Launch of 3G Phone Networks Sparks New Worries in China
Futuristic cellphones using China's new, homegrown wireless technology still aren't ready to be deployed, a problem that could cause the Chinese government to rethink how it rolls out advanced third-generation phone networks.
The government, already worried about the potentially huge cost of building the new mobile networks, could decide to grant licenses to only three companies for so-called 3G phone service, instead of the four or five that had been expected, industry officials and analysts say. That could dent sales for foreign telecom-equipment vendors hoping to sell lots of expensive 3G gear to Chinese phone companies.
The Chinese government also could mandate that phone companies share space on new networks to save money, or use the same network to run more than one type of 3G technology, including the homegrown standard, these people say. Third-generation phones boast high-speed Internet connections, allowing users to download bulky applications like music videos, live television and complicated games.
Chinese officials say no final decisions on the issues have been made. Speculation about the 3G licenses and deployment comes as Chinese officials prepare today to announce the results of extensive field trials of three third-generation technical standards. Two of the technologies were developed by Western companies, while the third, called TD-SCDMA, is a domestic standard being promoted by the Chinese government.
Industry executives and analysts believe that China would like at least some of the country's phone companies to use the domestic standard, as that would drum up more business for local telecom-equipment vendors and reduce the country's dependence on foreign vendors.
Phones Are Weak Link
An official with the China Academy of Telecommunication Research in Beijing, which was in charge of conducting the recent field trials, said equipment running all three technical standards performed well in the tests. But the performance of the actual phones using the new Chinese standard "was relatively poor," the official said. The academy is part of China's Ministry of Information Industry, which is holding a three-day "global summit" on 3G in Beijing this week.
Another official with the information ministry, Vice Minister Lou Qinjian, was quoted in the Chinese press last week lamenting that there's still a small number of 3G phones available. According to the reporters, Mr. Lou added that the slow pace at which 3G terminals are getting developed is a "major reason affecting issuance of 3G licenses." Mr. Lou encouraged domestic Chinese phone-makers to make more third-generation handsets.
Only a few Chinese companies now make phones that work on the new, homegrown standard, while giant phone makers like Motorola Inc., NEC Corp. and LG Electronics Inc. have deployed a variety of models running the Western standards in other countries. Third-generation phone networks are running in parts of Europe and Asia, though many got off to slow starts and experienced initial technical glitches. China has been hesitant to move forward with the technology partly because of those early problems.
The small number of workable TD-SCDMA phones means China could wind up issuing its 3G licenses without requiring that one company develop a pure TD-SCDMA network, as many in the industry had anticipated. Instead, all the companies might be allowed to build networks using the foreign standards and simply agree to devote part of them to the Chinese standard at some point when the technology matures, says one phone-industry expert involved in the Beijing 3G summit.
The industry is still "quite optimistic" the Chinese government will issue the licenses next year, says Richard Lee, the head of communications for China's Huawei Technologies Co. Huawei, China's largest telecom-equipment maker, is building some TD-SCDMA equipment in a venture with Germany's Siemens AG. Mr. Lee says he hasn't heard anything about the recent field-test performance of the TD-SCDMA phones made by other Chinese vendors.
Leaving Out Chinese Carrier
However, some telecom-industry executives say China could cut back on the total number of 3G licenses it will issue. "In my opinion, four or five is too much," says a Chinese official in the telecommunications sector. But the official says there is still "no final decision" on the issue.
If the government issues just three licenses, that would mean one of China's four large phone companies wouldn't get one, and could miss out on potentially lucrative 3G business. The four major Chinese companies are mobile carriers China Mobile Communications Corp. and China United Communications Corp., plus fixed-line carriers China Telecommunications Corp. and China Network Communications Group Corp.
One option would be to force two of the companies to share a network. Or, the government could even break up one of the companies, and parcel out its existing mobile networks to the other carriers. Then the three remaining carriers could get 3G licenses. "That's a choice," said the Chinese telecommunications official. But "it's only one of the choices."
