Huge Power Investment Raises Worry for China
Tens of billions of dollars of unapproved investments in new Chinese power plants are prompting a crackdown by the central government and raising concerns that state-owned banks could be saddled with a fresh wave of bad debt.
The investments, which have occurred against a backdrop of continuing electricity shortages in China, are so large that government regulators warn they would lead to a serious glut of capacity in a few years that would translate into losses for the plants and the banks that back them. Unapproved power plants currently under construction represent 120 gigawatts of generating capacity -- twice as much as new plants that have been approved by the government, according to the official Xinhua news agency. Experts estimate the unapproved plants -- many of them owned by state-controlled companies -- will require about $75 billion to be completed, much of it from state-owned banks.
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Local governments, which make money selling land to new power plants and which are desperate for electricity to draw commerce and investment, often skirt central-government requirements for such projects. Beijing regulators, in recent speeches and a circular issued to local officials, have signaled they have begun pinpointing plants whose construction will be suspended, according to state media and two people who heard the speeches.
The investments highlight China's inability to shake boom-and-bust cycles in its centrally planned power sector, and underscore the risks for its banking industry. The scale of the unauthorized investments appears especially large given that they were made amid an official campaign this year to halt lending and investment to all sorts of unauthorized construction projects. The investments appear to be working against the slowdown in money supply, bank loans, and overall economic growth that China's leadership has been trying to achieve all year. Many economists say the economy began reaccelerating a few months ago.
Overinvestment in power plants might seem a counterintuitive problem, given China's electricity-supply problems. Factories and residences in most provinces have been dogged by shortages. In industrial parts of the country, including Shanghai and neighboring Zhejiang province, officials expect shortages to last well into 2006. Newspapers in Shanghai announced yesterday that more than 8,000 companies in the city will close for two days each week this winter and operate on weekends instead, to help relieve weekday pressure on the grid.
But power plants generally take a few years to plan and construct, which means a glut can sneak up on regulators, as it did a decade ago. This time around, Beijing warned against overinvestment at an earlier stage of the cycle, but the warnings have done little to slow the flood of money into new projects.
In February, Xu Dingming, chief regulator of the power industry at the National Development and Reform Commission , delivered a speech widely reported by state media and entitled "Be on Guard Against Overinvestment in the Power Sector." The following month, the government launched a campaign to restrict lending and overinvestment in big industrial projects such as steel mills and cement plants. But banks appear to have continued extending loans for power plants.
Whereas officials estimated at the beginning of this year that about 20% of power plants under construction weren't officially approved by the central government, they announced that by last month 66% are unauthorized.
Experts say loans from state banks have accounted for many of the projects. "Power-generation projects are allowed to raise 80% of their total investment from bank loans according to the current rules," says Han Xiaoping of energy-consulting company Falcon Power Ltd. "And banks are willing to lend them the money." He estimates that the unauthorized plants under construction would cost 600 billion yuan, or about $72.5 billion.
"Some of the unapproved projects will be suspended, which will weigh on the banking system," says Mr. Han, who hosted a recent conference with regulators.
电力投资过热 中国急睬刹车
中国正掀起一股电厂兴建热潮，未经批准的违规建设资金有数百亿美元之巨。由于担心国有银行会出现大量新的坏帐，中国政府不得不出面对电力投资进行整顿。
电力投资过热发生在中国目前电力供应持续短缺的大背景之下。由于大批电力项目纷纷上马，政府监管部门担心数年之后就会导致出现供给远大于需求的现象，进而造成这些电厂亏损，并导致为它们提供资金支持的银行出现坏帐。据官方媒体新华社披露，未经批准就已上马的发电厂总装机容量达到1,200亿瓦，是政府许可在建电的两倍。专家估计，这些违规兴建的发电厂需要750亿美元的投资，大部分都来自国有银行。
不仅向电厂投资方出售地皮可以给地方政府带来收入，兴建电厂能够扩大电力供应满足地方政府急于招商引资的急切心理，所以一些地方政府对中央政府停止违规建设发电厂的指示实际上是阳奉阴违。据国有媒体以及两位听过讲话的人士透露，政府监管部门在近期的讲话以及下发给地方官员的通知中表示他们正在清查哪些电厂必须停工。
投资过热凸现出中国集中计划体制下的电力行业仍然摆脱不了从过度发展到泡沫破灭的厄运，以及中国银行业面临的巨大风险。中国政府今年以来一直在阻止向各种违规项目放贷和投资，违规上马的电厂项目投资之巨可谓触目惊心。这些违规投资似乎和中国领导人治理经济过热、放缓货币供应及银行贷款的目标背道而驰。许多经济学家认为几个月前中国经济增长步伐重新加快。
从电力供应短缺的现状来看，中国政府认定电力建设存在投资过热的现象显得有些不合逻辑。多数省份的工厂和居民都饱受缺电之苦。政府官员们认为上海及浙江省等制造业发达省市的缺电现象很有可能持续至2006年。上海的报纸昨天就报导说，为了缓解电力供应紧张的局面，上海今冬将有超过8,000家企业每周将停产两天，改在周末生产。
从规划到竣工，建造电厂往往要花上数年左右的时间。这意味著供过于求的局面一时半刻还显现不出来，正如10年前一样。尽管这次中国政府在泡沫形成的早期阶段就发出了警告，但这些警告到了地方政府那里似乎都成了耳边风，大批资金仍然源源不断投向新电厂的建设之中。
国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission, NDRC, 简称：发改委)能源局局长徐锭明今年2月就电力投资过热发表的讲话被广为报导。3月，中国政府便开始限制向钢铁厂、水泥厂等大型工业建设项目发放贷款，整顿这些领域的过热投资。但银行业为电力建设提供的贷款似乎有增无减。
尽管政府官员在今年年初时预计约20%新开工的电厂都是属于未经中央政府批准的违规项目，但11月这个比例陡然增至66%。
专家表示，许多项目的建设投资都来自国有银行的贷款。中国能源网首席执行长韩晓平表示，根据现行规定，银行最高可向发电厂项目发放相当于投资总额80%的贷款；而且，银行也愿意向它们放贷。他本人预计已上马的违规电厂的建设成本总额为人民币6,000亿元，约合725亿美元。
韩晓平预计，将有一些违规项目被勒令停工，会给银行业带来一定冲击。
