香港将迎来新任特首曾荫权

Tsang Wends to the Top in Hong Kong

After several years of political and economic turmoil, China's richest city is about to get a new leader. He is Donald Tsang , a Chinese citizen with a British knighthood, a conscientious and skilled bureaucrat with a deeply ingrained habit of deferring to his bosses, and a man whose career many predicted would end eight years ago when Hong Kong was returned to Chinese rule.

In his new role as chief executive, Mr. Tsang, currently Hong Kong's chief secretary, will face challenges steering the city through problems such as dwindling fiscal reserves, still-high unemployment rates and increasing economic competition from mainland China. He will need to manage the difficult task of pleasing Beijing while at the same time cultivating the support of an increasingly politicized city willing to take their dissatisfaction to the streets.


It is a job that in the end overwhelmed Tung Chee Hwa, the first leader chosen by China to run Hong Kong. Mr. Tung is expected to formally announce today that he is stepping down as chief executive two years ahead of schedule, according to people close to the matter, spelling the end of almost eight years in office marked by a series of policy blunders that led to some of the city's largest-ever street protests and unprecedented public criticism from China's leaders.

Under Hong Kong law, Mr. Tung's departure makes his deputy, Mr. Tsang, Hong Kong's chief executive for up to six months. Mr. Tsang is also slated to serve as leader for at least an additional two years under Beijing's close scrutiny, say people familiar with the matter.

Even before he formally takes office, Mr. Tsang is coming under fire from critics who say he will be too deferential to the wishes of Beijing, a criticism often directed at Mr. Tung.

"Donald is very efficient, but he will be a 101% yes man to Beijing," said leading Democrat Martin Lee who, despite his differing political views with Mr. Tsang, is a family friend and godfather to one of Mr. Tsang's sons.

David Akers-Jones, Mr. Tsang's former supervisor, praised Mr. Tsang's administrative abilities but expressed reservations about Mr. Tsang's effectiveness as chief executive, because the job entails a very different set of skills when "you are not giving advice to the boss, you are the boss."

Mr. Tsang has proved critics wrong throughout a long and distinguished career. Many had predicted his political career would wane after the 1997 return of the British colony to Chinese sovereignty, because the bureaucrat was viewed as too pro-Western to please mainland authorities. The fact that Mr. Tsang accepted a British knighthood that year -- a move that was bound to annoy Beijing -- might have indicated that he himself thought his career had peaked, said City University political analyst Anthony Cheung.

But Mr. Tsang continued his role as financial secretary under the Tung administration, winning kudos for fending off currency speculators during the Asian financial crisis. During that period, he kept a statue on his desk of a knight slaying a crocodile-like creature that Mr. Tsang dubbed "Soros," after financier George Soros, whom he blamed for the city's economic woes, according to friends as well as a journalist who interviewed him then.

Bumps in Career Path

In 2001, he was promoted to chief secretary, the second-highest rank in Hong Kong's administration. A year later, critics again were predicting Mr. Tsang was pushed to the sidelines after Mr. Tung dismantled the city's bureaucratic structure and replaced it with a ministerial system where most of the city's top positions were filled by his appointees instead of career civil servants.

At that time, Mr. Tung had brought in former banker Antony Leung as finance secretary, leading many political watchers to speculate that Mr. Leung and not Mr. Tsang was being groomed as Hong Kong's next chief executive.

Though Mr. Leung resigned in 2003 amid public outcry over purchasing an expensive auto right before the government substantially raised taxes, it was far from certain that Mr. Tsang -- though still a contender -- would be the next chief executive, because he was given either unpopular or insignificant tasks as chief secretary, political analysts said.

At the height of the 2003 Asia-wide outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, Mr. Tsang had asked Mr. Tung to put him in charge of coordinating the city's response to the public-health disaster, but his request was ignored, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Instead, he was put in charge of a team entrusted with duties such as making sure faulty pipes in city buildings, which health authorities suspected played a role in the spread of SARS in Hong Kong's crowded housing estates, were repaired and litterbugs punished.

