中国: 朝鲜应该受到“惩罚”

China calls for punitive actions on N Korea

China said yesterday that North Korea should suffer "punitive actions" for its claimed nuclear test, in an apparent retreat from its long-standing opposition to international sanctions against Pyongyang.

The extent of sanctions favoured by Beijing was still unclear but Wang Guangya, China's ambassador to the United Nations, said a 13-point US proposal - which included inspections of cargo ships entering and leaving North Korea - provided a "good basis for working". He added: "There has to be some punitive actions, but these actions have to be appropriate."


ADVERTISEMENT
A US draft resolution circulating yesterday would compel governments to prevent the transfer of arms, missiles or nuclear items - or luxury goods - to or from North Korea. Additional proposals from Japan, which chairs the security council, would bar North Korean ships and aircraft, and high-ranking officials, from member states.

John Bolton, US ambassador to the UN, said after meeting Mr Wang: "There were substantial areas of agreement. There is a strong view to move as quickly as we can . . . a strong resolution and a swift response."

The Russian position was unclear since the delegation had no instructions from Moscow.

Sergei Ivanov, Russian defence minister, said the reported test was a "colossal blow" but any UN resolution would not involve the use of force.

China's reaction is critical to the passage of an effective resolution and its policing. Pyongyang's decision to carry out missile and nuclear bomb tests in spite of strong Chinese opposition has been seen in China as a demonstration of the failure of Beijing's strategy of playing a moderating role between North Korea, regional neighbours and the US.

In Seoul, the "sunshine policy" of economic engagement with North Korea is being questioned after Pyongyang's decision to go ahead with the test showed how little sway South Korea had over its neighbour. "The government sees it is unavoidable to make certain changes to its policies as we are in a situation where adjustments to inter-Korean relations are inevitable," said Lee Jong-seok, South Korea's unification minister. "But I believe the government must be careful when taking any measures that would raise tension or make our people feel uneasy."

Tony Snow, White House spokesman, said the US had less ability to influence Pyongyang than countries in the region.

Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, has called for "harsher measures" against Pyongyang, a position echoed by Koji Omi, his finance minister, who said Japan was considering additional financial sanctions.

By Mark Turner at the United Nations, David Pilling and Anna Fifield in Seoul, RichardMcGregor in Beijing, Caroline Daniel in Washington and Stephen Fidler in London
中国: 朝鲜应该受到“惩罚”

中国昨日表示，朝鲜应该因其核试验而承受“惩罚行动”，显然放弃了反对国际社会对平壤实施制裁的长期立场。

中国政府会赞成多大力度的制裁，目前尚不清楚，但中国驻联合国大使王光亚表示，美国的13点建议提供了解决问题的良好基础。美国的建议包括对进入和离开朝鲜的货船进行检查。王光亚表示，必须采取一些惩罚行动，但这些行动必须适当。

美国昨日的决议草案要求，各国政府不得向朝鲜输入或输出军火、导弹或核产品、或是奢侈品。安理会轮值主席国日本还提议，成员国封锁朝鲜的船舶、飞机和高官访问。


美国驻联合国大使约翰?博尔顿(John Bolton)在与王光亚会面后表示：“我们在许多领域都存在共识。大家都强烈认为应该尽快行动……拿出强有力的决议，作出快速反应。”俄罗斯代表团由于没有得到莫斯科指示，立场尚不明晰。

俄罗斯国防部长谢尔盖?伊万诺夫(Sergei Ivanov)表示，朝鲜公布的核试验是一个“巨大打击”，但联合国的任何解决方案都不会涉及动用武力。

中国的反应，对决议的通过与有效执行都至关重要。在中国，人们认为，尽管遭到中国的强烈反对，朝鲜仍决定进行导弹和核弹试验，这表明，中国政府在朝鲜、地区邻国和美国之间扮演居中调停角色的战略失败了。

在首尔，韩国与朝鲜开展经济往来的“阳光政策”(sunshine policy)受到质疑。平壤进行核试验的决定表明，韩国对其邻邦的影响力是何等微弱。“韩国政府认为，对其政策进行某些改变是不可避免的，因为在我们目前的形势下，调整韩朝关系势在必行，”韩国统一部长官李钟

朝鲜核试冲击波
China angered by policy failure

China's sharp condemnation of North Korea's nuclear test as "brazen" defiance of the international community reflects not just Beijing's anger at Pyongyang's behaviour but also the abject failure of its own policy to restrain its neighbour.

Beijing, North Korea's largest provider of oil and food aid, has consistently counselled caution in dealing with Pyongyang and refused to countenance economic sanctions, all to no effect.


ADVERTISEMENT
"This is the biggest diplomatic failure since the establishment of the People's Republic [in 1949]," said Zhang Liankui, a professor at Central Party School in Beijing. "China is the biggest loser, as it has offended both North Korea and the US."

The test puts China under greater pressure than ever to join other nations in marshalling North Korea, even as it remains reluctant to use whatever leverage it has through the aid it extends to Pyongyang.

Despite official proclamations that the two nations are as close "as lips and teeth", China and North Korea have tense relations, symbolised by their vastly different development paths in the past quarter of a century.

China has grown rapidly with the embrace of market reforms, while North Korea, despite years of entreaties from Beijing, has only recently allowed limited experiments with liberalising its economy. China's impatience has become increasingly apparent in recent months, with Beijing officials making a stream of unusually critical statements in public about their fraternal neighbour.

Yesterday was the final straw for Beijing, said Yan Xuetong, of Tsinghua University, who compared the breach between China and North Korea to the Sino-Soviet split in the 1950s. "The old relationship has gone to hell," he said.

But prominent scholars are divided about what China should do next. Prof Yan said Pyongyang's decision to delay the test until yesterday, even though it probably had the capability to conduct one for some time, reflected a political response to outside pressure.

"One of the issues was US financial sanctions, which unfortunately China did not oppose," he said.

Likewise, the imposition by China of new sanctions would have little impact, as Pyongyang would have factored such a response into its decision. Once North Korea "decided to go nuclear", it meant they knew they could expect no aid or military protection from China, he said.

Mr Zhang said China's diplomacy on the Korean peninsula had to be more "active and responsible" to get results and more aligned with other countries' efforts.

"It was a stupid policy for China to view North Korea's nuclear weapon as potential leverage against the US. Instead, the nuclear weapon will be mainly aimed at China," he said.

Aside from sanctions, the focus of Chinese diplomacy will be trying to head off a domino effect in the region.
朝鲜核试冲击波


中
国强烈谴责朝鲜进行核试验，称这是对国际社会的“悍然”挑衅。这不仅反映出北京对平壤此举的愤怒，也表明中国约束朝鲜的政策以失败告终。

作为朝鲜最大的石油和粮食援助提供国，中国政府一向提倡在与朝鲜政府打交道时保持谨慎，并拒绝支持经济制裁，但这一切都毫无成效。

“这是新中国成立(1949年)以来最大的外交失败，”北京中央党校教授张琏瑰表示。“中国是最大的输家，因为我们把朝鲜和美国都给得罪了。”


尽管中国仍不愿动用其作为援助国而具备的一切手段，但朝鲜此次核试验使中国面临前所未有的压力，使其不得不与其它国家一道管束朝鲜。

尽管官方宣称两国关系“唇齿相依”，但实际上中朝关系颇为紧张，过去25年中两国截然不同的发展道路就是明证。

奉行市场化改革的中国，实现了快速经济增长。而尽管中国政府多年来一再劝告，朝鲜也只是在近年才允许进行有限的经济开放试验。中国方面逐渐失去耐心，这在最近几个月中表现得越来越明显，中国官员不寻常地多次公开指责朝鲜。

清华大学教授阎学通表示，周一的核试是中国政府忍耐的极限。他将中朝反目与20世纪50年代中苏关系破裂相提并论。“双方的长期关系破灭了，”他表示。

但对于中国下一步应采取何种行动，知名学者们存在分歧。阎学通表示，尽管朝鲜具备核试验能力也许已有一段时间了，但平壤将其推迟到本周才进行，这一决定是朝鲜对外界压力所作出的政治反应。“原因之一是美国实行的金融制裁，而不幸的是，中国没有反对，”他说道。

