Abe Has Remedy To Spur Japan: Open Up More Population Decline Creates
Hurdles for the Economy; A Foreign-Investment Drive
TOKYO -- Japan's new prime minister has an ambitious plan for spurring the economy and helping the country forge a place for itself in the hothouse of East Asia. He wants Japan to throw off its reputation as an island nation that shies away from international affairs and shuns foreigners and their businesses, and instead open up to the world.
Shinzo Abe, who in September became leader of the world's second-largest economy, took over a country that has recovered from a decade-plus slump but still faces long-term problems. With the population declining, there are progressively fewer Japanese to produce and consume, making it increasingly harder for the economy to expand. That trend might eventually lead to lower standards of living and a decline in international influence.
Meanwhile, relations with Japan's neighbors have been tetchy, raising questions about the security of a nation that has thrived for 60 years by spending relatively little on its military. Japan disputes some maritime gas fields with China, which has increased military spending and whose economy could be bigger than Japan's in a decade or two. Staunchly anti-Japanese North Korea recently tested missiles and then a nuclear device.
Mr. Abe has been giving a series of interviews with foreign media this week. Talking to The Wall Street Journal, he outlined his broad solution for Japan's myriad problems: greater openness and a more active role in international affairs. That would be a major change for Japan, which thrived after World War II by shying away from international affairs and promoting exports while restricting imports.
"It's been over 60 years since the war, and 60 years marks one generation," said Mr. Abe, who at 52 is Japan's youngest leader since the war and the first to have been born after the war. "I'd like to start working on creating a new nation, looking at the next 60 to 100 years."
Mr. Abe scored high marks in his first month in office, swiftly visiting Beijing and Seoul to mend chilly political relations. It isn't clear yet whether Mr. Abe will succeed in his economic mission. His plans are still vague and in their early stages. What is more, Mr. Abe is taking over at a time when there are few short-term economic problems, which may make the longer-term issues appear less pressing.
'OUR RELATIONSHIP IS AN INSEPARABLE ONE'
Read excerpts of the interview with Shinzo Abe, including comments on improving Japan-China relations, the importance of being an open country and his opposition to raising the consumption tax despite ballooning debt.One reason for the need to open up is Japan's national debt, which is equivalent to 175% of gross domestic product -- compared with 64% for the U.S. The cost of servicing this debt is pushing the total even higher. An expanding economy could generate higher tax revenue, but with fewer people working and paying taxes as the population shrinks, the only solution is to make each person more productive.
"There can be no rebuilding of national finances without growth," Mr. Abe said. "That's why we need more innovation and openness to raise productivity, and increase tax revenues."
Among Mr. Abe's plans is to bring more foreign companies to Japan to help boost growth. Japan's foreign direct investment was equivalent to just 1% of GDP in 2003, compared with 25% for the U.S. and 43% for France. Mr. Abe said he plans to look at regulations that might make it difficult for foreign businesses to set up in Japan, and at the current system of regulating mergers and acquisitions.
On China, Mr. Abe said he hopes the countries can embark on energy projects together. The two countries dispute some islands in the East China Sea, which Japan calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu. These are close to gas fields that both countries want to develop. "Japan and China are both energy importers," Mr. Abe said. "So it would be best if, instead of trying to take energy off each other, they cooperated."
He also said a free-trade agreement with China was "within my field of vision" -- though a condition would be for China to better protect intellectual-property rights.
Mr. Abe already has set up some original cabinet portfolios that he hopes will help flesh out his vision. He appointed a minister in charge of "innovation" and put the economy minister in charge of "second chance" programs: Mr. Abe thinks Japanese entrepreneurs should be encouraged to pick themselves up and learn from their mistakes as they can in the U.S. In Japan, failure tends to be seen as shameful and marks a businessman as someone not to be trusted again with venture capital. Mr. Abe also wants more Japanese to be able to take a midcareer break to go to graduate school.
"I want to give people chances at different ages," he said. "That will revitalize Japan."
