So Why Is Everything Up?
When British troops surrendered to the American colonial army following the Battle of Yorktown in 1781, their band is said to have played "The World Turned Upside Down." Given the paradoxes that permeate today's global financial markets, investors might want to hum a few bars.
Consider: The U.S. Federal Reserve has been steadily pushing up short-term interest rates from their four-decade lows of eight months ago, and inflation-linked bonds are outperforming conventional government securities. Meanwhile, the gap between the yields of government bonds and riskier assets -- such as investment-grade corporate bonds, high-yield bonds and emerging-market debt -- has been shrinking.
All three phenomena are consistent with signs of continued strong economic growth that has "diminished considerably the 'angst' implicit in the notion of default risk in corporate bonds," says Michael Lenhoff , chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin Securities in London.
That combination also has buoyed major European stock markets, which either have risen to their highest levels in 32 months or are flirting with those highs. Ditto for markets in Canada, Singapore and Australia, while Wall Street has recouped most of its early-year losses. Again, this can be taken as a sign that investors -- at least, those piling into the stock market -- believe that continued strong global growth translates into healthy corporate profits, which in turn spell rising share prices.
But this coin has a flip side -- one pointing to slowing growth and also possibly to benign inflation. Take 10-year U.S. and euro-zone government bond yields: Unlike short-term interest rates, they have been falling -- significantly -- while bond prices, which move inversely to yields, have rallied.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded 4.15% yesterday, down from 4.88% last June. Last week, it fell to as low as 3.98%. The yield on equivalent German government bonds, or Bunds, is 3.54%, having last week hit a record-low 3.42%. Eight months ago, they fetched more than 4.4%.
Furthermore, the steepness of the yield curve -- which is the slope formed by the yields of different maturities of Treasurys, from the shortest to longest -- has been flattening as short-term rates climb and longer-term yields decline. That, some money managers say, throws off the same message as the falling bond yields: Expect slower economic growth ahead.
And once again, there is the stock market. Analysts are predicting a manifest slowing in corporate earnings growth. Apart from energy companies, global utilities -- which constitute a classic defensive play -- are the best-performing stock sector, up 5.3% so far this year, according to Morgan Stanley Capital International.
So what explains these seemingly conflicting trends in global stock and bond markets? One place to start is at the doors of central banks in Asia and elsewhere that have accumulated huge stockpiles of foreign-currency reserves either through trade surpluses or through interventions in the currency markets to keep their own currencies weak by buying dollars. They need to put those reserves somewhere and their favorite place is large, liquid, safe markets: U.S. Treasurys. With so much demand for those Treasurys, their prices have stayed high and yields low.
"U.S. markets are probably more distorted today than at anytime in history," says David Gilmore, an economist at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Connecticut. "The accumulation of dollar reserves by foreign governments and central banks is unprecedented."
Pension funds also have been buoying the bond market as they scramble to shore up their underfunded retirement plans. Analysts at Credit Suisse First Boston estimate that proposed pension overhauls in the U.S. should markedly increase the extent of pension underfunding, which is projected at roughly $450 billion, or about �345 billion. Meanwhile, in Britain, pension plans are being pushed to balance their asset-allocation mix by investing more money in bonds and less in stocks.
"We've seen bear-market pressure on pension funds to rectify pension schemes by moving out of the risky end of market, such as stocks," says Brewin's Mr. Lenhoff. He also notes the strong demand for long-dated fixed-income securities, particularly in an environment in which the U.S. stopped auctioning 30-year Treasurys more than three years ago.
"If investors can't get 30-year bonds, they go to 10s; if they can't get 10s, they go to fives," Mr. Lenhoff says. "Demand is being increasingly concentrated in a narrower range of the yield curve." That, in turn, pushes prices up and yields down.
To Joachim Fels, chief global fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in London, the explanation for the rally in bonds, as well as in stocks and other risky assets, lies in the excess liquidity that major central banks created by keeping interest rates below the rate of inflation.
