅行车后窗贴的克里竞选总统的宣传画又作何解呢？他承认：“我们的车上的确有一些JFK的张贴画。”

与法国人之间的联系一直是克里竞选阵营的一个敏感话题。在克里的竞选网站上写著，由于克里的父亲曾是一名美国外交家，“克里在年轻时曾经去过很多地方。”但是网站对克里的这位法国表弟和其曾在法国海滩度过只字未提。

现年58岁的拉兰德身材矮壮，他对民主党指责他表弟是一个潜藏的法国人的说法早已准备好了答案：“约翰?克里没有法国渊源，而我有美国渊源。”

这话没错。克里来自一个美国家族，尽管其中一些人在法国定居。克里和拉兰德的共同外祖父□姆斯?格兰特?福布斯(James Grant Forbes)来自于马萨诸塞州的布拉敏?福布斯(Brahmin Forbes)家族。□姆斯?格兰特?福布斯1906年跨入银行业并娶了玛格丽特?文特劳卜(Margaret Winthrop)。他的祖先是英国清教徒。福布斯涉身外国业务，为全球的铁路、煤炭和钢铁业务提供融资。当1914年第一次世界大战爆发时，他居住在巴黎，并在法国度过了余生的多数时间。

他的女儿罗斯马莉(Rosemary)是约翰?克里的母亲。罗斯马莉的妹妹菲奥纳(Fiona)是拉兰德的母亲。在第二次世界大战期间，罗斯马莉逃到美国并嫁给了理查德?克里(Richard Kerry)，即约翰的父亲。菲奥纳逃到了英国。在那里，她遇到了法国抵抗分子埃伦?拉兰德(Alain Lalonde)，后者是一个名为列维(Levy)的犹太人的后裔。埃伦的父亲将名字改为拉兰德，皈依了天主教，并在巴黎定居。1946年，布利斯?拉兰德出生。

1923年，福布斯家族在Saint-Briac购买了一处海边房产Les Essarts，这是一个气势宏伟的寓所，从房中可俯视崎岖不平、布满岩石的海岸线。Saint-Briac的海景以及17和18世纪建造的房子旁的鹅卵石小路激发了著名画家雷阿诺(Renoir)以及其他印象派画家的灵感。有钱的度假者在海边建起了可俯瞰大海的石质寓所。福布斯家族曾经雇佣了众多的厨师、清洁工和园丁。副镇长布瑞阿德说，“他们一度是镇子上最大的雇主。”布瑞阿德的父亲以前是Les Essarts的管家。

在第二次世界大战期间，撤退的德军烧毁了Les Essarts。福布斯家族在战后将其重新翻建成简约风格的建筑。罗斯马莉和菲奥纳的兄弟伊恩?福布斯(Ian Forbes)至今仍住在那里。近来，由于家族财富大幅缩水，现在那里已没有仆人，85岁的伊恩自己做很大一部分维护工作。

象很多在法国的福布斯家族的人一样，伊恩?福布斯在欧洲度过了大多数时间。他在瑞士曾经是一位职业飞行员。他对他的外甥竞选美国总统言语不多。他说，“我们必须小心翼翼，以免伤害到约翰。”

即使一些当地人也错误的认为克里是法国人。当地一家美食店的店主丹尼斯?沃瑞(Denis Warin)站在一排卡门贝干酪和羊乳奶酪前说：“一个有著那么点法国人血统的人成为美国总统挺不错，如果克里来到这里，我肯定他会吃一点我做的奶酪。”

镇长拉兰德说，他第一次与他的表兄见面是在50年代，那时美国国务院(State Department)派遣克里的父亲到柏林，克里一家在Saint-Briac度过了夏天。拉兰德回忆道，“他是一个个头很大的美国人，是我们这伙人当中的头。”克里在1954年至1956年期间去了一所瑞士寄宿学校，此后他被送回到马萨诸塞州接受高中教育。

两人长大后都走上了仕途，分别竞选他们各自国家的总统。拉兰德是1968年巴黎学生运动的领导者，在70年代，他帮助建立了地球之友(Friends of the Earth)的法国支部。他从未参加过任何一个政党，尽管绿党(Greens)在1981年将他选定为他们的总统候选人。1988年至1991年期间，他在社会党政府担任环境部长。

