Stormy Stocks
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Wall Street often snickers at companies that routinely blame lousy sales on bad weather -- as if Americans are ever too cold, too hot, too wet or too whatever to shop.
But after hurricanes Charley and Frances ripped through Florida, and well-known names like Federated Department Stores and restaurant-chain operator Brinker International said customers stayed away in droves, company warnings about lower profit targets weren't as funny.
Only a week after Frances petered out, Hurricane Ivan is on its way. The storm, recently upgraded to a brutish Category 5 level, could descend on Florida by Wednesday. The tourism industry's exposure is well documented: JetBlue Airways, Walt Disney and the cruise operator Carnival all have warned the hurricanes will shave a penny or more off quarterly earnings.
But less-flashy businesses like retailers, restaurants and department stores -- some with surprisingly large footprints in Florida -- are feeling a pinch as well, thanks to evacuations, power outages and what analysts like to call the "CNN effect" -- people hunkered down at home and glued to the TV.
See a calendar of earnings reports scheduled for the coming week.
See a calendar of economic reports scheduled for the coming week.
A lot depends on the types of products sold. Discount stores have seen a boost from Floridians stocking up on food and survival items. But clothing retailers and department stores missed out on crucial back-to-school spending that typically kicks off with Labor Day weekend. Talk about unfortunate timing.
"We would expect the department stores that promoted during the holiday weekend and have significant exposure to Florida … to suffer the most," Katherine Galligan, an analyst at equity-research and trading firm Aperion Group in Dallas, wrote in a research note last week.
Tops on her list is Neiman Marcus, which has a sizable 16% of its store base in Florida, according to Aperion.
The Dallas-based luxury retailer shut down six of its namesake stores for three and a half days during Frances; Ms. Galligan estimates the storms will wipe out one to two cents a share in earnings for the quarter. Analysts predicted earnings of $1.27 a share. She has a "hold" rating on the stock, with a price target of $65. Shares closed Friday at $55.80. For the week, the stock was up 2.1%.
Federated also expects the hurricanes to scatter its bottom line. The New York company, which owns Bloomingdale's and Macy's, has 15% of its store base in Florida, according to Deutsche Bank. Federated said it lost $20 million in business from store closings during Frances and expects profit for the quarter ending Oct. 30 to be reduced by three to four cents a share. It had projected quarterly earnings of 35 to 40 cents a share.
Restaurant chains and smaller companies with strong Florida roots also suffered the effects of the storm. Houston-based Landry's Restaurants Inc. on Friday estimated lost revenue from Frances at $1.8 million to $2.2 million, mostly from lost business. The Pantry, a Sanford, N.C., convenience-store operator with almost a third of its 1,367 stores in Florida, scrapped an investor conference to assess the damage from the hurricanes and prepare for Ivan.
Brinker -- owner of Chili's, Romano's Macaroni Grill and other properties -- cut its fiscal first-quarter and 2005 earnings outlook, and shares fell 3.9% on Friday. Analysts estimate about 10% of Brinker's holdings are in Florida. The Dallas-based company said Charley erased about 0.5% in same-store sales in August; Frances likely subtracted 1%. For the week, the stock fell 2.6%.
All this doesn't necessarily mean investors should be scared off from stocks affected by the storms. In fact, temporary weakness caused by short-term sellers could present a buying opportunity for an otherwise solid investment. For most companies, the effects of the hurricanes are a blip on balance sheets.
"It's somewhere between noise and immaterial," says Peter Oakes, senior research analyst at PiperJaffray in New York. He has a "market perform" rating on Brinker, which he says has "brand-specific struggles" that go beyond storms. "People look at this as one time in nature. Is it going to permanently affect their earnings stream down the road? No," he says. He doesn't own the stock and Brinker is not an investment-banking client of PiperJaffray.
Despite the nearly 10% drop in Federated's quarterly estimates, Deutsche Bank analyst Bill Dreher still has a "buy" rating on the stock, with a price target of $55. He says the valuation remains compelling at about 12 times his forward earnings estimates -- a discount to the industry average of 15 times. The stock closed Friday at $44.97, down 0.7% for the week. Deutsche Bank has done investment banking for the company and the bank said the analyst or a member of his household owns Federated stock.
Another company with a strong presence in Florida is Advance Auto Parts, of Roanoke, Va. It is the second-biggest auto-parts retailer in the country, and has 17% of its stores in Florida, according to independent investment boutique Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer cut its third-quarter earnings estimate to 68 cents from 70 cents a share and also revised its full-year estimate downward by two cents to $2.52 a share.
But analysts are still bullish on the stock. Even though the "biggest one yet" -- Hurricane Ivan -- could again temporarily derail sales, Oppenheimer has a "buy" rating and a price target of $42 on the stock, which closed Friday at $36.22, down 3.3% for the week. Cid Wilson, analyst for Consumer Research Group, a division of Whitaker Securities, said in a note Tuesday he is bullish on the stock and that any weakness in the price would be a buying opportunity.
"This is a macro-impact and not a sign of a slowdown due to [company]-specific issues, and sales should return in October," he said, adding that he has an even higher price target of $55 on the shares.
In other words, as big as these storms look on the Weather Channel, hurricanes aren't likely to make more than a ripple in stock prices of companies temporarily feeling the pain in Florida.
