Success in global markets starts at home
More than other Chinese companies with international ambitions, Huawei Technologies’ success as a global company hinges on its performance at home. China, with its huge and rapidly growing economy and more than 320m mobile phone subscribers, has become an important battleground for the world’s telecommunications infrastructure suppliers.
“The success of all of us depends on China,” says Marc Rouanne, chief operating officer of Alcatel’s mobile communications business. According to Gartner, the research group, China’s telecoms equipment market should grow at a compound annual rate of 10.9 per cent between 2004 and 2008, from $29.8bn to $45bn.
At the heart of this battle is the much-anticipated launch of third-generation (3G) mobile phone services. Although China has not yet issued a 3G licence, analysts and executives expect it to next year. The construction of 3G networks will trigger demand for sophisticated telecoms equipment, both infrastructure and handsets.
China and India should be the largest of the four biggest markets for 3G, exceeding both Brazil and Russia, says Jean-Pierre Bienaimé chairman of the UMTS Forum, a London-based group that promotes 3G usage. “China should represent the first of the four to open the licensing process,” he says.
Huawei has invested heavily in 3G, earmarking more than a third of its research and development spending for the technology over the last couple of years, according to BDA China, a Beijing-based telecoms consultancy. It ranked among the top five vendors in China’s Ministry of Information Industry’s phase two test for 3G technology. But Huawei’s rivals, including Alcatel, Ericsson, Lucent, Nokia and Siemens, are spending on 3G as well, and shoring up their operations in China at the same time. Worse, being a Chinese vendor may not give Huawei an advantage, says Ross O’Brien, managing director of Intercedent Asia, a telecoms consultancy.
“At the end of the day, China’s number one priority is to buy the best stuff,” he says, pointing to decisions at China Telecom and other domestic operators as a litmus test for Huawei.
Chinese and foreign equipment suppliers are sparring in other areas already. Cisco Systems’ share of the market for routers and local area network (Lan) switches in Asia, excluding Japan, between the first quarter of 2002 and the third quarter of 2004 was 62.3 per cent, versus 6.2 per cent for Huawei, according to IDC, the research group.
In mobile handsets, Chinese suppliers are losing ground to foreign rivals. Chinese companies’ share of the local market for handsets fell from 50 per cent early in 2004 to 38 per cent by June, according to CCID Consulting, which is connected to the Chinese government. Foreign suppliers also dominate the mobile switching infrastructure market, according to data from Gartner in Beijing.
Still, Huawei and other Chinese vendors have the lead in the local optical market, particularly in synchronous digital hierarchy (SDH), a technology used to send data, Gartner estimates. They are making strides in other areas, and Tina Tian, a Gartner analyst, expects the start of 3G services will enhance their market share further.
要赢得世界 先赢得中国
和其它有着国际雄心的中国企业不同，华为技术若想成为一家成功的全球性企业，要取决于它在国内市场的表现。中国经济规模庞大且增长快速，手机用户超过了3.2亿。对于全球电信基础设施供应商来说，中国已成为一个重要战场。
“所有企业的成功都取决于中国，”阿尔卡特移动通信业务首席运营官马克?鲁昂内说。研究集团加特纳预计，2004至2008年间，中国电信设备市场的复合年增长率将达10.9%，市场规模从298亿美元增至450亿美元。
这场战役的核心，是备受期待的3G手机服务的推出。虽然中国迄今尚未颁发一张3G牌照，但分析师和企业经理们预计，明年中国将开始颁发。3G网络的建设将触发市场对尖端通信设备的需求，包括基础设施和手机。
全球通用移动通信系统论坛(UMTS Forum)主席让-皮埃尔?别奈梅(Jean-Pierre Bienaimé)表示，中国和印度将成为四大3G市场中最大的两个，超过巴西和俄罗斯。“中国应是四国之中最先开始颁发执照的国家，”他说。全球通用移动通信系统论坛总部在伦敦，是一家推广3G运用的团体。
总部在北京的电信咨询公司BDA China表示，华为已在3G方面投入巨资，在过去两年里将逾三分之一的研发支出专门用于该项技术。在中国信息产业部3G技术第二阶段测试中，华为名列五大供应商之内。但华为的竞争对手（包括阿尔卡特、爱立信、朗讯、诺基亚和西门子等）也在3G方面投资，同时正巩固它们的在华业务。电信咨询公司Intercedent Asia的董事总经理罗斯?奥布赖恩表示，更糟糕的是，中国供应商的身份也许不会让华为获得优势。
他说：“到最后，中国最先考虑的将是购买最好的设备。”他指出，对华为来说，中国电信(China Telecom)和其它国内运营商的决策将是试金石。
中外设备供应商已开始在其它领域过招。研究机构国际数据集团(IDC)称，2002年第一季度至2004年第三季度间，在不包括日本的亚洲路由器和局域网(Lan)交换机市场上，思科系统的份额为62.3%，而华为的份额是6.2%。
在手机市场，中国供应商的地盘正被外国竞争对手夺走。与中国政府有关系的赛迪顾问公司(CCID Consulting)表示，2004年年初，中国企业在本地手机市场的份额为50%，到6月份已降为38%。加特纳驻北京机构提供的数据显示，外国供应商在移动交换基础设施市场也占主导地位。
华为：来自中国的挑战者
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但加特纳估计，华为等中国供应商在本地光纤市场居于领先地位，尤其是在用于传送数据的同步数字体系(SDH)领域。这些公司正在其它领域大步迈进。而加特纳的分析师田雨预计，3G服务的启动将进一步提高它们的市场份额。