同样，即使中国进行新一轮制裁，也不会产生多大效果，因为平壤在决策时可能已考虑到这种反应。

阎学通称，一旦朝鲜“决定走上核道路”，就意味着他们明白，不能再指望从中国获得任何援助或军事保护。

张琏瑰称，中国对朝鲜半岛的外交政策必须更为“积极和负责任”，只有这样才能取得成果，另外这一政策也必须与其它国家的行动更好地协调。

“如果中国将朝鲜的核武器视为对付美国的潜在手段， 那将是一项愚蠢的政策。相反，朝鲜核武器的主要目标将是中国，”他表示。

上海复旦大学教授沈丁立在数天前发表了一篇文章，他在文中表示，中国应该只是“象征性”地参与对朝制裁，但应“避免经济制裁”。

沈丁立称，朝鲜政府似乎算定，中国最担心的是朝鲜发生美国鼓励的“体制改变”，从而丧失一个缓冲国。

他表示：“朝鲜不会因为中国的利益关切和对它可能施加压力，而放弃通过核试验而获得国家安全的独立保障。”

除采取制裁外，中国外交政策的重点应是竭力避免该地区产生多米诺骨牌效应，防止日本、韩国，甚至台湾研制核武器。

阎学通称：“中国的当务之急应该是与美国接触，努力防止发生多米诺骨牌效应，另一方面与朝鲜接触，将其拉回到《不扩散核武器条约》中来。”

中韩担心金正日政权垮台

Asia Weighs Risk of Sanctions

North Korea's Neighbors Fear Pressure May Breed Regional Chaos

As the United Nations Security Council mulls sanctions against North Korea, it must consider one question that could affect the stability of North Asia for years to come: Would the collapse of Kim Jong Il's government prove more dangerous than leaving him in charge of a nuclear-armed state?

The prospect of regime change in Pyongyang may cheer many in Washington who view Mr. Kim as running a militarist regime that has tortured and starved its own people and traded missiles to Pakistan, Iran, Syria and others. But turmoil in North Korea could damage the economies of China and South Korea, set off a refugee crisis and lead to military conflict.

How the U.S. and Asia assess these risks could influence the outcome of Security Council meetings to decide how to respond to Pyongyang's announcement Monday that it detonated a nuclear device. The Bush administration is seeking to isolate North Korea, choking off money flow to its elite and preventing it from trading in materials used in weapons systems. It remains to be seen how long the regime would survive under strict sanctions.

NUCLEAR AMBITIONS


? World Press Reacts: Resonating Blast

? North Korea Test Threatens Treaties

? Claim May Help U.S. Efforts on Iran

? Republicans Mine Pyongyang for Voter Support

? Pyongyang Puts China in a Bind

? Vote: How would you grade the U.S.'s handling of the "axis of evil"?

? Bush's statement | World reaction | Who Has Nukes

? Framing the Issue | Timeline | Complete coverage

Yesterday, China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya told reporters China is willing to back "some punitive actions" but said those actions "have to be appropriate."

Still, the U.S. push for comprehensive sanctions that could topple the Kim regime is likely to be resisted by China and South Korea. "China won't agree to very stern sanctions," said Tao Wenzhao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. A collapse of the North Korean regime would cause "serious economic and social problems for China" and "be bad for stability in Northeast Asia," he said.

The Bush administration has never formally tied itself to a policy of regime change, but instead it continues to hold open the possibility of negotiating with North Korea to eradicate its weapons programs. At the same time, Washington has ratcheted up financial pressure on Pyongyang over the past two years. That has made it increasingly difficult for North Korea to access outside funds. The U.S. has also, along with Japan, largely stopped food-aid shipments to North Korea. Both countries provided large amounts of such aid to the country in the 1990s.

Many North Korean officials view U.S. policies as wholly focused on removing Kim Jong Il, say people who recently visited. "No doubt that's how they see it," said Selig Harrison, an American researcher who met with senior North Korean officials last month.

Some U.S. officials who have worked on North Korea policy in recent years argue Washington has only limited understanding of the fallout from a potential regime change. They say the Bush administration's approach has largely been driven by what they describe as President Bush's hatred of Mr. Kim, and not a comprehensive strategy.

"I'm sure at times there are people who look at the odds of collapse and there are all sorts of contingency plans," said David Straub, who headed the State Department's Office of Korean Affairs from 2002 to 2004. "But no one really knows if and when there'd be an institutional collapse."

In South Korea, the approach taken by President Roh Moo Hyun -- trying to engage the North with economic incentives -- has meant regime change was rarely discussed in public. In the wake of the claimed nuclear test, some opposition lawmakers are starting to raise the topic.

"The nuclear test changes the circumstance," said Chung Mun Hun, a legislator who belongs to the conservative Grand National Party.

One concern among Chinese and South Korean policy makers is who would take over if Mr. Kim were deposed.


"The alternatives could easily be worse," said Peter Beck, a Korea expert at the nonprofit International Crisis Group. "The most likely thing would be a military junta. That's the best-case scenario."

Another possibility is civil war, with factions within the army and other parts of the elite struggling for control. Such a scenario could prompt China, South Korea or other players to intervene, either to back favored successors or to attempt to quell violence.

U.S. military experts say they expect Chinese troops would move into North Korea to establish a buffer zone and prevent refugee flows across the border. The U.S. military's top priority would be securing North Korea's nuclear material and other suspected weapons of mass destruction.

South Korea's army would likely try to restore order and extend Seoul's U.S.-backed administration over the northern half of the Korean peninsula -- resulting in a possible struggle for influence with China, analysts said.

A collapse of the Kim regime would also likely spark economic dislocation. South Korean government planners predict more than two million North Koreans, out of a population of 23 million, would flee south across the demilitarized zone, overwhelming social services. The planners say financial markets would swoon and inflation would jump. Crisis-management costs alone could total $6.5 billion.

Marcus Noland, a Korea expert at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, estimates the cost of unifying North and South Korea would be about $600 billion over the first decade the two states merged.

Many Chinese fret over the costs of a potential refugee exodus to China's economy. "We worry it will damage China's golden opportunity for development," which needs "a nice stable environment," said Shen Shishun, a researcher at the Chinese Institute of International Studies.

Backers of fast change in North Korea's regime argue that supporting gradual transformation of the North will be far more expensive than a sudden break with the past. They say rebuilding the North Korean economy would be much more efficient with the old regime and its centrally planned economic system out of the way, and both North and South would derive a significant peace dividend by demobilizing their militaries.

Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank in Honolulu, an arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said other countries have tolerated North Korea because the cost of ousting Mr. Kim and rebuilding the country has been perceived to be too high.

