The robot era is coming
Just about anything seems possible in the world of robotics these days to judge by the surreal scenes last weekend at RoboNexus, the world's first consumer robot expo, in the heart of Silicon Valley.
A weightlifter wearing an “exoskeleton” machine suit meant to make him stronger lifted more than 1,000lbs. Two sumo robots, following rules resembling Japanese wrestling, tried to force each other out of a circular arena. Humanoid robots danced and cartwheeled for appreciative audiences. Thronged by more than 10,000 visitors of all ages, the trade show buzzed with a sense that robots are about to cross a new commercial threshold but no-one could say exactly how. Few exhibitors had a clear idea of which technology, product or business model would catch the imagination of the consumer market.
RoboNexus was, in effect, a coming-out party for an industry whose sales are expected to double from 2002 to 2005, reaching more than $5bn in 2005 and as much as $17bn by 2010.
Silicon Valley veterans said the atmosphere recalled the early days of Comdex, the Las Vegas computer show that became the technology industry's main annual event before the downturn.
“It has the same kind of feel; the same kind of buzzing energy,” said Jim Wright, a Sun Microsystems senior engineer who attended many early Comdex shows.
White Box Robotics is a small start-up that exemplifies an industry in search of itself. For about $1,000, White Box Robotics will sell a stripped-down personal computer built on top of a robotic drive train. Consumers must install a hard drive and operating software, as well as modify the unit to suit specific needs.
For example, the owner could add a camera and speakers, as well as speech and voice recognition software, enabling the unit to serve as a security robot or to monitor elderly patients by remote.
Tim Novak, White Box Robotics spokesman, said the robots could do more if customers put in an MP3 music player, a wireless keyboard and monitor, or even a tread-based drive train.
But ask him what these units will do for consumers what “killer app” (application) will make these robots indispensable and he shrugs, adding that the company hopes customers will lead the way: “We want to know what people are doing. We're going directly to the market to act as our research and development arm.” Dean Kamen, inventor of the Segway scooter, said the pioneer mentality was all-too evident at RoboNexus. “That's what's exciting about all new industries. You almost always get it wrong at first,” he said.
iRobot, maker of the Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner, did not get it wrong. The company scored an early hit more than 1m Roombas sold by building a reasonably priced, single-purpose robot that performs a household chore most people hate.
The company hopes to replicate its success with new consumer products, but it has been coy about future products. Many at the show suggested iRobot would soon market a robot lawn mower, while others wistfully mused about robot bathroom cleaners and window washers.
Dan Kara, founder of Robotics Trends, the market research firm behind RoboNexus, said a new generation of service and consumer robotics companies was trying to emulate early industrial robot makers.
Several healthcare robots are already carrying equipment and shuffling medicines in hospitals countrywide, but Mr Kara said the vast consumer market has the potential for much greater rewards.
Mr Kara chose to come to Silicon Valley because it is home to many of the best researchers, as well as a large number of venture capital firms and trend-setting enthusiasts.
Representatives from some of Silicon Valley's corporate giants took advantage of the opportunity to promote their views. Mr Wright, the Sun engineer, says his company hopes its Java programming language will be used to programme robots and connect them to the internet.
While many industry insiders agree that Linux, the free open-source operating system, is emerging as the de facto standard, a Microsoft representative was on hand to talk of his company's support for PC-based university robotics research. Organisers said almost 300 venture capitalists, investment bankers and financial planners were milling about to soak up the new technologies. In the eyes of some, RoboNexus provided a unique opportunity.
“This is like Comdex in 1980,” said Donald Morgan, a Smith Barney financial planner. “Who wouldn't want to have invested in microprocessors back then?”