中国对推出3G网络依然顾虑重重
使用中国自行研发的新型无线技术的手机尚不完备，这可能会让中国政府重新考虑如何铺开第三代手机(3G)网络的问题。
业内官员和分析师们表示，政府对新网络的巨大投资已经感到忧虑，可能会决定只派发三张3G牌照，而不是原来预计的四到五张。外国电讯设备生产商的销售额会因此受损，因为他们一直希望能向中国电讯公司出售大量他们研制的昂贵的3G设备。
他们还说，政府可能还会强制命令电话公司分享网络空间，这样可以节省费用；或者让他们在同一个网络上使用包括中国自己开发的标准在内的多种3G技术标准。
第三代移动电话能够高速接入互联网，用户可以下载大量应用程序，例如音乐录影、实况电视和复杂的电子游戏等。
政府官员表示此事尚无定论。周一将发布三种第三代移动通讯技术标准大规模实地测试的结果，日期越是临近，对中国3G牌照和标准采用的猜测就越是热烈。西方公司已经开发出两种3G标准，第三套是中国自行开发的TD-SCDMA，也是政府大力支持推广的标准。
业内公司的高级管理人士和分析师都相信，中国政府至少会让部分国内移动电话公司采用国内技术标准，因为这会增加国内电讯设备生产商的收入，同时降低对外国设备生产商的依赖。
设在北京的电信研究院(Academy of Telecommunication Research)负责主持这次实地测试。该研究院某官员称，几次测试中，运行全部三种标准的设备都运转良好。但是采用国内标准的电话的通话质量“相对较差”。电信研究院隶属中国信息产业部(Ministry of Information Industry)，后者定于本周在北京召开为期三天的“3G全球峰会”。
中国报章上周援引了信息产业部副部长娄勤俭的话，称目前可以上市的3G电话还是太少。据记者说，娄勤俭当时还表示3G电话的开发速度落后，是影响3G牌照发放的主要原因。他鼓励国内3G电话生产商生产出更多的3G手机。
只有少数几家中国公司生产采用国内新标准的手机，而摩托罗拉(Motorola Inc.)、日本电气(NEC Corp.)和LG电子(LG Electronics Inc.)等大型企业都已经在其他国家推出了大量采用国外技术标准的3G手机。欧洲和亚洲部分地区的3G网络已经投入使用，不过最初也是发展缓慢，遇到了一些技术故障。中国在这个问题上犹豫再三，部分原因就是这些早期难题。
目前可以上市使用的TD-SCDMA标准的手机很少，这可能意味著，政府在派发3G牌照时不会像业内人士普遍预计的那样，要求某家公司单独开发TD-SCDMA网络。在北京参加3G峰会的一位业内专家称，政府可能会允许所有公司采用外国标准铺设网络，只要他们同意在国内技术标准成熟的时候将部分网络调整到国内标准即可。
中国的华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies Co.)的通讯部门主管Richard Lee说，全行业对中国政府明年派发3G牌照的前景仍然非常乐观。华为是中国最大的电讯设备生产商，已经与德国的西门子公司(Siemens AG)联手生产了一些符合TD-SCDMA标准的设备。他还说，尚未听说这次实地测试中其他国内公司的TD-SCDMA手机的消息。
不过，一些电讯行业的高级管理人士认为，中国政府会削减3G牌照的总数。“在我看来，四到五张牌照太多了，”电讯行业某位中国官员称。但他接著说，此事“尚无定论”。
如果政府只派发3张牌照，那么就意味著国内四大电话公司中会有一家落选，看著利润丰厚的3G业务而徒唤奈何。这四家公司分别是：中国移动(China Mobile Communications Corp.)和中国联通(China United Communications Corp.)两家移动通信公司，以及中国电信(China Telecommunications Corp.)和中国网通(China Network Communications Group Corp.)两家固定电话公司。
要解决这个问题，办法之一就是迫使两家公司使用同一个网络，政府甚至可以分拆某家公司，把它现有的移动网络划给另一家公司，这样就只有三家公司分享这三张牌照了。“这也是个办法，”电信部门一位官员表示，“但也只是选择之一。”