"But if the cost of not having regime change is having it as a demonstrated nuclear state, then maybe that cost is too high," he said. "It's got to be the Chinese and South Koreans who say enough is enough."
中韩担心金正日政权垮台

在针对朝鲜核试验而发出的各种谴责声以及采取的诸多外交行动背后，隐藏着国际社会一种深深的恐惧：独裁者金正日的垮台可能比他继续执掌一个核国家更危险、更具破坏性。

朝鲜周一上午引爆了一个威力巨大但性质不明的爆炸物，就在联合国安理会正在权衡它对此将作何反应时，联合国各成员国也在权衡如何既表达出阻止核武器扩散的强烈意愿，又兼顾严厉制裁有可能加速金正日政权垮台这种可能性。

相关报导

? 中国驻联合国大使称朝鲜必须受到惩罚
? 朝鲜核试验令中国左右为难
? 朝鲜宣布成功进行了核试验
? 中国“坚决反对”朝鲜进行核试验
朝鲜发生政权更迭的前景固然令华盛顿的许多人士欣喜，但对朝鲜的邻国特别是中国和韩国来说，较之核武器扩散这种“远忧”，金正日政权的垮台才是迫在眉睫的心腹之患，因此它们希望维持现状的意愿十分强烈。

北京和首尔担心，朝鲜政局出现混乱会严重损害两国的经济，引发军事冲突，并有可能使东北亚的力量平衡出现无法预料的变数。

这种心态从中国两位官员相互矛盾的讲话中就可略见一斑。在北京，中国外交部发言人刘建超虽然指责了平壤，但也表示，联合国应“采取积极和适当的行动”，以鼓励朝鲜重新回到旨在实现朝鲜半岛无核化的多边谈判中来。而在纽约，中国常驻联合国代表则表示，朝鲜因其核试验必须面临一些“惩罚性行动”，这表明北京可能愿意支持安理会对朝鲜实施某种形式的制裁。中国常驻联合国代表王光亚对记者们说，安理会必须对朝鲜进行核试验的行为作出“果断、富有建设性和恰当的但又不失谨慎的反应。”

即使这样，中国与美国以武力威胁作后盾对朝鲜实施广泛制裁的立场可能仍有差距。华盛顿正呼吁对朝鲜采取的制裁实际上会切断朝鲜与外界的金融联系，并使得朝鲜无法进出口与武器有关的产品。

虽然一些外交官和分析人士表示，如果不对朝鲜实施全面禁运，其他制裁措施可能不足以导致朝鲜政权近期内出现更迭，但即使是逐步加大的制裁压力最终也有可能打乱朝鲜社会脆弱的平衡。

而在韩国，由于卢武铉总统试图借助经济援助实施一种对朝接触政策，因此该国很少公开提及朝鲜的政权更迭问题。而在朝鲜周一宣称进行了核试验之后，韩国的一些反对党议员已开始提出了这一话题。

反对党大国家党的议员Chung Mun Hun说：“局势因核试验而出现了改变。如果我们接受联合国(与军事有关的)制裁，那么我们也应顺理成章地谈论朝鲜的政权更迭问题。”

不过，北京和首尔预计仍不愿支持任何有可能危及金正日统治的制裁措施。

中国社会科学院研究员陶文钊预测说：“中国不会同意实施非常严厉的制裁。”因为朝鲜政权垮台“将会给中国造成严重的经济和社会问题”，也“不利于东北亚地区的稳定”。

中国和韩国忧心的一件事是，如果金正日下台，朝鲜接下来会发生什么。非盈利组织International Crisis Group的朝鲜问题专家彼得?贝克(Peter Beck)说：“取代他的人很有可能更糟。最有可能出现的是军人执政。这还是最好的一种可能了。”

如果朝鲜军方或朝鲜统治集团的其他部门发生为获取国家控制权而展开派别争斗，朝鲜还有可能爆发内战。这有可能导致中国、韩国或其他方面出面干预，或是支持自己中意的金正日继承人，或是试图平息朝鲜国内的混乱局面。

美国军事专家预计，如果朝鲜发生内乱，中国军队将入朝建立一个缓冲带，并阻止朝鲜难民进入中国。而美军的首要任务则是控制住朝鲜的核材料以及其他疑似大规模杀伤性武器。

韩国军队预计会试图在朝鲜恢复秩序，并在美国的支持下将韩国的统治权扩展到朝鲜，而这有可能受到朝鲜的政治精英们以及中国的反对。首尔相应地也会反击中国试图在朝鲜建立一个亲北京政府的任何努力。

政局混乱也有可能导致经济失控。韩国政府官员担心，如果朝鲜的国内秩序大乱，可能会有200多万朝鲜人越过朝韩边界的非军事区涌入韩国，从而压垮韩国的社会救助体系。这些官员预计，届时韩国的金融市场将会瘫痪，通货膨胀将大幅攀升。仅危机管理成本一项预计就将达到65亿美元。

华盛顿国际经济研究所的经济学家和朝鲜问题专家马库斯?诺兰(Marcus Noland)估计，朝鲜和韩国的统一成本在两国合并后的头10年就有可能达到6,000亿美元左右。

一些分析人士认为，南北朝鲜统一的难度将要大于两德统一，因为朝鲜与韩国的贫富差距要大于当年东德与西德的贫富差距，而朝鲜与韩国的人口数量则比当年东德与西德的人口数量更接近。朝鲜有2,300万人口，韩国的人口约为4,800万。要改善朝鲜落后的交通基础设施、能源体系和工业设施，需要花费大量的资金。

除此之外，由于朝鲜和韩国的国民50年来一直生活在不同的经济制度下，且两国自1953年停战以来理论上仍一直处于交战状态，因此两国人民存在着巨大的文化和社会行为差距。随着近年来有更多的朝鲜难民和叛逃者投奔韩国，这种差距对韩国人来说已是不争的事实。

44岁的朝鲜人Chae Su Rin是1999年经由中国逃到韩国的，她说自己在韩国仍难以找到工作，也难以理解在韩国应如何生活。“我能吃，但我不能适应，”她说。“这里没有我的容身之处。”

中国也在担心，如果朝鲜政权垮台，大量涌入的难民会给自己带来各种有形和无形的社会成本。中国国际问题研究所的研究员沈世顺说：“我们担心这将损害中国难得的发展机遇。”因为中国需要“稳定的周边环境”。

对北京和首尔所持对朝接触政策持批评态度的人说，支持朝鲜以渐进方式转变所付出的代价要比使朝鲜与过去一刀两断大得多。还有人声称，这种慢慢来的政策实际上是使普通朝鲜人继续处在经济贫困和政治高压之下。

他们说，如果粉碎朝鲜的旧政权及其扭曲的中央计划经济体系，朝鲜经济重建工作的效率将会大大提高。向朝鲜现有的经济体系投入1美元，其产出要比向一个市场经济体系投入1美元获得的产出额小得多。而如果朝鲜半岛北南双方能够化剑为犁，他们还能够分享可观的和平红利。

美国国际战略研究中心下属机构Pacific Forum CSIS的负责人拉尔夫?柯萨(Ralph Cossa)说，由于推翻金正日和重建朝鲜的成本太高，所以其他国家一直在容忍朝鲜现政权。

但他也表示，如果允许朝鲜不发生政权更迭的成本是容许朝鲜成为张牙舞爪的核国家，那这一成本可能也太高了，现在是中国人和韩国人说自己受够了的时候了。

但金融市场对朝鲜核试验的沉默反应以及中国和韩国普通民众对这一事件的漠视，却显示没有什么人预计朝鲜局势近期内会有大的改变。

在周一下跌2.4%后，韩国基准的韩国综合指数周二以小幅上扬报收。日经指数周二也小幅上扬。日本股市周一因假日而休市。

韩国50岁的商人Lee Wan Ho周二在首尔说：“这种局面已持续了如此长的时间，人们都麻木了。”他说，紧张气氛已有缓和，虽然朝鲜进行了核试验，但没人认为朝鲜半岛有可能爆发战争。

Gordon Fairclough / Evan Ramstad

A stark choice for Pyongyang: reform or the abyss

Is there anything that can now be done about North Korea's nuclear arsenal? After all, it has probably had one or two nuclear warheads for more than a decade and up to 10 for a couple of years. It has watched Pakistan test warheads, be punished and then forgiven. It has watched the alliance between South Korea and the US struggle during the Bush administration, with Seoul and Washington competing to see who will undo the joint command structure that has ensured military deterrence and stability on the peninsula more rapidly than the other.

The short answer is that we must try. Given North Korea's record of selling weaponry and nuclear technology abroad, its proclivities for brinkmanship and the likely domino effect of nuclear proliferation in east Asia, nuclear weapons in its hands make the world a notably less safe place. So a major new US policy effort is needed. The core of a new policy should be to force North Korea to decide between more economic and diplomatic engagement on the one hand and less on the other. The goal should be to make the status quo untenable for Pyongyang; forcing it to choose between a better relationship with the outside world - as well as more trade, investment and assistance - and the prospect of pressure and coercion. Does it want to become the next Vietnam, reforming its economy and society from within a communist system? Or does it wish to sink into the abyss of further economic decline and possible state failure?