Pictures of the dapper Mr. Tsang -- who collects Rolex watches and is famous for his extensive collection of bow ties -- wielding a broom through the streets during the SARS epidemic invited public derision and suggested his chances of being Hong Kong's next leader were fast fading, said political analyst Michael DeGolyer.

But the lack of strong contenders, coupled with Mr. Tung's earlier-than-expected departure, vaulted Mr. Tsang to the top spot. Though he is expected to serve a two-year term instead of the standard five-year term, which would effectively place him on probation with Beijing, he will still have advantage over possible rivals as the incumbent chief executive. These include Finance Secretary Henry Tang, Education Secretary Arthur Li, and James Tien, head of the city's pro-business Liberal Party, all of whom are members of Hong Kong's richest families, unlike Mr. Tsang, who came from humbler stock.

The eldest son of a policeman, Mr. Tsang was educated by Jesuit priests at Wah Yan College, a middle school, paying for his education by tutoring at night. Friends describe Mr. Tsang's father as strict and heavy-handed, giving Mr. Tsang a lifelong desire to please authority figures and spurring him and his five siblings to high achievements. Mr. Tsang's brother is former Police Commissioner Tsang Yam-Pui, while sister Katherine is head of Standard Chartered Bank's China operations.

Clever and hard-working, Mr. Tsang rose through civil-service ranks rapidly despite having no university degree, a major handicap in the British colony's civil service. In 1981, the Hong Kong government sent him to Harvard University in Boston for a one-year master's in public administration degree where, with typical zeal, he scored straight As and socialized little.

Kept Eye on Top Post

His Harvard training came to good use when he was a district officer in Hong Kong's leased New Territories on the Chinese mainland, as he applied management principles to a controversial and complex resettlement policy, said Sir Akers-Jones.

Even then, his ambition was clear. During a luncheon, Mr. Tsang announced to startled attendees that "some day I'm going to be governor of Hong Kong," according to a person familiar with the matter.

In 1989, Mr. Tsang went out on a political limb by persuading then-Hong Kong governor David Wilson to issue a strongly worded statement condemning the Tiananmen Square massacres, said a former senior civil servant. Mr. Tsang then worked hard to get Britain to relax its tough nationality laws for Hong Kong, crafting a plan that enabled about 100,000 of the city's people to emigrate to the U.K. That earned him much popularity and the nickname "Mr. Passports."

Now, political watchers say his effectiveness as chief executive will be hampered because he, like Mr. Tung before him, will rule without popular mandate. Unlike Mr. Tung, he will also have to work to overcome Beijing's distrust of his Western affiliations, which will likely mean he will take a hard-line stance on the city's democratic aspirations, the city's opposition politicians say.

"Expect a benevolent dictatorship," said legislator and longtime friend Albert Cheng.

Mr. Tsang himself seems aware of the vicissitudes of higher office. In 1993, he denied speculation that he was looking to represent Hong Kong in Beijing after 1997, saying, "In this job you never 'settle' anything," adding, "If you are lucky, all you can do is put it off for a time until the next wave hits."
香港将迎来新任特首曾荫权

在经历了多年的政治和经济动荡之后，香港这个中国最富裕的城市即将迎来新的领导人。他就是曾荫权(Donald Tsang)，一位拥有英国骑士爵位的中国公民，一位尽职尽责，从内心尊重上级的官员。许多人曾预计他的职业生涯从8年前香港回归中国后就会宣告结束。

曾荫权目前担任香港政务司司长。作为新一任行政长官，他将面临诸多挑战，如财政储备减少、失业率仍居高不下和来自中国大陆的经济竞争等问题。他既需要应对取悦北京的困难局面，同时还要获得香港这个动辄走向街头发泄不满的城市的支持。

正是这个职位使中国政府选择的第一任行政长官董建华饱受非议。知情人士透露，预计今天董建华将正式宣布他将提前两年卸任行政长官一职，从而宣告近8年政治生涯的结束。在他执政期间，一系列的政策问题导致香港爆发了有史以来规模最大的街头示威，也招致中国领导人前所未有的公开批评。

