Building Europe's Relations With A Rising China
The 7th European Union/China Summit will take place in The Hague today. As incoming EU Trade Commissioner I have many immediate priorities, above all to push forward the global trade talks in the Doha Development Agenda. But it is already clear to me that there will be no more important strategic issue for us to manage over the next five years than the continuing rise of China's economic power. It has huge implications for Europe and the rest of the world.
The world has never before seen growth on this scale. China is now Europe's second largest trading partner after the U.S. In just the last 15 years its exports have doubled, then doubled again, and then doubled once more. Last year they overtook Japan's.
China is the world's largest burner of coal and largest consumer of steel, copper and cement. Chinese demand for oil has been a major factor in the rise of world oil prices. By 2030 China may emit as much carbon dioxide as the U.S., and have more cars than the rest of the world.
These phenomena will have far reaching economic, political and social impact for all of us. They imply political choices for China and for the rest of the world.
We would be foolish to try to resist them or to go into denial. The new China is a fact. Our aim should be to engage and influence, not to see China as a strategic threat. Seeing China as a threat is more likely at some point to make it one.
Our aim should be integrating China into the international system more fully. China's accession to the World Trade Organization was an important step forward. And it worked. The WTO system has not broken as some predicted, and membership has helped advance necessary economic reform in China.
But the success of the WTO now depends also on leadership from China -- by fully implementing its WTO commitments and making proposals in the Doha Round which reflect an overarching support for the global trading system. And China's new responsibilities go much further. For example, China can contribute more to collective international activity in peacekeeping and conflict prevention.
We need to think through carefully and systematically these implications of China's growing power. It will change politics in the Asian region and affect China's relationship with Japan.
The China/U.S. relationship will be a central factor in international relations in this new century. A key question for all of us is whether they will be able to manage tensions as they arise. There is much potential for miscalculation. The implications of the economic links between the two also need to be better understood.
The implications of China's growth for other developing countries are particularly stark. We are already seeing this as the removal of textile quotas comes into effect. European textile manufacturers are feeling the pressure. But the implications for people in countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan are far more dramatic.
Europe must pursue policies to help these countries to adapt to inevitable change. But China, too, like other advanced developing countries, will need to take much more responsibility for assisting this adjustment. China should play a stronger role in supporting an international system in which it has a growing stake. It is no good eliminating poverty in China if the consequence is to transfer it elsewhere.
And what does this mean for Europe? We need a collective and united response. Europe will be infinitely more persuasive in relations with China if we establish a clear collective strategy than if individual nations pursue narrowly defined national interests. I believe our need to engage with China will be a driver for European integration in the future. It is an example of why those who believe that individual European countries will be able to protect their interests outside the Union are misguided.
The EU needs to engage with China on a wide economic agenda, encouraging transparency and good economic governance, promoting effective regulation, encouraging two-way investment. There are huge prizes to be won in the Chinese economy. In bilateral trade, the time has come to make further progress on investment liberalization, opening our government procurement markets to each other, and better enforcement of intellectual-property rights.
All this needs a structure. The present framework for EU/China relations is 20 years old and no longer adequate. We should consider whether we need to overhaul this framework to bring together political, economic, environmental, social and other aspects of policy into a single overarching strategic approach.
This is a vast agenda. I hope to help the EU rise to the challenge.
曼德尔森：加强与中国的关系
欧盟与中国第七次领导人会晤今日将在海牙举行。作为新任欧盟贸易专员，我面临许多当务之急，最重要的是推动多哈全球贸易谈判。但对我来说，没有什么比今后五年中国经济力量的继续崛起更为重要的战略性问题了。这对欧洲和世界其他地区都具有重大意义。
世界上以前从未出现过如此规模的增长。中国现在是仅次于美国的欧洲第二大贸易伙伴。在过去仅仅15年时间里，中国对欧盟出口额就增长了翻了好几番。去年中国对欧盟出口额已超过日本。
中国是全球最大的煤炭消费国，也是最大的钢铁、铜和水泥的消费国。中国的石油需求已成为推动全球油价上涨的主要原因。到2030年，中国的二氧化碳排放量有可能赶上美国，轿车数量可能会超过世界任何一个国家。
这将给我们所有人带来深远的经济、政治和社会影响。这也要求中国和世界其他地区作出政治上的选择。
想要回避或否定这一切无疑是愚蠢的行为。中国的崛起是一个既成事实。我们的目标应是参与并施加影响，而不是将中国视为战略威胁。将中国视为威胁在某种程度上反而可能会使这一看法变成现实。
我们的目标应是使中国更加融入国际体系。中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)就是一个重要的进步，并且发挥了作用。WTO体系并未像某些人预计的那样受到破坏，其成员国帮助中国加快了必要的经济改革。
但WTO的成功现在也取决于中国的领导人，需要中国充分履行对WTO的承诺及实施在多哈回合谈判中提出的推全球贸易体系起重要支撑作用的提议。中国也需要承担更多新的责任。比如，中国可以在国际维和及防止冲突方面发挥更大作用。
我们需要更认真系统地思考中国崛起的意义。这将改变亚洲地区的政治格局，并影响中国和日本之间的关系。
中美关系是新世纪国际关系中的核心因素。对我们而言，关键问题在于双方能否控制可能出现的紧张关系。误判的可能性非常大。双方之间经济联系的意义也需要更好地加以理解。
中国的增长对其他发展中国家也具有特殊含义。随著纺织品配额即将取消，我们已经看到了这点。欧洲的纺织品制造商已经感到了压力。但这对孟加拉国和巴基斯坦等国的人们具有更大的影响。
欧洲必须制定政策帮助这些国家适应不可避免的变化。但中国同其他先进的发展中国家一样需要承担更多的责任，帮助实现这种调整。随著中国在国际体系中的地位日益提升，中国应该在支持这一体系上发挥更大的作用。如果中国通过将贫穷转移到其他国家来解决自身的贫困问题，那是不恰当的。
这对欧洲又意味著什么呢？我们需要作出共同的、一致的反应。如果我们建立了明确的共同战略，而不是各个国家都追求狭隘的国家利益，那就会在与中国的关系中拥有更大的说服力。我相信我们与中国的融合将在今后推动欧洲的一体化。
欧盟需要在广泛的经济领域与中国合作，鼓励透明度和良好的经济治理，促进有效的监管，鼓励双向投资，这样可从中国经济中获得巨大的回报。就双边贸易而言，进一步实行投资自由化、彼此开放政府采购市场及更好地保护知识产权的时机已经成熟。
所有这些都需要建立一种与之相适应的结构。目前的欧盟与中国关系框架已有20年之久，已经不再适应新的形势。我们应考虑是否应修改这一框架，将政治、经济、环境、社会和其他方面的政策结合起来，形成一个更加突出的战略结构。
这是一个浩大的工程。我希望能帮助欧盟应对这一挑战
