Europe's Deals Could Surpass U.S.'s In Value
LONDON -- Barring a sudden shift in deal making, the value of European corporate takeovers is on course to eclipse that of the U.S. market for the first time in four years.
A surge in bids from emerging-market investors and a deluge in so-called infrastructure deals have fueled a mergers and acquisitions boom in Europe. Four of the five biggest takeovers globally have targeted European companies, primarily in the utilities and steelmaking sectors. Bankers say the heavy European bias in big-value deals reflects widespread fragmentation across many sectors.
"The U.S. has achieved a degree of consolidation across many sectors," observed Carlo Calabria, head of European M&A at Merrill Lynch in London. "Europe is behind, but it's catching up."
By one measure, Europe is slightly ahead. With two months to go before the end of the year, European-targeted takeovers have totaled $1.15 trillion through Monday, just ahead of $1.14 trillion of deals involving U.S. companies, according to Thomson Financial, which tracks deals data. The U.S. traditionally has outpaced Europe, but this year's European total nearly equals the record full-year total set of $1.2 trillion in 1999.
While bankers caution that Europe's $15 billion lead over the U.S. could evaporate with a blockbuster transaction or even a few major deals, they contend that European deal pipelines remain strong.
Gavin MacDonald, head of European M&A at Morgan Stanley in London, noted one factor that may be playing to the U.S.'s favor: the dearth of large-scale private-equity transactions in Europe because of growing resistance to offers from company boards.
"You aren't yet seeing the big public-to-private deals here that you have seen in the U.S.," he said.
Indeed, Europe's biggest private-equity deal this year, the $11.6 billion buyout of Dutch media and information company VNU NV in January, wouldn't have made it into the top five U.S. private-equity transactions this year.
Another cloud hanging over European M&A has been a rise in protectionism, driven by governments disturbed by the threat of foreign ownership in important sectors. Governments in Spain, France, Italy and Poland all intervened in cross-border bids, although in most cases they appear to have only delayed deals, rather than blocking them.
"Protectionism is certainly increasing," said Peter Charlton, global head of M&A at law firm Clifford Chance in London, "but as we've seen in Europe, we feel the economic forces driving M&A will prove irresistible."
Paulo Pereira, a partner in investment bank boutique Perella Weinberg Partners in London, credits much of Europe's bustling M&A market on political and monetary reforms undertaken in the 1990s. Privatizations in such sectors as telecommunications and energy during this period also helped unleash the forces that have fed the takeover culture.
"It takes a long time to catch up on delayed restructuring and consolidation," he said. "We are not even halfway there."
Much of Europe's M&A strength this year has come from two areas: a hunger for transport and utility assets because of the steady cash flows they offer, and Asian and Middle Eastern investors, the latter fortified by oil-related earnings.
These transport and utility companies, which control what are known collectively as infrastructure assets, have been particularly hot targets. So far this year, deals valued at $95.2 billion have been chalked up, against just $9.39 billion in all of 2005, according to Thomson Financial. U.K. airports, Italian highways and Spanish electricity suppliers have all found new or prospective owners.
"At the beginning of 2006, we were expecting hedge funds to be major catalysts of M&A activity. In fact, it's been the infrastructure fund buyers," said Peter Tague, head of European M&A at Citigroup in London.
Middle Eastern and Asian investors have also become big buyers. Last month, India's Tata Steel launched a $10.5 billion offer, including debt, for Corus Group PLC, an Anglo-Dutch steel maker almost four times its size by output.
Overall, investors in Brazil, India, China and the Middle East alone have made bids for European companies valued at $74 billion -- almost three times the $27.7 billion figure for all of 2005, according to Thomson.
To many M&A practitioners, Europe's renaissance is here to stay.
"Many sectors are still in their infancy in terms of consolidation," Mr. Pereira of Perella Weinberg said. He said he considers European telecoms, utilities and financial services as businesses ripe for further takeovers and predicts some big merger-of-equal deals as the current M&A cycle matures.