根据香港法律，董建华离职后，其副职曾荫权将暂任香港行政长官至多6个月。知情人士透露，根据北京的仔细斟酌，曾荫权还将在这个职位上服务至少两年。

还没正式上任前，曾荫权就受到了不少批评，称他将对北京过于恭顺，这个词过去经常被用来批评董建华。

曾荫权的前领导钟逸杰(David Akers-Jones)欣赏其行政管理能力，但对曾荫权作为行政长官的效果持保留态度，因为这项工作要求有截然不同的一套技巧，不是给领导提建议，而是本身就是领导。

曾荫权此前就凭借长期卓著的表现证明那些批评都是错误的。许多人曾预计在香港1997年回归中国后，曾荫权的政治生涯将走下坡路，因为他被视为过于亲近西方，而无法令中国政府满意。香港城市大学(City University)政治分析师张炳良(Anthony Cheung)说，曾荫权当年接受英国骑士爵位的事实表明，他自己可能也认为他的政治生涯走到了顶点。

但曾荫权继续在董建华的政府中担任财政司司长，因在亚洲金融危机期间击退外汇投机者而赢得美誉。据朋友和采访过他的记者称，当时，他在办公桌上放了一个武士杀死类似鳄鱼的动物的雕像，他称鳄鱼为“索罗斯”。他认为金融家乔治?索罗斯(George Soros)是香港经济动荡的罪魁祸首。

2001年，曾荫权被提升为政务司司长，职务仅次于行政长官。1年后，在董建华改革香港官员体制，用高官问责制取代原来的公务员制度后，批评人士再度预计曾荫权将失去权力。

当时，董建华任命前银行家梁锦松(Antony Leung)担任财政司司长，令许多政治观察家猜测，梁锦松，而不是曾荫权将成为香港下一任行政长官。

由于公众对梁锦松在政府即将大幅上调购车税之前购买豪华轿车深感不满，他在2003年引咎辞职。但尽管如此，政治分析师称，曾荫权虽然被看作竞争者之一，却离行政长官一职还有相当距离，因为他担任的是既不非常重要，也难以抛头露面的政务司司长。

知情人士称，2003年亚洲爆发非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情时，曾荫权曾要求董建华安排他负责协调香港对SARS的应对，但这一要求没有引起重视。

相反，他被安排负责一个小组，检查和处理城市建筑中的排污管道和卫生问题。卫生部门怀疑排污管道有问题,是香港SARS的扩散因素之一。

政治分析师戴高礼(Michael DeGolyer)说，衣冠楚楚的曾荫权SARS期间在街头挥舞扫帚的照片引起了公众的嘲笑，显示他成为香港下一届领导人的希望再度渺茫。

但缺乏强劲的竞争对手，加之董建华提前离任，再次将曾荫权推到了前台。尽管预计他将任职两年（标准任期是五年），北京政府难以进行有效考察，但他仍将比其他可能的对手具有优势。这些竞争对手包括财政司司长唐英年(Henry Tang)、教育统筹局局长李国章(Arthur Li)、自由党负责人田北俊(James Tien)，这些人全都来自香港最富裕的家庭，不像曾荫权来自平民阶层。

曾荫权是一位警察的长子，在教会学校华仁书院(Wah Yan College)完成了中学教育。朋友们描述曾荫权的父亲非常严格和严厉，这让他养成了取悦权威人物的心理，也激励他和他的5个兄弟姐妹取得更高成就。曾荫权的弟弟曾荫培是前香港警务处处长，妹妹曾璇(Katherine Tsang)是渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)中国区总裁。

尽管没有大学文凭，但聪明刻苦的曾荫权在公务员队伍中却快速升迁。1981年，香港政府送他到哈佛大学学习一年，攻读公共管理硕士学位，他在那里非常刻苦，很少参加社交活动，所有课程的成绩都是A。

