中国九年来首次加息 调控政策更趋市场化

China's Rate Increase Signals Shift in Strategy

China raised its interest rates for the first time in nine years, signaling that Beijing is adopting more market-driven policies to combat an overheated economy that has fueled global growth and underpinned commodity prices.

But there was no indication whether Beijing was prepared to adopt a more-flexible policy toward its currency, which the U.S. argues is undervalued and gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage.

Thursday's surprise move generally was applauded by economists, who said that by placing more emphasis on market controls instead of crude administrative interventions, Beijing was more likely to achieve a so-called soft landing for its economy. Any sudden slowdown in China would be a huge blow for exporters, particularly of industrial parts and raw materials, who have derived much of their recent growth from Chinese demand.

One-year benchmark lending rates were raised by 0.27 percentage point to 5.58%, and deposit rates were boosted by the same amount to 2.25%. Further increases are expected to help rein in speculative excesses -- particularly in real estate -- that have been fueling growth now running at more than 9% a year.


In New York, the U.S. Treasury's top international official, John Taylor, applauded China's move as "a positive step" that would prove beneficial to the American economy by diminishing the threat of a sharp downturn in China's economic expansion.

Mr. Taylor praised the rate increase as "part of an effort to control inflationary pressures in China and to keep the expansion going at a sustainable rate, while also helping China move toward a flexible exchange rate."

Mr. Taylor said the boost in interest rates showed that China "is moving toward a market-oriented approach to policy" that will make it easier to free China's currency, the yuan. The U.S. and other nations have been pressuring China to allow more flexibility in its exchange rate, arguing that the yuan is undervalued and provides an unfair advantage for China's exporters.

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, agreed that the import of China's move is a step toward a more market-oriented economy and an eventual floating of the yuan. "As your economy becomes more and more market oriented, it's not possible to both fix your exchange rate against the dollar and have a completely different interest-rate policy," he said. Higher interest rates will attract inflows of foreign money seeking a higher return, putting upward pressure on the currency; lower interest rates have the opposite effect.

Stephen Roach , chief economist with Morgan Stanley, said the rate increases will slow an already anemic global economy in the next year. "This obviously could be challenging for those countries whose export flows have been so heavily dependent on China," he said. At the top of his watch list are South Korea, Japan and Germany. More than 40% of the export growth for Japan and Korea in 2003 was directed to China, Mr. Roach estimated. Meanwhile, 28% of Germany's export growth was driven by China, he said.

By raising rates, some economists say Beijing is sending a signal that despite signs of recent cooling in its economy, China is concerned that inflationary pressures are building. It also could indicate Beijing's concern that administrative remedies, which include choking off bank credit and limiting the supply of land to real-estate developers, haven't worked well enough to bring growth down to a more sustainable level of 7% to 8%.

Consumer-price inflation exceeds 5% a year, fueled by increases in food and oil prices and domestic supply bottlenecks for transportation and electricity. Meanwhile, supply shortages for everything from coal to high-grade steel and petrochemicals have driven prices higher, hampering manufacturers and cutting into their profits.

"You can't solve these problems with administrative measures," said Lu Deming, an economist at Fudan University in Shanghai. "China is a market economy. Raising interest rates is an appropriate way to ease demand pressures."

Yet skepticism remains about the effectiveness of adjusting interest rates in an economy where investment by state companies often is driven more by the availability of capital than the cost of capital.

Also yesterday, Beijing further raised the upper band on bank-lending rates to allow banks to charge customers nearly 14% for funds. However, fierce competition for business among cash-heavy banks generally means borrowing takes place at the band's lower limit. The move wasn't expected to significantly tighten credit.

"I don't think there's an interest-rate hike in the world that could slow things down now," said Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, an economic consulting firm in Valhalla, N.Y.

The fear of any slowdown in China hit share prices of aluminum, steel and other commodity producers around the world yesterday. However, economists argued that China's appetite for raw materials will remain enormous despite the rate increase. Jim Lennon, a commodities strategist at Macquarie Bank in London, said the big drop in Chinese demand for commodities already occurred in the middle of this year. "We've already been through quite an adjustment, and I think we're even starting to bounce back a little bit," he said.

Indeed, China has invested so much in mills and plants that make construction goods that demand for raw materials will continue to rise. China, which imported 148 million tons of iron ore last year, will import 200 million tons this year, Mr. Lennon said.

If the interest-rate increase does result in the Chinese economy slowing, multinationals could see softening demand in one of their fastest-growing markets. But Arun Raha, international economist with Eaton Corp., a Cleveland-based manufacturer that produces transmissions and hydraulic equipment in China, said a slowdown would benefit many companies by taking some pressure off the prices of energy, steel and commodities.

Some sectors of the Chinese economy that already have begun to slow, such as automobiles, might be weakened further if consumers have even less reason to buy. Companies such as Volkswagen AG, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. recently have moved to set up consumer-finance arms and are counting on a credit boom to drive the next wave of car sales.

After sales growth that topped 50% in each of two years, China's auto market screeched to a halt in September, with sales sliding 3.6% from a year earlier. Several of China's best-selling models saw sales drop more than 50% from a year earlier.

Countries dependent on China sales for much of their export growth also could suffer. Stephen Roach , chief economist with Morgan Stanley, estimated that more than 40% of the export growth for Japan and Korea in 2003 was directed to China. He said 28% of Germany's export growth was driven by China.

Treasury's Mr. Taylor was more sanguine, assuming China manages to avoid a crash landing. "As long as China continues to grow, exports will rise," he said. U.S. exports to China are growing at 34% this year, the third-largest increase in dollar terms of any market, after Canada and Mexico.
中国九年来首次加息 调控政策更趋市场化

中国周四宣布9年来首次上调利率，这显示北京正在采取更加市场化的手段来调控过热的经济。中国经济已成为全球增长的一个重要动力，其庞大的需求也为全球石油和大宗商品的价格居高不下提供了支撑。

但没有迹象显示北京已准备采取更灵活的外汇体制。美国认为，中国的人民币被低估使得中国的出口商在竞争中享有不公平的价格优势。

中国央行的突然加息之举得到了经济学家的普遍赞许。他们认为，通过加强市场化调控，而不是生硬的行政干预，北京实现经济软著陆的几率上升了。假如中国经济硬著陆，对亚洲邻国（包括日本和韩国）将是一个灾难，因为中国对工业部件以及原材料的需求已成为了地区增长的主要动力。

中国宣布自10月29日起将1年期基准贷款利率上调27个基点，至5.58%，同期存款利率也上调27个基点，至2.25%。市场普遍预计为遏制过度投机，特别是房地产行业中的投机行为，中国还将进一步加息。受过度投机的推动，中国经济目前的年增长幅度超过了9%。

在纽约，美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长泰勒(John Taylor)称中国的加息举动是积极的一步，它降低了中国经济硬著陆的威胁，美国将从中受益。

在接受采访时，泰勒称赞加息是“中国控制通货膨胀压力和保持经济可持续发展的努力之一，这也将有助于中国转向更灵活的汇率体制。”泰勒表示，加息决定显示中国在政策方面正在更趋向市场化，会推动人民币朝自由浮动的方向迈进。

