Climate control in the boardrooms
Business leaders hold the key to tackling global climate change, top scientists acknowledged this week. Any attempts to stabilise the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cannot succeed without business backing.
Speaking at an international climate change conference in the UK, entitled Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Professor Stephen Schneider of Stanford University said that only businesses could change the mind of the Bush administration on strategies to deal with climate change.
“The business community is what is going to push this administration or the next one into international action, because it will make sense for them to do so,” he said.
The business community would act, he said, because of the commercial opportunities offered by adopting energy efficiency measures and investing in new, lower carbon technologies, and through fear of the commercial threats climate change poses. The insurance industry in particular has been taking the threats increasingly seriously, Prof Schneider said.
So far, the Bush administration has refused to countenance any form of mandatory limits on the emissions of greenhouse gases by business, and has rejected international calls to join the UN-brokered Kyoto protocol on climate change. But as the US is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases gases such as carbon dioxide that are created by the burning of fossil fuels and blamed for causing climate change the country's co-operation will be essential to any long-term efforts to stabilise greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thereby reduce climate change.
Prof Schneider was speaking at the international climate change conference called by Tony Blair, UK prime minister, as part of his effort to make the issue one of the top priorities for the UK's chairmanship of the Group of Eight industrialised nations this year.
At the conference, leading scientists presented strong evidence of the problems of climate change.
Research from the British Antarctic Survey showed that sections of ice in Antarctica have been melting at faster rates than had previously been predicted. This could result in rises in sea levels that would threaten shorelines around the world.
Sea level rises may also result from a phenomenon known as “thermal expansion”, by which water takes up more room as it warms up.
“This would have a very big effect,” said Jason Lowe, a climate scientist with the UK's Met Office.
Some researchers estimate that only about a quarter of the amount of global warming the world has so far experienced has fed through into the sea. This could mean sea levels rising through thermal expansion in the next century or so, even if world temperatures were to stabilise at their current levels, which itself is unlikely. A further possible consequence of global warming, discussed at the conference, could be the cooling of large sections of the world. If the Gulf Stream, the ocean current that carries vast amounts of energy around the world and has the effect of warming northern Europe, were to disappear, then much of Europe could freeze. Scientists now believe this is much more likely than previously thought.
As carbon dioxide builds up in the atmosphere, the oceans absorb some of it and become more acidic. This could have profound effects for marine life, scientists said. Coral reefs and delicate eco-systems could disappear.
Life on earth may be equally vulnerable. During previous periods of climate change many species undertook long migrations to find other places to live as their original habitats became unsuitable. But they did not have to contend with the urbanisation and agriculture that humans have since imposed on the earth. Any such widespread migrations now would be difficult. Owing to inertia in the system, any action taken to combat global warming now could take as long as 30 years to have any effect on greenhouse gas levels. This means, the scientists argued, that action must be taken at once to ward off possible threats to the planet.
Myles Allen of the University of Oxford said: “Rather than focus on targets based on how much carbon dioxide should be in the atmosphere, governments should simply give industry well-defined limits to how much carbon dioxide they are permitted to emit, and then let businesses get on with it. Because they will get on with it.”
控制气候从董事会做起
顶尖科学家们本周承认，企业领导人把握着应对全球气候变化的关键。没有企业的支持，任何想要稳定大气中温室气体含量的尝试都将是徒劳的。
在英国举行的名为“避免危险的气候变化”(Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change)的国际气候变化大会上，来自斯坦福大学的斯蒂芬?施耐德(Stephen Schneider)教授表示，只有企业才能改变布什政府在应对气候变化策略上的立场。
“企业界将是推动这届或下届美国政府投入国际行动的主导力量，因为这样做对他们将很有意义，”他说。
企业界之所以会愿意采取行动，是因为采用高能效措施和投资新型低碳技术将带来许多商机，而且他们对气候变化可能构成的商业威胁表示担忧。尤其是保险行业对于这些威胁越来越重视，施耐德教授说。
美国
迄今为止，布什政府拒绝对企业的温室气体排放施加任何形式的强制性限制，对于要求美国加入由联合国牵头的有关气候变化的《京都议定书》的国际呼声也置若罔闻。但作为全球温室气体排放量最大的国家，美国的合作对于稳定大气中温室气体、并籍此减小气候变化的长期努力将是至关重要的。二氧化碳这样的温室气体是在化石燃料燃烧的过程中产生的，被认为是造成气候变化的罪魁祸首。
施耐德教授在此次国际气候变化大会上发表了讲话。大会由英国首相托尼?布莱尔(Tony Blair)召集，他想利用今年英国的八国集团轮值主席资格，把气候变化提上最优先考虑的议事日程。
会上，知名科学家们提出了气候变化问题的有力证据。
英国南极考察处的报告显示，南极洲部分冰块的融化速度超出了原先的预测。这可能导致海平面上升，对全世界的海岸线构成威胁。
海平面上升的另一个原因可能是“热膨胀”现象。水温上升后，水占据的空间增大。
来自英国气象局的气候学家詹森?洛(Jason Lowe)说，“这会产生很大的影响。”
许多地区会变冷
一些研究人员估计，在迄今为止世界所经历的全球变暖中，只有大约四分之一的热量汇入了海洋。这可能意味着，即使全球温度稳定在目前这个水平(这本身不太可能)，在下一个世纪左右的时间内，海平面也将通过热膨胀上升。大会讨论显示，全球变暖的另一个可能产生的结果是，世界上许多地区将会变冷。墨西哥暖流携带着全球大量的热能，并能产生使北欧变暖的影响。如果它消失的话，那么欧洲的大部分地区将会结冰。现在，科学家认为，这种可能性比原先所想象的大得多。
随着大气中二氧化碳的增加，海洋吸收其中的一部分，导致酸性增加。科学家们说，这可能会对海洋生物产生深远的影响。珊瑚礁和微妙的生态系统可能消失。
陆地上的生物可能同样脆弱。在过去几次气候变化过程中，由于许多物种不适合再在原先的环境中生活，它们长途迁徙，寻找别处安家。但它们不必应对人类城市化和农业强加给地球的影响。如今这些大范围的迁徙会十分困难。由于生态系统的惯性，现在与全球变暖作斗争的任何行动可能需要30年才能对温室气体含量产生影响。科学家们认为，这意味着我们必须立即采取行动，阻挡可能对地球产生的威胁。
牛津大学的迈尔斯?艾伦(Myles Allen)说，“政府应当给予企业明确的限制，规定允许的二氧化碳排放量，而不是关注大气中应有的二氧化碳指标。然后，让企业去想办法遵循排放限制。企业会这么做的。”
