Foreigners Pay to Play in China
Multinational companies are continuing their shopping spree in China for minority stakes or full ownership of Chinese businesses. But they have been paying hefty prices that, to some observers, are overly generous.
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During the past few years, businesses eager to build a presence here in sectors from beer to banking have invested in domestic companies. Such stakes can give buyers valuable distribution channels and capacity along with a savvy Chinese partner for managing local government and business relations. In fields that are hypercompetitive and close to saturation, there may be little room for newcomers to start from scratch.
But these inroads don't come cheap. "Multinationals are paying incredible premiums on their Chinese purchases," says Eduardo Morcillo , senior consultant at InterChina Consulting, which works in mergers and acquisitions. "Companies are overpaying because they think they have to get into the China market."
Desire to expand in China has spawned a slew of high-profile deals during the past year. Anheuser-Busch Cos. paid nearly $700 million for brewer Harbin Brewery Group Ltd. after a takeover battle with SABMiller PLC. Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp. spent $1.8 billion for a 19.9% stake in Bank of Communications. United Kingdom retailer Tesco PLC bought 50% of a hypermarket chain for $260 million. Japan's Asahi Breweries Ltd. and Itochu Corp. paid about $420 million for 50% of the drinks business of Tingyi Holding Co.
During the first 11 months of 2004, mergers and acquisitions totaling $27.1 billion were completed in China, according to a report by KPMG Corporate Finance and Dealogic. That figure, which includes deals between Chinese companies as well as crossborder transactions, was 12% higher than a year earlier.
"M&As in China have already become spectacular, rather than just a few accidental cases," says Wang Wei, chairman of China M&A Management Holdings Inc., a local M&A consultancy. "Why should people bother to build when they have something to buy?"
Putting a fair value on what is being bought in China is complex. Chinese executives generally don't use pricing methodologies common in developed markets and often have no realistic sense of their companies' value. And many foreign companies, desperate for a China presence, seem willing to pay excessive sums.
Mr. Morcillo says conflicts over pricing approaches have arisen in almost all of InterChina Consulting's deals. In the West, one common method is to calculate price according to a company's net present value: forecast sales and profit over a number of future years, then translate that figure into today's money. Another calls for comparing the proposed price with earnings and seeing whether that is in line with others in the industry.
Chinese companies, in contrast, focus on the value of their assets, not future profitability. "They say, 'I paid $1 million for this, so you have to pay $1 million,' " Mr. Morcillo says. "They think any forecasts are just smoke in the air."
The popularity of its Budweiser beer among Chinese prompted Anheuser-Busch to pay top dollar for a local brewery to expand in China.
The focus on assets is compounded by government rules that generally don't allow a state-owned enterprise to be sold for less than its net asset value. "Chinese companies are prone to use net asset value as a benchmark, but you're buying a company to make money, so the growth prospects should be taken as a priority," said Wang Dongmei, deputy general manager of China Securities Co.'s M&A department.
In addition, Chinese executives often value their companies based on gut instinct. In the West, brand awareness or strength of sales are factored into pricing. Mr. Morcillo says the founder of a Chinese company may say, "I put in this many hours, this is my baby, I will not sell it for less than a 10% premium."
In buying Harbin Brewery, Anheuser-Busch paid 30% more than what SABMiller offered. From late April, when the takeover battle began, and early June, when the deal closed, shares of Harbin -- then listed in Hong Kong -- surged to 51 times earnings from 28. The average global range for beverage companies is 18 to 20 times earnings, according to China Merchants Securities' statistics.
Asked whether his company overpaid for the Chinese brewer, Steve Burrows, chief executive of Anheuser-Busch International, said in an e-mail that the purchase of Harbin, the fourth-largest brewery in China and No. 1 in the country's northeast, is "strategically important and consistent with our longstanding strategy of participating in the consolidation of the Chinese beer industry."
Some observers thought British retailer Tesco overpaid for a stake in a chain of hypermarkets in China.
He said that combined with its other Chinese operations, Harbin "provides numerous opportunities for value creation in the marketplace. Investment in the Chinese brewing industry is a long-term strategy that should be judged in future potential and not current financial measures."
Tesco's purchase of a 50% stake in Ting Hsin International's Ting Cao unit, the company that owns Hymall, a chain of 25 hypermarket stores, priced that company at more than 25 times 2003 earnings. China Merchant Securities says the average for the retail sector is 20 times earnings.
