Chipmakers are trying to see the light
When Hsu Chun-hwa, vice-president of Taiwanese flat-panel maker Chi Mei Opto-electronics, was pressed by investors last week to give a clear picture of where the technology industry was heading, he took refuge in enigmatic language with an almost biblical tone: “Everybody is stumbling around in darkness and there is no light whatsoever.”
Almost across the board, Taiwanese technology companies reported record second-quarter results. TSMC and UMC, the world's top two contract chipmakers, on Monday reported record July sales.
But some manufacturers have given a mixed outlook for the rest of the year, expressing concerns over rising inventories and weakening pricing power.
Sentiment in the stock market has been generally negative, with technology shares falling steadily since the beginning of 2004 on global macroeconomic concerns.
However, the range of analyst views is broad. Merrill Lynch, which believes the technology cycle has peaked, gave the semiconductor industry a heavy downgrade last month. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets is more bullish, arguing that it is far too early for a mid-cycle correction.
Forecasts for 2005 global chip sector revenue range from 10 per cent growth, expected by CLSA, to a 3 per cent contraction, predicted by Arizona-based IC Insights.
A closer look reveals that the key element of uncertainty is not the risk of a sectoral slump but the fact that the semiconductor industry is effectively maturing.
Most executives and analysts agree that demand for chips, rather than falling off a cliff, is settling into more moderate patterns than in past cycles.
“There is a very big disconnect between the market and the industry's fundamentals,” says Rick Hsu, semiconductor analyst at Nomura in Taipei. He adds that investors are overly nervous about a return to 2000, when the last chip boom turned into bust.
While inventories at leading global chip groups rose from slightly over 70 days in the fourth quarter of 2003 to 77 days in the three months to June, they are well off historical highs.
The inventory profile also differs widely depending on product segment, with high stocks of chips for DVD players and PC chipsets, but under-supply for some telecoms applications.
Moreover, competitors within certain product segments appear to experience inventory build-up to varying extents. “Some Asian IC designers were caught by surprise by price cuts by US competitors with newer devices,” says Cheng Ming-kai, head of technology research at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.
The supply side also shows a totally different picture from four years ago. While chipmakers increased capacity by 40 per cent in 2000, the rise this year is set to be just over 20 per cent, with further growth of 27-28 per cent in 2005.
Mr Cheng does not expect capacity utilisation rates to fall until next year. And even then, they will gradually ease to about 85 per cent rather than collapsing to less than 50 per cent as in the last cycle, he says.
The key to this optimistic scenario is demand, which has been one of the main concerns for investors. Demand would have to fall at least 30 per cent for the chip industry to contract next year, according to CLSA. However, while semiconductor sales in the past were inextricably linked to demand for one item personal computers there is no longer any single product that could have a similar influence.
The newer markets for chips, such as PC notebooks, wireless applications and flat-panel displays, are more diverse but smaller in their absolute size.
Some analysts believe the new demand patterns may further expose the industry to the impact of a global growth downturn.
As semiconductor usage becomes increasingly diffuse, the search for the next “killer application” will become more futile, Joseph Osha, global semiconductor analyst at Merrill Lynch, wrote recently. In the meantime, technical developments in chipmaking may also help to stabilise the industry. As the time needed to make a semiconductor increases with the level of production technology employed, the cycle will also get longer and less vulnerable to sudden disruptions, argues Mr Cheng.
The emergence of more contract chipmakers, especially in China, may also provide a capacity buffer in times of tight supply, promising steadier cycles for established players.
Whether or not these larger structural changes improve visibility in the industry remains to be seen. Executives like Mr Hsu of Chi Mei may be searching in the dark for some time.
全球芯片业前景未卜
上周，当投资者要求台湾平板屏幕制造商――奇美光电子集团的副总裁许君华（音译）对科技业前景作出清晰的预测时，他用高深莫测的语言作搪塞，好像在背诵圣经：“人人都在黑暗中摸爬滚打，还没看见曙光。”
几乎所有台湾科技公司发布的第二季销售业绩均达到历史最高水平。昨天，全球最大两家合同芯片制造商台积电(TSMC)和联华电子(UMC)公布的7月份销售业绩也刷新了历史纪录。
但是，有些制造商对下半年的前景喜忧参半，对存货的增加和定价能力的削弱表示担忧。
股票市场总体状况不容乐观。自2004年伊始，由于对全球宏观经济走势的担忧，科技股持续下滑。
然而，分析师说法不一。美林证券(Merrill Lynch)上周认为，科技周期已达顶峰，故将半导体业股票的等级大大降低。里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)则较为乐观，他们认为，周期期中回落还为时尚早。
对于2005年全球芯片业收益的预测也迥然不同：里昂证券预计会有10%的增长，而总部位于亚利桑那州的IC Insights预测收益将紧缩3%。
如果更仔细地分析芯片业一定不难发现，这种不确定性的关键因素并不在于一个行业低潮期所存在的风险，而是在于这个行业实际上正日趋成熟。
大多数管理高层和分析家一致认为，与过去的发展周期相比，芯片需求并不会一落千丈，而是逐步进入一个更为稳健的发展模式。
“芯片市场已远远脱离了该行业的基本要素，” 野村证券(Nomura)驻台北的半导体业分析师Rick Hsu表示。他补充说，2000年，繁荣的芯片市场阴云突现，投资者因而极度担心历史将会重演。
尽管全球最大几家芯片集团的存货天数从去年第四季的71天左右增加到今年第二季的77天，但远远没有达到历史最高水平。而且，每个公司的存货情况也因产品部门的不同而存在很大差异。DVD播放机芯片和个人计算机芯片组的存货很多，但一些电信应用软件的芯片供给不足。
此外，在某些产品部门中，竞争者存货积聚的程度似乎也不尽相同。里昂证券亚太市场技术研究部负责人郑铭基（音译）说：“对美国竞争对手减低新设备价格，一些亚洲集成电路设计者感到惊讶”。供方的情况也与4年前完全不同。尽管2000年芯片商的生产能力增长了40%，但今年的增幅将仅略高于20%，2005年将进一步增长27到28%。
郑先生预计，要等到明年，生产能力利用率才会下降。而且他表示，即使到那时，利用率将逐渐回落到85%左右，而不会像上个周期那样，骤降至50%以下。
这种乐观设想的关键在于需求，而这也是投资者关心的主要问题之一。里昂证券称，明年芯片业要收缩业务，前提是需求必须至少降低30%。然而，尽管过去半导体的销量无可避免地与某一产品（即个人电脑）联系在一起，但现在已没有任何一种产品具备类似的影响力。
新的芯片业市场呈现多样化的局面，例如个人笔记本电脑，无线应用软件和平板显示器等，但它们的绝对规模相对较小。
一些分析人士相信，新的需求模式可能会使芯片业更容易受到全球经济增长放缓的影响。
最近，美林证券的全球半导体产业分析师约瑟夫?奥沙(Joseph Osha)撰文指出，随着半导体使用的日益广泛，寻找下一个“杀手软件”(“killer application”)将变得更加徒劳无益。与此同时，芯片制造业的技术发展也将对该行业的稳定有所帮助。郑先生认为，随着生产技术水平的提高，半导体的制造时间增加，其发展周期将变得更长，也更不容易受到市场突变的影响。
更多的合约芯片制造商的涌现，特别是在中国，可能也会在芯片供不应求时对生产能力起缓冲作用，确保资深芯片制造商的发展周期更加稳定。
这些更大的结构变化是否能增强芯片业的可见度尚不得知。包括奇美许先生在内的管理高层可能还要在黑暗中摸索一段时间。