ADVERTISEMENT
The US and its regional partners, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia, should offer Pyongyang carrots but threaten sticks if it remains recalcitrant. In offering incentives, they should be careful not to set a precedent for rewarding illicit behaviour by granting North Korea large benefits for undoing a nuclear programme it should not have had in the first place. They should make more comprehensive demands - not only denuclearisation, but reductions in conventional forces and missiles, elimination of chemical arms, structural economic reform, human rights improvements - as a condition for substantial increases in aid. If Pyongyang is prepared to make such a deal, or even move significantly towards reformist policies, Washington and other capitals should be clear that they are prepared to help finance a transition to a Vietnam-style economy in North Korea. Aid of $2bn-$3bn (￡1.1bn-￡1.6bn) a year for several years, to help build infrastructure and revitalise agriculture and improve the public health and even education systems, would make sense if North Korea were to move verifiably in this direction. US bans on trade and investment could also be gradually lifted; a temporary US diplomatic presence could lead to full relations and a permanent embassy within several years if all went well. The United Nations system, including the World Bank, could help as well under the direction of Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general designate.

This is an ambitious vision. It would probably not appeal initially to Kim Jong-il, North Korea's leader - who might worry that once reform was unleashed, he would suffer the fate of Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania, who was overthrown and executed, rather than that of the reformist leaders of modern-day Vietnam or China. But those two countries have shown the way by retaining a communist superstructure, which could make the idea palatable to Mr Kim and (regrettable as it may be) allow him to remain in power as he transformed his nation. Moreover, Mr Kim would be forced to choose between reform and the slow strangulation of his state.

Making such a choice stark and be-lievable will require remarkable diplomacy, given the unwillingness of South Korea and China to coerce North Korea under virtually any circumstance. But this week's nuclear test may create an opportunity, as it has shocked countries in the region normally inclined to treat North Korea with kid gloves.

Military options would not be off the table, especially if North Korea either threatened to sell nuclear materials abroad or continued construction on its large reactors. One possibility, though hardly a panacea, would be a "surgical" military strike against the larger reactors. Even though it is too late to prevent North Korea from having the plutonium for perhaps 10 bombs, it is not too late to prevent it becoming an industrial-scale producer of weapons.

But the riskiness of even such a limited use of force should focus all our minds on the need to construct a united front and pose Pyongyang a stark choice at this precarious moment.

The writer, senior fellow at Brookings, is co-author with Kurt Campbell of Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security (Basic Books)
如何对付朝鲜？


对
于朝鲜核武器的问题，世界还能做些什么吗？毕竟，朝鲜拥有一两个核弹头可能已逾十年，而近两年来可能拥有多达10枚核弹头。它看到，巴基斯坦试验核弹头受到了制裁，随后又得到了宽恕。它也看到，美韩联盟在布什(Bush)执政期间步履维艰：首尔和华盛顿方面争来争去，仿佛要看谁能更快打破联合指挥体制――这一体制曾确保了朝鲜半岛的军事威慑和稳定。

简短的答案是：我们必须尝试。考虑到朝鲜有将武器和核技术卖到国外的历史、施行“悬崖”政策的倾向，同时东亚有可能出现核扩散的多米诺骨牌效应，朝鲜拥有核武器会使世界的安全性明显下降。因此，美国需要制定一项新的重大政策。新政策的核心应该是，迫使朝鲜在是否更积极地参与经济和外交事务方面做出抉择。政策的目标应该是使平壤无法维持现状，迫使其在与外界建立较良好关系（以及获得更多的贸易、投资和援助）和可能遭遇压力和强制行动之间作出选择。它是否希望成为下一个越南，在社会主义体制内进行经济和社会改革？还是愿意陷入更深的经济衰退甚至“失败国家”的深渊中？

美国及其地区伙伴韩国、日本、中国和俄罗斯应该给朝鲜政府提供“胡萝卜”，但如果朝鲜仍旧冥顽不化，那么就应以“大棒”相威胁。在提供激励的时候，它们应该谨慎从事，不要仅仅为了让朝鲜取消其原本就不应拥有的计划，而给予其太多好处，从而开创回报违法行为的先河。这些国家应提出更为全面的要求：作为大幅增加援助的条件，不仅要拆除核武器，还要削减常规军事力量和导弹、销毁化学武器、进行经济结构改革、改善人权状况。如果朝鲜政府准备做这笔交易，或者甚至准备朝着改革政策的方向采取更大的行动，那么美国和其它国家政府就应明确，他们愿意资助朝鲜向越南式经济的转型。如果朝鲜确实要向着这一方向迈进，那么有必要在数年内每年提供20亿至30亿美元的援助，以帮助朝鲜进行基础设施建设，重振农业，改善公共医疗乃至教育体系。美国也可以逐渐解除对朝贸易和投资禁令；美国临时的外交存在可能导致两国建立全面关系，并且，如果一切进展顺利的话，数年内在朝鲜建立永久性使馆。包括世界银行(World Bank)在内的联合国(UN)系统，也可能在已被提名出任联合国秘书长的潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)指示下提供帮助。


这是一个雄心勃勃的设想。它最初或许无法打动朝鲜领导人金正日(Kim Jong-il)――他可能担心一旦改革铺开，他会遭受罗马尼亚前领导人尼古拉?齐奥塞斯库(Nicolae Ceausescu)的命运（被推翻并处死），而非当代越南或中国改革派领导人的命运。但是，这两个国家保留了社会主义上层建筑，从而指明了道路，让这一设想更合金正日的心意，使他得以在国家变革过程中继续把持大权（尽管这或许让人遗憾)。此外，金正日将被迫在施行改革和他的国家被缓慢扼杀之间做出选择。

鉴于实际上韩国和中国在任何情况下都不愿强迫朝鲜，要做出这样一个严峻而可信的选择，需要非同寻常的外交手腕。不过，本周的核试验可能将创造一个机会，因为这使该地区那些通常倾向于小心翼翼地对待朝鲜的国家感到震惊。

动武的可能性不能排除，特别是如果朝鲜威胁把核材料卖到国外，或继续修建大型核反应堆的话。可能性之一是对较大的反应堆实施“外科手术式”军事打击，虽说这算不上什么万灵丹。尽管阻挠朝鲜拥有10枚核弹头所需的钚原料已为时过晚，但阻止其批量制造核武器还来得及。

但是，即便是这种有限使用武力的风险，也应让我们聚焦这样的需要：值此动荡之际，建立一条联合阵线，迫使平壤接受严峻的选择。

本文作者是布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)高级研究员，曾与科特?坎贝尔(Kurt Campbell)合著《Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security》Basic Books 出版社出版)

(back)South Korea, Japan and Taiwan not rushing to join nuclear club

North Korea's claimed nuclear test has renewed discussions in neighbouring countries about whether they should develop atomic weapons programmes, a question that will fuel fears of a fresh arms race.

Although South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are all considered highly unlikely to join the nuclear club in the near future, analysts say the presence of three nuclear powers in north-east Asia - China, Russia and now, perhaps, North Korea - is giving pause for thought.


ADVERTISEMENT
South Korea is negotiating to take over wartime control of its military from the US, a change that has left many South Koreans feeling vulnerable and has led to calls for a stronger deterrent against the North.

But Monday's test, if validated, was also confirmation North Korea had breached the 1991 joint declaration under which both Koreas agreed not to produce nuclear weapons.

"There are people in the [South Korean] government who will raise doubts, questions about how long we should be bound by a political commitment supposed to bind North Korea but that North Korea is in material breach of," a senior South Korean government official told the Financial Times.

Many South Koreans take it as a given that they will become a nuclear state - by inheriting the North's weapons programme upon unification. A survey by the Dong-a Ilbo news-paper last year found that 52 per cent of South Koreans thought their country should have nuclear weapons.

But many analysts think this debate is only theoretical. "I don't think we need nuclear weapons in this country," said Chang In-soon, former president of the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. "Energy security is a very serious issue so we will continue to have peaceful projects only."