泰勒表示，这些防止中国经济过热的努力也将有利于美国的重要商品源源不断地出口到中国，“只要中国经济持续增长，出口就会增长。”美国对华出口今年的增幅将达到34%，在美国所有出口市场中，中国对美国的进口增幅排名第三，仅次于加拿大和墨西哥。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席经济学家史蒂芬?罗奇(Stephen Roach)预计中国的加息将使得本已增长乏力的全球经济明年更加放缓。

罗奇指出，对于那些出口高度依赖中国的国家来说，这显然是个挑战，他认为最值得担心的是韩国、日本和德国。据罗奇估计，2003年日本和韩国有40%以上的出口增长来自中国，而德国的这个比例是28%。

一些经济学家认为，北京的加息传递出了这样一个信号：虽然国内经济有降温迹象，但中国对通货膨胀压力的加大仍有担忧。加息可能还说明北京认为行政干预措施的效果还不够；今年以来中国实施的行政干预措施包括紧缩信贷，对房地产开发商限制土地供应等等。

消费者价格指数目前的年增幅超过了5%，食品价格、油价以及交通和电力的国内供应瓶颈是促成物价上涨的主因。

“（传递出的）信息是中国经济依然增长过快，”瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)驻香港的首席经济学家陶冬表示。他预计未来12至18个月内，中国利率的上升幅度可能达到2-3个百分点。

从煤炭，高品质钢材，再到化工产品等众多原材料的供应短缺推高了价格，使得制造商深受其害，并□食了他们的利润。中国创纪录的石油进口量也推动世界原油价格涨到了每桶50美元以上。

“行政手段并不能够解决所有这些问题，”上海复旦大学经济学家陆德明表示，“中国是一个市场经济。用加息来减轻需求压力是正确的做法。”

不过，如果需求转至疲软，也会给中国造成其他问题。大量的资金流入银行帐户或用于购买债券，对人民币汇率将构成升值压力。加息也可能鼓励更多的投机性热钱流入，增加人民币汇率的上涨压力。而人民币一旦升值，中国商品的海外价格必然上涨，中国就业和经济增长的关键动力──出口就会受到伤害。

但从此次加息的幅度来看，经济学家们认为人民币汇率承受的升值压力不大。

“和美国或欧洲不同，中国不会那样大幅的加息，”陆德明称，“（这样的加息幅度）不会改变消费者的行为。”

不过，如果消费者的购买意愿下降，汽车等一些早已开始放缓增长步伐的行业将进一步受挫。大众(Volkswagen AG )、通用汽车(General Motors Corp., GM)和福特汽车(Ford Motor Co., F)等公司近来正在建立消费者金融子公司，希望通过信贷扩张推动下一轮汽车销售高潮的出现。

中国的汽车市场在经历了两年超过50%的增长后，今年9月份突然踩了刹车，当月销量较上年同期下降3.6%。几款在中国畅销的车型当月销量较上年同期降幅逾50%。

周四，北京还进一步放开了人民币贷款利率的浮动区间，允许银行最高可征收近14%的利率。但在银行普遍现金充足、贷款业务竞争激烈的情况下，贷款利率事实上更多地是位于浮动区间的下端，因此此举估计不会有显著的紧缩信贷效应。

基于中国经济的现状，一些人对利率政策的有效性仍持怀疑态度，因为中国许多国有企业的投资更多地是看是否有可用资本，资本成本并不是个问题。传统衡量国有企业的业绩表现是看其产出水平，而不是盈利水平。

还有经济学家认为，此次加息是个不好的信号，它说明行政手段未能有效遏制住经济增长势头，因此政府寄希望于上调贷款利率，但从其他新兴市场国家的经验来看，在此种经济状况下通过利率机制为经济降温往往无法收到成效。

“我不认为，现在世界上哪个国家通过加息就真的能放缓经济的增长，”纽约州一家经济咨询公司High Frequency Economics的卡尔?温伯格(Carl Weinberg)表示。

如果加息的确导致了中国经济的减速，跨国公司将看到这个增长很快的市场出现需求的放缓。但Eaton Corp.的国际经济学家艾伦?拉哈(Arun Raha)表示，需求放缓也有其益处，这样的话很多公司承受的大宗商品、能源和钢铁的价格压力将减轻。Eaton是总部位于克利夫兰的一家制造公司，在中国生产输电和水力设备。

但其他经济学家认为，加息之后，中国对原材料仍有庞大的需求。麦格理银行(Macquarie Bank)驻伦敦的大宗商品策略师吉姆?列农(Jim Lennon)称，中国大宗商品需求的大幅下滑今夏季已经出现过了。

“中国需求下滑已成为过去，我认为，中国现在的需求已开始有些反弹了，”他说。

事实上，中国建筑材料生产行业的建厂投资是如此之高，必然导致未来原材料需求的持续增长。中国去年进口铁矿石1.48亿吨，列农预计今年将达到2亿吨

中国9年来首次加息震动全球市场

China’s rate increase shakes global markets

China's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years drove down domestic share prices on Friday, led by property and steel companies, after briefly throwing global financial markets into a tailspin overnight.


The move by the People's Bank of China, the country’s central bank, on Thursday to lift its benchmark one-year lending rate to 5.58 per cent from 5.31 per cent, weighed on domestic A shares and foreign currency B shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

The benchmark Shanghai composite index closed morning trading down 0.7 per cent at 1,331.845 points. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 10.32 at 1,397.42, and the Shenzhen A-share Index slipped 3.62 to 351.79.

Though Chinese stock markets were down as much as 3 per cent during the trading day, the losses were tempered by gains in the share prices of domestic banks whose bottom lines stand to benefit from higher interest income for loans. Minsheng Banking gained 2.2 per cent to Rmb6 by midday while Merchants Bank, China’s largest listed lender, rose 2.7 per cent to Rmb8.99.

Shares of property developers and steelmakers that had borrowed heavily or offered cheap credit to finance rampant expansion bore the brunt of Friday’s decline. Baoshan Iron & Steel, China’s biggest steelmaker and the world’s sixth largest, fell by 2.9 percent to Rmb5.72 by the close of midday trading, while China Vanke, the biggest land developer in Shenzhen, dropped by 6 per cent to Rmb5.10.

The central bank’s decision suggested a shift by Beijing toward using market-oriented measures to control the economy - a change long urged by economists. In addition to the adjustment in the benchmark rate, the deposit rate also was increased to 2.25 per cent from 1.98 per cent. It was the first rise in the lending rate since July 1995 and in the deposit rate since July 1993.

China has been relying on administrative measures to tamp down what it sees as excessive investment in certain sectors such as steel, property and aluminum. The central bank has also been trying to limit liquidity in the system and tighten credit to commercial banks.

Investors' immediate reaction to the decision highlighted the pivotal role that China has recently assumed in the world economy. Its rapid economic growth has turned it into an important source of demand for many raw materials. The decision hit commodity prices, stock markets and exchange rates around the world on Thursday.