钟逸杰说，曾荫权在哈佛大学学习的经历对他此后担任政务专员起到了积极作用，他将学到的管理原理应用到纷繁复杂的重新安置政策中。

当时他就表现得雄心勃勃。知情人士称，他曾在一个午餐会上说：“总有一天我要成为香港总督”，令在场众人大惊失色。

曾荫权曾努力促使英国当局放宽在香港执行的严格的国籍法，并制定措施使大约10万港人移民英国。这也使他广受欢迎，赢得了“护照先生”的绰号。

现在，政治观察家说，曾荫权作为行政长官的施展空间将受到牵制，因为同前任董建华一样，他也没有获得民众的授权。香港的反对派政治家称，与董建华的不同之处在于，他还需要打消北京对他同西方亲密关系的疑虑，这可能意味著他会对香港的民主活动采取强硬立场。

曾荫权多年来的朋友、立法会议员郑经翰(Albert Cheng)说，希望带来的是仁政。

香港特区行政长官董建华证实辞职
Hong Kong's Tung Resigns After Eight Turbulent Years

Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa said yesterday he tendered his resignation to Beijing on grounds of exhaustion and poor health, after more than a week of speculation that Chinese authorities were pressuring him to leave two years before the end of his term.

During the tenure of Mr. Tung, who was in his second five-year term, the city weathered the Asian financial crisis, a deadly outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and a transition to a service from a manufacturing economy.

Even Mr. Tung's fiercest critics acknowledged the difficulty of his task in negotiating the minefield between the often-opposing interests of Hong Kong residents and Beijing. Supporters praised his diligence in fostering ties between Hong Kong and mainland China, leaving behind a city that has regained its economic footing after three recessions and retained its reputation as one of the world's freest economies.


In his farewell speech, Mr. Tung said, "I believe Hong Kong today is in a pretty good position," and that after eight years of challenges the city was "equipped to sail into the future." Mr. Tung is expected to be sworn in tomorrow as a vice chairman of China's top advisory body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, on Saturday, a position normally accorded to senior retired officials. Beijing is expected to formally announce his resignation as chief executive after that.

After several years of stagnant growth, Hong Kong's economy has rebounded, expanding 8.1% last year, fueled by an increase in tourists from the mainland, increased domestic spending and a property-market revival.

Nonetheless, analysts say the Tung administration's failure to effectively handle crises such as SARS galvanized Hong Kong's public to demand more say in choosing their leaders. That resulted in perhaps one of Mr. Tung's most enduring legacies: a population more vocal in civil-rights demands and a greater tendency by Beijing to intervene in the city's affairs, despite a promise to allow the city a high degree of autonomy following the former British colony's return to Chinese rule in 1997.

Chinese authorities intervened in the city's affairs in May by ruling the city couldn't hold direct elections to pick its leader or its lawmakers in the next round of voting. The decision sparked one of Hong Kong's largest-ever street protests. Now, Beijing is expected to decide that, following a temporary replacement for as much as six months, Mr. Tung's successor will serve a two-year term instead of the five years set by the city's laws. Hong Kong's opposition politicians said they might challenge such a decision. Mr. Tung's successor will be elected by committee.

Beijing's participation in Hong Kong's administration might increase, given that Hong Kong's second-in-command, Donald Tsang , who will serve as acting chief executive for as long as six months, doesn't enjoy Beijing's trust to the degree Mr. Tung did when he assumed office, experts say. Mr. Tsang had a long career in the British colonial service, holds a British knighthood and is a Roman Catholic -- all counted as demerits in Beijing's eyes, they said.


"China pretty much trusted Tung to run the place in the first few years, until he got into trouble," said political-science professor Anthony Cheung. "Donald will have a shorter leash," he said.

In the news conference where he announced his retirement, Mr. Tung pleaded exhaustion and poor health stemming from stress and 16-18 hour work days, which led him to take painkillers before his January policy speech.

