A country in love with luxury
At the Shanghai Museum, one of China's most renowned cultural institutions, the most popular special exhibition has not been displays of ancient Chinese bronze vessels or marble statues from the Roman age - but 300 pieces of contemporary jewellery.
More than 400,000 people visited a two-month exhibition last summer sponsored by Cartier, the French luxury jeweller and watchmaker, which showcased such precious gems as the legendary diamond, Star of South Africa.
"It was not a commercial event, but our success shows that Chinese people are very excited about our jewellery. We are equally very excited about China," says Nigel Luk, Cartier's Greater China managing director.
Cartier is not alone. Since China opened its doors to luxury goods in the early 1990s, dozens of famousbrands have established a presence on the mainland, turning the country into their fiercest battleground.
Their fondness for western luxury items might be relatively recent, but Chinese customers have already become the fourth-largest consumer group in the industry, representing 12 per cent of global sales, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs, the investment bank.
China's growing importance has come amid fears that the luxury market in Japan - one of the world's biggest - has begun to mature and shrink.
Japanese customers, who currently buy 41 per cent of the world's luxury goods, have become more inclined to purchase reasonably priced products.
Goldman Sachs predicts that as the Chinese continue to shop for more Hermès scarves and Prada bags in the next decade, they will become just as important as the Japanese in terms of the luxury goods market, each accounting for about 29 per cent of global sales.
"For us, although China accounts for only a fraction of sales, it is as important as anywhere else," Mr Luk of Cartier says. He estimates that only 0.5 per cent of China's 1.3bn population now buy luxury items, but growth will be substantial in coming years.
While the Chinese may have a huge appetite for these goods, analysts say they are particularly keen on watches, men's brands and big, well-known labels - at least for the moment.
Chinese consumers are brand followers, and tend to favour highly identifiable products, such as Louis Vuitton handbags or Versace sunglasses, says Claire Kent, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, in a report.
Goldman Sachs analyst Jacques-Franck Dossin singles out Swatch, the Swiss watchmaker, and Louis Vuitton, the luxury luggage and handbag maker, as best positioned to tap the growth in Chinese demand.
Swatch, which owns Omega, Rado and Longines, is already the largest watch seller in China, where one in five luxury watches sold bears the Omega label.
With its strong brand presence, early entry into China and successful marketing campaign - Omega is the only official timekeeper for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games - Swatch is expected to remain the prime brand in China.
Despite competition, "we believe the group will be able to maintain, if not strengthen, its market share positioning," Mr Dossin says in an analysts' report.
Louis Vuitton, meanwhile, is the strongest leather goods brand in China and has seen its sales on the mainland treble over the past three years.
"Like in Tokyo or Hong Kong, girls in Shanghai begin to dream of having a Louis Vuitton handbag," says Mou Ling, fashion editor at Elle magazine in Shanghai.
But analysts say the Chinese passion for lavish watches and bags will not extend yet to branded jewellery, as male consumers are dominant in China and branded jewellery is less identifiable as an item. Besides, jewellers have to pay taxes that are as high as 35 per cent.
Cartier disagrees. The company, which opened its seventh Chinese outlet in Shanghai last month, plans to add three more this year.
"We will have 10 stores in China this year. That's the best proof of our confidence," Mr Luk says.
But he acknowledges that not all Cartier's stores are profitable at this stage and the company will not have a bigger market until what he describes as "the second generation" - people currently in high school or university - become consumers.
"There is still a price barrier but it should be gone when the Chinese market becomes more mature," he says. Mr Luk expects 10 per cent of the company's sales to come from China in seven to 10 years.
As Chinese consumers become more mature and more exposed to a wider number of brands, analysts say labels currently more popular in China than in the west, such as Pierre Cardin and Givenchy, will suffer.
Ports, the Canadian fashion retailer that is in the same league as Chanel or Gucci in China but is little known elsewhere, could be another victim.
But Alfred Chan, Ports' chief executive officer, is comfortable with the company's strategy.
"Our choice to focus on China doesn't mean that we will be less successful. We think it is better to be a leading player in one market and we are number one in China," he says.
Mr Chan estimates that Ports, which has 298 stores in China, has a 7.5 per cent share of the luxury fashion market - higher than any other brand.
However, one problem remains that is common to all luxury brands - counterfeiting. Despite recent efforts to crack down - with companies setting up special task forces, hiring undercover agents and stepping up their co-operation with local governments - some fear the market for forgeries remains out of control.
"The biggest problem in China is fake goods and it is going to be a long-lasting problem," says Michele Mak, head of China research at ABN Amro.