Bonds slide on China move



Bond prices fell around the world, sending yields higher, on news of an interest rate rise in China.

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Metal prices were hit and oil prices also fell. Bond markets reacted nervously as short-dated Treasury prices fell and yields jumped by more than 0.15 percentage points. The dollar strengthened initially as investors feared a slowdown in China would weaken growth across Asia and weaken demand for commodities but later eased.

China's consumer price inflation hit 5.2 per cent in September, well above the deposit rate. But economists said the move would demonstrate to depositors that it would step in and raise rates if inflation remained high.

The PBoC further loosened controls on loans by lifting the ceiling on the range in which commercial banks can adjust lending rates. The ceiling, previously 70 per cent higher than the benchmark rate, is now 130 per cent higher.

Dollar unsettled



Foreign exchange traders took their eye off oil prices and focused on China, as currency markets digested the Beijing rate move.

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“This is the beginning of a long process of normalisation of interest rates,” said Dong Tao, chief regional economist for Credit Suisse First Boston.

Although the timing of China’s move came as a surprise, economists had been expecting an interest rate increase at some point. Many said they believed more would follow. "It's very likely they will have another 25 basis point [rise] in the next six months," said Qu Hongbin, senior economist for China at HSBC.

However, Jonathan Anderson, chief economist for Asia at UBS, said the move should not be seen as an attempt at credit tightening. “This is just the PBoC being careful,” he said. “They're gingerly starting to raise rates just to send a signal to banks and depositors.”

Central bank officials have become increasingly concerned about potential leakage of deposits out of the official banking system as inflation has risen, pushing real deposit rates into negative territory, Mr Anderson said. If individuals began to take deposits out, it would threaten the health of the banking sector.

The US Treasury department said the rate rise was consistent with a move towards flexible exchange rates. John Taylor, Treasury Department undersecretary for international affairs, said: “This is part of a series of moves to reduce inflationary pressures on China. ... It is also consistent with a move to flexible exchange rates, which China has shown it wants to do.”

The bank's decision, effective from Friday, was announced on its website. The adjustment was intended “to consolidate the results of macro-economic adjustment,” the statement said.

In the third quarter, gross domestic product grew 9.1 per cent, down from 9.6 per cent the previous quarter. Most economists expect this growth to slow next year.
中国9年来首次加息震动全球市场

中国中央银行周四决定9年来首次升息，令全球金融市场一阵狂乱。


中国人民银行决定，基准的一年期贷款利率由目前的5.31%上调到5.58%，此举使全球的商品价格、股市和外汇均受到冲击。存款利率则从现行的1.98%上调到2.25%。这是中国自1995年7月和1993年7月以来第一次分别上调贷款利率和存款利率。

这一措施表明了中国政府的一个政策转变，即它正朝着运用市场手段调控经济的方向努力。经济学家们早就敦促实现这种转变。

中国一直依赖行政措施来抑制它所认为的部分行业过度投资，例如钢铁、房地产和铝业等。中央银行也一直试图限制系统内流动资金，并紧缩了对商业银行的信贷。

投资者对升息决定立刻作出反应，这突出了中国近来在世界经济中的关键地位。中国经济的快速发展，已使它成为多种原材料需求的重要来源。

金属价格受到的冲击最大，石油价格也告下跌。债券市场反应紧张，短期国债价格下跌，收益率跃升逾0.15个百分点。因投资者担心中国经济减速将削弱整个亚洲地区的增长，并减少商品需求，美元最初大幅上扬，后来又有所回落。

尽管中国升息的时机有些出人意料，但经济学家此前一直在预期北京会在某个时间调升利率。昨天许多人表示，他们认为中国还会进一步升息。“今后6个月内，他们很可能会再升25个基点，”汇丰银行(HSBC)资深中国经济学家曲宏宾(Qu Hongbin)表示。

美国财政部表示，升息与走向灵活汇率制的努力是一致的。美国财政部主管国际事务的副部长约翰?泰勒(John Taylor)说：“这是减轻中国通胀压力一系列行动的一部分……它也与中国已表明的转向灵活汇率制的行动相吻。”

中国央行的升息决定从周五起生效，而该决定是通过其网站公布的。声明表示，利率调整是为了“巩固宏观调控的成果”。

大摩谢国忠，三年早知道

Oh, Xie, Can You See?

Morgan Stanley's iconclastic China watcher sees further drops in stocks

WHEN CHINESE OFFICIALS BEGAN making noises about tightening credit last year, Andy Xie advised Morgan Stanley's clients that he was turning negative on China. At the time, many investors believed China was merely tapping on the brakes to bring world's fastest growth rate down to a stable cruising speed, which would let equities continue their seemingly unstoppable advance. But Xie watched with growing concern as the central bank raised deposit reserve requirements, and then as the Politburo decided to restrict new lending in steel, aluminum, autos and real estate.

And although China may indeed still be trying to engineer a soft landing, the boyish, soft-spoken economist argues, the game is over for investors. The downturn will last for at least a year longer, and Chinese stocks "are nowhere near the bottom," he asserts. And if you want to play China's historic growth? Xie's surprising answer is to buy a handful of American blue-chip companies making inroads into the Middle Kingdom.

Many investors already pay attention to Xie, 44 (his name is pronounced "Shea"), who as Morgan Stanley's chief Asia Pacific economist has received a raft of awards from the likes of Caijing, a prominent Mainland finance magazine, and Institutional Investor. He's known for incisive commentary and for traveling further afield than many emerging-markets investors claim to.

Anybody else interested in what Morgan Stanley's own chief global economist Stephen Roach dubs "the world's most powerful growth story" would do well to listen to Xie. Cheah Cheng Hye, the well-regarded chief investment officer of Value Partners in Hong Kong, says, "Andy Xie is one of a small number of economists even a bottom-up investor like me has to pay a lot of attention to." Cheah calls Xie's work "original" and "sharp," and says Xie isn't afraid to tell investors what they don't want to hear.

Andy Xie's China plays: McDonald's, Wal-Mart.

Roach, Xie's boss -- who's notorious for optimism about the Mainland -- says Xie "taught me everything I know about China." Indeed, Roach lately is revising his shorter-term view of China to reflect Xie's caution.

His first call after joining Morgan Stanley in '97 was that China would plunge into deflation -- unless it followed South Korea in devaluing its currency. He also said Hong Kong's real-estate bubble would collapse. He was right. In '99, as China prepared to enter the World Trade Organization, he turned bullish. "Most people thought 'WTO -- so what'? I thought, 'it's the start of an investment cycle.' In China, which is boom-bust, it's all about the catalyst for the investment cycle." Many investors have run aground on China before, in part because of a dysfunctional financial system and a politically directed economy.

Two forces drive China's economic cycles: the Federal Reserve, which regulates U.S. demand for China's exports, and the Communist Party, which mints new officials every five years after the Party Congress. The new officials routinely push for new investment. More recently, the two forces coincided. Then Chinese officials began to fear the inevitable bust. "My job is to predict cycles right, and the boom-bust cycle is driven by politics," says Xie. Thus, the giant sell signal indicated by the Politburo's lending restrictions.