Seoul has, however, raised the spectre that Tokyo might be prompted to join the nuclear club. Yu Myung-hwan, South Korea's vice-foreign minister, last week said a North Korean test could give Japan a "pretext" to go nuclear.

But Japanese scholars and government officials say that Japan is unlikely to seize on North Korea's test as an excuse to develop an independent nuclear deterrent of its own.

Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, said yesterday: "There will be no change in our non-nuclear arms principles."

Japan, which has one of the world's most developed nuclear power industries, could probably make a bomb within weeks. But public "allergy" to nuclear weapons because of the memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as constitutional obstacles to deploying them, make it unlikely that Mr Abe's new government would push the issue, they said.

Robert Dujarric, a security expert at the National Institute for Public Policy in the US, said that as long as Tokyo was convinced that the US-Japan alliance provided a credible deterrent, Japan would not substantially alter its policy.

When China's foreign ministry spokesman was asked if he was concerned that the North's test might encourage South Korea and Japan to develop nuclear arms, he replied that Beijing opposed all nuclear proliferation.

Chinese scholars and analysts say Beijing has reason to worry about the expansion of a nuclear club already already stretched to include India and Pakistan.

Although China's threat of war against Taiwan would in theory give the island one of the strongest incentives to develop nuclear weapons, military analysts and nuclear scientists say Taipei is unlikely to re-enter the ranks of threshold countries.
亚洲邻邦会效仿金正日吗？


朝
鲜进行核试验引发了周边国家有关它们自己是否应当研制核武器的新一轮讨论，这一问题将加剧人们对于新一轮军备竞赛的担忧。

分析人士表示，尽管一般认为韩国、日本和台湾在近期加入核俱乐部的可能性甚微，但东北亚地区存在三个核国家(中国、俄罗斯，还有难以预料的朝鲜)的局面，正促使人们反思。

韩国正与美国谈判，旨在从美军手中收回对韩国军队的战时控制权，这一变化让许多韩国人觉得缺乏安全感，并激起了加强对朝威慑的呼声。


但是，朝鲜周一进行的核试验还证明，它已经违反了南北朝鲜于1991年发表的联合声明，即两国同意实现朝鲜半岛无核化。韩国政府一位高级官员对《金融时报》表示：“这一政治承诺本应对朝鲜形成约束力，但朝鲜却严重违反了它。韩国政府中会有一些人发出疑问：我们还要被这一政治承诺束缚多久？”

许多韩国人认定韩国自然会成为核国家――因为韩国会在南北统一后接管朝鲜的核武器。去年，一项由《东亚日报》(Dong-A Ilbo)进行的调查发现，52%的韩国人认为他们的国家应当拥有核武器。

但许多分析人士认为，这种争论仅限于理论层面。“我认为我们国家不需要核武器，”韩国原子能研究院(Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute)前院长Chang In-soon表示。“能源安全是一个非常严肃的问题，因此我们将继续仅从事和平用途的项目。”

然而，首尔担心，朝鲜核试验可能促使东京加入核俱乐部。韩国外交通商部副长官尹永宽(Yu Myung-hwan)上周表示，朝鲜核试验可能为日本研制核武器提供“借口”。

但一些日本学者和政府官员表示，日本不太可能以朝鲜核试验为借口，独立开发自己的核威慑力量。

日本新任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)本周向国会表示：“日本不拥有核武器的原则不会改变。”

日本拥有世界上最先进的核能产业之一，有可能在数周内研制出核弹。但日本学者和官员们表示，鉴于广岛和长崎给日本人民留下的记忆，以及研制核武器所面临的宪法障碍，日本公众对核武器“反感”，因此安倍晋三领导的新一届政府不太可能推动这一进程。

美国国家公共政策研究院(National Institute for Public Policy)安全专家罗伯特?杜加里克(Robert Dujarric)表示，只要东京确信，美日同盟能够提供可靠的威慑，日本就不会从根本上改变其政策。

当中国外交部发言人被问及，中国是否担心朝鲜核试验会促使韩国和日本研制核武器时，他回答道，中国政府反对任何形式的核扩散。

但中国学者和分析人士称，中国政府的确有理由担心全球核能俱乐部可能扩大，就像上世纪90年代印度和巴基斯坦进行核试验那样。

尽管中国威胁对台湾发动军事打击，理论上成为台湾研制核武器的最有力动机之一，但军事分析家和核科学家们表示，台湾不太可能重新走上发展核武的道路。

“如果台湾决定加强它的防御力量，以抵御中国大陆进攻、或避免被迫按照中国大陆的条件协商统一问题时，核武器可能是一个选择，”台湾的中国高等政策研究会(Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies)秘书长杨念祖(Andrew Yang)表示。“但我们甚至还没有讨论到台湾是否应当加强防御力量的问题。”

Japan imposes tough sanctions on North Korea

Japan yesterday imposed draconian sanctions on Pyongyang, banning all ships, imports and most North Korean nationals from entering the country.

But its calls for equally tough global action received little support at the United Nations, where the chances of fashioning a rapid international response to Monday's claimed nuclear weapons test were fading.


ADVERTISEMENT
Discussions continued at the UN Security Council, where there appeared to be consensus about the need for punitive action. Differences remained over a US call for powers to intercept and inspect ships to prevent transport of equipment related to North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes. China and Russia, North Korea's neighbours, appear opposed to measures that would sanction force.

George W. Bush, US president, stressed diplomacy rather than military action. He called for a strong UN resolution to stop North Korea exporting nuclear technologies and to prevent financial transfers. He pledged to increase defence co-operation "on ballistic missile defence to protect against North Korean aggression, and co-operation to prevent North Korea from exporting nuclear and missile technologies".

Tokyo said Japan's unilateral measures should be distinguished from its efforts, as Security Council chair, to build international consensus on global sanctions.

Previous measures by Japan had reduced trade and financial transfers to North Korea drastically, experts said. North Korea's exports totalled about $1.3bn in 2005, of which shipments to Japan accounted for about 10 per cent, making it the third-largest importer after China and South Korea.

The administration of Shinzo Abe, the newly installed Japanese prime minister, is keen to find a common position with China and South Korea, the only countries with remaining economic leverage over Pyongyang.

Mr Abe, who has launched a bold diplomatic initiative, wants to use the North Korean nuclear issue to cement closer ties with the two countries, officials said.

Pyongyang twice said yesterday it would carry out another nuclear test if it came under increased pressure from Washington.

"If the US keeps pestering us and increases pressure, we will regard it as a declaration of war and will take a series of physical corresponding measures," the North's foreign ministry said in a statement published by the official Korean Central News Agency. "We were compelled to conduct a nuclear test because of the US nuclear threat and pressure of sanctions."

In its first comment since it announced Monday's test, the isolated country said: "We are ready for both dialogue and confrontation."
日本对朝鲜实施严厉制裁

日本昨日对朝鲜政府实施严厉制裁，禁止该国所有船舶、进口商品和绝大多数朝鲜国民进入日本。

但它关于采取同样强硬的全球行动的呼吁，在联合国(UN)却没有得到什么响应，联合国对朝鲜周一宣称的核试验做出快速国际反应的可能性，似乎正在下降。

联合国安理会(UN Security Council)继续就此进行讨论，与会者似乎一致认为，需要对朝鲜政府采取一些惩罚行动。


但外交人士表示，对于美国要求各国拦截并检查出入朝鲜的船舶，以防止朝鲜运送导弹及核武相关设备的呼吁，各方仍存在分歧。作为朝鲜的邻国，中国和俄罗斯似乎反对批准动用武力的举措。

美国总统布什(George W. Bush)强调使用外交手段，而不是军事行动。他呼吁联合国出台强有力的决议，阻止朝鲜出口核技术，并阻止财务转账。

布什承诺，将加强“弹道导弹防御方面的合作，以防备朝鲜的挑衅，并通过合作，阻止朝鲜出口核技术和导弹技术”。

日本官员表示，应将日本的单边措施与其作为安理会现任轮值主席国的努力区分开来。日本呼吁就针对朝鲜采取适当全球制裁达成共识。

专家表示，日本此前采取的措施已大幅减少对朝贸易和财务转账。根据日本共同通讯社(Kyodo)报道的官方估计数字，朝鲜2005年的出口总值约为13亿美元，其中对日发货约占10%，从而使日本成为朝鲜商品的第三大进口国，仅次于中国和韩国。

日本新任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)政府渴望找到与中韩两国的共同立场，这是仅有的两个对平壤尚有经济影响力的国家。

日本官员表示，安倍已主动采取行动，重建与这两个最重要邻邦的关系，并有意利用朝鲜问题与两国缔结更为紧密的关系。

Food aid sanctions could be 'lethal' for North Koreans

Aid agencies are urging the world's powers not to suspend humanitarian aid to North Korea as punishment for Kim Jong-il's claimed nuclear test, warning of widespread hunger in the isolated state if food is used as a political tool.

