“Structural change occurs in the global energy market”
ChevronTexaco, the second largest US energy group by revenues, yesterday raised its planning price for oil to from $15-$25 a barrel to $20-$30, citing a “structural” change in the global energy market.
The oil giant is the first of the “super-majors” to talk of such a shift in the market.
However, there is a widespread recognition within the industry that the oil price used by companies for internal decision-making has moved from its long-run average of $20 a barrel.
Dave O'Reilly, Chevron-Texaco's chairman and chief executive officer, told analysts the company had concluded “that the world had changed”, leading it to raise its price assumption, which it has used for a decade.
“We had to take a view on whether there has been a lasting structural change in mid-cycle oil prices,” Mr O'Reilly told investors in New York. “We think [market] conditions have changed enough that we've moved up the oil price band for base-case assumptions.”
Analysts credit the US group with an excellent exploration record, including two big discoveries last week in the North Sea and Venezuela. But it warned that yesterday's announcement would not necessarily trigger a flurry of new development activity as it uses different prices for different types of projects.
Royal Dutch/Shell was the first of the super-majors to break ranks on the planning price, because of extreme presure to rebuild its reserves.
In September the Anglo-Dutch group said it would continue to use a $20 benchmark to screen projects, but would assume a price of “$25 and above” when deciding which investments would it would to pursue.
The majors remain focused on maintaining the capital discipline instilled since the bottom of the last price cycle.
John S Herold, the oil consultant, estimated the industry will spend more on share buybacks and dividends this year than on exploration and production.
BP has stuck to $20 a barrel for its planning, and said this helped protect it from governments such as Russia and Argentina increasing taxes to take advantage of oil price rises.
Lord Browne, chairman of BP, has said he expects oil prices of at least $30 for the next three to four years. The UK group said anything above $20 a barrel will be returned to shareholders.
Halliburton, the US oil services and logistics group, said recently it had seen evidence of large listed oil companies lifting their planning price assumptions to $25 a barrel when looking at shorter term projects.
Smaller companies have been more aggressive in raising both their planning prices and capital expenditure levels.
“Looking at the last five years, I think [$20 a barrel] is a thing of the past,” Pieter Cox, chief executive of Sasol, the South African energy and chemicals group, told the Financial Times. “$25 is closer to the mark, but that may be conservative.”
Peter Robertson, Chevron-Texaco vice-chairman, said it would focus on organic growth to target annual production growth of 3 per cent from 2008.
Analysts estimated that the company has $15bn in “financial firepower”, and its share price has been depressed by speculation over acquisition activity notably of potential interest in securing access to assets from Yukos, the Russian oil group whose main operating unit is being auctioned on Friday.
“全球能源市场发生结构变化”
雪佛龙德士古(ChevronTexaco)昨天将其石油计划价格从每桶15至25美元提高到20至30美元，公司的理由是全球能源市场已发生“结构”变化。按营收计算，雪佛龙德士古是美国第二大能源集团。
该石油巨头是第一家谈论市场这种变化的“超大型公司”。
但业内广泛认为，公司用于内部决策的油价已背离其每桶20美元的长期均价。
雪佛龙德士古董事长兼首席执行官戴夫?奥莱利(Dave O’Reilly)告诉分析师，公司已得出结论，认为“世界已发生了变化”，导致公司提高用了10年的假定价格。
“周期中期油价是否一直发生着持久的结构变化，对此我们必须有个定论，”奥莱利先生在纽约对投资人说，“我们认为（市场）环境已改变了很多，我们因此上调了用于基本情况假设的油价区间。”
分析师把优异的勘探纪录归功于这家美国集团，包括上周在北海和委内瑞拉的两个重大发现。但公司警告说，昨天的声明不一定会引发新一波的开发活动，因为公司对不同种类的项目采用不同的价格。
由于面临重建石油储备的过分压力，皇家荷兰/壳牌(Royal Dutch/Shell)成为了石油计划价格方面第一个溃不成军的超大型石油公司。
这家英荷集团今年9月表示，将继续使用每桶20美元的基准价格来甄别开采项目，但在决定公司将做出哪些投资项目时，会采用“25美元及以上”的价格。
各大石油公司仍然将重点放在维持资本纪律上。自上次价格周期触底以来，这些纪律就在公司得到了灌输。
石油咨询顾问约翰?S?希罗德(John S Herold)估计，该行业今年将把更多资金用于股票回购和派息，而不是勘探和生产。
英国石油(BP)一直将计划价格定在20美元。公司表示，这样做已帮助保护了公司，避免了俄罗斯和阿根廷等国政府利用石油价格上涨而增加税收。
在提高石油计划价格和资本支出水平两方面时，规模较小企业一直动作更大。
分析师估计，公司拥有150亿美元的“财政火力”，股价已被市场上有关公司收购活动的传言所打压，特别是公司可能有兴趣获得俄罗斯石油集团尤科斯(Yukos)的资产。尤科斯的主要经营子公司周五将被拍卖。