热衷奢侈品的国度
在中国最负盛名的文化机构之一上海博物馆，迄今为止最受欢迎的专业展览不是中国古代的青铜器，也不是罗马时代的大理石雕塑，而是300件现代珠宝饰品。
去年夏天，超过40万人参观了由法国高档珠宝和名表制造商卡地亚(Cartier)公司发起主办的这一为期2个月的展览。 这次展览展示了各种名贵宝石，其中包括具有传奇色彩的“南非之星”钻石。
“这不是一次商业活动，但我们的成功表明，中国观众对我们展出的珠宝非常感兴趣，热情很高。我们对中国也怀有同样的兴趣和热情。” 卡地亚大中华区执行董事长奈杰尔?卢克(Nigel Luk)先生说。
对中国抱有极大热情的并不只有卡地亚一家公司。自从上世纪90年代初期中国向国外开放高档奢侈消费品市场以来，进入中国大陆的著名品牌已经多达几十种。中国大陆已成为国际品牌争夺最为激烈的战场。
中国人对西方奢侈品牌的热衷或许最近才出现不久，但据高盛投资银行的估计，中国客户目前已成为全球奢侈品第四大消费群体，中国的销售量已经占到全球总量的12%。
中国市场的重要性与日俱增，同时人们开始担心，世界最大市场之一――日本市场已经饱和并开始逐渐萎缩。
目前，日本客户购买的奢侈品占全球总销量的41%，然而他们已经越来越倾向于购买价格合理的产品了。
据高盛预测，未来10年，随着中国消费者对爱马仕(Hermès)丝巾和普拉达(Prada)手袋等高档商品的购买量继续增加，中国将成为和日本同等重要的奢侈品市场。届时，中国市场的销量将占到全球总销量的29%左右，和日本持平。
“虽然目前中国市场的销量只占到我们全球销量的很小一部分，但对我们来说，中国的重要性绝不亚于世界上任何其它地区，”卡地亚公司大中华区执行董事长卢克先生说。他估计，目前中国的奢侈品消费者只占到13亿总人口的0.5%，但今后这一比例将大大增加。
中国市场对奢侈商品的胃口似乎很大，但分析人士认为，中国人特别钟情的还是名表、男士品牌和一些著名的大牌产品，至少在现阶段是这样。
摩根士丹利分析师克莱尔?肯特 (Claire Kent)在一份报告中指出，中国买家都是忠实的名牌追随者，对一些能够显示身份的产品推崇备至，比方说路易?威登(Louis Vuitton)手袋和范思哲(Versace)太阳镜。
高盛分析师雅克?弗兰克?道辛 (Jacques-Franck Dossin)认为，在需求量不断增长的中国市场中，瑞士制表商Swatch和高档箱包制造商路易?威登在众多品牌中最具开拓优势。
拥有欧米茄(Omega)、雷达(Rado)和浪琴(Longines)三个品牌的瑞士制表商Swatch已成为中国销量最大的国际手表品牌。在中国，每5只售出的名贵手表中就有1只是欧米茄。
欧米茄很早就进入中国市场，拥有强大的品牌影响力和成功的营销手段，凭借这些优势，它已成为北京2008年奥运会官方指定的唯一计时品牌，这意味着Swatch在中国有望继续成为一个顶级品牌。
尽管存在竞争，但道辛先生在一份分析报告中指出：“我们认为，Swatch集团将有能力保持（即使不是加强）其在中国市场现有的份额。”
而路易?威登则是目前中国市场最知名的皮制品品牌。过去3年中，路易?威登在中国大陆的销量增长了两倍。
“和东京或香港一样，现在上海的女孩子也开始梦想拥有路易?威登手袋，” 《瑞丽》(Elle)杂志在上海的时尚品牌编辑Mou Ling说。
但分析人士认为，中国消费者对高档手表和手提包的购买热情目前还无法扩展到名牌珠宝领域，因为目前中国的主流消费群体仍是男性，而且珠宝饰品无法很好的显示所有者的身份。此外，珠宝商还要缴纳高达35%的营业税。
卡地亚则对此不以为然。卡地亚上个月在上海开设了其在中国的第7家品牌店，而且今年还要计划在中国再开3家品牌店。
“今年我们在中国的品牌店总数将达到10家。这最有力地证明了我们的信心。”卢克先生说。
但同时卢克先生也承认，目前不是所有的卡地亚品牌店都在赢利。只有等到卢克所称的“第二代”（也就是目前的中学生或大学生）成长为消费者后，卡地亚品牌的市场才会有所扩大。
“目前仍存在价格壁垒。但中国市场更加成熟以后，这个壁垒就应当消除。”他说。卢克先生预计7到10年后，卡地亚全球销售额中将有10%来自中国。
分析人士认为，随着中国的消费者更加成熟、对更多品牌有所认识，那些目前在中国比在西方更知名的品牌，象皮尔?卡丹 (Pierre Cardin)和纪梵希(Givenchy)这类产品，它们的市场份额将会下降。
在中国，加拿大时装品牌宝姿(Ports)与香奈尔(Chanel)和古奇(Gucci)同属一个档次,但宝姿在中国以外的其他地区却没有什么知名度。这使得它可能成为下一个失利的品牌。
然而，宝姿的首席执行官陈永坚 (Alfred Chan)先生却对公司的市场战略很满意。
“我们选择主攻中国市场，并不意味着我们在未来不会像现在这样成功。我们认为，专注于一个市场，在一个市场中成为领导者，对我们更为有利，而我们确实已经做到了中国市场第一品牌。”他说。
据陈永坚先生估计，在中国拥有298家品牌店的宝姿目前已占到中国高档时装品牌市场7.5%的份额，这在中国是最高的。
然而，还有一个令所有高档品牌普遍感到头疼的问题，那就是仿冒。尽管最近各家企业纷纷采取各种措施打击假冒产品，包括成立专门的应对小组，聘请便衣侦探，以及加强与当地政府部门的合作，但有些人担心品牌仿冒现象仍没有得到有效控制。
“中国市场最大的问题就是假货，而且这个问题在短期内还难以解决，” 荷兰银行(ABN Amro)中国研究主管麦嘉慧(Michele Mak)说。