欧洲并购交易规模有望超过美国
从目前形势看，欧洲今年的并购交易规模有望超过美国，除非美国方面有重大交易突然降临。这将是最近4年来的第一次。
新兴市场投资者高涨的热情以及基础设施领域涌现的交易热浪在欧洲激发起一波并购热潮。今年全球规模最大的5起并购交易中有4起是针对欧洲企业的，这些企业主要集中在公用事业和钢铁制造领域。银行家们表示，大额交易向欧洲的倾斜折射出欧洲许多行业普遍存在着分散化的问题。
美林公司(Merrill Lynch)驻伦敦的欧洲并购部门负责人卡罗?卡拉伯瑞(Carlo Calabria)说，美国在许多领域都已实现了一定程度的整合。在这方面欧洲落后了，不过它正在迎头赶上。而且，今年在交易额方面，欧洲还略有领先。
相关报导
? 新一轮并购交易热潮掀开序幕
据来自Thomson Financial的数据，在离年底还有两个月的时候，涉及欧洲公司的并购交易总额已经达到1.15万亿美元，而涉及美国公司的交易总额是1.14亿美元。在此之前美国的并购交易额通常是高于欧洲的。而且，欧洲今年迄今为止的交易额已接近1999年全年的水平，欧洲那一年1.2万亿美元的并购交易额创下了历史最高纪录。
虽然银行家们提醒说，只消一笔轰动的大交易或几笔相当规模的交易，欧洲在并购交易总额上较美国领先的150亿美元就会被轻松抹去，不过，他们也承认欧洲的交易潜力还是很强劲的。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley )驻伦敦的欧洲并购部门负责人盖文?麦克唐纳(Gavin MacDonald)指出，有一个因素或许对美国比较有利，那就是欧洲很少有大规模的股权投资交易，因为欧洲企业的董事会对并购提议越来越抵 。
他说，在欧洲，还没有见到像美国那种大型上市公司私有化的交易。
的确如此。今年一月，荷兰媒体及信息公司VNU NV被股权投资公司买断，交易价格是116亿美元，这是欧洲今年最大的一笔股权交易，但其交易额在美国甚至还排不进前五名。
欧洲并购市场上空笼罩的另一片阴影是日益高涨的保护主义，这一思潮的起因是，一些国家的政府因重要领域受到外资持股的威胁而深感不安。西班牙、法国、意大利和波兰等国政府都曾对跨境交易作出干预，虽然在多数案例中他们并未能最终阻止交易，而只是导致交易被拖延而已。
伦敦律师事务所Clifford Chance的并购事务全球主管彼德?查尔顿(Peter Charlton)说，保护主义势力的确在加强，但欧洲的情况表明，经济领域推动并购的内在力量将是不可阻挡的。
伦敦投资银行Perella Weinberg Partners的合伙人保拉?佩雷拉(Paulo Pereira)将欧洲并购市场的繁荣大部分归功于各国在九十年代进行的政治和金融改革。这期间在电信、能源等领域进行的私有化改革也使并购文化所赖以生存的力量得到了释放。
他说，欧洲在重组和整合方面已经落后，要追赶上来还需要很长时间，现在连一半的差距也没补上。
今年欧洲的并购力量主要来自两个方面，一是市场对交通和公用事业资产的渴求，原因是这些资产能提供稳定的现金流；一是亚洲和中东地区的投资者。石油带来的高利润让中东投资者的实力大大增强。
交通和公用事业公司（他们控制着所谓基础设施资产）一直都是特别受追捧的目标。据Thomson Financial的数据，今年以来，这一领域的并购交易额已达952亿美元，而2005年全年的交易额不过93.9亿美元。英国的机场、意大利的高速公路及西班牙的电厂都找到了新的或未来的东家。
花旗集团(Citigroup)驻伦敦的欧洲并购部门主管彼德?泰格(Peter Tague)说，今年初的时候，该行预计对冲基金将是并购交易的主要发起方，但实际上，买家主要是针对基础设施的投资基金。
中东和亚洲投资者也是大买家。上月，印度Tata Steel出价105亿美元收购英-荷钢铁生产商Corus Group PLC（含其债务）。以产量计，Corus Group的规模接近Tata的4倍。
来自巴西、印度、中国和中东的投资者向欧洲企业提出的并购交易出价合计达到了740亿美元，而2005年全年的数字是277亿美元。
在许多从事并购交易的投行人士看来，欧洲并购市场的复兴还将持续。
佩雷拉说，许多领域的整合期才刚刚开始。他认为欧洲的电信、公用事业和金融服务业发生更多并购的条件已经成熟，他还预计，随着本轮并购周期逐渐发展，将出现一些大规模的平等合并交易。
Michael Wang