拉兰德和他的表兄一直保持联络，他们在关于全球气候变暖问题的京都峰会等场合见面。有时，当克里路径巴黎或镇长经过华盛顿时，他们会在一起吃饭。如果克里当选总统，拉兰德希望他将能够在一个夏季访问这里，庆祝Saint-Briac在二次大战中于8月16日被美军解放的纪念日。

本周，尽管担心会授人以柄，但他仍冒险参加了民主党全国代表大会(Democratic National Convention)，在波士顿与环境保护份子举行座谈，并看望了克里的女儿和一些在温恩罗普的亲戚。

他说，特里萨?赫因兹?克里在大会上用西班牙语、意大利语、法语、葡萄牙语及英语介绍她自己给他留下了深刻印象。他说，“我已经没有那么担心了，我认为特里萨勇敢的表达了对排外情绪的抗议。”

克里当选或许对股市有利
Why Some Think a Kerry Win Could Boost the Stock Market

The klieg lights of the media blitz lit up Boston last week at the Democratic National Convention, where John Kerry was given the official candidacy nod.

While it was all smiles for conventioneers, the popular notion is that Mr. Kerry's standing in the polls -- which show him slightly outpacing President Bush, though in a statistical dead heat for the most part -- is a negative on Wall Street, either because of uncertainty over the election's outcome or because Mr. Kerry's policies are perceived as less stimulative to the economy and market.

But as this year's market action has shown, conventional wisdom isn't necessarily, well, wise. Pundits said strong second-quarter earnings would pump up stocks, but the weak outlooks that came with them have pushed indexes down. Traders expected stocks to get a boost when Iraq was declared "over," and that didn't happen.

At the beginning of the year, strategists surveyed by the Online Journal expected a strong first half on Wall Street followed by an anemic second half, with many seeing the Dow industrials rising above 11000 by the end of the year. If the first half, when the Dow industrials slipped 0.2%, was considered strong, watch out for the rest of the year.

So what of the perception that Mr. Kerry is "bad" for the markets? Wall Street could once again be off the mark. Even last week, with Mr. Kerry getting generally positive reviews about his first speech as the official Democratic nominee, the Dow industrials rose 1.2%. And the one trading day after Mr. Kerry spoke? The Dow industrials rose just 0.1% Friday, though rising oil prices throughout the week were dragging on equities.


See a calendar of earnings reports scheduled for the coming week.

See a calendar of economic reports scheduled for the coming week.



The last two times a Democrat has defeated an incumbent Republican -- in 1976 when President Carter beat President Ford, and in 1992, when President Clinton beat President George H.W. Bush -- stocks struggled early in the year but rallied after the election.

"The market has a problem with the possibility of a Democrat winning, but doesn't seem to have a problem with the reality of a Democratic president," says Tom Gallagher, an analyst at economic-research firm International Strategy & Investment in Washington, D.C. Mr. Gallagher also notes that the market tends to do better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans.

Should Mr. Kerry take the election, Washington may well find itself in a state of gridlock, again. In the past, that has been good for the markets, like it was during the Clinton administration. The Congressional makeup is expected to remain much as it is now, and that means two things:

? Proposals from either side are less likely to come to pass, and many feel that a market and economy left to their own devices perform better.

? Policies Wall Street deems unpalatable -- such as Mr. Kerry's proposal to undo tax breaks for those who make more than $200,000 annually -- will have a tough go of it.


"Gridlock means Kerry would not be able to undo the Bush tax cuts, and that's a persistent concern," says Greg Valliere, chief strategist for Schwab's Washington Research Group.

Even if Mr. Kerry were successful in rolling back the tax cuts, it's not necessarily a strike against stocks -- Presidents Reagan and Clinton both took the same measures without damaging the market, though Mr. Reagan was rolling back some of his own administration's earlier tax cuts. Taxpayers who will see their tax liabilities climb under the Kerry proposal aren't likely to yank their money from Wall Street even with higher taxes, analysts say.

The Kerry proposal leaves most taxpayers that would be considered upper middle class feeling better about the Democrats and less worried about how higher taxes might affect their bottom line, contrary to the feelings about past Democratic administrations, says Michael Panzner, head of sales trading at Rabo Securities USA, a unit of the Dutch Rabobank Group. "There's a political sensitivity to it."