"Low interest rates also increased the net present value of pension funds' and life insurers' liabilities, which, together with regulatory changes, has further fueled their demand for long-duration bonds," he adds. So, where does it all lead from here? Mr. Lenhoff at Brewin Dolphin is optimistic. "Lower bond yields aren't indicative of a material slowdown in the economy, or a recession, or deflation, or whatever," he says. "If anything, the outlook for the corporate sector, for profits and for the equity market remains promising."
But not everyone is so sanguine. David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch in London, notes that U.S. new orders are declining at a time when inventories are high, that oil prices during the past 12 months are 40% higher than during the preceding 12 months, and that companies' ability to raise prices to compensate for higher costs is waning.
The bottom line, Mr. Bowers says, is "there are good reasons to worry that the current optimism could be short-lived."
全球金融市场传递矛盾信号
1781年，当英军在约克镇向美军投降的时候，据说英国乐队曾演奏过一只名为“颠倒的世界”(The World Turned Upside Down)的曲子。看看今日的全球金融市场，也许会让投资者不禁想到这只曲子。
想想看：美国联邦储备委员会(U.S. Federal Reserve)从8个月前开始将短期利率逐渐从40年来的低点上调，通货膨胀保值债券的表现超过了传统的国债。与此同时，国债与较高风险资产－－如投资级别的公司债券、高收益债券和新兴市场债券－－之间的息差一直在收窄。
伦敦Brewin Dolphin Securities的首席策略师迈克尔?莱赫佛(Michael Lenhoff)说，以上三种现象是与经济持续增长相符合的。因为经济的增长大大降低了人们对公司债券违约风险的担忧。
这些现象推动了欧洲股市的上扬，各市场不是创出32个月高点，就是在32个月高点附近波动。加拿大、新加坡和澳大利亚的股市也一样地上涨，华尔街也收复了今年年初时候的大部分跌幅。同样，这也许可以显示出投资者－－至少是那些涌入股市的投资者－－认为全球经济的强劲增长将给企业带来良好的业绩，随之而来即是股价的上扬。
然而，事情还有另外一面－－预示经济增长将放缓，而且可能出现轻微的通货膨胀。看看10年期美国国债和欧元区政府债券的收益率：与短期利率不同的是，这些10年期债券的收益率在大幅下降，其价格在不断上扬。
去年6月份10年期美国国债的收益率为4.88%，而本周三已经走低至4.16%；上周甚至还曾低至3.98%。类似的10年期德国国债收益率目前为3.54%，上周曾创出3.42%的新低。八个月前，它们的收益率都超过4.4%。
除此之外，收益率曲线的陡峭程度－－由不同期限国债的收益率构成的收益率曲线的倾斜程度－－一直在趋向平坦，因为短期国债收益率上扬，而长期国债收益率不断下降。有些基金经理人认为，这种现象和债券收益率下降传达出同样的信号：预计未来经济增长将放缓。
再看看股票市场。分析师预计上市公司业绩增长可能明显放缓。摩根士丹利资本国际公司(Morgan Stanley Capital International)的数据显示，除了能源公司以外，全球公用事业公司是表现最好的类股，今年迄今上涨了5.3%，它们都是典型的防御性股票。
应当怎样解释世界股市和债市出现的这些相互冲突的趋势特点呢？一个出发点是亚洲和其他地方的中央银行，它们拥有大量外汇储备，它们需要把这些储备投资到一个地方，而它们最喜欢的一个规模大、流动性好同时也较安全的市场就是：美国国债。
“美国市场可能从来没有像现在这样被扭曲过”，Foreign Exchange Analytics的经济学家大卫?吉尔默(David Gilmore)说，“外国政府和央行积攒的美元储备达到空前的规模”。
莱赫佛还指出，市场对长期固定收益证券的大量需求也是出现这种冲突现象的原因之一，尤其是美国政府三年前已经决定不再拍卖30年期国债。
“如果投资者买不到30年期债券，他们就会转向10年期债券，再不行就买5年期债券”，莱赫佛说，这样，企业未来的发展、盈利乃至整个股票市场的前景都不错。
但美林公司(Merrill Lynch)驻伦敦首席全球投资策略师大卫?鲍尔斯(David Bowers)认为，新订单数量的下降、全球油价居高不下以及竞争压力对企业提价的约束等决定了这种乐观的看法可能持续不了多久。
