Manila's Time to Rise and Shine Philippine Shares Soar
As Fiscal Overhaul Attracts Investment
Previously known as Asia's chronic underachiever, the Philippine stock market is sizzling these days, and analysts say there is room for more gains as President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo moves to rein in foreign borrowing and clamp down on spending.
Shares at the Philippine Stock Exchange are trading near their highest levels in nine years. The benchmark index has risen 29% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the fastest-rising markets in Asia. The peso is strengthening against the dollar, adding to the returns of dollar-based investors and lending confidence to a country more accustomed to financial crises and violent political upheavals.
The highflying financial markets haven't suddenly improved the fortunes of the Philippines' 89 million people. Security officials in Manila say the world's longest-running communist insurgency is gathering steam, while right-wing death squads roam the countryside, shooting the communists' alleged sympathizers. More urban Filipinos than ever before are seeking work abroad.
Economists also complain the government isn't doing enough to improve the Philippines' tattered infrastructure. In Makati, Manila's financial district, the mayor's decision to barricade himself in his office surrounded by thousands of supporters instead of allowing the government to investigate claims of corruption serves as a reminder that Philippine politics remain as volatile as ever.
The buoyant stock market, driven by falling interest rates and increasing confidence in Manila's financial management, is unleashing a spurt in business activity. Banks are offering 25-year mortgages at fixed rates for the first time, while companies are obtaining long-term loans at rates they never could have secured last year. This in turn is stimulating investment and raising expectations of improved corporate results and higher stock prices.
Gilbert Lopez, an analyst at Macquarie Securities in Manila, predicts the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index will hit 2880 in the next 12 months, up 6% from Tuesday's close of 2708.50. (Philippine markets were closed yesterday for a holiday.) He says the index could even breach that by the end of 2006. "The Philippines is testing new territory," he says.
Analysts trace the strong performance to a series of financial overhauls Ms. Arroyo pushed through Congress in early 2005. Most important, she signed an unpopular law that widened the scope and increased the rate of a sales tax. That stoked the ire of Ms. Arroyo's political opponents. Earlier this year, some rebel soldiers tried to stage a coup, hoping that popular anger over the tax would ensure their success.
It didn't. The planned coup was too badly organized to have much impact. But the new tax did a lot to revive international confidence in the Philippines, which had developed a dependence on foreign borrowing to make up for shoddy tax collection and a large budget deficit. The Philippines is Asia's second-largest issuer of sovereign debt after Japan.
Since then, the Philippines' stock market has surged. "If it wasn't for Ms. Arroyo pushing through the tax, we wouldn't be where we are now," says Edgar Bancod, head of research at ATR-Kim Eng Securities in Manila.
Yesterday at a media briefing in Hong Kong, Ms. Arroyo said the peso could increase further following its recent gains, because of the country's strong economy. The peso has been at nearly a four-year high against the dollar on brisk buying from overseas Filipino workers. Ms. Arroyo declined to comment on whether there would be intervention in the currency market, citing the independence of the Philippine central bank.
Analysts say it is possible that in the short term, the stock market could see some profit-taking. But the longer-term trend is for gains as investors rotate around different sectors. So what is the best way to get a lift from the market's second wind?
Many investors are focusing on consumer-related stocks driven by strong domestic demand and the $12 billion in remittances the central bank expects expatriate Filipinos to send home this year. Shopping-mall developer SM Prime Holdings is the top pick for Macquarie, which expects the stock to reach 9.20 pesos (18 U.S. cents) a share in the next few months. It closed at 9.10 pesos Tuesday.
Macquarie Securities also likes cellular provider Globe Telecom, which has a 12-month target price of 1,250 pesos and closed at 1,120 pesos Tuesday. Mr. Bancod has his eye on Universal Robina Corp., which manufactures snack foods and sells them across Southeast Asia and China. In the Philippines, it has introduced a bottled ice tea that has proved a resounding hit.
The company's stock hasn't budged much, largely because it is part of a group controlled by the Gokongwei family, which some analysts have accused of using successful businesses to bail out other, faltering ventures. Mr. Bancod says companies in the Gokongwei stable are more professionally run and more attuned to minority shareholders. A representative of the family couldn't be reached to comment.
"The problems of the past are legacy issues as far as we are concerned," Mr. Bancod says. And in the next few months, he expects URC shares to reach 30 pesos a share, compared with 21.50 pesos a share on Tuesday.