Mr. Tung's strong work ethic had earned him the nickname "Mr. 7-11." He rarely took holidays and at the time of his resignation, he had more than a year's worth of cumulative leave.

Despite his hard work, analysts said Mr. Tung, who comes from a wealthy shipping family, was unable to endear himself to the Hong Kong public. Described by former aides and friends as amiable and kind, his public persona was that of an aloof leader who often seemed out of touch with the concerns of the general public. It didn't help that he shunned the media and gave few interviews.

A former senior civil servant described how during a 1998 outbreak of red tide -- an algal bloom in the sea around Hong Kong that killed thousands of fish -- Mr. Tung ventured out to speak with local fishermen dressed in a blue blazer and white trousers, the yachting gear of the wealthy. "He came across as a different being who couldn't possibly understand their problems," the person said.

Mr. Tung remade his government in 2002, filling the cabinet with his own appointees, replacing career civil servants. Mr. Tung said this would create a more-accountable government, but instead it fostered factional infighting and weakened the administration, said people familiar with the matter.

Baptist University governmental-studies professor Michael DeGolyer said Mr. Tung turned Hong Kong into "a kind of Chinese family firm," with "squabbling relations struggling for power."

In 2003, Mr. Tung's revamped administration was ill-equipped to deal with the powder-keg combination of record-high unemployment, a proposed strict antisubversion bill and the SARS epidemic, all of which led to an unprecedented half a million people demonstrating on the streets on July 1, the sixth anniversary of the city's return to Chinese rule.

Posters of a cream pie being smashed across Mr. Tung's face became one of the defining symbols of the protest march. Many analysts saw this as the lowest point of Mr. Tung's career and the beginning of Beijing's overt intervention in Hong Kong's affairs. The demonstration also effectively ended the careers of three of his trusted lieutenants, including Financial Secretary Antony Leung, whom many had thought was being groomed as Mr. Tung's successor.

Mr. Tung has said he won't be working in private enterprises when he retires, ending speculation that he might rejoin his family shipping firm, Orient Overseas Container Line Ltd., or OOCL.

During the mid-1980s, OOCL, with Mr. Tung at the helm, received one of the world's largest corporate bailouts after a slowdown in world trade put it in danger of defaulting on about $3 billion in loans. China was behind a $120 million loan that saved the firm, and Mr. Tung was thereafter dogged with suspicions that his first loyalties were to China, not Hong Kong.

China Gambles in Hong Kong

The man China picked to run Hong Kong when it took over the former British colony in 1997 is stepping down -- and that may be to China's credit.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa will resign soon, said politicians in Hong Kong and a person in Beijing knowledgable about the plans. Mr. Tung, who flew to Beijing yesterday for the annual meeting of a top government advisory body, side-stepped reporters' questions about his fate, saying only that an announcement would come at an appropriate time.

The departure of Mr. Tung, whose unpopular rule in Hong Kong led to massive street protests in recent years, represents a surprising gamble for China's usually risk-averse leadership. Allowing him to resign early appears to signal a desire for accountable leadership even as China seeks to fend off demands for deeper democratic changes in the city.

It also shows a rare willingness on the part of China's government to tacitly admit failure, say Hong Kong politicians and Chinese analysts, and marks a move toward a more pragmatic and responsive form of governance than China traditionally has offered. The denouement is expected in a few days, when Mr. Tung, as expected, is made vice chairman of the largely powerless Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

Letting Mr. Tung go -- and an unusual criticism of his governance by Chinese President Hu Jintao in December -- marks a departure from the usual arms-length manner in which Beijing handles the partially self-governing city and capitalist financial center that China recovered from Britain nearly eight years ago. But it conforms to a major shift that Mr. Hu's administration is trying to engineer in the way rapidly changing China is governed as a whole.

"This is in line with China's increasingly pragmatic and proactive style of leadership," says Ma Ngok, a political scientist at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Since assuming power in China two years ago, Mr. Hu has struck a note of populism, promising to bring accountability and responsiveness to an authoritarian officialdom whose frequent negligence and ineptitude has battered public confidence. To do this, the Hu leadership has taken what for China is the rare step of ousting officials from office for poor performance.