Responding to a question on the pricing, Harjeet Drubra, Tesco's international corporate-affairs director, said his company believes "we paid a fair price for our entry to the market." He said that instead of considering historic earnings, Tesco prefers to look at turnover. Hymall had revenue of $613 million in 2003. "When we get into this new market, we will work closely with the existing management team to improve the business. By working with the existing team, we hope to further improve Hymall's earnings," he said.
Analysts say that while companies may overpay on paper, purchases still can be smart. When Asahi and Itochu bought their combined 50% stake in the drinks business of Tingyi, which is also a major maker of instant noodles, some analysts thought the price high as the business had sliding profits and heavy debt. But the buyers gained access to a powerful distribution network reaching 400 cities and 700 towns, according to InterChina, through which they could start pumping their own products. The investment had "real impact on the business of Asahi, so it made sense," says Mr. Morcillo.
Likewise when Carlsberg Breweries AS acquired 30% of Gansu Tianshui Benma Brewery in July, it paid $1.1 million, a 280% premium to the Chinese company's net asset value -- considered very high by industry standards. Yet China Securities' Ms. Wang says "Carlsberg could have spent more if it started a new plant in China."
In the future, some say, China's M&A market will become more rational, with premiums declining from stratospheric levels. But in the most competitive sectors where consolidation is already under way, such as food and retail, the choice for multinationals may be: Overpay, or don't play. "There are some industries where the only way to get in at this point is to buy a company," says Mr. Morcillo.
市场立足点究竟价值几何？
跨国公司继续迫不及待地涌入中国。他们不惜代价入股一些中国企业，或买下中国一些企业的全部所有权，而在一些观察人士看来，这实在是所费不訾。
过去几年中，从啤酒酿造到银行业，跨国公司几乎想要涉足中国的所有行业，为此它们纷纷投资中国国内的各类企业。这类投资既能使跨国公司在华获得分销渠道和生产能力，还能使它们获得精明的本土合作伙伴，从而得以搞定地方政府、理顺各种商业关系。在中国那些竞争白热化、几近饱和的产业，白手起家的后来者是很难获得生存空间的。
不过一些业内人士认为，跨国公司所花的代价太高了。
英特华投资咨询有限公司(InterChina Consulting)的爱德华多?莫尔西略(Eduardo Morcillo)说，跨国公司在华进行业务收购时所支付的溢价高得令人不可思议，它们之所以肯花冤枉钱，是因为觉得自己必须进入中国市场。
在中国扩展业务的这种愿望过去几年中已催生了好几桩轰动一时的巨额并购交易。安海斯公司(Anheuser-Busch)在经过一番角逐后击败了SABMiller，出资近7亿美元收购了哈尔滨啤酒集团有限公司(Harbin Brewery Group)这家地方酿酒厂。汇丰银行(Hongkong & Shanghai Banking)斥资18亿美元收购了交通银行(Bank of Communications)19.9%的股份。英国零售商Tesco花费2.6亿美元收购了一家超市连锁店50%的股份。日本的朝日啤酒公司(Asahi Breweries)和伊藤忠商事公司(Itochu)则斥资约4.2亿美元收购了康师傅控股有限公司(Tingyi Holding)旗下饮料业务50%的股权。
