China to Link Tariffs On Power, Coal Price
HONG KONG -- In a bid to improve margins for struggling Chinese power plants without raising inflation rates, Beijing has prepared a set of market-oriented measures to formally link electricity tariffs to coal prices.
Government and industry officials familiar with the planning say the new rules, which might be in place by the end of year, could allow electricity producers to raise prices in response to soaring demand for power and a steady increase in their biggest cost -- the price of coal. One confidential government document outlines a mechanism by which China's independent power producers would be able to pass on part of their fuel costs, with industries initially absorbing much of the burden. But officials involved in the planning said a final decision hasn't been reached.
It is unclear at this stage what impact such a move might have on inflation -- which could prove problematic. Ensuring that Chinese power producers aren't squeezed too badly while controlling inflation "may be a difficult balancing act for the government," says Manop Sangiambut, a Shanghai-based research analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.
Some economists say that any rise in producer prices would ultimately be passed on to Chinese consumers. "Everything will go up, from shop prices to industrial prices," said Dong Tao, Credit Suisse First Boston's Hong Kong-based chief regional economist. "It's a classic case of cost-push inflation."
However, others think the impact of formally linking power tariffs to coal prices would be mild because electricity counts for a small portion of Chinese individuals' consumption.
China's creaking power industry has struggled to meet the country's vast appetite for energy. Massive industrial demand for making steel, cars and other goods has overwhelmed the nation's inefficient and debt-laden independent power producers, which are partly state-owned. There have been widespread power shortages and even blackouts. An outmoded grid means even those energy producers with power to spare can't get it to customers needing it.
And the government, fearful of inflation, has kept caps on electricity tariffs. Steeply rising coal prices -- which account for about 70% of power plants' operating costs -- and high railway and shipping costs have further squeezed energy producers, which buy a big proportion of their coal on long-term contracts but also make spot purchases as needed.
China's National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planning body, has raised electricity tariffs twice this year to compensate for the higher expenses hitting power producers. But analysts say that hasn't plugged the gap between their revenues and costs. The commission also has capped the price at which coal producers can sell to power producers, but the result is that the otherwise-deregulated coal companies try to export their output or find other customers to avoid selling to the power industry.
"The current policy is rooted in official concern about inflation," says Hu Zhaoguang, chief economist at the State Power Economic Research Center, a think tank connected with China's largest power-grid company, State Grid Corp. "But the policy has led to all these other problems."
Now the National Development and Reform Commission is studying a new coal- and electricity-price mechanism, according to one of its officials as well as analysts and industry executives. Officials at the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, and the China Electricity Council -- a union of power generators -- declined to comment.
Under one scenario being considered, government officials would reassess coal costs twice a year. That process, say some analysts, might be under way informally, as China raised electricity tariffs in January and June. If the price of coal has risen or fallen by 5%, electricity producers will be allowed to pass on 70% of those costs -- or savings -- to grid operators, which are owned by local provincial governments.
The industrial sector, which accounts for almost 75% of China's electricity consumption, will likely shoulder most of the initial economic burden if the new pricing mechanism is implemented and coal prices continue to rise. One planning document calls for exempting agricultural and fertilizer industries from price increases, according to a person who saw it.
Adjusting electricity prices is a delicate matter, particularly because economic officials are concerned about rising Chinese consumer-price inflation, now at 5% annually. Some economists say allowing power prices to rise could stoke inflationary pressures, as producers eventually pass on price increases to consumers. Others contend that food prices -- the largest source of inflationary pressure -- have peaked and are declining. Fuel and energy comprise the second-largest component of China's consumer-price index, at 20%, according to Credit Suisse First Boston.
Mr. Manop, the CLSA analyst, says, "On one hand, you have the power shortages, and you want to make sure these [independent power producers] are not squeezed too severely, to make sure they keep producing power. On the other hand, you have the inflation problem that the government has to deal with."
Any additional transparency in price setting -- however small -- might improve the performance of China's listed power-sector stocks such as Huaneng Power International Inc., Huadian Power International, China Resources Power Holdings Co. and Datang International Power Generation Co. Huaneng, China's biggest electricity producer, saw its unit fuel costs surge 32% in the first three quarters, compared with a 2.3% rise a year earlier.
"By having such a cost of coal pass through system, you are partially relieving the [IPP] stocks of an uncertainty," says Joseph Jacobelli, Merrill Lynch's Hong Kong-based head of Asia Pacific utilities research. "From that perspective, that is positive for the fundamentals of the company, and also positive for the market sentiment for the company."
