Asia DRAM Report: SMIC Leaps Hurdles To New China Plant
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMI) opened China's first advanced, 12-inch computer memory chip factory over the weekend, overcoming hurdles in a significant milestone for the mainland's budding semiconductor industry. Merrill Lynch analyst Dan Heyler, in a Monday research report, called the opening of the chip factory a 'historic day for Chinese semis.' 'China's stop-and-start efforts to build a meaningful semiconductor industry over the past 20 years have reached a turning point, thanks to SMIC's impressive capacity ramp,' he wrote. The new China chip factory raises the stakes in a volatile dynamic random access memory chip industry in which chipmakers race to upgrade their technology in order to survive and prosper - or perish. SMIC, China's biggest foundry, is listed in Hong Kong and New York. Around 20%-25% of its revenue comes from DRAM, while custom-made chips account for the remainder. Analysts in the main don't view SMIC as a threat to well-established DRAM industry leaders like South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.SE). Instead, they say the technological advances at the new plant highlight the growing threat SMIC and other Chinese chipmakers pose to major contract chipmakers in Taiwan and Singapore. SMIC's new chip factory brings expensive, cutting-edge technology to China for the first time - technology previously unobtainable from developed countries due to government concerns over military applications. The export of semiconductor production equipment and know-how to China has long been closely monitored by regulators in developed countries in Europe, the U.S. and Japan because chip technology is used in a range of weapons, from guided missiles to Humvees. As such, SMIC officials had to work hard to obtain export licenses for every piece of equipment for the new plant, located in Beijing. 'We had to assure the governments in Europe, the U.S. and Japan that we will never use this equipment to produce defense-related products,' said Jimmy Lai, head of investor relations at SMIC. Donald Lu, chip analyst at Goldman Sachs in Taipei said in a recent research note that SMIC could become the world's third-largest contract chipmaker by the end of the year, edging out Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. (CHRT). In the process, SMIC will likely give the world's two biggest foundries - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) and United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) - some competition. 'In general, SMIC has made very exceptional progress since its inception to catch up with TSMC and UMC, and will likely take over Chartered('s ranking) in the fourth quarter,' he said in the report. Fast Progress In Short Span Of Time SMIC has built up an admirable level of advanced semiconductor production technology in the short time since it opened its first chip plant in Shanghai in November 2001, riding on technology tie-ups and business savvy. But its progress this far, this fast, has led some of its rivals to cry foul. Last year, TSMC alleged that SMIC stole some of its key production technology, and filed suit in the U.S. SMIC has denied the claims. SMIC's new 12-inch plant, which can produce chips for about one-third less than the current mainstream eight-inch factories, comes without the controversy over patent rights. The plant was built with help from chipmakers Infineon Technologies AG (IFX) of Germany and Japan's Elpida Memory Inc., based on a business strategy that spreads the heavy cost - about US$2.2 billion for a 12-inch memory chip plant - between the partners. SMIC has begun pilot production at its new chip plant and expects to ship its first batch of chips to customers by the end of the year. Infineon should start receiving around 3,000 to 4,000 silicon wafers a month by the end of this year from SMIC's new plant, with thousands of chips etched on each wafer. According to SMIC's Lai, the company is targeting output of around 15,000 wafers a month for commodity memory chip products and 5,000 wafers a month for logic products by end-2005 - though DRAM prices will be key to determining how fast the company increases production at the new plant. DRAM chip prices are extremely volatile. The daily spot price of the most widely used chips, 256-megabit double data rate chips that run at 400 megahertz, was last quoted at US$4.68 on Monday, according to DRAMeXchange, an online clearinghouse for DRAM chips. This year, the DDR-400 price has fluctuated from a January low of US$3.77 to an April high of US$6.55. The ability for making logic chips is a vital plus for SMIC. There is a big difference in terms of function and price between memory chips and logic chips. Logic chips command far higher premiums. Lai said his company will begin producing (logic) communications chips on the larger wafers using tiny 90-nanometer production technology by the third quarter of 2005, moving SMIC ever closer to the big-league players against Taiwan's foundry giants. A chip's transistor components and the spaces between them are measured in nanometers. The smaller and more closely transistors can be packed together, the more powerful the chip. The smaller production technology also commands higher profit margins, which is significant as the foundry business model matures and margins continue to narrow. At least four of TSMC's major customers have announced they will use 90-nanometer production technology on 12-inch wafers. TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, has said its installed 12-inch capacity will reach around 23,000 wafers a month in the third quarter of this year. That's still far ahead of SMIC, but the Chinese chipmaker is closing the gap fast, considering it's fairly new in the business. Table Of Average Weekly DRAM Spot Prices 27 Sept 20 Sep 13 Sep 6 Sep 30 Aug 128Mb SDRAM - $3.94 $4.01 $4.01 $4.07 $4.09 256Mb SDRAM - $4.43 $4.36 $4.30 $4.35 $4.37 128Mb DDR-266 - $3.02 $3.01 $2.98 $2.99 $3.02 128Mb DDR-333 - $3.12 $3.12 $3.07 $3.08 $3.12 256Mb DDR-266 - $4.25 $4.17 $3.90 $3.96 $4.09 256Mb DDR-333 - $4.36 $4.27 $4.10 $4.21 $4.29 256Mb DDR-400- $4.57 $4.49 $4.32 $4.41 $4.43
Sources - brokers, module makers, DRAMeXchange Note: Prices in this table represent the average for the entire week, not for a single day.