Some also take the position that a win for Mr. Kerry could entice back foreign investors, some of whom took issue with President Bush's actions in Iraq and lack of cooperation with allies, as well as deficits that have soared under his watch.

Foreign investors looking for stable investments and more consistent returns often turn to U.S. securities, providing a large chunk of capital to U.S. businesses and government. For instance, foreigners control about 40% of U.S. Treasury debt. And with U.S. interest rates on the rise as the Federal Reserve seeks to manage the pace of economic growth, U.S. investments should become more attractive over time. (To be sure, Fed chair Alan Greenspan is unlikely to steer any other way, regardless of the election's outcome.)

"Because of the United States' dependence on outside interests to finance our twin deficits, to supply a plethora of consumer wares, and to meet our growing energy needs, the greater risk is that foreigners question what is happening with the U.S. -- as well as their own commitments to this country," Mr. Panzner wrote in a note to clients.

Already, foreign investments in the U.S. have been waning, with purchases of securities in May, the latest month of data available, sinking 26% to $56.4 billion. That was lowest monthly total in seven months and the fourth consecutive monthly drop.

Mr. Kerry may be seen as more "conciliatory and consensus-oriented" than his opponent, Mr. Panzner said, and foreigners may be more excited about "lending a helpful hand of support to our markets."

Job growth is another area that has been a nagging problem for Mr. Bush's administration. While employment growth has picked up in recent months, the White House is still facing some historical odds.

A study by Ned Davis Research found that in past years, when employment growth has risen by less than 5% during a presidential term, the incumbent loses. It happened in 1992, when the elder President Bush was ousted by Mr. Clinton. During Mr. Bush's term, nonfarm payrolls grew by 1.8%. Under the younger Bush's watch, nonfarm payrolls have fallen 0.8%.

If he wins, Mr. Kerry will face the same economic conditions in trying to stimulate job growth, and he may be no more successful. He has laid out an ambitious goal of creating 10 million jobs if he's elected.

The surge in attention to the Democratic platform served Mr. Kerry well this week, but as the campaign heats up and the days draw closer to November's decision, analysts will weigh all the competing data and come up with a consensus view of where we're headed.

And as we saw in the first half of the year, whether Mr. Bush wins re-election or not, much of that wisdom may end up seeming, well, unwise.
克里当选或许对股市有利

此起彼伏的闪光灯把上周的民主党波士顿全国大会会场照耀得一片通明，约翰?克里(John Kerry)在此被正式提名为总统候选人。

尽管与会者各个笑逐颜开，但人们普遍认为克里在民意测验微弱领先的支持率对华尔街不利。原因有二：一、这使得总统大选前景不明；二、克里的施政纲领对经济和股市的刺激作用不够明显。尽管克里在民意测验中以微弱优势领先于现任总统布什(Bush)，但在统计过程中他的支持率基本上和布什不分伯仲。

但今年的市场走势表明沿用常规思维方式并不一定明智。权威评论人士称，强劲的第二季度业绩本应提振股市，但一同公布的业绩预期不尽人意导致主要股指下挫。交易员们曾经认为伊拉克战争结束后股市应该走高，但结果是事与愿违。

年初接受《华尔街日报》网络版调查的策略师曾预测，在度过了表现欠佳的去年下半年之后，今年上半年股市应该强劲上扬。许多策略师甚至预测道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数应该在年底之前突破11000点关口。如今时间已经走过一半，道琼斯指数上半年累计下跌0.2%已被看作是强劲的表现，现在就看下半年了。

那么，为什么华尔街会认为克里胜出会不利于股市呢？华尔街恐怕又犯了一个错误。即使油价不断上涨持续拖累股市，上周大盘仍累计上涨了1.2%。而克里获得提名后的首次演讲虽然获得了基本上正面的评价，但第二天道琼斯指数仅上涨了0.1%。

前两次民主党候选人把共和党人赶下总统宝座分别是在1976年和1992年。前一次是卡特(Carter)击败了福特(Ford)，后一次是克林顿(Clinton)打败了老布什(George H.W. Bush)。这两年股市都是先抑后扬，年初时走势疲软，但在大选结果明朗后开始大幅上扬。