机器人时代来了
最近，硅谷腹地召开了世界首届民用机器人展──RoboNexus。在展览进行的这几天里，一幕幕梦幻般的演示让参观者感到，在这个机器人的世界里，似乎没有什么是不可能的。
比如，一个举重机器人身着形似“外骨骼”的机器“外衣”。这件“外衣”能使“他”更为强壮，举起1000多磅的重物。再如，两个相扑机器人，照着日式摔跤的规则，试着把对方摔出圆形的比赛场地之外。又如，类人机器人又是跳舞，又做侧手翻，为观众卖力地表演。展览场地聚集着老老少少一万多人，人们似乎感到机器人将会开拓出一个新市场，至于如何开拓，则无人能说。几乎没有参展者明确知道何种技术、何种产品或何种商业模型能赢得消费市场的青睐。
事实上，RoboNexus机器人展只是机器人产业正式登台前的“首映礼”。据估计，机器人产业在2002年至2005年的销售额将翻一番。到2005年，销售额将超过50亿美元，到2010年，将超过170亿美元。
硅谷的老手们说，展会上的这种氛围让人回想起当年拉斯维加斯Comdex IT展的情景。在IT业走下坡路之前，那是业内的年度盛事。
美国Sun Microsystems公司的高级工程师吉姆?赖特（Jim Wright）曾参加过多次Comdex IT展，他说：“RoboNexus机器人展也让人有类似的感觉，即那种闹哄哄的，充满动力的感觉。
美国White Box Robotics公司是一家新成立的小公司，从它身上折射出机器人产业寻求发展道路的历程。一台安装在智能动力传动系统顶端的朴素型个人电脑，公司标价为1000美元。用户需安装一个硬盘和操作系统，还要对电脑稍作改造以满足特定的需求。
例如，用户可以在电脑上安装摄像头、扬声器和语音识别软件，使其充当智能保安或远程看管老年病人。
White Box Robotics公司的代言人蒂姆?诺瓦克（Tim Novak）说，如果用户在电脑上安装MP3播放器、无线键盘、监视器或踏板式动力传动系统，那机器人能做的事就更多了。
但问道这些智能机器人能为消费者做些什么，它们有什么用途能让消费者感到它们是必不可少的帮手时，诺瓦克先生耸了耸肩，补充说，公司希望消费者能为此指明方向。他说：“我们想知道人们正在做些什么。我们要直面市场，让市场充当我们的研发导向。” 赛格威电动滑板车（Segway scooter）的发明者迪安?卡门（Dean Kamen）说，在RoboNexus机器人展上，标新立异的心态是再明显不过的。他说：“这是所有新兴产业令人兴奋的地方：一开始，你总是没能选对方向。”
但推出了一款机器人吸尘器──“屋巴”（Roomba）的美国iRobot公司却没有选错方向。该款吸尘器价格合理，功能明确，让大多数人摆脱了他们最为痛恨的家务的困扰，所以销售量超过了100万台，iRobot公司因此大获全胜。
该公司希望继续推出新的民用机器人，再获佳绩，但对于产品的具体内容，它却始终含糊其词。展会上，许多人表示，iRobot公司也许马上就会推出智能割草机，而其他人非常渴望公司能推出智能浴室清洁器和智能窗户清洗器。
Robotics Trends公司的创办人丹?卡拉（Dan Kara）说，新一代服务型和民用机器人生产商正努力赶超早期的工业机器人制造商。Robotics Trends公司是一家市场研究公司，也是RoboNexus机器人展的幕后支持者。
一些保健机器人已在全国各大医院帮忙搬仪器和运药品，但卡拉先生说，广大民用市场能够带来更为丰厚的回报。
卡拉先生选择硅谷是因为这里集中了众多一流的研究人员、风险资本公司和标新立异的弄潮儿。
一些硅谷巨头的代表也借此次展览会之际宣传他们的理念。美国Sun Microsystems公司的高级工程师赖特先生说，Sun公司希望它的Java编程语言能用于机器人的编程并将它们与互联网连接。
许多业内人士都认为能够免费使用和自由传播的Linux操作系统正逐渐成为真正的标准系统，但微软公司（Microsoft）的一名现场代表却说，微软支持基于个人电脑的大学机器人研究项目。此次展览会的承办者表示，近300名风险资本家、投资银行家和财务策划师都在寻找利用这些新技术的出路。在某些人看来，此次展览会就提供了一个独特的契机。
史密斯巴尼财务证券公司（Smith Barney）的财务策划师唐纳德?摩根（Donald Morgan）说：“RoboNexus机器人展就像是1980年的Comdex IT展。如果回到当初，还有谁不想投资微处理器呢？”
