China Boom Boosts Aluminum Makers
Stocks in aluminum companies, unlike the beverage cans they make, are proving difficult to crush.
That is largely because of the way these companies are positioned to play China's booming market to their advantage. Chinese demand for aluminum is growing and the country is limited in its ability to produce the metal, including lacking the vast amounts of cheap power needed to fuel more smelters. And while U.S. steel companies and other producers worry about a glut of metals coming out of China, the aluminum makers don't have to fret about that.
As with steel, global aluminum supplies remain tight as demand grows stronger in China and elsewhere. While the price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange has fluctuated around $1,700 a metric ton, or 77 cents a pound, for the past few months, analysts see prices ratcheting up over the next year. With inventories falling rapidly on the LME to less than 830,000 metric tons, aluminum prices -- already at nine-year highs -- could rise to an average of $1,940 per metric ton in 2005, predicts Lloyd O'Carroll, chief economist and aluminum analyst with BB&T Capital Markets in Richmond, Va.
Analysts say if the trends continue, the major aluminum companies, especially Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Inc. and Montreal-based AlcanInc., could keep smelting profits for shareholders for at least the next two years.
There are several key differences between the steel and aluminum industries that make China "a plus for aluminum even though it is a minus for steel at the moment," says Mr. O'Carroll, who owns shares of Alcoa, but not Alcan. China gobbles up about 20% of the 30 million metric tons of aluminum consumed globally each year and is nearing the amount that the U.S. consumes. Meanwhile, China uses about 30% of the nearly one billion metric tons of steel consumed each year, three times what the U.S. consumes.
But more than half of the steel in China is used in construction, which often bears the brunt of government-induced economic downturns. By contrast, only 20% of aluminum is used for building projects, while a larger portion of it is turned into high-voltage electrical cable used to expand the power grid. That means aluminum demand will remain constant with infrastructure projects. The Chinese are expected to consume about 5.9 million metric tons of aluminum this year, up 14% from 2003.
China currently has about 137 aluminum smelters, but many of the smaller, inefficient smelters are being phased out. Analysts predict the country will need to add about 40 large smelters by 2014, but will have difficulty doing that given a shortage of electrical power at an affordable price in the country.
Alcoa and Alcan, which both reported big profits in the second quarter and control the majority of the world's market for both alumina and aluminum, are also getting their toes into China's fast-growing market much more readily than U.S.-based steel companies. Alcoa owns an 8% stake in Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chalco. Since the early 1990s, Alcoa has set up at least eight companies or joint ventures making fasteners, foil, auto parts and construction products in several cities throughout China.
Alcan has launched a similar joint venture with the Qingtonxia Aluminum Co. and the Ningxia Electric Power Development & Investment Co. for a 50% share in a smelter. And the company believes China won't flood the world with exports. In China, "the drivers of increasing demand appear to be more sustainable than those of supply," Dick Evans, executive vice president of Alcan, told investors this spring.
The ventures should help the North American companies benefit from exploding demand in China for consumer products such as tin foil, beverage cans and air conditioners. "The place for growth is in these fast-growing markets," said Jim Southwood, president of Commodity Metal Management Co., a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. "These companies made a good decision of who to partner with."
And while China maintains certain advantages such as lower labor costs, the cost and availability of electrical power is increasingly driving the aluminum business around the world and has become a disadvantage for China. Last year, it cost $33.20 per megawatt hour to run a smelter in China, compared with $22.90 a megawatt hour in the U.S. and $10 per megawatt hour in Russia, according to research group CRU International.
Meanwhile, Alcan and Alcoa continue to strengthen their global reach and control of raw-material supplies such as bauxite and alumina, which are refined and smelted to make aluminum. Alcoa's operations in Australia, for example, sell large amounts of alumina to China. And that is translating into steady growth.
The stock price for both Alcan and Alcoa has fluctuated between $20 and $50 for the past four years. Alcoa closed on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday at a midrange $30.33 a share, giving it a market value of $26 billion. Many of the large institutional investors and mutual funds sold off holdings earlier this year. But more analysts have put buy ratings on the stock in the past three months, with the majority predicting a rise to a $42 target.
Alcan, meanwhile, closed a bit higher at $39.80 with a market cap of $14.4 billion, but most analysts are still recommending "hold" or "buy" and predict the stock could go above $50 per share. The company is still sorting out integration details from its $5.08 billion acquisition late last year of French aluminum maker Pechiney SA, making Alcan the world's No. 2 aluminum producer after Alcoa.
To be sure, aluminum makers face potential stumbling blocks. Alcan has the task of integrating its acquisition of Pechiney. And Alcoa could get hurt if labor problems in North America -- there is currently a strike at a smelter in Quebec -- spread to more locations. But most observers still conclude the outlook is positive, because even when some smelter production is curtailed, the resulting short supply causes prices to rise. But "if this labor situation were to get ugly and the ugly moved to other plants," the consultant Mr. Southwood says, "at Alcoa, they'd be singing the blues."
