The Death of Rumors? Let's Hope Not
HEY, YOU, BY THE WATER COOLER! And you, IM-ing your buddies! Stop with the chit-chat! Henceforth, all of you will dispense with all kibitzing, comparing of notes and back-of-the-envelope calculations. No theories, please. No best guesses.
From now on, it's just the facts, ma'am. We say this after reading Friday that the NASD fined an analyst $75,000 for circulating "a false and sensational rumor" about a semiconductor company, and then trading profitably on the pseudo-news. Oh, my. No more trading on rumors? What's the stock market going to do?
Well, looks like we're stuck with relying on facts. And some days, a good rumor would come in handy -- some days, the facts are friendlier than others. Take last week's seesaw action in stocks. Some of the facts, alas, were less than appealing.
For instance, oil prices perked up again last week, and no one wants to see that. (OK, no one outside of Texas or Riyadh, anyway.) Meanwhile, Uncle Sam reported an absolutely breathtaking increase in the trade deficit for November, owing to the combined charms of soaring imports of oil and other goods and sliding U.S. exports to the suddenly laboring European and Asian economies. And that unhappy news sent the temporarily revived dollar sliding anew against the euro.
General Motors added to the gloomy mood Thursday afternoon with a less-than-sparkling earnings forecast: The automaker now sees profits for 2005 coming in at between $4 and $5 a share -- the Street consensus has been running at $4.91 -- down from an estimate $6 to $6.50 a share for the year just ended. GM cited trouble in Europe and weak results at its finance arm. And how about this: The Treasury Department on Thursday laid out the guidelines for U.S. companies planning to take advantage of a pending one-time offer allowing the repatriation of profits from foreign subsidiaries at a minimal 5% tax rate. And the thing is, Treasury decreed repatriated profits could be used only for investment in business expansion, and certainly not for paying dividends or buying back shares. Apparently, some investors had visions that the cash could be used for such shareholder friendly purposes. But Treasury says otherwise. And that's a fact.
But some of the news was cheerier. Retail sales for December were up 8.7% from a year earlier, the best showing in five years. Thanks to a decline in oil prices, the producer price index slid 0.7% in December, the biggest drop in two years. Industrial production for the month proved stronger than expected, and capacity utilization hit a four-year high. Meanwhile, Intel reported a blow-out quarter, softening the impact on the tech sector of a disastrously bad quarter from rival chip maker Advanced Micro Devices, which saw its shares plunge. Apple Computer wowed the crowd twice, first with some nifty new product introductions at the MacWorld trade show in San Francisco, then with a stunningly profitable fourth quarter earnings report. But Apple marched to its own iPod-supplied beat, as usual; the stock's big jump failed to ignite interest in other tech shares. (More on Apple in a bit.)
By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had slipped 46 points, 0.4%, to 10558, bringing the blue chip indicator's loss for this still-nascent year to 225 points, or 2%. (The index was down even more before popping 52 points on Friday on investor enthusiasm for the lower-than-expected producer price index.) The Nasdaq Composite, exhibiting similar behavior, fell less than a point for the week, to 2087.91, and stands 4% lower for the year. The S&P 500 likewise slipped just a tad last week, finishing at 1184.52, and now stands 2.2% lower for the year.
THE MOST OMINOUS BIT of economic news last week was the shocking trade deficit report, which showed the gap hitting a record $60.3 billion in November. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a Philadelphia-area research firm, notes that part of the huge deficit reflects a combination of higher crude prices and rising oil imports designed to rebuild inventories. Even so, Zandi characterizes the latest trade deficit figure as "unnervingly large," stemming from a "soft and weakening" global economy in late 2004.
Zandi says there were hopes that Europe, Canada and Japan would enter a period of higher consumer spending and strengthened business investment -- but none of that has materialized. His general conclusion is that "global economic growth is throttling back."
In Zandi's view, that implies further weakness in the dollar against the euro, the pound and the Canadian and Australian dollars. The key to unlocking the mess, Zandi figures, would be for China to finally accede to U.S. and European pressure and float the yuan. "It would be therapeutic for the entire global economy," he contends. And if China refuses? "Then the dollar will go down versus the other currencies, which is trouble for them and indirectly for us. The entire global economy will continue to notch down."
