Weather upsets on the way, climate expert warns CEOs
David Griggs, director of the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, will tell a private meeting of the Asian Business Council in Singapore that the region will become hotter, more prone to summer droughts in inland areas and at greater risk from typhoons.
He will say that global warming, much of it induced by Asia's industrialisation and carbon dioxide emissions, is likely to have a big impact on agriculture, industry and insurance as well as on the lives of the poor. If the sea level rises one metre slightly above the top end of predictions for the year 2100 Bangladesh would lose about 17 per cent of its land.
This is the first time an Asian business group such as the ABC has devoted so much attention to global warming. The agenda reflects growing awareness among business leaders that the environment is not a purely western concern.
The ABC includes global or regional chief executives of some of the biggest Japanese, Chinese, Indian, US and European companies operating in Asia, among them Boeing, Reliance Industries, China Netcom and Standard Chartered.
“Nobody's really focused on Asia as an area before,” Mr Griggs said yesterday, stressing that his conclusions were tentative and the data incomplete.
“It's going to affect all businesses, and people need to start thinking about what they are going to do about it.
“If you're a major foodproducer or you rely on water, virtually every industry will be affected in some way. What we're still trying to understand is exactly how . . . the effects of climate change probably won't be felt as a change in average temperature. It'll be felt by people and business in the extreme events.”
Mr Griggs said there had been speculation that rice production could collapse above a certain heat threshold, while other crops could be hit by drought.
“Some of the work is still at the very early stages, but if there is even a 20 per cent reduction in rain-fed wheat, that could have huge implications for a population that is growing very rapidly.”
Some Asian chief executives have embraced environmental concerns a few will argue in Singaporethat profits can be enhanced by saving energy, recycling waste and cutting pollution.
“Asians are beginning to wake up and see that thisis a real issue,” said Mr Griggs.
■ Russia yesterday handed over its accession papers to the Kyoto Protocol, making it possible for the climate treaty to enter into force on February 16, reports Mark Turner in Nairobi.
“This is a historic step forward in the world's efforts to combat a truly global threat,” said Kofi Annan, UN secretary-general.
气象专家：亚洲气候可能突变
亚洲到本世纪末将在降雨方式、热浪和热带风暴的严重性等方面面临潜在的巨大变化。这是一位研究气候变迁的专家今天将告诉亚洲首席执行官们的。
英国气象局“哈德利气候预报研究中心”(Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research)主任戴维?格瑞格斯(David Griggs)将在亚洲商业理事会(Asian Business Council，ABC)于新加坡举行的不公开会议上发言，称亚洲地区将变得更加炎热，内陆区域更易发生夏季干旱，而台风带来的风险将会更大。
格瑞格斯将表示，全球变暖在很大程度上是由亚洲的工业化和二氧化碳排放引起的，此等现象可能对农业、工业、保险，乃至穷人的生活产生重大影响。如果海平面升高一米，即略高于2100年海平面高度预测的最高值，那么孟加拉国将失去约17%的领土。
这是亚洲商业理事会（ABC）之类的亚洲商业团体第一次如此关注全球变暖问题。这一议程反映了企业领导人越来越强的认知，即环境问题不只是西方的问题。
亚洲商业理事会成员包括日本、中国、印度、美国及欧洲一些最大公司的全球或地区性首席执行官，这些公司都在亚洲开展业务，其中包括波音(Boeing)、印度信心工业公司（Reliance Industries）、中国网通(China Netcom)和渣打银行(Standard Chartered)。
“以前没有人真正将亚洲作为一个地区来关注，”格瑞格斯先生昨天表示，他同时强调，他的结论是临时性的，数据还不完整。
“这会影响所有企业，人们需要开始思索，他们将怎么办。”
“比如你是一家大型食品生产商，或者你需要水，几乎每个行业都将在某种程度上受到影响。我们仍在试图理解的是究竟会如何影响……气候变化的效应，或许不在于人们感觉到平均温度的变化。气候变化将在极端事件中被人们和企业感知。”
格瑞格斯先生表示，有推测认为，在气温上升超过某个限度后，稻米生产将崩溃，而其它农作物也可能受到干旱的打击。