Aid donations for North Korea, where as many as 2m people died during a famine in the mid-1990s, have al-ready plummeted as a result of the escalating geopolitical crisis, a phenomenon exacerbated by devastating floods in July that killed hundreds and reportedly wiped out 100,000 tonnes of crops.


ADVERTISEMENT
As the international community considers how to punish North Korea for Monday's apparent nuclear test, proponents of a hardline approach have suggested suspending food aid among a raft of tough sanctions.

Human Rights Watch yesterday warned that while North Korea's nuclear weapons programme might have wide security implications for the region, suspending food aid could be "lethal" for ordinary North Koreans.

"As the international community responds to North Korea's nuclear test, it must distinguish between the North Korean government and ordinary citizens," said Sophie Richardson of Human Rights Watch. "Many of the tools or standard responses that the international community has to punish or discourage North Korea have very little sway over the regime, but what they mustn't do is penalise innocent civilians."

Since the 1990s famine, North Korea has been reliant on foreign donations to feed as much as a third of its population, almost all of which has been distributed through the UN World Food Programme.

But South Korea last year decided to give its donations directly to North Korea, a move attributed to Pyongyang's decision to evict all aid workers involved in humanitarian, rather than development aid.

However, Seoul suspended its aid shipments to North Korea following the July missile tests and has pledged to cut off other assistance.

Meanwhile, China, whose soaring cereal shipments to North Korea made it the world's third largest food donor, last year also sharply cut its donations to the north, according to the WFP. Pyongyang received more than 90 per cent of the 576,582 tonnes of cross-border food aid provided by China in 2005, but this year's donations are running at only a third of that level.

The WFP, which has received only 8 per cent of its budget for North Korea this year, estimates that the isolated country is now short of about 800,000 tonnes of grain, or about a sixth of the county's total annual food needs.

John Powell, deputy executive director of the WFP, last month told the Financial Times he feared this shortfall would lead to a sharp increase in chronic malnutrition among children. The rate of malnutrition among under-sevens already stands at 37 per cent, but this is well down on the 62 per cent seen in 1998 as North Korea emerged from several years of famine.

"We are at real risk of losing all the gains made in nutritional status over the last years," Mr Powell said.

Park Young-ho, a North Korea specialist at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said cutting off food aid was not an appropriate response to the nuclear test. "Even though we should consider harsher or more hardline options, we had better continue providing North Korea with food on humanitarian grounds," he said. "But this should be on condition that aid is distributed with greater transparency."

While the WFP has strict monitoring requirements to try to ensure aid reaches the most needy, South Korea has been handing its aid straight to the authorities, with few checks in place.
援助机构：勿惩罚朝鲜平民


援
助机构正敦促全球各国，不要停止对朝鲜的人道主义援助，以此作为金正日(Kim Jong-il)政权宣称进行核试验的惩罚。它们警告称，如果将食品作为一种政治工具，那么这个孤立的国家将发生大面积饥荒。

对朝救援捐赠已出现直线下降，这是地缘政治危机逐步升级的结果，今年7月发生的洪灾，令情况更加恶化。当时洪灾造成了数百人死亡，据称还糟蹋了10万吨农作物。在20世纪90年代中期朝鲜的饥荒中，有多达200万人丧生。

随着国际社会考虑如何为周一的核试验惩罚朝鲜，强硬派人士提出了一系列严厉制裁措施，包括中断食品援助。


人权观察组织(Human Rights Watch)昨日警告称，尽管朝鲜核武计划可能会对该地区造成广泛的安全威胁，但中断食品援助对于普通朝鲜人而言可能是“致命的”。

“在国际社会对朝鲜核试验作出回应的时候，必须把朝鲜政府和普通人民区别开来，”人权观察组织的索菲?理查森(Sophie Richardson)表示。“国际社会用以惩罚或阻止朝鲜的许多手段或标准反应，对该国起不到什么作用，但它们不能惩罚无辜的平民。”

自上世纪90年代饥荒以来，朝鲜一直依靠外国捐赠来养活三分之一的人口。几乎所有援助都是通过联合国世界粮食计划署(UN World Food Programme，WFP)分发的。

但去年韩国决定直接向朝鲜提供捐赠，这是因为朝鲜政府决定驱逐所有参与人道主义援助、而非发展援助的工作人员。

然而，在朝鲜7月份进行导弹试射后，韩国政府中断了向朝鲜提供的救援物资，并承诺取消其它援助。

世界粮食计划署称，中国去年也大幅减少了对朝捐助。中国对朝鲜的大量粮食援助，使中国成为全球第三大食品捐赠国。

在2005年中国提供的576582吨对外食品援助中，逾90%给了朝鲜，但今年中国的捐赠数量只有上述水平的三分之一。

世界粮食计划署估计，目前这个被孤立国家的粮食缺口约为80万吨，约占该国年度食品需求总量的六分之一。在今年对朝鲜的援助预算中，该机构只得到了其中的8%。

China's Response to North Korea Will Set Tone for Broader Talks

DANDONG, China -- This border city, which has grown to depend on North Korean trade and tourism, would be one of the first places to feel the effect of any sanctions imposed by China against its neighbor.

China's eventual response to North Korea's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device will be most significant, many analysts say, given its half-century of friendship with North Korea -- and the unmatched economic leverage it holds over its ally. China supplies North Korea with much of its food and fuel, as well as vehicles and other machinery that can't be produced by the country's crippled industrial base. Trade between China and North Korea has more than doubled over the past five years, reaching $1.58 billion in 2005, according to Chinese figures.


China has criticized the North's nuclear test and said it would support some punitive actions. If China does punish North Korea by cutting off some trade, it will have repercussions in Dandong, the main crossing along the countries' 870-mile border. Dandong, a city of 780,000, is festooned with symbols of the close bond between the two nations, including the preserved remnants of a bridge that was bombed by the U.S. in 1950 during the Korean War. A statue emblazoned "for peace" commemorates China's sending of troops to aid North Korea and to repel the advance of U.S.-led United Nations forces.

Chu Shulong, an international relations expert at Tsinghua University, said China may endorse limited economic sanctions against North Korea, while continuing humanitarian aid. That would mean stopping China's exports of oil and some commercial products, for instance, but not food shipments.

But a partial trade stoppage would likely be dismissed as inadequate by other countries. "I don't think the U.S. and Japan will be satisfied with this, but it still represents a big change for China," Mr. Chu said.

In Dandong, border traffic was suspended Tuesday for a national holiday in North Korea, but it had resumed yesterday. Trucks lined up in the morning to clear the border before rumbling across the bridge, bearing goods packed in blue containers stamped with the logo of Chinese customs. Bystanders said there were fewer trucks than usual.

An executive at a trading company in Dandong said he believes a complete halt to trade is unlikely, but his company is taking some precautions. For instance, it has asked its North Korean partners to speed up delivery and payment for deals that have already been made. "We had a meeting of our managers to discuss this. The risk is very great," the executive said.