安倍晋三给日本经济开出开放良方
日本新任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)制定了一份雄心勃勃的计划，要在刺激日本经济增长的同时、帮助日本确立在敏感的东亚地区的地位。他想让日本摆脱不愿参与国际事务、将外国人及他们的企业拒之门外的岛国形像，向外部世界敞开怀抱。
安倍晋三9月份出任日本首相。他上任时，作为全球第二大经济体的日本正从十多年的衰退中重新焕发活力，但它仍然面临诸多长期问题。随着日本人口不断下降，从事生产及进行消费的日本人也将日益减少，日本经济继续扩张因此将变得越来越困难。如果这种趋势持续下去，最终将导致人民生活水平下降，并会降低国家的国际影响力。
与此同时，日本与几个邻国的关系一直处于紧张状态，对于一个在经济繁荣发展的60年时间里军费开支较少的国家，这无疑会引起它安全方面的担忧。日本与中国就一些海上油气田存在争议，而后者不断增加军费开支，其经济在10年或20年内也许还会超过日本。另外，反日情绪坚定的朝鲜最近进行了导弹及核试验。
安倍晋三本周接受了众多外国媒体的采访。在接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)采访时，他概述了应对日本种种问题的总体解决方案：进一步对外开放以及在国际事务中发挥更加积极的作用。这对日本来说是一个重大的变化。在二战后，日本通过远离国际事务、促进出口同时限制进口实现了经济的腾飞。
相关报导
? 安倍晋三结束访华
? 安倍晋三展开东亚外交攻势
“二战已经过去60年了，60年代表着一代人，”安倍晋三说，“我要着眼于未来60年或100年，努力创造一个新国家。”现年52岁的安倍晋三是日本自二战以来最年轻的首相，也是首位在战后出生的国家领导人。
安倍晋三上任的第一个月获得了众多好评。他先后访问了北京及首尔，修复与这些国家的政治关系。不过，安倍晋三能否成功完成他的经济使命还很难说。他的计划仍然很模糊，而且都处于初期阶段。另外，安倍晋三上任时日本经济面临的短期问题寥寥，而如果存在短期问题，日本的长期问题也许还不会显得那么紧迫。
日本经济需要开放的原因之一是其庞大的国家债务。目前日本的国家债务相当于其国内生产总值(GDP)的175%，而美国为64%。再加上需要支付的利息，债务总金额甚至更高。经济不断扩张能够带来更多的税收收入，但是由于日本人口不断下降，导致工作及纳税的人口不断减少，因此唯一的解决方法就是提高每个人的生产率。
安倍晋三说，没有经济增长就无法重建国家财政。这也是我们需要更多创新和开放来提高生产率、进而增加税收的原因。
吸引更多外资公司进入日本以促进经济增长是安倍晋三经济发展计划之一。日本2003年的外国直接投资仅相当于当年GDP的1%，而美国为25%，法国为43%。安倍晋三表示，他计划修改那些阻碍外国企业进入日本的监管法规、以及现行的合并收购监管体系。
谈到中国时，安倍晋三说，他希望两国能够开展能源项目合作。两国就位于东中国海的几个岛屿存在争议（日本称之为尖阁群岛(Senkaku)，中国称之为钓鱼岛）。这些岛屿靠近中国和日本都想开发的数个气田。“日本和中国都是能源进口国，”安倍晋三说，“因此如果两国能够进行合作，而不是相互争夺能源，那就再好不过了。”
他还说，与中国签订自由贸易协定在“我的愿景之内”－－不过，前提条件是中国要更好地保护知识产权。
安倍晋三已经任命了多位内阁部长，希望他们能帮助他充实远景规划。他任命一位部长专门负责“创新”，并且让经济产业大臣负责一系列让企业家们“东山再起”的项目。安倍晋三认为，应该鼓励日本初创企业家在跌倒的地方重新爬起来，从他们所犯的错误中吸取经验。在日本，失败常常被看作一种耻辱，而且会使初创企业家失去风险投资的信任。安倍晋三还希望更多的日本人能够在职业发展中期暂时从工作中走出来，进入研究生学院充电学习。
“我想给不同年龄的人们各种发展机会，”他说，“这会使日本重新焕发活力。”
Sebastian Moffett