And cycles last surprisingly long. Historically, it takes about two years for China's investment growth rate to bottom when the cycle turns sour. China's average investment growth rate is 12% to 15%. The current growth rate, at 30%, is still twice as high. "The consensus view about China is that the worst is behind us," says Xie, but "This is just the beginning." Xie recently cut his 2005 Chinese-growth forecast to 7%. He thinks GDP will grow 9.5% this year.

The Mainland's economy slowed markedly in April, but turned higher as the government began hinting that previous tightening measures had been sufficient to achieve its goals. After the Party's central committee met several weeks ago and made dovish noises about credit, Xie prepared for another wave of speculation.

Most investors, in contrast, think that slowing money-supply growth and China's need to boost investments in its underdeveloped interior suggest that the next move will be an easing. They're wrong, Xie says.

For all that China has restricted new lending, it hasn't been able to raise interest rates because it fears inviting more speculation, as well as a crash in the property market. Shanghai is a case in point. At the heart of Shanghai's real-estate boom are the Taiwanese, who are betting that both China's currency and property values will rise. That's why Shanghai property has defied three increases in U.S. short-term rates. Last year, the value of new residential property was equivalent to 17% of Shanghai's economic output. Most of the speculators are likely to lose their shirts, he says.

A trigger for the downturn might be a rash of inflation scares ahead, as rising food and fuel prices erode factory-workers' wages -- and as a result, migrant workers refuse to show up. That's already happening in some places. That's bad news for Japan and South Korea, which are suffering from a slowdown in capital-equipment exports.

And boom-bust cycles, while creating gross-domestic product growth, "don't create value for capital," says Xie, adding, "I think that Chinese stocks are still overvalued." The H-share index -- Chinese companies with secondary listings in Hong Kong -- is creeping back to last December's levels, but is off 17% from its peak of 5,391.28. The "H" share index is China's most representative, Xie relates, and is stuffed with cyclicals. The bottom, he says, is when the index trades below book value. At the moment, it trades at twice book, and 15 times peak earnings, even though Chinese companies sport some of the lowest returns on equity around.

Xie is recommending instead that investors own Taiwan and Hong Kong. Although the two have needed to raise interest rates, domestic demand is on the upswing.

And those betting on an imminent revaluation of China's currency, including President Bush, will be disappointed; the renminbi, says Xie, "is not going to be revalued for at least two years." China's banking system is rife with bad debt, and boosting the currency will reduce export revenue and make repayments tougher. When China does revalue, Xie figures the currency will fall, not rise, as the central bank prints money to help banks restructure portfolios of soured loans.

Xie recommends U.S. investors seeking to avoid the wild rides of China's bourses instead should own consumer brands such as Yum Brands, with its Kentucky Fried Chicken franchises, and McDonald's, which are creating valuable consumer franchises. The one-child policy has created a nation of spoiled children, and trips to KFC are good ways to spoil Junior.

This view was cemented on a hot, dusty trip to Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province. That's when Xie saw that KFC and McDonald's managed to keep their restaurants clean amidst the chaos, suggesting higher standards that would attract customers. "Office girls don't want to sit next to a guy smoking cigarettes in a dirty restaurant. These two companies are creating the most valuable franchises in China. If you're really bullish about China, buy these two companies."

Hypermarkets, Xie argues, also obviate the need for increased government regulation by ensuring quality merchandise themselves. A big advantage is that population density in Chinese cities is three-to-four times greater than for a U.S. city. Sales volumes are greater as a result. "They're driving out local retail competitors. Hypermarkets will be the main distribution channel. Wal-Mart will become huge in China! It is just beginning." 大摩谢国忠，三年早知道

去年当中国高层官员开始在各种场合发表言论表示要紧缩信贷之际，摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的经济学家谢国忠 (Andy Xie) 便告诫客户说，他对中国经济的看法开始转向负面。同时，许多投资者却认为，中国只是要稍稍踩一下刹车，以便让其拥有全球最快增速的经济放缓一下脚步以保持稳定增长，因而中国股票那看上去不可阻挠的前进脚步还会继续向前迈进。然而，随著中国央行上调银行存款准备金比率，继而中央政府又决定限制钢铁、铝业、汽车和房地产行业的新批贷款项目，谢国忠的忧虑在与日俱增。

谢国忠表示，虽然中国也许的确仍在努力实现经济的软著陆，但是对于投资者而言，游戏已经结束。总体经济的下行趋势至少还要再持续一年的时间，中国股市如今也还“远没有触底”。对于那些依然抱守中国增长概念恋恋不舍的投资者，谢国忠的建议颇有些出乎意料：投注于数家踏足“中土”、胸怀“逐鹿中原”大志的美国蓝筹公司。

许多投资者已经开始关注谢国忠。这位现年 44 岁的摩根士丹利亚太首席经济学家以卓具洞察力的深入分析和旁征博引而著称，并因此而荣获了机构投资者 (Institutional Investor) 和中国著名财经媒体《财经》杂志等权威机构颁发的多种奖项。

任何其他对中国这个被摩根士丹利全球首席经济学家史蒂芬?罗奇 (Stephen Roach) 称之为“世界最强成长实例”的经济体感兴趣的人都会从谢国忠的分析中受益匪浅。香港惠理基金管理公司 (Value Partners) 颇具声望的首席投资执行长谢清海 (Cheah Cheng Hye) 表示：“谢国忠是连像我这样以投资对象基本面为出发点的投资者也不得不关注的为数不多的几个经济学家之一。”他说，谢国忠的观点“新颖独到”而又“锐利敏捷”，敢言投资者所不愿闻。

作为谢国忠上司的罗奇向以极度看好中国大陆而著称。他说：“我所了解的关于中国的一切都是谢国忠教我的。”的确，罗奇最近下调中国的短期前景预期正是因为听了谢国忠的警告。

谢国忠在 1997 年加入摩根士丹利之后发布的第一篇研究报告就是预计中国会陷入通货紧缩──除非它学韩国让本币贬值。他同时还预言香港的房地产泡沫即将破灭。事实果然如他所言。到了 1999 年，随著中国紧锣密鼓地准备加入世界贸易组织 (WTO) ，谢国忠对中国前景的看法开始转向积极和乐观。大多数人当时都有这样的想法：入世又怎样？但谢国忠认为，“那标志著一个投资周期的开始”。在形势大起大落的中国，要把握投资周期的时机，关键是要把握催化这一周期的各种因素。许多投资者先前曾在中国触礁，原因之一便是中国经济受到政治因素主导，而且其金融体制的机能不够健全。

有两个因素对中国的经济周期起著决定性作用：一是负责对美国国内的中国进口产品需求进行调控的联邦储备委员会 (Federal Reserve, 简称 Fed) ，另一个是每 5 年要通过全国代表大会任命一批新官员的中国共产党。最近，这两个决定因素碰巧一起到来了。于是中国的高层开始担心周期性的“大落”会不可避免地出现。“我的工作是准确地预测周期，而这大起大落的盛衰周期是由政治因素决定的，”谢国忠如此说。因此中央政府的限制贷款政策在他看来便成为一个极其明显的卖空信号。