中国将把电价与煤炭价格挂钩
为了改善效益不佳的中国发电厂的利润率，同时又不推高通货膨胀率，中国政府已经准备了一套市场化的措施，正式将电价与煤炭价格挂钩。
了解此计划的政府官员及业内人士称，新规定可能于年底执行，将允许发电厂提高电价，以应对电力需求的增长及煤炭价格的不断上涨。煤炭是发电厂最大的一项成本，约占其运营成本的70%左右。政府一份机密文件简单介绍了这一体制，中国的独立发电厂可借此转移部分燃料成本。但参与此规划的一位官员称，最终决定尚未做出。
目前尚不清楚此举会对通货膨胀率产生何种影响。里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)驻上海的研究分析师马诺普?沙严布(Manop Sangiambut)说，政府可能难以在改善中国发电厂的处境和控制通货膨胀之间达到平衡。
部分经济学家认为，生产成本的上涨最终将转嫁给中国的消费者。瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)的亚洲区首席经济分析师陶冬说，所有产品的价格都将上涨，从商店的商品到工业价格。这是典型的成本推动的通货膨胀。
但其他人认为，正式将电价与煤炭价格挂钩不会产生很大影响，这主要是由于电力只占中国个人消费的很小一部分。
中国步履维艰的电力工业一直在努力满足国内巨大的能源需求。生产钢铁、轿车和其他商品的用电需求居高不下，已经超过了中国效率低下、负债累累的独立发电厂的供电能力。中国各地普遍存在电力短缺，甚至拉闸限电的情况。落后的电网意味著即使这些发电厂有多余的电力也无法将其输送到急需的客户那里。
政府由于担心通货膨胀而一直维持目前的电价。煤炭价格的大幅上涨及铁路和船运成本的增加使发电厂的处境更为艰难。这些发电厂主要通过长期合约购买煤炭，但也根据需要购买部分现货。
中国国家发展和改革委员会(State Development and Reform Commission, 简称：国家发改委)今年已两次上调了电价，以补偿发电厂开支的增加。但分析师称，这不足以弥补收入与成本之间的缺口。国家发改委还制定了煤炭生产商将煤炭出售给发电厂的最高限价，但后果是这些已经习惯了不受约束的煤炭公司纷纷寻求将其产品出口，或是寻找其他客户，而不愿将煤炭销售给电力行业。
国电动力经济研究中心(State Power Economic Research Center)的总经济师胡兆光说，目前的政策主要源自政府对通货膨胀的担忧。但这个政策却引发了其他许多问题。该中心是同中国最大的国家电网公司(State Grid Corporation of China)有关的一家研究机构。
据国家发改委的一位官员及分析师和业内管理人士称，目前国家发改委正在研究新的煤炭及电力价格体制。国家电力监管委员会(State Electricity Regulatory Commission)和发电商行业组织中国电力企业联合会(China Electricity Council)的人员均对此不予置评。
目前正在考虑的一个方案是政府每年对煤炭成本进行两次评估。部分分析师称，这一过程可能在中国1月和6月上调电价时以非正式的方式进行过。如果煤炭价格涨跌超过5%，发电厂可以将增加或所节约成本的70%转移给电网运营商。这些电网运营商是为省一级政府所拥有的。
如果新的价格体制得以实行，而煤炭价格继续上涨，占中国电力消费量75%左右的工业领域将可能承受大多数新增的经济负担。据看到一份规划文件的人士称，这份文件要求不提高农业和化肥业的用电价格。
调整电价是一个相当微妙的事情，经济部门的官员尤其担心目前为5%的通货膨胀率会继续上涨。部分经济学家称，允许上调电价可能会带来通货膨胀压力，因为生产商最终会将价格的上涨转嫁给消费者。而部分人则认为，食品价格已经达到高点，目前正在回落。食品价格是造成通货膨胀压力的最主要原因。据瑞士信贷第一波士顿称，燃料和能源价格占中国消费者价格指数的第二位，约为20%。
里昂证券亚太市场的沙严布说，一方面，电力短缺是不争的事实，应保证这些独立发电厂不至于太艰难，使他们能够继续发电；另一方面，政府还要面对通货膨胀问题。
定价方面的透明度哪怕仅是稍有增加也会改善华能国际电力股份有限公司(Huaneng Power International Inc., 0902.HK, 简称：华能国际)、华电国际电力股份有限公司(Huadian Power International Corp. Ltd., 1071.HK, 简称：华电国际电力股份)、华润电力控股有限公司(China Resources Power Holdings Co. Ltd., 0836.HK, 简称：华润电力)和大唐国际发电股份有限公司(Datang International Power Generation Co. Ltd., 0991.HK, 简称：大唐发电)等中国上市电力类股的表现。中国最大的发电企业华能国际称其单位燃料成本在今年前三个季度上涨了32%，而上年同期的涨幅仅为2.3%。
美林(Merrill Lynch)驻香港的亚太区公用事业研究部负责人约瑟夫?雅格贝利(Joseph Jacobelli)说，将煤炭价格纳入到定价系统内会部分缓解独立发电厂类股面临的不确定性。从这个角度讲，这有利于电力公司的基本面，也有利于提高市场对这些公司的信心。