菲律宾股市阳光照耀
在亚洲各国股市中，菲律宾股市一直都是表现很差的一个，但近来它却异常火爆。分析师们说，鉴于阿罗约总统(Gloria Macapagal Arroyo)采取的限制对外借贷和压缩开支的措施，菲律宾市场还将有更大上升空间。
眼下，菲律宾股市已接近9年高点。自年初以来，其基准指数已上涨29%，成为同期亚洲各市场的涨幅冠军。同时，由于菲律宾比索兑美元汇率上升，让那些以美元兑现回报的投资者斩获更多，也给这个饱受金融危机和政局动荡打击的国家平添很大信心。
不过，金融市场的繁荣并不能立刻改变8,900万菲律宾人民的命运。马尼拉安全部门官员说，长期与政府对抗的菲律宾共产党游击队近来声势日渐高涨，而在乡村地区，右翼敢死队也在到处活动，捉杀那些据信同情共产党的人。现在，希望到国外工作的城市居民比任何时候都多。
经济学家还批评政府未能采取足够措施改善菲律宾破旧的基础设施。在菲律宾金融中心马卡蒂市，遭到停职的市长守在自己的办公楼里，他不愿让有关部门对腐败问题进行调查，他的数千名支持者包围在办公楼周围，这种局面提醒人们，菲律宾政局仍动荡如常。
由于利率下降，并且人们对马尼拉金融业监管的信心有所加强，菲律宾股市表现活跃，并刺激了商业活动。银行业首次推出了25年期固定利率贷款，企业也得以以去年根本不可能享受的低利率借到长期贷款。这反过来刺激了投资，并推高了人们对未来企业业绩改善和股价上涨的预期。
麦格理银行(Macquarie Securities)驻马尼拉分析师吉尔伯特?洛佩兹(Gilbert Lopez)预计，未来12个月之内，基准的菲律宾证交所指数将触及2880点，较周二收盘点位2708.50点还有6%的上涨空间（昨日菲律宾股市因逢假日休市）。洛佩兹说，上述目标甚至有可能在年底前就达到。他说，菲律宾股市正在试探新的高度。
分析师将股市的强劲表现归因于阿罗约总统2005年初敦促国会通过了一系列金融改革立法。最重要的是，阿罗约签署了一项遭到很多人反对的扩大消费税征收范围并上调税率的法令。这一举动让反对阿罗约的政治派别大为恼火。今年早些时候，部分叛乱士兵试图发动政变，希望借助公众对消费税的不满推翻阿罗约的统治。
不过他们未能如愿。计划进行的政变由于组织工作太差而没能产生明显效果。但新税法却大大激发了国际市场对菲律宾的信心。由于征税工作不力且存在大量预算赤字，菲律宾一直非常依赖外债。在亚洲各国中，菲律宾的主权债券发行规模排在第二位，仅次于日本。
自此以后，菲律宾的股市大幅上涨。ATR-Kim Eng Securities驻马尼拉研究部的负责人埃德加?班科德(Edgar Bancod)表示，“如果不是阿罗约推动税收改革，股市不可能有今天的形势。”
阿罗约周三在香港的一个媒体吹风会上表示，菲律宾的经济增长势头强劲，因此尽管最近比索汇率走强，但仍有上涨空间。因海外菲律宾劳工兑换比索交易活跃，比索兑美元汇率已接近四年高点。在被问及政府是否会干预外汇市场时，阿罗约拒绝发表评论，称菲律宾央行有其独立性。
分析师表示，菲律宾股市短期内可能出现获利回吐。不过随着投资者在各行业类股间转移投资，股市的长期前景依然良好。那么，如何从菲律宾股市的第二轮上涨中获利呢？
许多投资者都在关注消费相关类股，这类股票受强劲的国内需求以及今年海外菲律宾劳工汇回国内的120亿美元汇款推动。麦格理最看好的是商场开发商鞋庄控股(SM Prime Holdings Inc.)，它预计该股在未来几个月将涨至每股9.20比索（合18美分）。该股周二的收盘价为9.10比索。
麦格理证券还看好移动通讯供应商Globe Telecom，该股12月目标价为1,250比索，周二收于1,120比索。班科德看好环球罗宾娜(Universal Robina Corp.)，这是一家生产休闲食品的公司，产品销往东南亚和中国。该公司在菲律宾推出了一种瓶装冰茶饮料，获得了极大成功。
这家公司的股价近来并没有太大变化，这很大程度上是因为该公司所属集团由吴奕辉(Gokongwei)家族所有，有分析师批评吴奕辉家族借助旗下比较成功的企业来挽救其他亏损企业。班科德说，吴奕辉家族企业的经营管理更为专业，也更注重协调少数股东的利益。记者无法联系到吴奕辉家族代表置评。
班科德表示，“在我们看来，过去的问题是历史遗留问题。”他预计在未来几个月，环球罗宾娜将涨至每股30比索，而该股周二的收盘价为21.50比索。
James Hookway
