Global-Stock View Swings From Sunny to Gloomy
PARIS -- When faced with an unfavorable environment and declining stock prices, global investors of course can run by selling and putting their money in the bank. But is there anywhere else to hide?
Just a few months ago, several strategists were recommending that investors raise their exposure to global stock markets, convinced that economic growth spurred by the U.S. was taking hold around the world and that companies would post increasingly impressive profits. Now, that has all changed.
Instead, investors face soaring oil prices, rising interest rates, geopolitical instability and stocks that refuse to rally on good earnings news. Oh yes, and investors also are confronted by signs of an economic slowdown. Last week, the U.S. reported dismal payroll data for July. That news followed the previous week's revelation that second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product rose an annualized 3%. Most economists were looking for 3.7%.
And just as economists were hoping U.S. growth would fuel the world, now the prospect of weakness is likely to hamper it by lowering demand for exports from other regions. In Europe, exports to countries outside the euro area account for about 20% of the GDP of the 12-nation euro zone, so weaker U.S. growth spells weaker European growth, says Clive McDonnell, a European equity strategist at Standard & Poor's in London. In Japan, new-vehicle registrations fell for the sixth consecutive month in July and recent declines in household spending are evidence that growth there remains overly dependent on exports.
Adding to the gloom are high oil prices. UBS economists predict that if oil continues to sell for about $45 (�36.80) a barrel for a sustained period, world growth will be half a percentage point lower in 2005 than the 3.5% the bank currently forecasts and a full point weaker in 2006 than otherwise.
As all that sinks in, stock markets world-wide have slumped. "Markets remain stuck in a trading range, the downside limited by [low] valuation and the upside constrained by profit taking and nerves," says Mark Tinker, chief strategist at Execution Ltd. in London.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index has fallen 1.8% this year through Tuesday, while German stocks are off 7.1%, Dutch shares are down 6.6% and the United Kingdom market is off 2.8%, according to MSCI. From its early-March high, the world market has fallen 6.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.9% for the year through Tuesday and is 7.4% off its 2004 high.
Meanwhile, emerging markets have turned. MSCI's Emerging Markets Free index is down 5.2% for the year and down 14% from its mid-April high. The 731 dedicated emerging-market stock funds with $98.4 billion in assets tracked by Cambridge, Mass.-based Emerging Portfolio Fund Research have suffered four consecutive weeks of outflows. Money keeps pouring into Japanese equity funds -- a record $8.7 billion so far this year, according to EPFR. Still, that hasn't stopped the once red-hot Tokyo stock market from stalling. Although they are up 4.5% this year, Japanese shares have lost 8.9% from their mid-April peak.
Is there any place to seek shelter? Michael Belkin, president of Belkin Ltd., a Bainbridge Island, Wash., investment-advisory firm that forecasts financial-market trends, urges shifting out of stocks and into bonds for three to six months. He expects stock markets to return to their late 2002-early 2003 bear-market lows, which translates into declines of 27% for the Dow Jones industrials, 38% for the Nasdaq Composite Index and 41% for Germany's Dax Index from Tuesday's closing levels.
Why bonds? Mr. Belkin acknowledges it is a counterintuitive maneuver in an environment of rising interest rates and surging energy costs, which should be bad for bonds. But he says: "I'm not predicting a wild bull market in government bonds, just a bounce on the capital flight out of equities" as bond prices rise.
Within stock markets, Mr. Belkin advises being defensive by favoring utilities, energy companies, traditional phone companies, construction concerns, financial-service companies -- excluding big banks -- and basic-resource companies over companies in the technology and industrial sectors. "Take advantage of brief stock-market rallies to reduce exposures and adjust asset allocation," he says. "Whether the [predicted] equity-market decline takes days, weeks or months, it's a good idea to be ahead of the thundering herd rather than underneath its hoofs."
In Europe, Karen Olney, a European equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, recommends sectors where analysts are assuming minimal to no growth in earnings per share, thus, "offering less scope for disappointment." Examples include oil, utilities, beverages, insurance, food processing, personal care, U.K. banks and U.K. telecommunications.
Believing that many traditional defensive stocks are already too expensive, European strategists at Credit Suisse First Boston advise looking for stocks with relatively low valuations and little risk of delivering an earnings shock, as well as those that aren't overly dependent on an economic recovery. Companies that fit the bill include Allied Irish Banks, France's Credit Agricole, Belgian phone-operator Belgacom, Dutch bank-insurance concern ING Groep and German steel maker Thyssen Krupp.