而中国的经济周期时间跨度之长很是令人惊讶。从历史上看，中国的投资增长开始从顶峰回落后通常要经过两年的时间方能触底。中国的平均投资增长率是 12% 到 15% ，而当前是 30% ，达到平均水平的两倍。谢国忠说，普遍观点认为，最糟糕的情形已经过去，但实际上潮退才刚刚开始。谢最近将其对中国 2005 年经济增幅的预期下调到了 7% 。他对中国今年 GDP 增长率的预期是 9.5% 。

中国大陆的经济增长今年 4 月显著放缓，但不久政府便开始暗示说先前的紧缩措施已显现成效并足以实现既定目标，经济增速随之便开始出现回升。中共中央在数周前的会议上谈到信贷问题时言语间相对温和了许多，此时，谢国忠知道，又一波投机又要出现了。

大多数投资者认为，货币供应增长的减缓以及中国加大内陆欠发达地区投资力度的需要表明，中央的下一步棋应是放松货币政策，但是谢国忠说，他们想错了。

虽说中国对新贷款项目进行了严格限制，但它一直没有上调利率，因为它怕引来更多投机并导致地产市场的崩溃。上海的地产市场便可说明问题。真正炒热上海房地产的是台湾人。他们认定人民币和大陆房地产都会升值，因而不断将大把资金投入上海的地产市场。这也正是为什么美国 Fed 连续三次加息，上海地产市场丝毫不为所动的原因所在。去年，上海新增住宅地产价值相当于该城市经济总产出的 17% 。谢国忠说，大多数下错赌注的投机者有可能因此而倾家荡产。

一连串的通货膨胀威胁可能会成为触发经济回落的重要因素。食品和燃料价格的上涨不断蚕食著工厂工人的工资收入，结果便会是城市外来民工数量出现锐减。这种情况在有些地方已经露出了苗头。对于资本设备出口正不断下降的日本和韩国而言，这是坏消息。

谢国忠说，盛衰周期内虽然中国的 GDP 出现了增长，但资本价值并无任何提高。“我认为中国股市依然虚高。”衡量在港上市大陆公司股票表现的恒生 H 股指数现已爬升到去年 12 月时的水平，但与 5,391.28 的历史最高纪录相比仍有 17% 的差距。谢说， H 股指数的成份股是最具代表性的中国概念股，其中有许多带有明显的周期性涨跌特征。当成份股股价低于公司帐面价值之际便是该指数触底之时。当前成份股股价是公司帐面价值的两倍，按照顶峰时的每股收益计算，本益比仍达 15 倍之高。

谢国忠因此建议投资者投资于台湾和香港公司。虽然两地已有必要上调利率，但其当地的需求仍处于上升态势。

包括美国总统布什在内的那些认定人民币会很快升值的人该感到失望了。谢国忠说，至少两年内人民币价值不会重估。当前中国的银行体系内坏帐多多，若是让人民币升值，则意味著出口收入减少，债务人的偿贷能力也将受到影响。如果中国真的要对人民币进行重新估价的话，谢认为，人民币也应当是贬值而非升值，中国央行可以通过印制新钞帮助银行重组不良贷款。

谢国忠建议美国投资者避开反复无常的中国股市，可以考虑投资于麦当劳 (McDonald's) 和肯德鸡 (Kentucky Fried Chicken) 的母公司百胜餐饮 (Yum Brands) 。这两家快餐连锁店已在中国发展了极具价值的特许经营业务网络。中国的一对夫妇只生一个孩子的计划生育政策造就了一大批被宠坏的小皇帝。在中国，带小孩子去肯德鸡或者麦当劳是许多父母宠孩子的一种方式。

一次山西太原之旅使得谢国忠的这一观点得到了印证。在那里，谢在零乱嘈杂的环境中看到了整洁漂亮的肯德鸡和麦当劳餐厅的店堂，充分显示出它们吸引顾客所必备的高标准。“坐在一家脏兮兮的小饭馆里，身边的人还叼著香烟吞云吐雾，这样的环境绝非那些办公楼里女孩所愿入。”谢说：“你要真是看好中国，那就投资于麦当劳和肯德鸡吧。”

另外谢还说，超级市场运营商也是一个不错的选择。只要保证自己出售的商品的质量，它可以避开很多政府监管上的麻烦。中国的人口数量是一个巨大的优势。中国城市的人口密度要比美国城市高三到四倍，超市销售量因而也自然就要大得多。外来的大型超市运营商正在不断将中国当地的竞争对手挤出当地零售市场。超级市场将成为主流分销渠道。沃尔玛 (Wal-Mart) 会成为中国超市业的巨人，现在它才刚刚起步。

中国经济放缓但风险犹存

China's Economic Slowdown Holds Risk

China's official growth rate for the third quarter of 9.1% year-to-year is the latest sign Beijing's strategy to cool the economy -- and not crash it -- is working. But success is breeding concern among some observers that the government could become addicted to using administrative fiat, rather than market-based tools, to guide the economy.

Statisticians here announced Friday that the economy has slowed. The third-quarter gross-domestic-product growth rate constitutes a slight slowdown from the first quarter's rate of 9.8% year-to-year and the second quarter's 9.6%.

While economists take Chinese GDP figures with a grain of salt, other indicators also depict a gradual cooling. Growth of new bank loans has fallen drastically to pre-2002 levels. Investment in steel mills and cement factories, which Beijing declared excessive in 2003 and early 2004, has dropped sharply. And inflation, which has been accelerating steadily, shows signs of stabilizing: The consumer-price index rose 5.2% in September compared with a year earlier, down from 5.3% in both July and August.

Gone for now is talk of a "hard landing" risk -- indeed, there are signs the engines of growth are revving up again. Industrial production and fixed-asset investment were higher in September than in August. "I think it's a bit of an acceleration," said Hong Liang, an economist with Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.

Many economists are heartened that Beijing has achieved a measure of control. But the means by which control was achieved continue to create challenges for the future management of China's economy. Since investment began showing signs of running amok in the middle of last year, Beijing has intervened with a series of executive measures more akin to old-fashioned central planning than to market-based policy responses.

In what Ms. Liang calls a "stop and go" policy, Beijing has been attempting through fiat to control how much money banks may lend and to whom, and whether and when property-development projects can proceed -- and then calibrating the amounts on a monthly basis. While the policy may have restored balance between investment boom and bust in the near term, it could be causing market distortions that spell trouble down the road.

Key market-oriented levers at Beijing's disposal remain mostly idle. To some extent, Beijing would find them of little use, some economists say. Raising interest rates probably would have done little to dissuade state-owned banks from funneling money into the pet projects of provincial officials. But it would have increased the interest payments of state-owned enterprises struggling to pay back to banks hundreds of billions of dollars in overdue loans. Other market-based measures, such as allowing the Chinese currency to float freely instead of being pegged to the dollar, are also fraught with risk. A free-floating yuan, rather than strengthening against other currencies, could weaken sharply as depositors transfer money out of Chinese bank accounts in pursuit of higher and possibly safer returns overseas.