During the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, China cashiered several top officials, including the mayor of Beijing and the country's health minister, for failing to respond adequately and covering up the disease. Just last month, the cabinet removed the deputy governor of a major industrial province following an explosion in a state-run coal mine that killed 214. Mr. Hu also has ordered all 68 million Communist Party members to attend seminars designed to make them more responsive to public demands.

Still, the premature departure of Mr. Tung -- who had been highly unpopular with a Hong Kong public increasingly hungry for greater political freedoms -- risks inciting fresh demands for democratic change not just from Hong Kong but from fast-developing cities in China. "There is the risk that other Chinese cities will look to Hong Kong and think, 'OK, mass protests can remove state-appointed leaders,' " says Joseph Cheng , political science professor at Hong Kong's City University.

Mr. Tung, a sober-mannered former shipping magnate with no political experience before he became chief executive in 1997, has presided over a series of policy blunders that at one point brought half a million protesters onto Hong Kong streets and strained Beijing's patience. After his most recent gaffes -- a series of botched property-development deals -- Mr. Tung drew unusual public criticism from Mr. Hu, who in December urged Mr. Tung to assess his inadequacies and improve his governance.

Nevertheless, many had expected Beijing to allow him to limp through the remainder of his second term, due to end in 2007, rather than to risk a messy separation and implications of Beijing's fallibility in picking the wrong man for the job. It remains unclear whether Mr. Tung asked to resign or whether Chinese leaders pushed him to.

By law, Mr. Tung's post will be filled temporarily by his second-in-command, Hong Kong's popular Chief Secretary Donald Tsang, who is credited with helping oversee the relatively smooth transition of the civil service from British to Chinese rule and won plaudits for intervening to support the Hong Kong dollar -- which is pegged to the U.S. dollar -- during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Mr. Tsang is "more knowledgeable, he's neither rich nor poor, he's more in touch with ordinary people," says Edmund Lo, a former branch bank manager turned cabby who partly blames his fall in fortunes on one of Mr. Tung's early initiatives to build more apartments, creating a housing oversupply right before the Asian financial crisis hit and the market collapsed.

Mr. Tung's departure might enable Beijing to appear responsive to popular discontent. But China's leaders remain in firm control of Hong Kong's politics and the choice of its next leader. If Mr. Tung departs before July, his successor is likely to be picked by the same 800-member committee that elected Mr. Tung for a second term at Beijing's behest.

By law, Hong Kong will have to elect Mr. Tung's successor within six months of his departure, which could mean Hong Kong's next chief executive will be in office until 2010, putting off for three years the thorny question of political change in methods for selecting the chief executive. Pro-democratic factions in Hong Kong had been pushing for direct election of the chief executive in 2007 or at least a more-representative, larger election committee.

"It's not a victory for Hong Kong, it's a victory for Beijing," says veteran democracy advocate Martin Lee of Mr. Tung's exit. Mainland authorities "got their appointee to leave without acknowledging their mistakes."

Until recently, Chinese leaders appeared to prefer to stand by Mr. Tung, even though his tenure has been marked by missteps and bad timing.

But Beijing's dissatisfaction with him rose visibly within months of Mr. Hu's team taking office. A controversial proposed antisubversion law that Beijing prodded Mr. Tung to pass energized Hong Kong's democrats and spawned a massive July 2003 demonstration, forcing Mr. Tung to postpone the law's adoption.

That set the stage for a further confrontation, as the invigorated democracy camp tried to marshal public discontent to press for broadening the city's limited use of direct elections. Beijing drew the line on further concessions. After pro-Beijing candidates held their own in legislative elections last fall, Beijing breathed easier, the Chinese analysts say, but the passing of that crisis made it easier to think about replacing Mr. Tung.

Beijing may also be counting on continuing good economic times to offset critics and calls for more democracy in Hong Kong.