投资者急于转攻为守
面对不利的环境和股价的下跌，全球投资者必然会抛出股票，把资金存入银行。但是否还有其他的选择呢？
就在几个月前，还有策略师建议投资者增持全球股票市场的头寸，称美国带动的经济增长将扩散到全球，公司的收益也将随之大幅上扬。现在，一切都发生了变化。
投资者目前面对的情况是油价上涨、利率调高、地缘政治形势动荡，以及股市并未因良好的收益报告而上扬。投资者还要面对经济增长减速的迹象。上周，美国公布了令人失望的7月份就业数据。而在该消息发布的前一周，美国公布第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率增长3%。多数经济学家预计为3.7%。
经济学家原指望美国的经济复苏会推动全球经济增长，但目前疲弱的前景会降低对其他地区出口商品的需求，从而使这一预期无法实现。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)驻伦敦欧洲证券策略师克莱夫?麦克唐奈(Clive McDonnell)说，在欧洲，向欧元区之外国家的出口占欧元区12国GDP的约20%，因此美国经济增长乏力是欧洲增长减缓的先兆。在日本，7月份新车登记数量连续第六个月下降，近期家庭支出的下降也表明其对出口的依赖程度依然很大。
油价上涨使得前景更加黯淡。瑞士银行(UBS)经济学家预计，如果油价持续保持在每桶45美元之上的话，2005年全球经济增长率将比该行目前预计的3.5%低0.5个百分点。
在这种背景下，全球股市表现不振也就不足为奇了。Execution Ltd.驻伦敦的首席策略师马克?廷克(Mark Tinker)说，市场仍在一定的区间内波动，向下受到了估价较低的限制，而向上则面临获利回吐和投资者紧张情绪的压力。
摩根士丹利资本国际公司(Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc., MSCI)称，截至本周二，摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index)今年已下跌了1.8%，德国股市下跌了7.1%，荷兰股市下跌了6.6%，英国股市下跌了2.8%。全球市场已经从3月初的高点下跌了6.3%。截至本周二，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数今年共下跌了4.9%，比2004年的高点下跌了7.4%。
与此同时，新兴市场也风光不再。MSCI新兴市场自由指数今年已下跌了5.2%，比4月中旬的高点则下跌了14%。马萨诸塞州的Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (简称EPFR)所跟踪的731只专门投资新兴市场股票的基金已经连续第四周出现资金外流。这些基金的资产高达984亿美元。据EPFR称，资金持续流入日本的股票基金，今年已经达到创纪录的87亿美元。但这也未能止住一度火爆的日本股市出现疲软的迹象。尽管日本股市今年上涨了4.5%，但却比4月中旬的高点下跌了8.9%。
是否有理想的避险之地呢？华盛顿州投资顾问机构Belkin Ltd.的总裁迈克尔?贝尔金(Michael Belkin)建议将资金撤离股市，投入到债市中3至6个月时间。他预计股市将回到2002年末至2003年初熊市时的低点，这意味著与周二收盘点位相比，道琼斯指数将下跌27%，那斯达克综合指数将下跌38%，德国Dax指数将下跌41%。
为何要选择债券呢？贝尔金承认，在加息和能源成本上涨的大环境下，这是一个违反直觉的做法，因为加息和油价上涨会对债券产生负面影响。但他说，他预计政府债券不会出现大幅飙升，仅会是债券价格走高后，从股市退出的资金流入债市引发的反弹。
对于股市，贝尔金建议采取防御性做法，优先考虑公用事业公司、能源公司、传统电话公司、建筑公司，金融服务公司（但不包括大银行）及基础资源类公司，而远离科技公司及工业公司。
欧洲股市方面，Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein的欧洲证券策略师卡伦?奥尔尼(Karen Olney)建议选择分析师认为每股收益不会增长或仅略有增长的类股，这样，得到的失望也就更少。这其中包括石油、公用事业、饮料、保险、食品加工、个人保健、英国的银行及电信类股。
瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)的欧洲策略师认为，多数传统防御类股的股价已经过高，他们建议寻找股价相对较低，业绩滑坡风险不大的股票，以及那些不过于依赖于经济复苏的股票。符合上述标准的公司包括爱尔兰联合银行(Allied Irish Banks PLC, AIB)、法国农业信贷集团(Credit Agricole)和比利时电话运营商Belgacom。