总部设在华盛顿的经济研究公司International Strategy & Investment的分析师汤姆?盖勒(Tom Gallagher)说，市场看来不大希望民主党有机会胜出，可一旦民主党人真的获胜也能坦然面对。盖勒指出，民主党人执政期间股市的表现往往好于共和党人执政时期。

一旦克里当选下届总统，国会可能又会出现僵持不下的局面。在过去，这种情况一直对股市有利，例如克林顿时期。参议院和众议院的组成也不会有什么改变。这意味著将有两种情况发生：

*民主党和共和党的提案都会遭到对方的反对，难以通过。许多人都认为，股市和经济依靠自身机制发展会更好。

*华尔街认为克里的政策难以接受。例如，克里在施政报告中提出要取消年收入愈20万美元公民的税收优惠，这恐怕难以实现。

Schwab's Washington Research Group的首席策略师格里高利?瓦利埃尔(Greg Valliere)说，政治上的僵局意味著克里将难以推翻布什政府的减税政策，这会让市场陷入长期忧虑当中。

即使克里成功地推翻了布什的减税政策，那也不一定给股市带来沉重打击。因为已有先例：里根(Reagan)和克林顿政府都取消了减税政策，不同的只是里根取消了一些自己先前推行的减税政策，但两次都没有伤害到股市。而且，即使克里取消了减税政策，那些因为税率上调而导致纳税负担加重的纳税者也不大可能把资金撤离股市。

Rabo Securities USA的销售交易主管迈克尔?潘泽尔(Michael Panzner)说，“克里取消税收优惠政策的做法使得民主党在大部分纳税人（也就是所谓的中上层阶级）中的形象有所提高，至于如果税率提高将对他们的税后收入产生什么样的影响他们并不担心，这一点和以往的民主党政府正好相反。在这一点上，克里显示出了政治手腕。”Rabo Securities USA是Dutch Rabobank Group的子公司。

还有一些人认为克里当选将吸引外资重新流回美国。布什派兵攻打伊拉克、和盟国发生不愉快事件以及执政期间财政赤字激增的做法让一些外国投资者不满。

那些希望进行稳定投资并获得更平稳回报的外国投资者往往把资金投往美国证券市场，为美国的企业界和政府提供了大部分的资金。例如，约40%的美国国债是掌握在外国投资者手中的。随著美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)启动加息周期来调控美国经济增长步伐，投资美国市场将变得更加具有吸引力。当然，无论大选结果如何，Fed主席格林斯潘的位子仍然稳固。

潘泽尔在写给客户的报告中说，美国依靠境外资金来填补财政和预算赤字，依靠贸易伙伴为国内消费者提供了丰富的消费品并满足了国内不断增长的能源需求。但现在，外国投资者开始更加审慎地考虑大选前景，以及是否继续投资美国市场了。

实际上，外国投资者购买美国资产的意愿节节下滑。目前为止最新的数据显示，5月份外资对美国证券的购买额下降了26%，至564亿美元，创下7个月来的最低点，也是连续第四个月下降。

潘泽尔表示，“克里给人的感觉是他比布什更加通融，也更尊重集体意见。克里上任后，外国投资者可能更愿意投资美国证券市场，向我们施以援手。”

就业增长是布什政府遭非议的另一个话题。虽然近几个月来就业市场呈现增长态势，但和以往相比仍有差距。

Ned Davis Research的一项研究发现，回首过去几年的历史，如果一位总统在执政期间的就业增长不到5%，就会在大选中落败。例如，老布什于1992年被克林顿赶出白宫，在他的任期内非农就业人数仅仅增长了1.8%。而小布什本届任期内，非农就业人数更是下降了0.8%。

如果克里当选，他也要面临同样的问题──刺激就业市场增长。尽管他提出了就职后创造1,000万个就业机会的宏伟目标，但他的成就可能不会比布什强到哪去。

人们对民主党施政纲领的日益关注本周抬高了克里的声望，但随著竞争的加剧以及决战的日益临近，分析师们将仔细研读有关竞选的一切数据，并对股市的走势形成普遍看法。

正如我们在今年上半年看到的那样，无论布什能否连任，沿用常规思维方式并不一定明智。