China must come clean about its energy needs
In 1915, the Austrian scientist Erwin Schr?dinger developed a thought experiment to demonstrate the incompleteness of quantum physics when it moves from explaining the subatomic world to the larger systems we can observe with our eyes. Schr?dinger proposed putting a cat inside an opaque box wired with a small, poison gas-release system. The gas-release mechanism would be triggered by the state of a particle inserted into a measuring device: a positively charged particle would result in a dead cat, say, while a negative charge would do nothing. But the state of the particle was unknown to begin with.
Schr?dinger's interest was in the moment after the particle slipped into the system but before the box was opened. At that point, no one knew if the gas had been released, meaning the cat could be described as both alive and dead. The uncertainty of a subatomic state had been translated into uncertainty in the visible world.
For the past 25 years, China's economy has practised a kind of Schr?dinger capitalism. Lack of transparency in everything from financial markets to energy use to intellectual property meant China's growth was occurring inside a black box. Investors often had to guess about the state of the economy, about what regulations they were supposed to follow, about what Beijing would do next. That kind of uncertainty seemed the perfect antidote to 50 years of destructive, ideological certainty. Starting with Deng Xiaoping's introduction of the household responsibility system in 1980, which could be likened to Schr?dinger introducing that particle, China's economy grew at an average of more than 9 per cent a year; 400m people have been lifted out of poverty. Within the often stark limits of politics, China's leaders were content to let citizens improvise ways to develop what became known as a “socialist market economy”, something that sounds to westerners like a contradiction in terms (an alive-dead cat).
Beijing's leaders, confronted with an economy that is still out of control in important respects and an uncomfortably lively debate about the future of party ideology, have begun to tire of uncertainty. As the Chinese new year begins the year of the rooster much of what is now under way can be explained as an attempt to bring clarity into the system. In early January, party leaders surprised much of the country by announcing a party education campaign to send more than 60m cadres off for self-criticism and education. At the same time, Beijing has been cracking down in parts of the country where local officials ignore edicts on economic growth. Despite orders to try to slow growth last spring, it is still common to find regional officials promising 18-20 per cent annual growth. In autumn, Beijing announced it was relocating all local statistical work to the capital, another attempt to keep local officials from delivering fast growth for friends while lying to Beijing.
Until recently, the rattles of China's opaque economy were mostly felt on the mainland and in the wallets of investors and foreign companies operating here. But the one area where the alive-dead cat has begun to squeeze global markets is in commodity prices. China plans to quadruple the size of its economy over the next 20 years. To do this it must have guaranteed access to inputs like oil and minerals. So far, commodity prices have been no object to China's leaders: without these inputs, their whole social and economic experiment would freeze. But the implications for the world are enormous. Imagine the effects of quadrupling Chinese demand for basic inputs. The economic challenge for developed nations such as the US will be tremendous. For developing countries, the effect may be disastrous, pricing them out of input markets for decades. A Schr?dinger strategy of deliberate uncertainty served China well in the past. It helped the country hold the vast contradictions of reform and development together under a coherent banner of transformation. But it is now time for the country to add transparency to its list of development virtues.
The government announced last month that it will issue an unprecedented energy planning memo this year, which will give world markets a look at China's future energy demand. It has announced plans to develop a strategic oil reserve. Now China must understand that energy and mineral diplomacy are a vital part of its future.
At the National Peoples Congress in March, China's leaders should take up a proposal that has been privately floated in many circles to create a ministry of energy. To international commodity markets, China at the moment seems like a mouth that eats but does not speak. It is making people nervous.
The year of the rooster should be known as the year when Chinastarts doing that most rooster-like thing: talking.