North Korea continues to portray the international furor over its nuclear program as a dispute with the U.S. alone. "If the U.S. keeps pestering us and increases pressure, we will regard it as a declaration of war and will take a series of physical corresponding measures," North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

China has other ways to express its disapproval, whether or not it chooses to use them. Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po newspaper reported Chinese troops have been posted to the North Korean border.

Liu Jianchao, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Tuesday that the border is "normal," and there were no extra security precautions evident in Dandong yesterday. Around midday a Chinese patrol boat made its way down the Yalu River, which separates the two countries, but tourist attractions were open and sightseeing boats from the Chinese side continued to ply the water.

At times, Dandong seems like a pointed rebuke to North Korea for failing to follow China's path of opening to the outside world and embracing market economics.

China's side of the Yalu River is a wide boulevard, lined with trees and street lamps and filled with taxis racing to pick up customers emerging from bars and restaurants. After sunset, the new bridge across the river blazes with multicolored neon and roving spotlights that stab into the unbroken black of the North Korean side of the border, where no light is visible. In the daytime, hired boats take tourists from the Chinese side to gawk at North Korea's humble buildings and rusted, shabby boats.

Many North Koreans live in Dandong, and even more visit regularly for business -- allowing them to see firsthand the fruits of China's economic changes. The ambivalence of China's relationship with North Korea has only increased in recent years, when China's presence in the world expanded while North Korea remained stuck in Stalinist stasis.
中国在朝核问题上扮演关键角色

如果中国决定对闭关自守的邻国朝鲜实行制裁，以边境贸易和旅游为支柱产业的丹东将成为最先受到冲击的地区之一。

朝鲜相关报导

? 中国驻联合国大使称朝鲜必须受到惩罚
? 朝鲜核试验令中国左右为难
? 朝鲜宣布成功进行了核试验
? 中国“坚决反对”朝鲜进行核试验
朝鲜周一宣布成功进行了核试验的消息在美国、日本、韩国和中国激起了轩然大波，这些国家的外交官随即就如何对朝鲜的举动做出最适当的回应展开讨论。

美国和日本主张实施惩罚性制裁。日本于周三宣布对朝鲜追加制裁，禁止朝鲜的所有船只和商品进入日本的港口。而因为担心可能导致政权更替而迟迟不愿对朝鲜实行强硬政策的中国和韩国也对某些制裁措施采取了更为合作的态度。

众多分析人士认为，中国最终的表态最为重要，因为中国和朝鲜有着长达半个世纪的友好往来，而且中国对朝鲜经济的影响力也是其他国家难以望其项背的。朝鲜的大部分食品和燃料都靠中国供应，另外，由于国内工业基础薄弱，朝鲜的许多车辆和机械也都是由中国制造的。据中国公布的数据，截至2005年，中国和朝鲜的贸易额在此前的5年间扩大了一倍，达到15.8亿美元。

中国对朝鲜的核试验举动予以严厉斥责，中国常驻联合国大使王光亚表示，中国赞成对朝鲜实施某些惩罚性的措施。中国外交部周三表示，中国国家主席胡锦涛将派遣一名特使前往美国和俄罗斯讨论此次朝核危机。但中国外交部发言人刘建超表示，中国对朝鲜的友好政策没有改变。

如果中国决定以中断某些贸易的方式来惩戒朝鲜，丹东将不可避免地受到冲击。在中朝接壤的1,400公里边境线上，拥有78万人口的丹东是中朝贸易往来的一个重要门户，也被视作两国亲密关系的一个纽带。例如，丹东保留着一座在1950年朝鲜战争中被美军炸毁的桥梁的遗迹。此外，丹东还伫立一座名为“为了和平”的雕塑，以纪念中国派遣军队抗美援朝。

清华大学国际问题专家楚树龙表示，他认为中国将对朝鲜实施有限的经济制裁，但还会继续提供人道主义援助。这意味着中国将停止向朝鲜输送原油及一些商业用品，但不会终止提供食物。他说，一定限度的经济制裁即可表达中国对朝鲜核试验举动的不满，又表明中国不希望与朝鲜的关系全面破裂。

但在其他一些国家看来，停止部分贸易往来可能还不够。楚树龙认为，美国和日本不会仅仅满足于此，但对中国而言这已经是个巨大的转变。

如果朝鲜拒不妥协，那么一定限度的贸易制裁可能升级，但如果朝鲜决定恢复谈判，中国就可能迅速停止制裁。部分制裁比全面禁运更符合中国的策略，因为中国向来认为其主要目的是劝说朝鲜回到由中国主导的六方和谈当中来。

由于赶上朝鲜的国庆日，丹东的边贸往来周二暂停一天，周三恢复正常。当天早上，一辆辆卡车在丹东口岸排队等待过关。装在印有中国海关标志的蓝色集装箱里的货物通过检验后，运载着这些货物的车队源源向朝鲜境内驶去。据旁观者介绍，当天通关的车辆比以往要少。

丹东一家贸易公司的负责人表示，他认为全面中断与朝鲜的贸易往来不大可能，但他所在的公司仍然有些感到提心吊胆。这家公司已经要求其朝鲜合作伙伴就已达成的交易加紧交货和付款。这位负责人表示，公司的管理层已经召开了会议讨论当前的局势，大家认为目前的风险很大。他要记者不在文章中提及他的名字，以免损害他的公司与朝鲜的贸易往来。他有些不安地说，“我们已经往朝鲜运送了一批纺织品，万一边贸中断，那我们可怎么办呀？！”

在国际舆论的一片谴责声中，朝鲜继续把矛头对准美国。朝鲜中央通讯社(Korean Central News Agency)刊载朝鲜外交部的一份声明称，如果美国纠缠不休并向我们施加更大的压力，我们将视此为宣战举动，并相应采取一系列的果断措施。

中国有表达其不满情绪的其他途径，但中国用不用这些手段则是另外一回事。香港报纸《文汇报》报导说，中国军队一直驻扎在中朝边境一带。

中国外交部发言人刘建超称，中朝边境“秩序正常”。周三，丹东的安全防范措施也未有明显加强。正午时分，中国一艘巡逻艇沿着鸭绿江巡视，旅游景点照常开放、游船也在靠近中国一侧游荡。

有时候，丹东的存在看起来像是对拒绝效仿中国对外开放路线、拥抱市场经济的朝鲜一种尖锐的嘲讽。

在鸭绿江畔的中国一侧，街道两旁绿树成荫，街灯映衬着宽阔的道路。从酒吧和餐馆出来的客人招手就能打到出租车。太阳落山后，新建成的鸭绿江大桥五彩斑斓，霓虹闪烁，聚光灯的光柱划破朝鲜一侧漆黑的天空。白天，中国游客坐船来到朝鲜一侧观光，但看到的不外乎是破旧的建筑和简陋的游船。

有不少朝鲜人偷渡过境居住在丹东，还有更多的朝鲜人由于生意上的往来频繁出入中国，这让他们对中国经济改革所取得的成果有了切身感受。

近年来，中国在国际舞台上的地位蒸蒸日上，而朝鲜则犹如一潭死水，这给中国与朝鲜的关系注入了更多爱恨交织的成份。中国和韩国在1992年建立了外交关系，并一直在努力争取国际社会的尊重。中国的努力屡屡获得成功，北京赢得2008年夏季奥运会主办权就是一个明证。

Andrew Batson

中俄质疑美国制裁朝鲜草案
China urges UN caution over North Korea

China and Russia yesterday threw doubt on US hopes for a quick United Nations resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea, amid a flurry of diplomatic activity between Chinese and Russian officials.

The US circulated a tough new draft under the UN's Chapter 7 provisions and said it wanted a vote today. But China urged caution, and called for its provisions to be watered down.


ADVERTISEMENT
"The nuclear test . . . has to be fully opposed and condemned," said Wang Guangya, China's ambassador to the UN. "The response should be firm, forceful and appropriate," he said, but also "helpful for finding a solution by peaceful means".