For now, Beijing appears determined to keep up its administrative controls, though it appears to be adjusting them over time. "We should further enhance and expand the achievements of macro-control to guard against a rebound" of overinvestment and inflation, Zheng Jingping, a spokesman for the National Statistical Bureau, told reporters.

Distortions are already appearing in some markets. But perhaps more worrying, some economists fear Beijing is losing focus on fundamental restructuring needed to prevent the boom-bust cycles that caused recessions in the 1980s and mid-1990s. The cost of a Chinese recession to the global economy would be far higher next time, given how much bigger and more connected to the rest of the world China's economy has become.

In addition to banking changes, a critical task will be bolstering property rights. Many of the most egregious cases of overinvestment in recent years occurred when local governments joined with state banks and entrepreneurs to seize farmers' land and make way for big developments and factories. Farmers were routinely denied any say in the process, often ignorant that they had lost their land until the bulldozers arrived. Government-set standards for compensation were often ignored.

In April, Beijing froze any projects that sought to transform farmland for commercial use, promising a new regulatory framework. But the resolve to maintain the freeze may be slipping, with an adjustment of the policy expected as early as next month. Mr. Zheng, the statistics-bureau spokesman, noted that the land freeze is sending property prices higher, which he described as "not a good thing." 中国经济放缓但风险犹存

中国官方公布的第三季度国内生产总值 (GDP) 较上年同期增长 9.1% ，这是北京经济降温策略生效的一个最新迹象。但这样的成功也引发了一些观察人士新的担忧，即中国政府是否会由此在引导经济发展的过程中更惯于使用行政手段，而不是市场工具。

北京统计官员上周五宣布经济增长已放缓，第三季度中国 GDP 的增幅低于第一季度的 9.8% 和第二季度的 9.6% 。

虽然经济学家们对中国的 GDP 数据半信半疑，但其他指标也显示出中国经济逐步降温。银行新发贷款的增幅已降至 2002 年前的水平。钢铁厂和水泥厂行业的投资额也大幅减少，北京此前宣称上述行业在 2003 年和 2004 年年初投资过度。一度稳步攀升的通货膨胀也显露了趋稳的迹象， 9 月份消费者价格指数相比一年前增长 5.2% ，低于 7 、 8 月份的 5.3% 。

有关中国经济“硬著陆”风险的讨论已偃旗息鼓，事实上有迹象显示中国经济增长的一些发动机已再度轰然开动。 9 月份中国的工业产值和固定资产投资高于 8 月份。“我认为有经济轻微加速，”高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 驻香港的经济学家梁红表示。

许多经济学家为北京在一定程度上成功控制经济感到振奋。但北京控制经济的方式对未来中国经济的管理构成了挑战。自从去年年中投资开始呈现过热迹象，北京采取的一系列应对措施并非是市场化的工具，而是类似于计划经济时代的行政干预手段。

北京试图通过行政手段控制银行的放贷规模和放贷对象，以及房地产开发项目是否和何时进行投资等，并逐月作出调整。这些政策或许短期内重新实现了投资的平衡，但也可能造成市场扭曲，为未来出现问题埋下了伏笔。

北京可动用的市场工具基本上仍被闲置在一边。一些经济学家们表示，北京从某种程度上认为采用这些工具的效果并不明显。比如，如果采用加息，并不能阻止国有银行向省级官员们的形象工程发放贷款，只会增加正在偿还数千亿美元逾期贷款的国有企业的利息负担。其他基于市场的手段，如允许人民币汇率自由浮动（而不是钉住美元），也存在诸多风险。人民币汇率实现自由浮动后，很可能不是升值，而是急剧的贬值，因为存款人会将大量的资金转移出中国的银行帐户，以获取海外更高、可能也更安全的投资回报。

目前，北京看来决意继续实施行政手段，虽然也不时进行调整。“我们应进一步巩固和扩大宏观调控取得的成果，防止过度投资和通货膨胀出现反弹，”中国国家统计局发言人郑京平上周五对记者作此番表示。

北京所有行政手段的副效应可能要过一段时间后才会显现出来。但扭曲在一些市场中早已显现。上个月，汽车销售出现今年以来的首次下跌，其主要原因是政府对贷款进行控制。在其他行业，行政措施可能会导致过度投资。在信贷普遍紧缩的情况下，北京对能源行业网开一面，鼓励新电厂的建设以减轻全国范围内的能源短缺压力。今年电厂投资飙升，以致于分析师们担心几年后当这些电厂投入运营时，中国可能会出现供电过剩。

或许更令人担忧的是，一些经济学家们认为北京可能正偏离对基本面改革的关注，而要避免 80 年代和 90 年代中期出现的那种经济衰退，中国就必须进行基本面改革。中国下一次经济衰退对全球经济的影响将十分巨大，因为中国经济总量已变得非常庞大，与世界其他经济体的联系也日益紧密。

除了银行业改革，一项重要的任务将是保护财产权。近年来许多最严重的过度投资都与地方政府、国有银行和企业强征农民土地用于大型房地产开发项目和工厂相关。在这个过程中，农民们往往没有发言权，直到推土机到了家门前才知道他们已失去了脚下的土地。而政府制定的补偿标准往往会被抛在一边。

今年 4 月，北京冻结了任何试图征用农田的商业项目，承诺确立一个新的监管框架。但继续实施这项禁令的决心看来日益脆弱，预计最早下个月此项政策将作出调整。国家统计局发言人郑京平表示，冻结土地征用正在推高房地产价格，他说这不是件好事。

中国经济增长放缓 外国公司心生惶惑

Auto-Sales Slowdown in China Clouds Growth Assumptions

SHANGHAI -- A sudden sales slowdown is shaking up automobile companies in China, dimming one of the brightest lights of the Chinese economy and amplifying the anxieties of other industries doing business in the fast-growing market.

After two years of growth that topped 50%, China's auto market has hit the skids. In September, year-to-year sales dropped 3.6%, the first monthly decline in 2004. Several of China's best-selling models saw sales drop more than 50% in the month from a year earlier, according to the China Association for Automobile Manufacturers, an industry group. Although nine-month sales are still up nearly 17% from the year-earlier period, momentum has stalled for swaths of the industry. Auto executives say Chinese government efforts to curb credit are taking a toll on consumer appetite, while manufacturers cutting prices on new cars to remain competitive have hurt profits.

"It's mainly an issue of consumer confidence," says Philip F. Murtaugh, chief executive of the Chinese group at General Motors Corp. of Detroit. "When the economy is a bit tenuous, people don't spend." Also, gasoline prices are creeping higher, presenting an additional threat to car sales, though government controls keep domestic prices much lower than international prices.

The shaky state of China's auto market is lifting the stakes for the multitude of foreign companies that have announced billion-dollar-plus expansion plans in the country. It raises questions about the long-range bets global auto makers have made on what two decades from now may be the world's largest car market.

China's economy grew 9.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Some of China's wealthy coastal cities such as Shanghai continue to boom. But growth is expected to have slowed to 8.9% in the third quarter, according to a survey of 13 economists conducted by Dow Jones Newswires. Although the U.S. still drives the global economy, China's share of global trade -- now at 6% -- has tripled since the early 1990s, raising the prospect that a Chinese slowdown could have significant repercussions, according to the International Monetary Fund.

