Relax, You've Got Plenty of Time
Take your time.
Before you plunk down money for any investment, you should think carefully about when you will need your money back. And if you do that, you will likely come to a surprising conclusion: Often, your time horizon is a whole lot longer than you imagined -- and you don't need to be quite so cautious with your portfolio.
To understand why, consider the four big financial goals: funding retirement, paying for college, preparing for financial emergencies and buying a house.
Keeping It Working
People often have a target amount they want to amass by retirement. That drives them not only to save like crazy as they approach their 60s, but also to load up on bonds, money-market funds and certificates of deposit, so they have a heap of cash available on the day they call it quits.
But, of course, these folks won't spend their entire nest egg on a single day. Instead, once retired, they might draw down their portfolio over 20 or 30 years.
So how much cash do you need on the day you retire? I often suggest that each year retirees look to withdraw 5% of their portfolio's beginning-of-year value. For instance, if your nest egg is worth $400,000 at the start of the year, you would withdraw 5% of that amount, or $20,000, over the next 12 months.
You can garner your 5% through dividends, interest and occasionally selling investments. Part of this money will be owed in taxes, so don't bank on spending the entire 5%.
Even though you are withdrawing just 5% each year, I would keep more than 5% of your portfolio in cash. My advice: Stash 25% of your portfolio in money-market funds and short-term bond funds, so you have enough set aside to cover the next five years of retirement withdrawals.
Meanwhile, invest the other 75% for long-term growth, by sticking maybe 25% in a mix of high-quality intermediate-term bonds, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds and high-yield junk bonds and the remaining 50% in a collection of blue-chip, small-company and foreign stock mutual funds.
The growth from these riskier investments will likely come in handy. After all, during the course of a 20- or 30-year retirement, consumer prices could easily double, so you will want your income to keep pace. Indeed, because of the threat from inflation, keeping everything in low-risk investments is -- ironically -- probably the riskiest thing you can do.
Getting Educated
As with your retirement savings, you won't spend your daughter's entire college account on a single day. Rather, you will likely draw down her savings over four years.
This brings me to a popular rule of thumb: Once you are within five years of a financial goal, any money you plan to spend should be completely out of stocks. There's a good reason for this rule. Over some five-year stretches, stocks have lost money.
In fact, we have just had a couple of these rough spells. According to Chicago's Ibbotson Associates, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index lost a cumulative 3% over both the five years ended in December 2002 and the five years ended in December 2003. If you wait too long to unload your stocks, you could get caught up in one of these rotten patches and find yourself selling shares at fire-sale prices.
How should you use the five-year rule when handling your daughter's college account? Suppose you plan to put a quarter of her money toward each of her four college years.
With that goal in mind, you might move a quarter of her college account out of stocks when she's five years from her freshmen year, another quarter when she's five years from her sophomore year, and so on.
Don't, however, be too mechanical about this. If your daughter is five years from college and stocks are deeply underwater, I wouldn't sell a quarter of her stocks. Instead, postpone all selling until shares bounce back. With five years until you need the money, you should get ample opportunity to sell at better prices.
Looking Down
When it comes to emergency money, the conventional wisdom is that you should keep six months of living expenses in conservative investments. But this advice has always struck me as absurd.
Think about it: You are leaving a huge wad of cash languishing in low-returning investments in preparation for events that probably won't occur. Yes, you may need the money tomorrow. But there's a good chance you won't need it for years and years.
As an alternative to the six-month rule, I often suggest that folks keep maybe two months of living expenses in a money-market fund or a short-term bond fund. That should be enough to cover small-scale disasters, like the boiler going into a meltdown or the roof suddenly needing to be replaced.
Meanwhile, I would take the rest of your emergency money and invest for long-term growth, by buying a diverse mix of stocks and riskier bonds. To be sure, your next major financial emergency might coincide with a nasty bear market and it will be a bad time to sell these investments. But you could always borrow temporarily by, say, tapping your home-equity line of credit. You can then repay this money once your stocks and bonds bounce back.
Heading Home
While we don't have a strict deadline with retirement, college and financial emergencies, that isn't the case with home purchases. To make that house down payment, you really do need a sizable chunk of money on a single day.
Because there's no wiggle room, I would be more cautious with your house money than with your retirement, college and emergency money. Hoping to buy a house in the next few years? As you save for your future down payment, I would funnel every dollar into a money-market fund or a short-term bond fund.