Since the protests in 2003, Beijing has sought to give Hong Kong's economy a boost, giving its businesses greater access to robust sectors of the Chinese economy and letting many more mainland tourists visit the city. Those measures, along with a natural spill-over effect from China's torrid economy, have buoyed the economy, which after years of torpor expanded 7.8% last year.

"If the economy under Tung Chee Hwa had been good, then people would never have come into the streets to demand direct elections," says Feng Zhongping, a specialist on European and Hong Kong affairs at a think tank affiliated with China's intelligence agency. "If there's money to be easily made, everything will be OK." 有关各方就董建华继任人选展开政治角力

随著关于香港特别行政区行政长官董建华前途的猜测日益升温，选择其继任者的政治角力已经开始。

周二晚间，香港一个有线电视新闻节目报导称，董建华将在本月被委以中国人民政治协商会议 (Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, 简称：政协 ) 的一个高层职务，在此之后他将辞职。而在此之前，《金融时报》 (Financial Times) 报导称董建华计划提早离职。在政协担任高层职务的通常都是一些退休高官。但是政治分析家仍然警告，新职位可能显示北京仍然支持董建华，尽管最近他遭到了北京方面的批评。

董建华的任期还有两年。在最近几个月，一些香港商界人士和各种政治团体开始支持他们希望的人选担任这个中国最富裕城市的领导人。下一任特首将和董建华一样，仍由一个以亲北京人士为主的委员会选出。

被认为可能接任董建华的热门人选包括政务司司长曾荫权，财政司司长唐英年以及教育统筹局局长李国章。这三个人被认为全都能被以下三个重要群体接受：北京的中国领导人；香港商界；香港政府官员。如果董建华提前离职，曾荫权将任代理特首，这可能会给他获取这一职位助一臂之力。其他可能的人选还包括立法会议员田北俊（田北俊是香港一个亲商业党派的领导人），香港机场管理局主席和香港利丰集团主席冯国经，以及立法会主席范徐丽泰。

分析师称，北京可能不会公开表明对香港下一任行政长官的人选偏好，北京在董建华身上经历了惨痛的教训。 1996 年，即一个得到北京支持的香港委员会准备选出香港殖民时代结束后的首位特首的一年前，当时的中国国家主席江泽民在北京的一次会议上从 150 人中唯独选择董建华与其在媒体前长时间亲切握手。这次广为人知的会面传递了董建华必将当选的信息。董建华在当年晚些时候成功当选， 2002 年，董建华获得北京的支持，在无对手的情况下再次当选，尽管其公众支持率在不断下滑。

政治学者称，香港精英阶层确定属意人选、并提前表达支持，这凸现出香港领导人的选举缺乏民主。去年北京拒绝了由香港人直接选举香港下一任特首的要求。现在，香港政府正考虑将选举委员会委员人数在当前 800 人的基础上增加 50% 。

尽管没有人宣布有意竞选特首职位，但是最近几周香港一些富商对曾荫权和唐英年表达了支持，例如，赌业大亨何鸿 和地产巨头胡应湘就公开表示支持曾荫权。

何鸿 对香港当地媒体表示，他给曾荫权打 90 分，如果这样一个人才提前退休将是一种浪费。何鸿 目前是政协委员，他还表示，如果曾荫权不能连续担任两届香港特首，那也是一种浪费。

许多人将曾荫权视为董建华的继任者，因为这位受人尊敬的、对蝴蝶结领带情有独钟的职业官员既与北京保持著良好的关系，同时也受到香港公众的欢迎。而公众支持率低的董建华则一直被许多香港人视为过于顺从大陆当局的意愿。

香港大学 (University of Hong Kong) 周二公布的一项民意调查显示，三分之二的受访者不赞成董建华担任特首。这与董建华第二任期内的其他一些调查结果基本一致。