With many foreign companies counting on China's growth to drive sales, even slight economic blips are being felt in corporate boardrooms. GM last week blamed a lackluster third quarter in part on slowing sales in China, even though its units here continue to make money. Nokia Corp.'s revenue from mobile phones, which globally fell 13% for first nine months of 2004, have come under pressure in China amid a price war for market share.

Mobile-phone sales in China slumped 23% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, after nine straight months of growth. The decline came as mobile-phone shops cut down on their orders in anticipation of an economic slowdown, says Liu Wei, a marketing executive at Analysys International, a Chinese consulting company specializing in the information-technology and telecommunications industries. The pace of purchasing laptop computers also eased 6.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier after rising 36% in first three months, according to Analysys International.

The slowdown even is showing signs of hitting companies that sell basic consumer goods. Whirlpool Corp. of Benton Harbor, Mich., which reported a 3.8% drop in third-quarter net income yesterday, said slowing demand in China was partly to blame for an operating loss of $10 million in its Asian operations for the period.

Meanwhile, strong sales in China have boosted the recent fortunes of some. International Business Machines Corp. of Armonk, N.Y., said Monday that it enjoyed one of its best third quarters of earnings in years partly because of new business in China and Russia. New York's Corning Inc., a maker of ultrathin glass and other products, has experienced a boom in supply to producers of sleek computer and television screens. Yet reflecting how some sectors are suffering more than others, sales of ceramic materials for catalytic converters have tapered off with the auto industry's slowdown.

"This is part of China becoming a more mature market, and industries are doing it at different speeds," says Simon J. MacKinnon, president of Greater China for Corning. "Previous growth rates were unsustainable."

Auto companies are scrambling to adjust to the changing landscape. Several foreign auto makers quietly are paring production, including the Shanghai units of market leaders Volkswagen AG of Germany, and GM. Japan's Mitsubishi Motor Corp., citing a "change in business conditions," has scaled back its sales presence in China, closing four distributors and two branch offices. The move comes amid Mitsubishi's severe operating difficulties in Japan and the U.S but also reflects a less certain outlook for the Chinese market, said a Mitsubishi executive. Other car makers have revised 2004 forecasts downward. Italy's Fiat SpA is projecting flat passenger-car sales from a year earlier, according to an executive at Fiat's joint venture in Nanjing.

Topping the list of concerns is a sharp rise in inventories of unsold cars, which put pressure on dealers as well as auto makers. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates car inventories rose 115,000 in August from 80,000 for the first three months of 2004. "If you take a look at the industry, inventories are increasing -- pretty alarmingly, really," says Mr. Murtaugh of GM, which recently trimmed Shanghai GM's production of its popular Buick. "Over the last few months, we decided to hold production in line with sales," he says.

The slowdown also is rippling beyond the makers of automobiles to the companies that supply them with parts. Delphi Corp. of Troy, Mich., which reported a third-quarter loss of $114 million, has been squeezed by low-cost Chinese producers. Yet even ultracompetitive Chinese auto-parts suppliers, such as Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., have felt the pinch. Fuyao, China's largest maker of automobile glass, in August cut its work force by 17%, laying off 1,000 workers, according to Huang Zhongsheng, a senior manager.

He says such moves highlight efforts to bring down Fuyao's costs and ultimately could contribute to the industry's longer-term health with less-expensive cars spurring new buying. While China's auto industry enjoys low labor costs, tariffs on top imported parts tend to drive up sticker prices. "It's unreasonable for Chinese car prices to be so much higher than the rest of the world," he says.

Many Chinese urbanites, enamored with one day owning their own car, have refrained from buying in anticipation that prices still could go lower. But pockets of demand are apparent, especially in sedans priced below the luxury level. Sales at Guangzhou-Honda Automobile Co., maker of the Accord, rose 90% in the first nine months from a year earlier. Chang'an-Ford Automobile Co. saw sales more than triple over the same period as it began promoting its Mondeo.

VW remains the market leader, with roughly less than a third of the market, but its share has been eroding amid strong gains by other auto makers. Its FAW VW joint venture's sales declined roughly 3% in the first nine months from a year earlier, while sales at VW's Shanghai joint venture declined about 8%. The softening demand has prompted Shanghai Volkswagen to "make adjustments in its output," says Zeng Jialin, a spokesman for Shanghai VW.

Ford Motor Co., based in Dearborn, Mich., says the company is bracing for more market volatility in China and also could adjust production if sales slow. The company's joint-venture partner, Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., said yesterday that its third-quarter net profit fell 32% on the year, thanks to weak car sales. "We don't like the volatility," says Kenneth Hsu, a Ford China spokesman. "But we know it's something we have to live with."

By 2025, GM and others say, China could overtake the U.S. to become the world's largest car market. GM in June announced it would invest $3 billion over the next three years to more than double capacity. GM's Mr. Murtaugh, who continues to see "tremendous demand" in China for cars after sales grew 54% in the first nine months, says the company took into account that growth would slow when formulating its plans.

"We never based our plans on unrealistic growth expectations," he says. In the meantime, GM continues to roll out new models to try to tempt consumers back to the market. On Monday, Shanghai GM introduced its latest car aimed at Chinese yuppies, the Excelle HRV Hatchback, a model that combines Italian design and a price tag of $16,500.

Other car makers that have enjoyed an unusual combination of fast sales and fat profit margins say the recent pace of sales offers a more realistic picture of what to expect here on out, they say. "We believe it is quite normal," says Mr. Zeng of Shanghai VW, which recently knocked about $1,200 off its Santana model that retails for about $15,000. "This situation will last for a few years." 中国经济增长放缓 外国公司心生惶惑

销售突然放缓使得中国的汽车行业有了前所未有的一种危机感，这个中国经济中最亮的一盏灯看上去已有些黯淡，也使得中国这一迅速增长中市场的其他行业猛然间增大了心中的焦虑感。

连续两年增幅超过 50% 的中国汽车市场已戛然踩住了刹车。 9 月份中国的汽车销售量较上年同期下降了 3.6% ，这种月销售量低于上年同期的现象今年还是第一次出现。据行业协会中国汽车工业协会 (China Association for Automobile Manufacturers) 的数据， 9 月份中国最畅销几款车型的销售量较上年同期均有超过 50% 的跌幅。虽然今年前 9 个月的销售仍较上年同期有近 17% 的增长，但业内许多领域的增长动力已经消失。汽车行业的管理人士表示，中国政府限制信贷的措施也抑制了消费需求，制造商们为保持竞争力而降低新车售价则损害了利润水平。

“这主要是消费者的信心问题，”通用汽车 (General Motors Corp.) 中国公司首席执行长墨斐 (Philip F. Murtaugh) 表示，“当经济有些不佳，人们总是节制支出。”而且，汽油价格也在逐步攀升，给新车销售带来更多压力，虽然中国政府的控制使得国内油价大大低于国际价格。