投资理财吗？时间来得及
从容不迫一些吧。
在你投出任何资金的时候，都应该仔细想想你需要在什么时候收回这笔钱。而且如果你这么做了，很可能就会得出一个令你吃惊的结论：你的时间往往比你想象的要充裕得多，这样你就不必对自己的投资组合那么谨小慎微了。
要理解其中的原因，请你考虑四大理财目标：积攒养老金，支付子女大学教育费用，应对资金紧急状况和购置住房。
积攒养老金
对于希望到退休时积攒多少养老金，人们心里往往有个期望值。在这个目标的驱动下，人们不仅在60岁之前拼命攒钱，而且还大量购买债券、货币市场基金和大额存单，以便在回家养老时手头有充足的现金。
但是，这些人当然不会在一天内花光全部积蓄。一旦退休，这笔钱可能会花上二三十年。
那么，在你退休时需要攒多少钱呢？我常常建议每位退休者争取每年从投资组合的年初金额中支取5%。比如，如果你的储蓄金在年初时价值40万美元，那么你可以在今后十二个月里总共取出这笔钱的5%，也就是2万美元。
你可以从红利，利息和偶尔出售的投资中获得这个5%。这些钱中的一部份要交税，因此不要指望能照这5%的全部数目去花。
即便你每年仅支取5%，我也要提醒你：投资组合中的现金比例要在5%以上。我的建议是，把25%的资金放在货币市场基金和短期债券基金上，这样你就能留出足够的资金供退休后的五年提取了。
同时，把另外75%的资金投入长期增长的项目，具体方法是坚持把大约25%放在多种优质中期债券、通货膨胀调整国债和高收益率的垃圾债券组合上，其余50%购买篮筹股、小型公司和外国股票的共同基金。
这些风险较大投资带来的增长很可能派得上用场。毕竟在二三十年的退休生涯里，消费者价格可能轻而易举地增加一倍，那么你会希望自己的收入随之增长。的确，具讽刺意味的是，在通货膨胀的威胁下，把所有资金都押在低风险投资上大概是最大的风险了。
子女教育金
就像你不会一下花光养老金一样，你也不会把女儿大学教育金在一天内用完，而是要用上四年。
这让我想起了一个流行的经验法则：当你要在五年内实现一个理财目标时，千万不要投资股票。这个法则不无道理的。在五年左右的时期内，投资股票一般都会赔钱。
实际上，我们只经历过为数不多的几次艰难时期。根据芝加哥的资产管理咨询公司Ibbotson Associates提供的数据，在分别截至2002年12月和2003年12月的五年里，标准普尔500种股票指数都是累计下跌了3%。如果你等待的时间过长，股票无法出手，这些股票就会砸在手里，最后只好像甩卖火灾受损物品一样将其抛出。
在筹集女儿的大学教育金时该如何应用五年法则呢？设想你计划在她读大学的四年里每年拿出教育金的四分之一。
心中有数以后，你可以在距女儿上大学一年级还有五年的时候从股票帐户中转移出这笔教育金的四分之一，在距她上大二还有五年时从股票帐户中再转移四分之一，依此类推。
但是，在操作时不要过于机械。如果时间距离女儿上大学还有五年，而股票又被套牢，要是我就不会抛出相当于四分之一教育金的股票，而是会等待股价反弹。还有五年你才真正需要这笔钱，所以你还有充份的机会以更好的价钱卖出这些股票。
应对紧急情况
说到应对紧急状况的资金，传统的观点认为应该在保守投资中留出相当于六个月生活费的金额。但这条建议总是让我感到荒唐可笑。
想想吧，你要留出很大一笔钱扔在低回报的投资里，为可能根本不会发生的情况作著准备。的确，你明天就可能用到这笔钱，但很可能你在许多年里都用不著它。
我经常建议人们用来替代六个月法则的选择方案是，把大约两个月的生活费放在货币市场或短期债券市场上。这将足以应对小灾小祸，比如热水器坏了，或者屋顶突然需要更换等。
同时，我还要把其余的应急资金用于长期增长的投资，方法是购买多种股票和风险较高的债券。诚然，你在下一次资金紧张状况出现时可能碰巧遭遇熊市，出售这些投资就不是时候了。但你总可以暂时借些钱，比如动用你的房屋净值信用额度。一旦股票和债券咸鱼翻身，你就可以偿还这笔钱了。
购置住房
尽管我们对于退休、大学教育和财务紧急状况的用钱时间没有设定一个严格的期限，但买房可是另外一回事。为了支付首期房款，你真的需要在一天里筹集到相当一笔钱。
由于这一点没有商量的余地，你对待购房资金应比对待养老金、大学教育金和应急资金谨慎得多。你希望在今后几年里购买住房吗？当你积攒首期付款的时候，我要劝你将每一块钱都放在货币市场基金或短期债券基金上。