曾荫权的候选人地位也许并非不可动摇。亲北京的立法会议员田北俊也被视为特首的一个候选人，他在 12 月份时曾表示，他担心曾荫权可能会利用其担任一个价值 30 亿美元的艺术与住宅开发项目负责人的身份赢得香港势力庞大的地产巨头的支持。

财政司司长唐英年也是一个强有力的竞争者，尤其是香港经济过去一年稳步走强。国际货币基金组织 (The International Monetary Fund) 周二称，香港在截至 2007 年 3 月 31 日的财年可能会实现预算盈余，提前两年达到这一目标。

香港城市大学 (City University) 政治学教授郑宇硕 (Joseph Cheng) 说，很不幸，香港特首选举成为官员和商界精英对所中意的选手和黑马下注的一场“赛马”。他说，最大的问题是，香港人民无权选择任何人。

去年北京表示不会允许香港直接选举下一任特首和所有立法会议员，由此导致香港数十万人在 7 月 1 日香港回归 7 周年之际走上街头示威游行。

LEX 专栏：特首辞职传言困惑香港

Lex live: Hong Kong

In some respects at least, Hong Kong has not changed. Among the first to comment on the possible resignation of Tung Chee-hwa, the territory's chief executive, was the chairman of the Jockey Club. Still, Mr Tung's rumoured departure is itself a stark reminder that Beijing wears the trousers.

Ironically, the market reaction might be positive. Mr Tung made several bungles, including his reaction to the Sars epidemic, new security laws and a recent property vehicle listing. His likely successor, Donald Tsang, is considered a skilled technocrat. He masterminded Hong Kong's $15bn government intervention in the stock market in 1998. Criticised ferociously at the time, it is now widely viewed as a masterstroke.

Yet while the rumoured change may improve the competence of Hong Kong's governance, its manner underlines that the territory's autonomy remains badly compromised. Mr Tung has been publicly criticised by China's newish president, Hu Jintao. Although Mr Tung ' s successor would be notionally elected by an 800 member forum, China can be assured its man will get the job.

From a financial perspective, does any of this matter? In many respects, no. Admittedly, Hong Kong's sovereign credit rating, at A+, is three notches above China's. But Hong Kong's rating is arguably low given its government's almost unique, although deteriorating, status as a net creditor. Similarly Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong are not given a political risk penalty relative to Hong Kong shares. The market does not therefore, take Hong Kong's autonomy seriously. Since China's government doesn't either, that looks logical. LEX 专栏：特首辞职传言困惑香港

至少在某些方面，香港并没有变。就香港特首董建华可能辞职一事，首先发表评论的人士中就包括香港赛马会 (Jockey Club) 的董事长。有关董先生离职的传言仍在清楚地提醒人们，中国方面仍掌控着香港的大权。

具有讽刺意味的是，市场的反应可能是积极的。董先生办砸了几件事，其中包括他对非典蔓延、香港新国安条例和近期房产投资工具上市等事务的反应。他可能的继任者曾荫权被认为是个娴熟的技术专家型的政治人物。 1998 年，香港政府动用 150 亿美元干预股市，曾先生是那次行动的策划者。尽管此举当时遭到了强烈批评，但现在则被普遍看作是次绝妙的行动。

然而，虽然传闻中的人事变动可能会改善香港在治理上的竞争力，但这种变化的方式突出表明，香港特区的自治权受到了严重损害。董先生曾受到中国新一任国家主席胡锦涛的公开批评。尽管董先生的继任者可能名义上将由 800 人的委员会选举出来，但中国肯定会让它的人当选。

从金融角度来看，这些东西要紧吗？在许多方面是无关紧要的。不可否认，香港的主权信用评级为 A+ ，比中国的评级要高 3 级。但香港政府几乎是独一无二的净债权政府，基于港府的这种情况 ( 尽管它正在恶化 ) ，香港的评级可以说是比较低的。同样，相对于香港股票而言，大陆企业在港上市的 H 股却没有因政治风险而受到太大影响。因此，市场没有把香港的自治当回事。既然中国政府也是如此，这种情况看上去就顺理成章了。