And as for stocks? "If growth throttles back, and the dollar weakens further, that will raise concern about earnings growth, and therefore stock prices," Zandi says. "The greatest risks are for European stocks, but the U.S. stock market would vulnerable in a weakening global economy."
STEEL STOCKS, WHICH HAD a magical year in 2004, are off to a miserable start in 2005, ranking among the new year's worst performing industry groups. Chris Olin, steel analyst at Longbow Research, a research boutique in Independence, Ohio, near Cleveland, warns that things could get uglier still.
As Olin notes, opinions on the steel sector are highly polarized. The bulls think recent price weakness in the steel market is a temporary blip in a long-term uptrend, which should continue to be driven by the soaring demand for steel in rapidly industrializing China. But Olin sees other, less helpful, forces as work.
He notes that hot-rolled steel prices peaked in August at $780 a ton, and have since dropped by $100-$150 a ton. Some of the drop, he observes, is seasonal. But Olin also notes that North American demand is weakening, due largely to a downturn in automotive production; car makers are the leading domestic steel consumers.
China, Olin says, remains the wild card in the steel industry. But he contends there are indications that demand growth there has moderated slightly -- though it continues to expand at a double-digit rate -- and that Chinese steel production is ramping up.
Olin has a Sell recommendation on almost all of the steel stocks, fearing in particular that the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings reports will "deflate a lot of the momentum" that the stocks displayed in 2004. Most vulnerable, he says, are mini-mill operators like Nucor and Steel Dynamics, which are more leveraged to spot pricing. But he's negative, as well, on the larger steel manufacturers, including USX and AK Steel. Olin puts the potential downside in the steel stocks as 10% or more.
传闻将从市场消失？
嘿，说你呢，站在饮水机边上的那个。还有你，别再用即时聊天工具散播消息了。从今天起大家都别再对著小纸条、笔记本相互交换消息、乱出主意了。别搞什么预测了，也别瞎猜了。从今天起，我们只能谈论事实。想知道为什么吗？唉，上周五，全国证券交易商协会(NASD)对一名分析师罚款7.5万美元，理由是这名分析师散播了有关一家半导体公司的耸人听闻的虚假消息，并从中获利了。我的天哪，以后是不是不能再根据传闻买卖股票了？那以后的股票市场会是什么一个样子呢？
