China May Be on Course To Overtake U.S. Economy
During the 1950s, China's communist government boasted that its economy would surpass Britain's in 15 years and catch up with the U.S.'s in 30. The prediction proved disastrously wrong, as did Mao Zedong's policies, which brought the economy to ruin.
But now, a half-century later, many economists say those goals look more attainable. Having grown an estimated 9.2% last year and maintained an inflation-adjusted average annual growth rate of 8% or more for the past 25 years, China's economy seems to be on a trajectory to one day overtake the U.S.'s, which has been growing at an inflation-adjusted average annual rate of about 3% for the past 25 years.
Predicting when China will achieve economic primacy isn't an exact science; it depends heavily on assumptions about future rates of growth and currency valuations, among other factors. When economists surveyed last month by The Wall Street Journal were asked to predict when -- if ever -- this would happen, the projections varied widely. Some economists said "never" while a few didn't even bother to take a guess, but most economists said China will overtake the U.S. in the next 20 to 40 years.
"If you take a survey of all the CEOs of listed companies in America and ask them, 'What's the single factor that's going to change the world,' it's going to be China," says Donald Straszheim , an economist who specializes in China and heads Straszheim Global Advisers LLC in Los Angeles. Mr. Straszheim predicts the pivotal moment will come in 15 years.
Understanding this trend is far from academic, with an impact likely to shake up businesses and governments and today's U.S.-driven world order. Having the world's largest economy will give China a greater say in global affairs. Its currency, which is now pegged to the U.S. dollar, will join the yen and the euro as globally traded currencies and in doing so will erode the dollar's position as the world's default coin of choice. China's military, which has enjoyed double-digit budget increases for much of the past 15 years, is likely to grow larger, bolstered by the huge economy.
The Central Intelligence Agency, for one, is taking note. A research arm, the National Intelligence Council, issued a report last month likening China's emergence and its impact on the world to that of the U.S. in the last century and Germany in the 19th. The report says that by 2020 the world's geopolitical center of gravity will tilt toward Asia, especially China, the economy of which will have surpassed Japan's to become second only to that of the U.S.
Events could knock China off course. The country is beset by deep-seated problems, from shortages of energy resources and water to severe environmental degradation and an enlarging gap between the prosperous and poor that could generate widespread unrest. Some economists argue that to sustain long-term growth, market economies require political freedom -- something the communist government shows scant intention of bestowing.
The more optimistic predictions aren't based solely on simple calculations of gross domestic product but take into account other factors. Factoring in future appreciations in the Chinese currency, for example, makes the economy relatively larger. Another is purchasing-power parity, which adjusts currency conversions to measure the relative costs of goods and services. Because labor and, hence, many services are so cheap in China, relative spending power is high. Using this measure, the World Bank ranks the Chinese economy as second only to that of the U.S., while in a straight dollar conversion, China is No. 6 -- ahead of Italy and Canada.
The more bullish forecasters say the future China-oriented world already is taking shape. The country is the No. 3 trader in the world, behind the U.S and Germany but ahead of Japan. Already China is trying to leverage its roles as huge consumer market and world workshop to influence the technology standards on wireless computing and communications, much as the dominance of Microsoft Corp.'s personal-computer operating system helped it become the global standard.
Underpinning these dynamics is a unique advantage: "Size does matter," says Oded Shenkar of the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. Author of the recently published book, "The Chinese Century," Mr. Shenkar predicts China will assume the No. 1 spot within 20 years. His estimate does include adjustments for relative purchasing power and like many economists, Mr. Shenkar says government statistics underestimate the true size of the Chinese economy, by as much, he says, as a fifth.
The lure of this big market getting bigger year by year is drawing ever greater amounts of foreign investment, $60 billion last year, creating, Mr. Shenkar says, a virtuous cycle. "The additional investment is going to make the Chinese economy grow faster," Mr. Shenkar says.
Sustaining long periods of strong growth is hardly unprecedented. If China edges out the U.S. in, say 2041, as a Goldman Sachs research paper predicted in 2003, it will have done so in about 65 years. The U.S. took about 100 years to surpass Britain as the world's No. 1. Japan rose to second place from the ruins of World War II in 30 years.
