Oil-Producing Nations Buy Up U.S. Securities
At a time of growing concern that Asian central banks and other overseas investors are losing their appetite for U.S. securities, rising demand, particularly for bonds, is coming from an unexpected source: oil-producing nations.
The 16 major oil-exporting countries -- including Middle Eastern nations, Russia, Mexico and Venezuela -- are net buyers of $50 billion in U.S. bonds and stocks this year through September, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Treasury Department. That number has more than quadrupled from the same period last year, and there is evidence that these investors are stepping up their purchases of some U.S. securities even as they diversify into other markets.
While oil-exporting nations have received less attention for their role as investors, collectively the total value of their purchases of U.S. securities this year is more than twice that of China. The 16 countries represent just more than 7% of the total investment flowing into the U.S. market, the largest share these nations have had since the Treasury began breaking down this data in 1996. Even after a bit of a falloff in foreign buying in the third quarter, demand still looks healthy.
"The oil producers have been significant buyers this year and have helped offset declining demand from China," says Joseph Quinlan , chief market strategist for Banc of America Capital Management.
These purchases have helped support the U.S. market and the economy, because most of the money has gone into bonds and thus helped to drive down interest rates. This year, foreign investors are on pace to pour more than $900 billion into various types of U.S. bonds, while they are trimming their holdings of U.S. stocks for the first time in years.
In oil regions there are signs that some producers are diversifying out of the U.S., putting more money into Europe. But because these nations are so flush with oil cash, U.S. coffers still are benefiting from a smaller piece of an expanding investment pie, Mr. Quinlan says.
Indeed, eight Middle Eastern nations -- including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait -- have been net buyers of about $15 billion of U.S. securities through September. That compares with net sales of U.S. securities by those nations in 2002 and 2003. But the biggest buyer among oil producers by far is Mexico, with nearly $21 billion in net purchases, nearly double the amount over the period last year.
The flow of funds from these nations illustrates just how deep the bench is for the U.S. bond market. With China's purchases of U.S. securities down almost 50% from the first nine months of last year, increased buying by countries such as Mexico and Russia, among others, has helped support the bond market.
"China and Japan are getting all the spotlight in terms of their purchases of Treasurys, but not far behind them are oil-producing nations," says Alex Li, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston.
The persistence of foreign demand was on display last week during the auction of $15 billion in five-year U.S. Treasury notes. More than 60% of those notes were sold to so-called indirect bidders, which often are foreign central banks or other foreign investors.
Fears of broader foreign selling in the bond market so far have been unfounded. Through the first three quarters of the year, foreign investors and central banks have bought a net $302 billion in Treasury bonds and notes, $227 billion in corporate bonds and $165 billion in federal-agency bonds and mortgage bonds.
Oil-producing nations especially are attracted to U.S. bonds because they are easy to trade and because they are carrying slightly higher yields than they did in 2003, says Adnan Akant, a managing director at investment firm Fischer Francis Trees & Watts.
Oil producers have been reaching beyond super-safe Treasurys into bonds with higher yields and stocks. Much of the money flowing into the U.S. this year from member nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, for example, has been going to government-agency bonds as opposed to Treasurys.
There is no guarantee that foreigners will continue their purchases at record pace, however. Demand from these oil-producing countries fell sharply in the third quarter, perhaps as these investors began to fret about the weakening dollar, the potential for rising U.S. interest rates or uncertainty before the U.S. presidential election.
"The question today is whether or not the third-quarter downturn in purchases was a blip or the beginning of a trend," says Mr. Quinlan of Banc of America Capital Management. "We lean toward the latter. They're losing money holding dollars if the dollar continues to weaken."
The latest quarterly report from the Bank of International Settlements also has raised some concern that OPEC nations were looking to diversify their holdings away from U.S. assets. The Bank of International Settlements said OPEC countries' dollar-denominated deposits fell even as their investments in euro-based securities rose. The report indicated the rebalancing may have been in response to U.S. interest rates falling below those of Europe over the period, making European bonds more attractive, though that trend recently reversed.