特写：中芯国际12英寸新厂开工
上周末，中芯国际(Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., SMI)在中国率先兴建的12英寸晶片生产厂开工，跨越了大陆新兴半导体行业面临的巨大障碍，同时也奠定了一块里程碑。 美林(Merrill Lynch)分析师丹．海勒(Dan Heyler)在周一发表的研究报告中称，这家晶片生产厂开工的这一天是“中国半导体行业具有历史意义的日子”。 他写道，20年来中国半导体行业的发展走走停停，终于在中芯国际这次大规模生产升级的带动下走到了一个转折点。 这家工厂的开工让动态随机存储器(DRAM)晶片行业的竞争变得更加激烈。在DRAM这个动荡频繁的领域内，生产企业不进则退，它们竞相升级技术，确保生存谋求发展。 作为大陆规模最大的晶片生产商，中芯国际已在香港和纽约上市，公司收入的20%-25%来自DRAM晶片，其余为定制晶片。 但是，分析师们大都认为中芯国际此举不会给诸多已经打下稳固基础的DRAM领先企业构成威胁，例如韩国的叁星电子(Samsung Electronics Co., 005930.SE)。但是，对台湾和新加坡的主要合约晶片生产商来说，中芯国际新工厂的技术进步是个重大威胁。 这家新工厂将昂贵而先进的生产技术第一次带入中国大陆。以前，发达国家担心这项先进技术会被用于武器生产，所以发展中国家一直得不到。 欧洲、美国和日本等发达国家政府长期以来一直严密监控着半导体生产设备及专业知识对中国的出口，因为晶片生产技术可以用于从制导导弹到高机动多用途车等诸多武器的生产。 因此，为了兴建这座位于北京的新工厂，中芯国际为每一项设备的进口许可都作出了诸多努力。 “我们不得不说服欧洲各国、美国和日本政府，表明我们不会把这项设备用于武器相关产品的生产，”中芯国际投资者关系部主管Jimmy Lai如是说。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)驻台北的晶片业分析师Donald Lu在最近发表的研究报告中表示，预计年底前中芯国际就可超越新加坡的特许半导体(Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd., CHRT)，成为全球第叁大合约晶片生产商。 在前进过程中，中芯国际有望给前两大生产商――台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., TSM, 简称：台积电）和联华电子(United Microelectronics Corp., UMC)带来一些竞争压力。 他在报告中称，“总的来说，中芯国际从开始追??台积电和联华电子以来，已经取得了很大进步，很有可能在第四季度超越特许半导体。” 短期内的巨大进步 2001年11月，中芯国际第一家晶片生产厂在上海开业。从那时开始至今的短短几年内，凭藉着技术联合和商业头脑，中芯国际的晶片生产技术实现了巨大飞跃。但如此快速巨大的进步让一些竞争对手指责公司违反了从业规则。 去年，台积电在美国提起诉讼，指控中芯国际偷窃了一些关键的生产技术。中芯国际予以否认。 中芯国际新开工的这家12英寸晶片生产厂的产品，会比主流的8英寸技术的产品小叁分之一。这项技术并未引发专利权纠纷。 这家工厂是在中芯国际两家合作夥伴的帮助下兴建的，分别是德国的英飞凌科技公司(Infineon Technologies AG, IFX)和日本的Elpida Memory Inc.。根据业务发展策略，这两家合作夥伴承担了这家工厂的大量兴建成本，约为22亿美元。 工厂已经开始试生产，预计第一批产品在年底前发货。 年底前，英飞凌科技公司就可以从这家工厂每月得到3,000-4,000件晶圆，每片晶圆上都会有数千枚晶片诞生。 中芯国际的投资者关系部门主管表示，该公司2005年年底前的生产目标是，每月生产大约15,000件存储晶片产品，和5,000件晶圆。不过，DRAM价格是公司决定增加产量的主要考虑因素。 DRAM晶片的价格常常大幅波动。网上晶片交易机构DRAMeXchange的数据显示，周一DDR-400现货价格为4.68美元。 今年，DDR-400的价格曾于1月份跌至3.77美元低点，高点为4月份创出的6.55美元。 能够生产逻辑晶片对中芯国际来说将至一个重要进步。逻辑晶片和存储晶片的功能以及价格都有很大差异，逻辑晶片的价格高很多。 中芯国际的投资者关系部门主管表示，公司计划从2005年第叁季度开始用90纳米技术生产（逻辑）通讯晶片，进一步缩小与台湾晶片生产巨头们的距离。 晶片上晶体管的大小和晶体管之间的距离用纳米衡量，距离越小，晶体管越小，晶片的功能就越强大。 生产技术越高，产品利润率也越高。这在晶片生产模式日渐成熟，利润率收窄之际，就显得越来越重要。 至少已有四位中芯国际的客户表示，他们会使用12英寸晶圆90纳米技术的产品。 台积电是全球最大的合约晶片生产商，今年第叁季度12英寸晶圆产量为23,000件。 这远远超过中芯国际的水平，但考虑到后者刚刚起步，中芯国际缩小差距的速度很快。