看来，我们负有根据事实决定买、卖的责任了。有时候，传言的确很能派上用场，虽然有些时候还是事实更友好些。就从上周大盘的震荡走势来看吧。有些事实并不受人欢迎。例如，油价再次走高，没有人愿意看到这一点（当然不包括得克萨斯州和中东国家的人在内）。与此同时，美国政府公布11月份贸易逆差大幅增加，原因是原油及其他商品的进口激增，同时，对欧洲和亚洲的出口下降。贸易数据公布后，一度止跌回升的美元兑欧元汇率重新踏上了下跌之路。
上周四下午，通用汽车(General Motors)公布的不容乐观的收益预期更是加重了笼罩在市场上空的阴霾。通用汽车对2005年的收益预期为每股4美元-5美元，华尔街分析师的普遍预期为4.91美元，而其2004年全年每股收益预期是6美元-6.50美元。通用汽车将预期盈利下滑归因于欧洲业务进展不顺及财务子公司业绩不佳。另外，财政部(Treasury)上周四针对美国企业将海外子公司盈利汇回国内可享受一次性税收优惠（税率仅为5%）的问题出台了规定。这算好消息吧？不过问题是，财政部规定，汇回国内的盈利只能用于扩大业务，而不能用于派息或回购股票。这条消息对于那些曾经希望公司可以把海外盈利用于回报股东的投资者来说无疑是当头一棒。没办法，这就是事实。
但也有些消息颇让人振奋。例如，12月零售额较上年同期增长了8.7%，为5年来的最佳水平。另外，受益于油价下跌，12月生产者价格指数下跌了0.7%，为2年来的最大降幅。还有，12月的工业产值也强于预期，开工率创下4年高点。此外，英特尔(Intel)公布了强劲的季度业绩报告，在一定程度上缓和了高级微设备公司(Advanced Micro Devices)惨不忍睹的季度业绩报告给整个科技股带来的冲击。苹果电脑(Apple Computer)给大家带来了双重惊喜，第一份惊喜是该公司在其旧金山展示会上推出了一些时髦的新产品，第二份惊喜是该公司第四财政季度的盈利报告非常抢眼。但像往常一样，苹果是受益于其iPod产品的推动；因此，该股的大幅上扬并未提振科技股的整体走势也就不足为怪了。
截至上周五收盘时，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌46点，至10558点，跌幅0.4%；今年截至目前，该指数已下跌225点，跌幅2%。要不是生产者价格指数低于预期引领道琼斯指数上周五上涨了52点，该指数的跌幅会更大。那斯达克综合指数的走势和道琼斯指数相仿，上周下跌不到1点，至2087.91点，今年到目前已下跌4%。标准普尔500指数上周只是微幅下探，收于1184.52点，比今年年初时下跌了2.2%。
上周影响最恶劣的经济数据莫过于贸易数据。11月份贸易逆差扩大至603亿美元，创下历史新高。研究公司Economy.com首席经济师梅克?赞迪(Mark Zandi)指出，贸易逆差与油价上涨和原油进口增加有一定的关系。尽管如此，赞迪表示，在2004年底全球经济疲软低迷之际，11月份的贸易逆差还如此之大，简直令人感到疯狂。
赞迪表示，先前有人认为欧洲、加拿大、日本将步入消费支出和商业投资的扩张期，但现在看来这只是黄粱一梦。赞迪的结论是全球经济增长正在放缓。在赞迪看来，这意味著美元兑欧元、英镑、加元及澳元将进一步走软。赞迪认为，解决这一局面的关键在于中国屈服于美国和欧洲的压力，放开人民币汇率。赞迪称，中国放开人民币汇率将是改善全球经济形势的一剂良药。如果中国拒绝合作，那么美元兑其他货币就将继续下跌，这对于本币升值的那些国家来说不是一件好事，间接地也会给美国带来负面影响。全球经济增长将继续放缓。
对于股市来说，这意味著什么呢？如果全球经济增长放缓，并且美元汇率继续下探，上市公司盈利增长以及股价的前景将令人堪忧。风险最大的是欧洲股市，美国股市也容易受到全球经济下滑的冲击。
--2004年涨幅可观的钢铁类股在进入2005年后就尽显颓势，在各行业类股中跌幅居前。但研究公司Longbow Research的钢铁业分析师克里斯?奥林(Chris Olin)表示，钢铁类股可能还有进一步的下行空间。
奥林指出，市场对钢铁类股的前景预期存在著严重分歧。看涨人士认为钢铁市场近期的价格下滑只是大牛市行情中的一个短暂回调。快速步入工业化社会的中国对钢铁需求的强劲增长将推动钢铁价格继续攀升。但奥林表示，其他一些负面因素也不容忽视。
他指出，去年8月热轧钢价格在每吨780美元处见顶，之后每吨价格下跌了100-150美元之多。他认为价格下跌同季节性因素有一定的关系。但奥林也指出，北美的钢铁需求正在下滑，主要是因为汽车行业正处于不景气时期，而轿车制造商是钢铁消费大户。
奥林表示，与中国有关的因素仍然是钢铁行业的一个变数。但他认为，有迹象表明需求增长虽然仍达到了两位数，但已经略有放缓，而且中国自己正在提高钢铁产量。
奥林把几乎所有的钢铁类股的评级都定为卖出。他尤为担心的是，即将公布的第四财政季度业绩报告将导致钢铁类股回吐2004年的很大一部分涨幅。他认为，最易受到冲击的是Nucor和Steel Dynamics等小型钢铁企业，因为他们受现货价格的影响最大。但他对USX、AK Steel等大型钢铁制造商同样也持负面观点。奥林认为，钢铁类股可能还有10%或者更大的下跌空间。