China has many of the advantages that the U.S. and Japan enjoyed in their ascents. Like the U.S., it has land in abundance and a sizable domestic market, which drives internal demand. Like Japan, China has a highly educated population, an undervalued currency and access to capital and technology.
China also has a history of economic supremacy, having been the world's largest economy for much of the 700 years starting around 1000. In an echo of today's capital and technology transfers, the introduction of early-ripening rice and later of New World crops like maize and sweet potatoes created food surpluses, allowing the buildup of porcelain and silk industries that dominated global trade, says Kent Deng, an economic historian at London School of Economics. As late as 1730, historians say, the country produced a third of the world's manufactured goods. China currently dominates about 12% of world manufacturing.
Yet history provides another lesson that puts the Chinese economic leviathan in perspective. Despite its dominance, the country was quickly eclipsed by the rapidly industrializing Western European nations and the U.S., in part because it failed to develop systems of scientific research and ways to commercialize findings. Much the same criticism is leveled today at Chinese companies and government, whose research and development spending trails that in wealthier nations.
But even if China manages to maintain strong growth and rival the U.S. in economic size, its people still won't be rich. According to the Goldman Sachs research, by 2040, gross domestic product per capita in China will be about one-third that of Americans. That will somewhat mute the significance of grabbing the No. 1 spot.
中国经济超越美国只是时间问题
在上世纪50年代，中国政府夸耀说，中国经济将在15年内超过英国，在30年内赶上美国。这一预测就像毛泽东的大跃进政策一样，都未能经得起历史的检验，中国经济也因之滑到了崩溃的边缘。
然而时隔半个世纪的今天，许多经济学家却认为，中国经济赶上美国已不再是件遥不可及的事情了。中国去年的经济增长率估计达到9.2%，而过去25年中该国的年平均经济增长率是9%，因此中国经济看起来总有一天会超过美国，因为过去25年中美国经通货膨胀因素调整后的年平均经济增长率是3%左右。
无法对中国的经济规模何时跃居世界首位做出准确的预测；它在很大程度上取决于人们对中国未来的经济增长率以及汇率变动等因素作何预估。《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)上个月访问了一批经济学家，要求他们预测一下中国经济何时会赶上美国(如果真有这一天的话)，这些经济学家们作出了大相径庭的回答。一些人说这种情况“永远不会出现”，还有一些人甚至不愿费力去考虑这个问题，但多数经济学家表示，中国经济将在未来20至40年内超过美国。