铝业公司从中国的旺盛需求中受益
事实证明，铝业公司的股票可不像它们生产的饮料罐那样容易被毁掉。
这主要是因为这些公司从中国欣欣向荣的市场中大受裨益。中国对铝的需求正在不断增长，而且其铝生产能力十分有限，包括缺乏运行更多冶炼厂所需的廉价电力。在美国钢铁公司和其它生产商担心中国将有大量金属产品涌向全球市场时，铝生产商们对此并无担忧。
和钢铁一样，中国和其它地区需求的增长使得全球的铝供应仍显紧张。在过去几个月中，伦敦金属交易所的铝期货价格在每吨1,700美元左右徘徊，合每磅77美分。分析师预计，铝价明年将继续走高。BB&T Capital Markets的首席经济学家、铝业分析师俄卡罗(Lloyd O'Carroll)预计，由于伦敦金属交易所库存骤降至83万吨，已经触及9年高点的铝价2005年可能进一步升至平均每吨1,940美元的水平。
分析师说，如果这一趋势继续下去，主要铝业公司，尤其是位于匹兹堡的美国铝业(Alcoa Inc.)和蒙特利尔的阿尔坎铝业(Alcan Inc.)，至少在今后两年内会持续给股东带来回报。
俄卡罗说，钢铁和铝行业之间存在一些重大差别，使得在中国需求给钢铁业带来负面影响的同时对铝行业却是一大促进。他持有美国铝业的股票，但不持有阿尔坎铝业的股票。
在全球每年3,000万吨的铝消耗量中，中国占到20%左右，接近美国的水平。同时，中国在近10亿吨的全球钢铁年消耗量中占大约30%，相当于美国的三倍。
但是，中国一半以上的钢铁用于建筑业，而该行业常常因政府政策带来的经济下滑而首先受到冲击。与之相反，只有20%的铝消耗在建设项目中，更大一部分变成了用于扩大电网的高压电缆。这就意味着铝的需求基本不受基建项目的影响。预计中国今年的铝消耗量约为590万吨，较2003年增长14%。
中国目前拥有大约137家铝冶炼厂，但是其中许多规模较小、效率低下的冶炼厂正在逐渐停产。分析师预计，到2014年，中国需要新增约40家大型冶炼厂。但是，鉴于国内廉价电力供应短缺，这一目标恐怕难以实现。
美国铝业和阿尔坎铝业均公布第二季度实现可观利润，它们控制着全球大部分氧化铝和铝市场。
这两家公司还比美国的钢铁公司先行一步踏入中国迅速增长的市场。美国铝业持有中国铝业(Aluminum Corp., Chalco)8%的股份。自上世纪90年代初以来，美国铝业在中国部分城市建立了至少8家公司或合资企业，生产扣件、铝箔、汽车零部件和建筑产品。
阿尔坎铝业和青铜峡铝业公司(Qingtonxia Aluminum Co.)、宁夏电力开发及投资有限公司(Ningxia Electric Power Development & Investment Co.)组建了合资企业，将在一家冶炼厂中拥有一半股份。公司认为，中国的铝产品不会大量涌向国际市场。阿尔坎铝业的执行副总裁伊万斯(Dick Evans)今年春季向投资者表示，在中国，推动需求增长的因素似乎比供应方面的驱动力更持久。
这些合资企业的组建应当会使北美企业从中国对锡纸、饮料罐、空调等消费品需求的爆炸式增长中受益匪浅。匹兹堡咨询公司Commodity Metal Management Co.总裁萨斯伍德(Jim Southwood)称，真正的增长空间来自于这些迅速发展的市场。这些公司在选择合作伙伴上都作出了正确的决定。
虽然中国仍保留着劳动力成本低等某些优势，但电力成本的高昂和供应能力的限制越发变成了中国的一个劣势，反而推动了全球铝业的发展。研究公司CRU International的数据显示，去年，在中国运营一家冶炼厂的电力成本为每兆瓦小时33.20美元，而在美国和俄罗斯分别为22.90和10美元。
同时，美国铝业和阿尔坎铝业继续巩固它们在全球市场的地位，控制了铝矾土和氧化铝等原材料供应。例如，美国铝业的澳大利亚子公司向中国的氧化铝出口保持稳定增长态势。
过去4年中，这两家公司的股价都在20至50美元之间波动。美国铝业昨日收于30.33美元，市值为260亿美元。今年年初，许多大型机构投资者和共同基金曾抛售它们的持股，但是更多分析师在过去3个月中将该股的评级定为买进，大多数人预计该股将涨至42美元的目标价位。
阿尔坎铝业昨日收于39.80美元，市值144亿美元。但是，多数分析师仍建议“持有”或“买进”，并预计该股可能突破50美元。该公司去年末以50.8亿美元收购法国同行Pechiney SA，目前正在制定整合细节，该交易使阿尔坎铝业成为仅次于美国铝业的全球第二大铝生产商。
毫无疑问，铝生产商面临潜在的发展障碍。阿尔坎铝业对 Pechiney整合的任务繁重。而如果北美地区的劳资纠纷（眼下魁北克的一家冶炼厂正在进行罢工）蔓延到更多地区，美国铝业可能也会受损。
但是，多数观察人士仍认为前景是光明的，因为即使一些冶炼厂的生产被削减，随之而来的供应短缺也会导致价格上涨。但是，萨斯伍德说，如果劳资纠纷愈演愈烈，蔓延到其它工厂，美国铝业可能会受到影响。