中国汽车市场的不景气，使那些计划在中国投资数十亿美元以进行业务扩张的外国公司面临挑战。同时，全球汽车制造商有关 20 年后中国将成为世界最大的汽车市场的长期预言，也似乎不再那么让人全然信服。

第二季度中国经济较上年同期增长了 9.6% 。一些富裕的沿海城市如上海，仍在持续繁荣。但据接受道琼斯调查的 13 位经济学家的预期，第三季度经济增长已放缓至 8.9% 。虽然美国仍在推动全球经济，中国在国际贸易中的份额已较 90 年代初增长了两倍，达到 6% ，国际货币基金 (International Monetary Fund) 认为，这使得中国经济放缓的影响将大为增加。

由于有这么多外国公司指望中国成为其销售增长动力，中国经济哪怕出现些许问题都会成为公司董事会中讨论的焦点。上周，通用汽车将第三季度业绩的不如意就部分归咎于中国地区销售的放缓，虽然其中国子公司仍在盈利。诺基亚 (Nokia Corp.) 的全球手机收入今年前 9 个月下降了 13% ，也是因为受到中国市场价格战的压力。

在连续 9 个月增长后，中国第二季度的手机销售量较前一季度下降了 23% 。中国信息技术和电信咨询公司易观国际 (Analysys International) 的营销主管刘伟（音）表示，由于预计经济增长将会放缓，手机零售店减少了订单。根据易观国际的数据，第二季度台式电脑的销售量较上年同期下降了 6.3% ，第一季度为增长 36% 。

经济的放缓似乎还影响到了出售基本消费品的公司，如惠而浦 (Whirlpool Corp.) 周三公布第三季度净利润下降了 3.8% ，并将其亚洲业务这一季度出现 1,000 万美元的运营亏损部分归咎于中国市场的需求减缓。

与此同时，产品在中国市场上的旺销也给一些公司带来了福音。国际商业机器公司 (International Business Machines Corp.) 周一宣布，第三季度的收益情况是多年来最好的，这应部分归功于公司在中国和俄罗斯新推出的业务。超薄玻璃制造商纽约的康宁公司 (Corning Inc.) 也受益于超薄电脑和电视屏幕生产商需求的大增。但也有一些行业受到了负面影响，用于生产触媒转化器的陶瓷材料销售就受了汽车行业的拖累。

“这是中国市场日益成熟的一个标志，各个行业的发展速度不一样了，”康宁的大中华区总裁麦肯农 (Simon J. MacKinnon) 表示，“以前的增幅是难以维持的。”

汽车公司目前正努力应对市场的变迁。几家外国汽车制造商正在悄悄削减产量，包括市场领军人物大众汽车 (Volkswagen AG) 和通用汽车 (GM) 的上海子公司。日本三菱汽车 (Mitsubishi Motor Corp.) 以“商业环境变化”为由，缩减了在中国地区的销售力量，关闭了 4 家经销店和 2 个分办事处。此举虽与三菱汽车在日本和美国的业务遇到了严重的经营困难不无关系，但三菱汽车的一位管理人士表示，这也反映了中国市场的前景变得更不明朗。其他汽车制造商也向下修正了 2004 年的预期。意大利菲亚特公司 (Fiat SpA) 预计今年轿车的销售量将与上年持平，这是菲亚特南京合资企业的一位管理人士透露的。

最令人担忧的还属汽车库存的急剧增长，这不仅对汽车制造商是个压力，也让经销商感觉沉重。中国汽车工业协会估计，截至 8 月底汽车库存从第一季度末的 8 万辆增至了 11.5 万辆。“如果你看看汽车行业的状况，库存增加的确令人触目惊心，”通用汽车的墨斐表示，“过去几个月，我们决定将产量保持在与销售持平的水平。”上海通用汽车最近下调了受欢迎的别克 (Buick) 轿车的产量。

这种放缓也从汽车制造商传递至了汽车配件供应商。面临中国低成本制造商的竞争，德尔福公司 (Delphi Corp., DPH) 第三季度亏损 1.14 亿美元。但即使是最具竞争力的中国汽车配件供应商，如福耀玻璃 (Fuyao Glass Group Industry Co. Ltd.) ，也感到了痛楚。这家中国最大的汽车玻璃制造商 8 月份裁员 1,000 人，裁员幅度达到 17% 。

该公司高级经理黄中生（音）表示，这是福耀玻璃降低成本的大举动，有利于行业的中长期健康，汽车价格的下降可吸引更多人买车。虽然中国的汽车行业享受低劳动力成本的优势，但关键进口配件的关税也会将售价推高。他说：“中国的汽车价格比世界其他地方贵这么多是不合理的。”

梦想拥有私家车的许多中国都市人因为期待汽车价格将一降再降而持币观望。但需求依然明显，特别是定价低于豪华级的轿车。雅阁 (Accord) 的生产商广州本田汽车 (Guangzhou-Honda Automobile Co.) 的销售今年前 9 个月较上年同期增长了 90% 。正在促销蒙迪欧 (Mondeo) 轿车的长安福特汽车 (Chang'an-Ford Automobile Co.) 同期销售增长了两倍多。

大众汽车依然是市场的领军人物，市场占有率稍低于 1/3 ，但在其他汽车制造商的步步进逼下，其市场占有率呈现下降。其一汽 - 大众 (FAW VW) 合资企业今年前 9 个月的销售较上年同期下降了 2.8% ，而上海大众合资企业的销售下降了大约 8% 。上海大众的发言人曾家林（音）表示，需求的疲软也促使上海大众进行产量调整。

但福特汽车 (Ford Motor Co.) 表示，公司为中国市场出现更多的波动做好了准备，如果销售量下降，也可以调整产量。该公司的合资方重庆长安汽车 (Chongqing Changan Automobile Co.) 周三表示，第三季度净利润较上年同期下降了 32% ，原因是汽车销售疲软。“我们不喜欢市场的波动，”福特中国的发言人许国祯 (Kenneth Hsu) 表示，“但我们知道，我们必须适应这一点。”

通用汽车和其他公司预计，到 2025 年，中国可能就会超越美国成为全球最大的汽车市场。全球最大的汽车制造商通用汽车 6 月份宣布，未来 3 年将投资 30 亿美元将在华产能扩大一倍以上。通用汽车的墨斐在看到今年前 9 个月销售量增长 54% 后，继续看好中国庞大的汽车需求。他表示，公司在制定计划时就已考虑到了增速会放缓的可能。

“我们从来不基于不切实际的增长预期制定计划，”他说。与此同时，通用汽车继续推出新款车型，以试图吸引消费者重返市场。周一，上海通用汽车推出了旨在吸引中国雅皮一族的凯越 HRV 两厢轿车，这款融合了意大利设计的车型售价 16,500 美元。

其他一贯坐享销量劲增和丰厚利润的汽车生产商们表示，最近的销售速度提供了一个更实际的持续前景。“我们相信，这非常正常，”上海大众的曾家林表示，“这种状况将持续几年。”上海大众最近将桑塔纳 (Santana) 轿车的售价调低了 1,200 美元。