唐纳德?斯特拉斯汉姆(Donald Straszheim)是一位中国经济问题专家，他是洛杉矶一家顾问公司Straszheim Global Advisers LLC的负责人。斯特拉斯汉姆说，如果你对美国所有上市公司的首席执行长进行一项调查，问他们“什么是将改变世界的单一因素”，那答案将会是中国。斯特拉斯汉姆预测说，中国经济将在15年内超过美国。
不能单从学术的角度去看待这一进程，因为中国成为世界头号经济大国不仅会产生巨大的政治和经济影响，还有可能动摇目前为美国所主导的世界秩序。成为世界最大经济体将使中国在全球事务中拥有更大发言权。而目前实行汇率与美元挂钩的人民币，将与日圆和欧元一道成为可全球交易的货币，从而进一步动摇美元的世界货币地位。由于有了巨大的经济后盾，中国的军事实力也将进一步壮大，而过去15年中的大多数年头，中国国防预算的年增长率都达到了两位数。
美国中央情报局(Central Intelligence Agency)已经对此表达了关注。其下属研究单位国家情报委员会(National Intelligence Council)在上个月发表的一份报告中称，中国的崛起及其对世界的影响堪与上个世纪的美国及19世纪的德国相提并论。这份报告说，到2020年，世界地缘政治的中心将向亚洲倾斜，特别是向中国倾斜，中国届时将超过日本，成为仅次于美国的世界第二经济大国。
当然，也有一些因素可能会断送中国这一美好前程。该国正被许多深层次的问题所困扰，能源和水资源短缺，环境严重恶化，不断加大的贫富差距有可能引发广泛的社会动荡。一些经济学家认为，要维持一个能实现长期增长的市场经济体制，就需要进行政治体制改革，而中国政府在这方面却兴趣阙如。
那些对中国经济实力作出更乐观预期的人依据的并不仅仅是国内生产总值的增长前景。比如说，如果人民币今后升值，那么中国的经济规模相应地也会进一步扩大。另一个衡量指标是购买力平价，即对各国货币间的汇率作出相应调整，以反映不同国家间商品和服务的相对成本。由于劳动力成本低廉，因此中国许多服务的成本都非常低，人们的实际购买力也就相应提高了。世界银行(World Bank)以购买力平价作为衡量标准得出的计算结果是，中国经济目前在世界上的排名已仅次于美国，但如果将中国的国内生产总值折算成美元的话，那么中国经济在世界上仅排名第六，领先于意大利和加拿大。
不管采用哪种计算模式，这些更乐观的预测者都表示，由中国主导的世界秩序已经在形成之中。中国现在已超过日本成为世界第三贸易大国，仅次于美国和德国。中国已试图利用其巨大消费市场和世界工厂的地位影响无线应用和无线通讯方面全球技术标准的制定，就像微软(Microsoft)的个人电脑操作系统由于在美国居主导地位因而成了全球标准一样。
中国在这方面有一个巨大的优势：俄亥俄州立大学(Ohio State University)Fisher学院的欧迪德?先卡(Oded Shenkar)说，这是规模效应使然。先卡在其最近出版的著作《中国世纪》中预测说，中国将在20年内成为世界第一经济大国。他是在用相对购买力因素进行调整后得出这一预测的。与许多经济学家一样，先卡也认为政府的统计数据低估了中国经济的实际规模，中国经济有可能被低估了五分之一之多。
先卡说，中国巨大的市场年复一年将更加庞大这一前景正在吸引著越来越多的外资涌入中国，去年外商对华直接投资超过了600亿美元，从而形成了一种良性循环。他说，投资增加得越多中国经济增长得就越快。
经济如此长时间地维持强劲增长还是不乏先例的。如果像高盛(Goldman Sachs)在其2003年的研究报告中预测的那样，中国经济在2039年超过美国，那么中国实现这一超越将历时约65年。美国超过英国成为世界头号经济大国花了约100年，日本从第二次世界大战的废墟中崛起为世界第二经济大国花了30年的时间。
经济学家们说，美国和日本在其经济排名上升阶段所具有的许多优势中国也都具备。像美国一样，中国也有巨大的国内市场，从而可以有效拉动内部需求；像日本一样，中国也有一支受教育程度高的劳动力大军，以及币值被低估的货币，同时还有可方便获得的资本和技术，在这方面海外投资者是主要供应方。
中国还有曾经是世界第一经济大国的历史，从公元1000年左右开始的700年中，中国一直是世界最大的经济体。伦敦经济学院(London School of Economics)的经济史专家邓刚(Kent Deng)说，就像中国今天的经济发展得益于资本和技术的转移一样，早稻的推广以及玉米和甘薯等美洲原产作物的引进帮助古代中国充分满足了食物供应需要，从而得以发展起主导了全球贸易的陶瓷和丝绸工业。历史学家们说，到1730年时，中国的制成品产量还达到世界的三分之一。中国目前在全球制造业中所占的份额约为12%。
但历史上也不乏中国经济发展的反面教训。尽管中国的经济规模曾经长期独步全球，但它还是在短时间内被迅速实现了工业化的西欧国家和美国所超过，其部分原因就在于，中国未能形成一套科学研究体系，也未找到将科学发现转化为商业成果的方法。而这些问题在当今中国的企业和政府机构仍广泛存在，中国的研发支出目前仍落后于发达国家。
即使中国的经济继续强劲增长并最终在规模上超过美国，但中国的普通百姓仍无法过上富裕的生活。高盛的研究报告显示，到2040时中国的人均国内生产总值仍然只有美国的三分之一左右。这样看来，中国届时荣登世界第一经济大国宝座的重要意义也就要多少打些折扣了。