KPMG Corporate Finance and Dealogic发布的一份报告称，2004年的前11个月，在中国境内完成的并购交易额达271亿美元，较上年同期增加12%。这其中既包括中国公司相互间的并购交易，也包括跨国公司在华进行的并购交易。
万盟投资管理有限公司(China M&A Management Holdings Inc.)的董事长王巍说，并购业务在中国已经蔚为壮观，再不仅仅是一些零散的个案了。万盟是中国一家从事并购业务咨询的公司，它原来的服务对象主要是国内买家，但跨国公司现在也成了它稳定的客户来源。王巍说，如果人们有机会收购现成的企业，为什么还要劳神费力去自己创办呢？
要得出在中国所收购业务的合理价格可不是件容易的事。中国的企业管理人士一般不采用发达国家通用的定价方法，很多时候他们对自己的公司究竟价值几何也缺乏现实的认识。另一方面，为了在中国获得立足点，许多外国公司在华开展并购交易时也是不惜血本。
莫尔西略说，在英特华经手的并购业务中，几乎都发生过买卖双方在定价方法上的争执。欧美通用的方法是根据企业的净现值来计算收购价格，具体做法就是先对企业未来几年的销售额和利润进行预测，然后再将预测值折算成现价。另一种收购价格的计算方法则是，将收购报价与企业的利润相对比，然后看看这一比值与同行业其他收购个案的此项比值是否大体相当。
而中国公司的做法则不然，它们更看重企业的资产价值，而不是未来的盈利能力。莫尔西略说，中国的企业往往会说，我花了100万美元买下这一业务，所以你也要付给我100万美元，它们认为对未来业务的任何预测都不过是空中楼阁。
而根据中国政府的规定，国有企业一般不得以低于其资产净值的价格出售，这也加大了中国企业对资产价值的重视。华夏证券有限公司(China Securities Co.)创新业务部总经理王东梅说，中国公司倾向于将净资产值作为企业并购交易的基准价，但人们收购企业是为了赚钱，所以企业的增长前景才应是优先考虑的因素。
此外，中国的企业管理人士经常仅凭感觉就敢于在出售业务时漫天要价。而在美国和欧洲，计算企业并购价格时通常也要考虑品牌知名度和销售渠道得力与否等因素。莫尔西略称，中国企业的创办人可能会说，我为这家企业花费了许多心血，它就像我的孩子，如果赚头少于10%我是不会卖的。
在收购哈尔滨啤酒时，安海斯的出价比SABMiller高出30% 。从去年4月末收购战打响到6月初安海斯成功完成收购，哈尔滨啤酒在香港上市的股票大幅飙升，其本益比从28倍窜升至51倍。而招商证券(China Merchants Securities)的统计数据显示，全球啤酒公司的平均本益比在18至20倍之间。
当被问到安海斯收购哈尔滨啤酒是否出价过高时，安海斯公司国际业务的首席执行长兼总裁史蒂夫?巴落斯(Steve Burrows)通过电子邮件回答说，收购哈尔滨啤酒这家中国第四大、东北地区第一大啤酒企业对安海斯公司具有重要的战略意义，它符合安海斯公司参与中国啤酒业整合这一长期战略。
巴落斯说，通过与安海斯在中国的其他业务相整合，哈尔滨啤酒将为公司提供巨大的价值创造机会，投资中国啤酒行业是安海斯公司的长期战略，衡量这一战略是否成功的判断标准是未来的增长潜力，而不是当前的财务指标。
Tesco收购了顶新国际集团(Ting Hsin International)旗下子公司顶超控股(Ting Cao)50%的股份，顶超控股拥有下辖25家超市连锁店的乐购(Hymall)。Tesco给出的收购价比顶超控股2003年利润的25倍还多。曾经对全球不同行业的本益比做过调查的招商证券表示，全球零售业的平均本益比是20倍左右。
在谈到这一收购的定价问题时，Tesco负责国际事务的董事哈吉特?德鲁巴(Harjeet Drubra)说，为了进入中国市场，出这个收购价是值得的。他说，相对于以往的收益，Tesco更看重销售额。乐购2003年的收入为6.13亿美元。德鲁巴说，当Tesco进入中国这一新市场时，公司将与这里现有的管理团队紧密合作以提高经营业绩，通过与乐购现有管理团队的合作，Tesco希望能进一步提高乐购的利润。
而业内分析师人士也认为，虽然从帐面上看跨国公司在华收购业务时可能出价过高，不过某些收购交易还是很划算的。当朝日啤酒和伊藤忠商事共同收购康师傅饮料业务50%的股份时，一些分析师曾认为买方出价过高，因为这一业务不仅负债沉重而且利润也一直在下滑。但英特华却认为，这一交易为朝日啤酒和伊藤忠商事提供了一个强有力的分销网络，使其得以将销售触角延伸到中国400座城市和700个城镇，凭借这一网络两家公司可以销售它们自己的产品。莫尔西略说，这一收购已为朝日啤酒的在华业务带来了实实在在的好处，因此是值得的。
嘉士伯啤酒(Carlsberg Breweries AS)去年7月收购甘肃天水奔马啤酒有限公司(Gansu Tianshui Benma Brewery)30%股份的出价是110万美元，较所购股份的净资产值高出了280%，以业内标准衡量这一出价无疑是太高了。但华夏证券的王东梅则认为，如果嘉士伯自己在中国新建一座啤酒厂，它花的钱可能更多。
一些人认为，中国的并购市场今后将变得更加理性，收购溢价将从目前的天价水平降下来。但在食品和零售等业内整合已在进行之中的竞争性行业，跨国公司可能只有两种选择，要么以过高的出价实施收购，要么就只能置身事外了。莫尔西略说，中国一些行业目前的入门途径只有收购现有公司一条。
