Maverick economist in limelight as he breaks Germany's cosy consensus
Peter Bofinger has upstaged fellow national advisers by challenging mainstream views on how to solve economic ills, reports Ralph Atkins Over lunch in a restaurant in Würzburg, southern Germany, Peter Bofinger is spotted by a passer-by and asked to sign one of his books. Earlier in the day, he had posed by a historic bridge for a television interview. Is he a footballer? Or an artist? In fact, Mr Bofinger is an economics professor at Würzburg University.
Economists in Germany generally receive a lot of attention if only because of Germans' desire to analyse their country's ills.
But Mr Bofinger, 50, is attracting particular notice because he is challenging the mainstream view that the way out of Germany's economic problems is to lower labour costs while seeking structural reform.
This week the dispute has erupted publicly among Germany's “five wise men” the official group of economic advisers to policymakers. Wolfgang Wiegard, the professor who chairs the group, said he would stand down as chairman, blaming in part the tensions within the council.
The spat has shattered the calm academic mood that usually characterises the council. Mr Bofinger, a “wise man” since March, argues that mainstream German thinking has led to a nation of consumers saving aggressively rather than spending, in fear of the future. Germany is expected to be at the bottom of the European growth league this year.
“We are now one of the most competitive countries in the world,” Mr Bofinger told the Financial Times. “The problem is that we have been very much focused on external demand . Germany is not like Ireland or Denmark. It is a country where the domestic market counts much more than the external market.”
To some observers, Mr Bofinger is simply a maverick in demanding stronger wage increases to boost internal demand a similar stance to that of Oskar Lafontaine, the leftwing finance minister who resigned in 1999.
But he is not easy to ignore. As an economic “wise man”, Mr Bofinger has additional status among German celebrity economists, helping prepare a thumping annual report on the future of the Germany economy. The recent 750-page report for 2004-05 was enlarged by several “minority opinions” penned by Mr Bofinger.
Mr Bofinger is apparently admired by Gerhard Schr?der, the German chancellor who long ago fell out with Mr Lafontaine.
Last year, the chancellor is understood to have favoured Mr Bofinger as president of the Bundesbank, the central bank, but the appointment was vetoed by Hans Eichel, finance minister.
Meanwhile ordinary Germans have yet to see the fruits of years of labour market, tax and social security reforms: figures yesterday showed unemployment still rising. “France is really lagging in reforms but its economy is doing rather well,” Mr Bofinger said. Reforms are needed, he agreed. The problem is that demand for German exports is not feeding through into higher wages and thus internal demand. “With the exception of Japan, our salaries are increasing less than in any other OECD country. Net real wages are stagnant or even declining.”
He proposes a return to a “productivity-orientated wage policy” across the eurozone. Wages, he suggests, should rise by the rate of productivity growth plus about 2 per cent the rate of inflation targeted by the European Central Bank. For less competitive eurozone members, that would still mean moderate wage rises. But Germans would be substantially better off while “improvements in competitiveness that have been made in the past few years would be maintained”.
Mr Bofinger's prominence has prompted speculation he might one day become Germany's representative on the ECB's executive board or take over from Axel Weber as Bundesbank president. In either post his forthright views might make him even more of an attraction: Mr Bofinger has also been among the most strident in calling for ECB intervention to stem the euro's rise against the dollar.
唱反调的经济学家博芬格
在德国南部维尔茨堡(Wuerzburg)一家餐馆吃午饭时，彼得?博芬格(Peter Bofinger)被一位路人认出，并被要求在他写的一本书上签名。今天早些时候，他在一座有历史意义的大桥边摆好姿势，接受一次电视采访。他是个足球运动员吗？或是个艺术家？事实上，博芬格先生是维尔茨堡大学(Wuerzburg University)的经济学教授。
德国的经济学家一般都很受关注，那只是因为德国人渴望剖析本国的弊病。
但是50岁的博芬格先生特别受瞩目，因为他正在挑战德国的主流观点。该观点称：德国经济问题的脱困之道在于降低劳动力成本，同时寻求结构性改革。
上周，在德国的“五智者”中公开爆发了一场争论。“五智者”是德国决策者经济顾问官方团体。顾问团主席沃尔夫冈?威加德(Wolfgang Wiegard)教授表示，他将辞去主席一职，并将此部分归咎于顾问团内部的紧张局面。
这场争论毁掉了顾问团往日特有的平和的学术气氛。去年3月成为“智者”之一的博芬格教授强调说，德国的主流思维已导致全国消费者因担心将来而积极储蓄、不敢消费。预计德国今年将落到欧洲国家经济增长排行榜的末尾。
“目前我们是世界上最具竞争力的国家之一，”博芬格先生对《金融时报》说，“问题在于，我们一直都非常注重外部需求。德国不像爱尔兰或者丹麦，德国的国内市场远比外部市场有价值得多。”
在一些观察家看来，博芬格先生只是个特立独行者，他主张更大幅度地提高薪水，以刺激国内需求，他和1999年辞职的左翼财政部长奥斯卡?拉方丹(Oskar Lafontaine)有相似的立场。
但他不容易被忽视。作为一位经济“智者”，博芬格先生的另一个身份是，在帮助准备德国经济前景年度报告的德国著名经济学家之一。这是一份庞大的报告。这份关于2004至2005年的最新报告长达750页，增加了由博芬格先生拟就的几个“少数派观点”，报告内容已因此得到扩充。
博芬格先生显然得到德国总理格哈德?施罗德(Gerhard Schr?der)的器重。施罗德很久前曾和拉方丹先生闹翻。
据悉，去年施罗德曾有意支持博芬格先生担任德国央行德意志联邦银行(Bundesbank)行长，但这一任命遭到了财政部长汉斯?艾歇尔(Hans Eichel)的否决。
与此同时，德国大众尚未看到多年来劳动力市场、税收和社会保障方面的改革成果：昨天公布的数据显示，德国的失业率仍在上升。“法国在改革方面确实落后，但它的经济表现却相当好，”博芬格先生说。他同意，改革是需要的。问题在于，对德国出口品的需求没有转化成更高的德国工资水平，并进而提高国内需求。“除日本外，我们的工资增幅小于任何其他经合组织(OECD)成员国的水平，实际净工资水平停滞不前，甚至还在下降。”
他建议整个欧元区恢复“以生产力为导向的工资政策”。他提出，工资的增长速度应当是，生产力增长率加上约2%的通货膨胀率。2%的通胀率是欧洲央行的目标。对于竞争力较低的欧元区成员国来说，那仍意味着温和的工资增长。但德国人经济状况将大为改善，同时“过去几年中实现的竞争力进步将得到保持。”
博芬格先生的卓著地位已经引起猜测，人们猜想他将来可能会成为德国驻欧洲央行执行委员会的代表，或者接替阿克赛尔?韦伯(Axel Weber)担任德意志联邦银行行长。无论在哪个位置上，他直率的观点可能都会让他更加引人注目：在要求欧洲央行实施干预、以遏制欧元对美元升值的人士中，博芬格先生也是呼声最高的一个。