The Security Council, he added, should take a "responsible attitude" and "create conditions for the parties once again to engage in negotiations".

China is opposing a full Chapter 7 resolution, which the US, Europe and Japan have sought. It is also resisting UN authorisation for countries to interdict North Korea shipping.

However, an adviser to President George W. Bush said yesterday the US and China agreed on the need for "strong measures".

Mr Bush met Tang Jiaxuan, Chinese state councillor, at the White House to discuss the UN resolution, J. D. Crouch, deputy national security adviser, told reporters.

Mr Tang also met Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, and Stephen Hadley, national security adviser.

Vitaly Churkin, the Russian UN ambassador, called for "a strong reaction but a cool-headed reaction. Some strong statements made by others . . . have aggravated matters. We do not want to repeat this on the level of the Security Council".

Pyongyang yesterday warned against tough unilateral sanctions imposed by Japan.

"We will take strong counter-measures," said Song Il-ho, North Korea's ambassador on diplomatic normalisation talks with Japan, in an interview with Kyodo News. "The specific contents will become clear if you keep watching. We never speak empty words."

The latest US draft would oblige all countries to prevent the direct or indirect supply of all arms, luxury goods and items that could contribute to North Korea's nuclear, ballistic missile and other weapons programmes. Governments would also have to freeze North Korean funds.

Faced with opposition from China and Russia, the US has said it could go ahead with interdictions under its proliferation security initiative even without explicit authorisation in the resolution, but that it would like Chapter 7 endorsement.

China's precise strategy is unclear. This week, Mr Wang said "punitive action" was necessary, but the Associated Press yesterday quoted Liu Jianchao, China's foreign ministry spokesman, as saying "punishment should not be the purpose" of international action.
中俄质疑美国制裁朝鲜草案

对美国希望联合国(UN)快速作出决议、对朝鲜实施制裁的做法，中国和俄罗斯昨日提出质疑。目前，中俄高层官员正在进行一连串的外交活动。

美国根据联合国宪章第七章的条款，制定并提出了一项措施严厉的新草案，并表示希望于今日投票表决。但中国极力主张谨慎行事，并呼吁削减草案的制裁力度。

朝鲜政府昨日威胁将对日本实施的严厉单边制裁采取“强硬的反击措施”，而且此前曾警告，联合国的制裁将被视为宣战。


面对中国和俄罗斯的反对，美国已表示，即便没有联合国决议的明确授权，它可能也会根据其“防扩散安全倡议”(Proliferation Security Initiative)推进制裁措施，不过美国仍希望得到宪章第七章的认可。

然而，外交重心似乎正在离开联合国。中国已派遣国务委员、前任外交部长唐家璇前往华盛顿，以助打破僵局，预计他此后还将前往莫斯科。中国驻联合国大使王光亚表示，韩国总统将访问北京。

中国的确切策略尚不明朗。王光亚本周曾表示，“惩罚行动”是必要的，但美联社(Associated Press)昨日援引中国外交部发言人刘建超的话，称惩罚不应成为国际行动的目的。

核试推动中韩与日本修好(一)
N Korean bomb brings Abe instant allies

Few people, apart from the smirking newscaster on North Korean state television, greeted with any elation this week’s announcement that Pyongyang had tested a nuclear bomb. But for Shinzo Abe, the new Japanese prime minister who is intent on piecing back together his country’s fractured relations with China and South Korea, the nuclear experiment by the hermit state could hardly have been better timed.

“If you could do anything at all to push Beijing and Seoul into the arms of Tokyo, this would be it,” says Peter Beck, north-east Asia head of the International Crisis Group, the conflict resolution organisation. One Japanese diplomat, half jokingly, called the test “a gift” from Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s dictator.


ADVERTISEMENT
Pyongyang’s claim that it had detonated a nuclear device came just as Mr Abe was making the short flight from Beijing to Seoul. Japan’s latest leader, considered a diplomatic hawk before he took office last month, had made China and South Korea the first foreign destinations of his premiership. Mr Abe’s stated aim was to put damaged relations on a “future-oriented path”.

Relations had been anything but forward-looking. Mired in bitter wartime memories and the vexed question of Yasukuni shrine

韩国：朝鲜核试带来经济风险
Seoul says nuclear test risky for the economy

South Korea's central bank said yesterday the North's nuclear test posed a new risk for the economy, warning that a tough inter-national reaction to it could exacerbate the slowdown in domestic demand.

As widely expected, the Bank of Korea left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.5 per cent as it waited to gauge the impact of Monday's test. Investor reaction has so far been muted but officials and economists have warned of knock-on problems.


ADVERTISEMENT
"The reaction of the international community, including the UN, and the North's response to this reaction, could hurt both domestic consumption and investor sentiment," governor Lee Seong-tae told reportersyesterday, after the bank's monthly monetary policy meeting.

The BoK has been aggressively increasing the cost of borrowing - there have been five rate rises in the past year - but it now has little scope to cut because this could accelerate a housing market boom.

Duncan Wooldridge of UBS - who expects rates to remain on hold for the rest of the year and then fall to4 per cent next year, with the first cut coming in the second quarter - said the BoK had yesterday more firmly acknowledged the risks to consumption.

In September, the central bank said private consumption had merely "temporarily exhibited some adjustment". The latest statement said "private consumption exhibits a slowdown in the pace of its expansion".

The government also delivered a cautionary message. "The nuclear test has not affected real economic activities so far," said Bahk Byong-won, vice-finance minister. "But its impact may be serious, depending on how the international community responds to the issue."

Kwon O-kyu, finance minister, had previously said that sanctions could drive away foreign investment, hurt domestic spending and perhaps curb export growth in the long run.

He said the government might "rebalance" its economic policies next year to cushion the impact of the nuclear test.

Even before the test, there had been concerns about the pace of the economic slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy, where growth is expected to fall from about5 per cent this year to about 4.6 per cent in 2007.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday slightly cut its growth forecastfor South Korea for next year - from 4.3 to 4.25 per cent, with downside risks - citing slowing exportsand domestic consumption growth.

"Recent signs show that the period of high growth is coming to an end," the IMF said in a report.

"The economy is slowing as the consumption recovery is maturing, while the export boom - notably in electronics - may abate as the US economy slows."
韩国：朝鲜核试带来经济风险

韩国央行(Bank of Korea)昨日表示，朝鲜核试验给该国经济带来了新的风险，同时警告称，国际社会的强硬反应可能加剧韩国内需放缓。

正如外界广泛预计的那样，韩国央行将其基准利率维持在4.5%，以便有更多时间评估朝鲜周一核试验的影响。迄今为止，投资者的反应一直较为平淡，但官员和经济学家已警告称，可能发生连带问题。

韩国央行行长李成泰(Lee Seong-tae)昨日向记者表示：“包括联合国(UN)在内的国际社会的反应，以及朝鲜对这种反应的回应，可能影响国内消费和投资者情绪。”李成泰是在央行月度货币政策会议之后向记者发表上述言论的。


韩国央行一直在积极地提高借贷成本――过去一年内已进行了5次加息――但目前没有多少下调空间，因为降息会加速房地产市场的繁荣。

瑞银集团(UBS)的Duncan Wooldridge表示，韩国央行昨日已更为明确地承认了消费方面存在的风险。他预计，今年剩余时间内韩国利率将维持现有水平，其后于明年降至4%，首次降息将出现在明年第二季度。

今年9月，韩国央行表示，私人消费只是“暂时出现了某些调整”。而最新的声明则表示“私人消费的扩张速度出现了放缓”。

韩国政府也发出了告诫信号。“到目前为止，核试验并未影响实际经济活动，”韩国财政经济部次官朴炳元(Bahk Byong-won)表示。“但其影响可能是严重的，这取决于国际社会如何对这一问题作出回应。”

此前韩国财政经济部长官权五奎(Kwon O-kyu)曾表示，制裁可能会赶走外国投资，影响国内支出，还可能抑制长期出口增长。

他表示，韩国政府可能于明年“调整”其经济政策，以化解核试验的影响。