产油国增持美国证券
就在亚洲央行和其他海外投资者可能冷落美国证券的担忧愈演愈烈之际，产油国却出人意料地脱颖而出，对美国证券，尤其是债券的需求不断上升。
根据美国财政部(Treasury Department)的最新数据，今年1至9月份，包括中东国家、俄罗斯、墨西哥和委内瑞拉在内的16个主要石油出口国净买进了500亿美元的美国债券和股票。这一数字是去年同期的4倍以上，而且有证据表明，尽管这些投资者采取了多元化策略同时投资于其他市场，但他们的某些美国证券买入量正在不断增加。
虽然石油出口国作为投资者的作用一直不为外界注意，但今年这些国家购买美国证券的总额是中国的两倍以上。这16国占流入美国市场总投资的比例略高于7%，是美国财政部1996年开始公布分类明细以来这些国家所达到的最大比例。即使在第三季度海外购买量出现了一定程度的回落，它们的需求依然维持在正常水平上。
Banc of America Capital Management的首席市场策略师约瑟夫?昆兰(Joseph Quinlan)说，产油国是今年的大买家，在一定程度上抵消了中国需求下降的影响。
这些国家的购买行为支撑了美国市场及其经济，因为大多数资金都涌入到债券中，使利率降低。今年，海外投资者总共投入9,000多亿美元购买各种美国债券，但其持有的美国股票头寸却出现了多年来的首次下降。
在产油国中，有迹象表明部分国家执行了多元化策略，将越来越多的资金投入到欧洲。但昆兰表示，因为这些国家从出口石油中获得了大量现金，美国仍从投资总量的扩大中获利匪浅。
的确，沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和科威特等8个中东国家今年前9个月共净买进了大约150亿美元的美国证券，而这些国家在2002年和2003年一直在净卖出美国证券。但迄今为止，产油国中最大的买家是墨西哥，净购买量接近210亿美元，几乎是去年同期的两倍。
这些国家资金的流入对美国债市可谓是雪中送炭。今年前9个月中国购买美国证券的数量比上年同期减少了约50%，而墨西哥和俄罗斯等国增加购买量对支撑债券市场发挥了不容忽视的作用。
瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)利率策略师李振伟(Alex Li)说，中国和日本在购买美国国债的数量上仍名列前茅，但产油国也紧随其后。
海外需求的持续性在上周150亿美元美国国债的拍卖中尽显无遗。这批国债中，有超过60%卖给了所谓的间接竞标者（一般为外国央行或其他海外投资者）。
对海外投资者将在债券市场上大举抛售的担忧还没有变成现实。今年前三个季度，海外投资者和各国央行净买进了3,020亿美元的美国国债及票据、2,270亿美元的企业债券和1,650亿美元的联邦机构债券及抵押债券。
投资机构Fischer Francis Trees & Watts的董事总经理阿德南?阿坎特(Adnan Akant)说，产油国尤其青睐美国债券，因为其易于交易，且收益率略高于2003年时的水平。
产油国一直回避过于安全的美国国债，而更愿购买收益率更高的债券和股票。比如，石油输出国组织(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)成员国今年流入美国的大部分资金都购买了政府机构债券，而不是美国国债。
但并不能保证海外投资者还将继续大举购买美国证券。产油国的需求在第三季度大幅下降，也许是因为这些投资者开始对美元走软、美国可能上调利率及美国大选的不确定性感到担忧。Banc of America Capital Management的昆兰称，目前的问题是第三季度购买量的减少是暂时现象还是下跌趋势的开始。他说：“我们倾向于后者。如果美元继续走低，他们持有美元资产将会得不偿失。”
国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的最新季度报告也对欧佩克成员国分散投资的计划表示关注。国际清算银行称，欧佩克成员国以美元计价的投资出现下降，而以欧元计价的证券投资则出现上升。这份报告说明，美元利率低于同期的欧元利率（但这种趋势最近出现了逆转），这使得欧洲债券更具吸引力，从而导致市场去重新寻找平衡。