The writer is a consultant in China and author of The Beijing Consensus, an analysis of China's economy published by the Foreign Policy Centre in London
中国能源需求应透明
1915年,奥地利科学家欧文?薛定谔(Erwin Schrodinger)设计出一项假设式的理论实验，在该实验中，当人们跳出亚原子世界，进而解释人类肉眼可看见的更大物质系统时，它显示出了量子物理学的不完备之处。
薛定谔的实验设想是，将猫放到一个不透明的盒子中，盒子上连接一套小型毒气排放系统。该毒气排放系统的启动由一颗内置于某一测量装置的粒子控制。譬如说我们规定，粒子如果带正电，则启动该毒气系统使猫死亡；如果带负电，猫就安然无恙。但是在开始时，我们并不知道该粒子的状态。
薛定谔感兴趣的是从粒子滑入系统后到盒子打开前的这段时间。在这段时间里，没人知道毒气是否排放，这意味着，我们既可将猫的状态描述为仍然存活，也可描述为已经死亡。这种亚原子状态的不确定性，已经转化为可见世界的不确定性。
在过去的25年中，中国经济的发展轨迹堪称薛定谔式的资本主义。从金融市场、能源利用到知识产权，一切都缺乏透明度，这意味着中国的经济增长一直都是暗箱操作。投资者常常只能对经济状况进行猜测，猜想他们所应遵循的监管法规，猜想中国政府下一步举措。对过去这50年来一成不变的僵化意识形态而言，这种不确定性堪称再好不过的矫正器。自上世纪80年代，邓小平实施家庭联产承包责任制以来(这可比作薛定谔引入的那颗粒子)，中国经济的年均增长速度已超过9%，4亿人口已经脱贫。在严格恪守政治底线的前提下，中国领导人希望看到普通民众应不同时代背景的情况，尽自己所能发展所谓的 “社会主义市场经济”。在西方人看来，“社会主义市场经济”一词是一种自相矛盾的说法(那只生死不明的猫)。
目前，中国政府对经济发展的一些重要方面仍无法完全驾驭；此外，对意识形态的也存在种种争论和怀疑，这是中央领导人不愿看到的。中国的领导人不希望让这种不确定继续下去。农历鸡年伊始，中国政府就采取了多项措施，从中可以看出它在努力为经济体制增加透明度。1月初，党中央高层宣布在全国6000万干部中开展一项干部自我批评和教育活动，这实在有点出人意料。中国政府也对国内一些地区官员无视经济发展规定的行为予以打击。虽然去年春季以来，中国政府已经发布规定，试图降低经济增长速度，但地方官员许诺实现18%至20%年增长速度的现象仍很普遍。去年秋季，中国政府宣布将各地统计工作全部收归中央。这一举措再次表明，中国政府试图杜绝地方官员一边对发展商们透露高速增长的消息，一边对中央瞒报虚报的现象。
直到最近，对中国经济透明度不高的种种批评声，才开始普遍出现在大陆地区，投资者和外国在华企业的钱包也受到了这种不透明的影响。然而，这只生死不明的猫（指中国经济）已经在挤压全球市场，这体现在其大宗商品的价格方面。中国计划在未来20年实现经济总量翻两番，为实现这一目标，中国必须确保石油和矿石等原料的进口渠道。然而，直到目前，大宗商品价格尚未成为中国领导人探讨的议题：没有这些原料输入，中国的整个社会和经济转型实验都将被迫中止，这对世界的影响将是巨大的。想象一下，中国未来对基础原料的需求将是现在的4倍！将在经济上对美国等发达国家构成巨大挑战。而对发展中国家而言，这种影响则将是灾难性的：中国需求剧增所导致的原材料价格上涨，将使他们在未来几十年出现买不起基础产品的状况。过去，中国采取的是薛定谔式的、有意为之的不确定策略。这种策略很奏效，使中国能够将改革和发展中出现的大量矛盾现象统一归结为转型现象。然而，现在是中国展示它发展成就的时候了。
上个月中国政府宣布，将于今年公布一项能源规划。这个空前的举动将使世界市场了解中国未来的能源需求。中国政府已经宣布相关计划，决定增加战略石油储备。现在，中国必须认识到，能源和矿石的外交政策对其未来将起到至关重要的作用。
在将于今年3月举行的全国人民代表大会上，中国领导人应该会向人大提请成立能源部的建议，私下里这一说法已经在各界广为流传。对国际大宗商品市场而言，现在的中国犹如正张开巨口，只顾着吃东西却不说话。这使人们感到紧张。
鸡年应该是中国开始说话的一年，这正符合鸡的特征。
本文作者是美国高盛公司中国顾问。他是伦敦“外交政策中心”出版的中国经济分析类刊物《北京共识》(Beijing Consensus)的作者。
