The economic rise of China has only just begun
The economic rise of China has only just begunNapoleon was right about the hidden might of China. Yet in suggesting that the country be allowed to sleep, “for when she awakes, she will shake the world”, he could hardly have imagined what form the transformation would take.
The results are now plain: since 1979, when Deng Xiaoping unleashed capitalism on his vast but introverted nation, China has conquered the world not with its armies but with its factories. It is hard to overstate the shock and awe inspired in manufacturers by China's relentless annual economic growth of 9 per cent or more and its emergence as a great trading nation.
In 2004, the full extent of this power began to be felt. Hundreds of millions of low-paid workers and $1bn a week of foreign direct investment have swollen trade and affected global markets in oil, minerals, currencies and stocks. China has eclipsed Asia's tiger economies and depressed the price of manufactured goods, a process epitomised in the $29 DVD player sold at Wal-Mart.
China is now the world's largest consumer of oil after the US, its two-way trade exceeds $1,000bn a year and foreign exchange reserves top $514bn. Three individuals in China, nominally a Communist state, are dollar billionaires. Lenovo has bought International Business Machines' PC business for $1.75bn in the largest foreign acquisition by a Chinese technology company.
All this is history, albeit recent history. It is less clear what will happen next as Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, president and premier, try to guide the economy along a path that avoids overheating on the one hand and a traumatic slowdown on the other.
Since joining the World Trade Organisation three years ago, China has rapidly increased its share of US import markets, reaching saturation levels in sectors such as toys. There is a snowball effect: as Wal-Mart imports more from China, rival retailers race to follow suit to keep their costs in line. Europe will be next to feel the impact of China's industrial power.
Manufacturers that think they can safely leave China to dominate low-end markets while they focus on value-added products are deluding themselves. China is a nuclear power with its own defence industry and recently put its first man into space. Industry is moving rapidly up the value chain.
Because of its vast population of 1.3bn a fifth of humanity China's rapid rise is not merely admirable in the way that the development of South Korea or Singapore was in the 1970s and 1980s. For rival manufacturers struggling to adapt, the combination of speed and size is little short of terrifying. Some analysts wonder if China's unchecked growth will revive protectionism in developed countries and threaten the world trading system.
Signs of strain are already apparent on the currency front. Because the renminbi is pegged to the US dollar, Chinese exports have become still more competitive as the dollar has declined, prompting anguished calls for a stronger renminbi from Europe, the US and Japan. Beijing may soon decree a small revaluation and link the renminbi to a basket of currencies, but it must also accelerate the reform of its creaking financial sector to prepare the way for an eventual float. For China to become a real market economy, it must in the long run allow interest and exchange rates to be set by market forces.
Fortunately, China is an opportunity for its trade partners as well as a threat. In contrast to east Asia's earlier “miracles”, China is opening its domestic markets and not building an export powerhouse behind a wall of protective tariffs. In spite of the yawning US trade deficit, China's overall trade is largely in balance thanks to imports of raw materials and Asian-made components and machinery. And since more than half of China's exports to the US are produced by foreign-invested factories, the pro-China lobby in Washington has proved more than a match for the protectionists.
Market forces, furthermore, are already starting to correct the more extreme manifestations of China's competitiveness. Labour costs are rising as the Chinese grow wealthier. Chinese companies are finding profit margins impossibly thin. State price controls on inputs such as electricity and water are unsustainable. China's industrial revolution, in short, is awe-inspiring in scale but not unique in form.
中国经济崛起才刚刚开始
拿破仑说对了，中国确实有潜藏的力量。他建议让中国沉睡――“因为一旦她醒来，就将震撼世界”。但他当时可能还想象不到，这种巨变将以何种形式发生。
现在结果已经清楚了：邓小平于1979年将他巨大却闭关自守的国家向市场经济开放，自那以来，中国已征服了世界，凭借的不是军队，而是工厂。中国的经济年增长率达到惊人的9%或以上，并开始呈现贸易大国的姿态，这在制造商中引发的震惊和敬畏几乎怎么说都不过份。
2004年，人们开始全面感受到中国的威力。数以亿计的低薪工人和每周10亿美元的国外直接投资已令贸易膨胀，并影响到全球石油、矿产、货币和股票市场。中国已使亚洲四小龙经济体黯然失色，并压低了制成品价格，从摆在沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)商场中标价29美元的DVD机就可见一斑。
中国现在是全球仅次于美国的石油消费大国，年双边贸易额逾1万亿美元，外汇储备超过5140亿美元。在名义上还是社会主义国家的中国，有三个人是以美元计的亿万富翁。联想(Lenovo)已斥资17.5亿美元收购国际商业机器公司(IBM)的个人电脑业务，这是中国科技公司进行的最大一宗海外收购。
虽然上述种种是最近发生的事情，但都已经成了历史。接下来将发生什么不甚明朗，因为中国国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝试图将经济引上这样一条道路，一方面要避免经济过热，另一方面要避免因经济减速而造成伤害。
自3年前加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来，中国在美国进口市场中的份额已迅速上升，在玩具等行业已达到饱和水平。美国出现了这样一个滚雪球效应：随着沃尔玛从中国进口更多商品，竞争零售商们竞相仿效，以使自身成本与沃尔玛保持一致。欧洲将是下一个感受到中国工业力量冲击的地区。
有些制造商认为，它们能安全地让中国去支配低端市场，而它们自己则专攻高附加值产品市场，它们这是在自欺欺人。中国是个核大国，拥有自己的国防工业，且最近首次将人送入太空。中国的产业正迅速地向价值链上游移动。
由于中国庞大的13亿人口占世界总人口的五分之一，因此中国的快速崛起不光是像上世纪70和80年代韩国或新加坡的发展那样令人钦佩。那些与之竞争的制造商都在竭力适应中国的崛起，对它们来说，中国这种(崛起)速度和规模的结合简直令人惊恐。一些分析师想知道，中国不受抑制的增长是否会令发达国家的保护主义复苏，并威胁到世界贸易体系。
在货币领域已经出现紧张迹象。因为人民币与美元挂钩，所以随着美元下跌，中国出口变得更有竞争力，这促使欧洲、美国和日本痛苦地要求人民币升值。中国政府不久可能会下令让人民币小幅升值，并将人民币同一篮子货币挂钩，但政府也必须加快改革其运转不灵的金融领域，来为其最终采取浮动汇率做准备。长远来看，中国若要成为真正的市场经济体，它必须允许市场力量来决定利率和汇率。
幸运的是，中国对于其贸易伙伴来说，既是威胁也是机遇。与东亚地区早些时候的“奇迹”相反，中国正在开放其国内市场，而且不是在保护性关税壁垒后面建立一个出口强国。尽管美国贸易逆差巨大，但中国总体贸易状况基本平衡，这是由于中国进口了原材料和亚洲制造的零部件和机械。另外，在中国向美国的出口中，一半以上是由在华的外资工厂所生产的，因此在美国政府中，与贸易保护主义者相比，支持中国的游说活动占了上风。
此外，市场力量也已开始纠正中国竞争力上一些较为极端的表现。随着中国人越来越富裕，中国的劳动力成本也在上升。人们发现，中国公司的利润率低得令人难以置信。国家对电力和水等物资的价格控制不会持久。简而言之，中国的工业革命在规模上会引起恐惧，但在形式上并不是独特的。