飓风袭击波及公司股价
每当有公司将销售业绩不佳归罪于坏天气时，华尔街就忍不住窃笑：看那些公司的意思，好像美国的天气对于购物的人们来说，不是太冷、就是太热、或者太潮湿，或者别的什么问题，总之，很少有合适的时候。
不过，这一次，一些企业在收益预警里抱怨天气就没那么可笑了。在飓风“查理”和“弗朗西斯”扫荡佛罗里达地区之后，像Federated Department Stores Inc.(FD)和连锁餐馆Brinker International Inc. (EAT)等知名大公司都说，大批的消费者都被吹跑了。
就在“弗朗西斯”刚刚过去一周之后，飓风“伊凡”又接踵而至。“伊凡”的强度最近已升至破坏力极强的5级。从一些公司的反应来看，旅游业受到的影响非常明显：JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU)、沃尔特-迪斯尼公司(Walt Disney o., DIS)和游轮公司Carnival Corp. (CCL)都警告说，飓风将使它们的季度每股收益至少下降1美分。
而由于飓风导致公众纷纷外出躲避、停电以及分析师所谓的“CNN效应”（指有重大事件时人们窝在家里整天盯著电视），日常消费领域如零售、餐饮和百货店类公司也同样感受到了压力，这些企业有的在佛罗里达的业务规模相当大。
这其中，具体情况取决于企业所销售的产品类型。佛罗里达的折扣店就出现了居民囤集食物和其他生活必需品、应急用品的情况，这些产品的销售量大增。但销售服装的零售商和百货店却错过了一个关键的大好机会：每年从劳工节长周末开始，都会有一个学生返校前后的销售旺季。真是不走运。
证券研究及交易公司Aperion Group的分析师戈里根(Katherine Galligan)在上周的研究报告里说，估计劳工节周末搞促销且在佛罗里达有相当大规模业务的百货店受到飓风的影响最惨重。
据Galligan的估计，损失最严重的有Neiman Marcus Group Inc. (NMGA, NMGB)。据Aperion的数据，该公司有16%的店分布在佛罗里达。
在飓风“弗朗西斯”期间，这家总部位于达拉斯的奢侈品零售商有6家同名商店关闭了三天半；Galligan估计，这场风暴将把该公司每股收益“吹跑”1-2美分。
Federated也预计这些飓风将有损它的利润。这家总部在纽约的公司旗下拥有布鲁明代尔(Bloomingdale's)和梅西百货(Macy's)等著名百货店品牌。据德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的数据，该公司的百货店有15%分布在佛罗里达。
Federated说，在飓风“弗朗西斯”肆虐期间商店停业造成的损失达到了2,000万美元，预计本季度（截至10月30日）每股收益将减少3-4美分。此前该公司预计，本季度每股收益可达35-40美分。
餐饮连锁店和在佛罗里达有大量业务的小企业也受到了风暴的冲击。总部位于休斯顿的Landry's Restaurants Inc. (LNY)上周五估计，“弗朗西斯”使他们丢掉了一些业务，给他们造成的损失达到180万美元-220万美元。位于北卡罗来纳州的便利店经营商The Pantry的1,367家商店中有将近三分之一业务都在佛罗里达，为统计飓风造成的损害并为飓风“伊凡”到来作准备，该公司取消了一次投资者会议。
Brinker下调了第一财政季度和2005财政年度的收益预期。该公司拥有Chili's、Romano's Macaroni Grill和其他连锁餐馆。分析师估计，该公司分布在佛罗里达的资产占其总资产的10%。
这家位于达拉斯的公司说，飓风“查理”使其8月份的同店销售减少了0.5%左右；“弗朗西斯”的影响有可能达到1%。
尽管有这些不如人意的事，但投资者未必就要对这些受到风暴影响的公司的股票避之惟恐不及。事实上，短线卖家造成的暂时走软或许正是买进机会，投资者或许正可藉此
建立一笔稳赚的投资。对多数公司来说，飓风带来的影响只是资产负债表上的一个小小的斑点，应该无伤大雅。
PiperJaffray驻纽约资深研究分析师奥克斯(Peter Oakes)说，飓风对这些公司的业绩虽然不能说毫无影响，但也不至于有太大干扰。他对Brinker的评级是与大盘一致，他说，该公司的真正问题并不在飓风。
他说，人们都认为，飓风只是偶尔发生的自然事件。难道它会长久地影响一家公司今后的盈利吗？不会。他不持有Brinker股票，他所在的公司与Brinker也没有投行业务往来。
虽然Federated的季度收益预期下调了近10%，但德意志银行分析师德里赫(Bill Dreher)对该股的评级仍是买进，对它的目标股价是55美元。他说，该股的预期本益比是12倍，这个水平低于15倍的行业平均水平，仍很有吸引力。
德意志银行与该公司有投行业务往来。德里赫或者他的一位家人持有Federated的股票。
总部位于弗吉尼亚的Advance Auto Parts在佛罗里达也有很多业务。据独立投资研究机构Oppenheimer的数据，该公司是全美第二大汽车配件零售商，在佛罗里达的零售店占其零售店总数的17%。
Oppenheimer将该公司第三财季收益预期从每股70美分下调至68美分，并将其全年预期相应下调了2美分，达到每股2.52美元。
但分析师仍看好该股。虽然“迄今最严重”的飓风“伊凡”仍有可能再次暂时影响其销售，但Oppenheimer对该股的评级仍是买进，对它的目标股价是42美元。
Consumer Research Group分析师威尔逊(Cid Wilson)周二在一份报告中说，他看好该股，该股股价如下跌，那将是一个买进机会。
他说，飓风产生的是大范围的影响，销售下跌不是因为公司本身的问题引起的，到10月份销售就应会回升。他还说，他对该股的目标股价更高，是55美元。
换言之，虽然从天气频道上看这一连串的风暴气势汹汹，但对佛罗里达的各家公司来说，虽然他们也会感受到阵痛，但对他们的股价而言，飓风所激起的只是几串涟漪，不久之后就会消失。
