投资中国股市 机遇风险并存

Emerging Ways to Invest In the Wild, Wild East

Up until now, American investors wanting to profit from China's explosive growth largely have concentrated on the relatively small lot of Chinese stocks that trade on U.S. exchanges. But some professional investors are now pushing a more direct, and much riskier, approach: buying shares of companies that are listed on local Chinese stock markets.

Advocates of this strategy -- mostly hedge funds and mutual-fund managers -- are convinced the best opportunities lie in the smaller, entrepreneurial Chinese companies that trade on the exchanges in Hong Kong and Singapore -- and the less-regulated exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The most bullish tout the investing environment as comparable with what America represented a century ago, a risky place but an opportunity to invest early and for the long haul in an emerging economic giant.

This option of buying Chinese stocks directly, or buying funds that specialize in them, raises a broader question: For investors who want some exposure to one of the world's fastest-growing economies, what is the best way to play China? The answer depends in large part on how much risk an investor is willing to accept.


Migrant workers at a construction site in Sichuan province, China.


To date, Americans have largely invested in China-focused mutual funds, as well as American depositary receipts, the domestically listed shares of individual Chinese companies. More recently, another option emerged: China-focused exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, such as the PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio, which tracks an index comprised of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. These options come with some built-in protections because American markets are so heavily regulated -- and they offer diversity.

Investing directly in Chinese stocks is a significant departure from all this. While Wall Street firms aren't broadly pitching this approach -- after all, it's hard enough to pick stocks domestically, much less in a country with nascent regulatory and accounting practices -- they are increasingly offering such opportunities to wealthy clients. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. provides access to the Jayhawk China Fund, a hedge fund that invests almost solely in Chinese shares generally unavailable on U.S. markets. Morgan Stanley has a relationship with Doric Capital, a Hong Kong firm that has a hedge fund investing in small-cap Chinese stocks. In addition, a variety of brokerage firms based in Hong Kong and Singapore provide individual U.S. investors the opportunity to buy Chinese stocks that aren't available in U.S. markets.

The risks are immense. Chinese stock markets are home to many young, unproven companies that are susceptible to wild cycles of hype and disillusionment. After a fivefold increase from March 2000 to June 2001, for instance, Shanghai's index of so-called B shares -- those legally available to foreigners -- has fallen more than 60%. Financial-reporting standards are lax at best. China's currency doesn't yet trade freely on world markets, and its stock markets are especially vulnerable to social, economic and political upheaval. Just this month, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for a sharp reduction in China's investment growth this year, a sign the government is fighting to keep the roaring economy from spinning out of control.

"Just because some place is expected to grow doesn't mean that it does," says Jack Caffrey , equity strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, citing Argentina and Russia as economies that were emerging alongside the U.S. in the 19th century. "History is fraught with examples where if you're not careful it doesn't always pan out."

The China bulls counter that China's experiences today aren't so different from what European investors faced when considering putting their money to work in a much younger America. At the turn of the 20th century, "America was a horrible place," says Jim Rogers, the investor-turned-author who is a strong proponent of the coming China century. "We had no rule of law. We'd just come off a Civil War. Presidents were being assassinated. And we'd had 15 depressions in the 19th century alone."

INVESTMENT OPTIONS


From the generally safest to the riskiest options, here are some ways Americans can invest in China, beyond so-called A shares, which for the moment are only available to Chinese citizens.

Category Comment
Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) U.S. based. Own baskets of investments. Some funds, like Matthews China Fund, generally focus on Hong Kong and Chinese markets; ETFs like the PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio track indexes comprised largely of ADRs (see below).
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) Individual Chinese stocks that are listed on U.S. markets and exchanges. Companies include Huaneng Power International and China Life Insurance.
H shares and Red Chips Hong Kong-listed stocks of Chinese companies, such as vegetable grower China Green and supermarket chain Lianhua. They're under the eye of Hong Kong's securities regulators.
B shares The stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzen exchanges, such as property developer China Vanke. Much riskier and with less regulatory oversight.



Below is a closer look at the expanding array of options for investing in China, starting with what many experts consider to be the least risky approach and ending with the riskiest:

? Mutual funds and ETFs. Mutual funds and ETFs own broad baskets of Chinese stocks, offering investors diversity and thereby mitigating the risks of owning any one particular stock. Most actively managed funds own a mixture of ADRs, Hong Kong-based companies and Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies. A smaller percentage own B shares of Chinese companies, which trade in mainland stock markets. ETFs, on the other hand, typically track an index of China-related stocks.


Mutual funds with a big exposure to Chinese stocks in Hong Kong and China include the Matthews China Fund, the Guinness Atkinson China & Hong Kong Fund, and the U.S. Global Investors China Opportunity Fund. During the past three years, these funds have posted annualized returns of 16.2%, 18.0% and 18.5%.

The downside to mutual funds is that they're so broadly invested that a big price jump in a smaller, more rapidly growing company can be lost inside a big portfolio. Though actively managed funds often lag behind index funds in more efficient, developed markets like the U.S., active management can sometimes make a big difference in an inefficient market like China.

The Matthews China Fund, which invests in local Chinese stocks, is one that has performed relatively well in its short history. In the more than three-year span in which the Shanghai B-share index is off more than 60%, the Matthews fund is up a cumulative 39.4%. "We really think the smaller companies in China that are successful are the more interesting investments," says Mark Headley, portfolio manager of the Matthews Asian Funds in San Francisco.

? ADRs. ADRs and other U.S.-listed Chinese stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market are relatively easy to buy and sell, given that they trade in U.S. markets and in U.S. dollars. Moreover, those that are listed must abide by U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.


A Chinese crane: construction in Beijing.


That's a big plus: Nearly three-quarters of respondents in a 2004 survey of Asia-Pacific accounting standards gave China's accounting practices a grade of C or D. Comments noted that "the accounting standards are not strictly followed," that "outsiders can hardly get the true message about the running of the company," and that "the existence of insider trading, lack of regulation and a generally opaque corporate culture" are commonplace. Yxa Bazan, a vice president with J.P. Morgan's ADR Group, says that for individual investors, ADRs "are just easier."

On the downside, the ADR universe is fairly limited -- only about 40 Chinese companies are included on J.P. Morgan's adr.com. Also, in many cases, investors have bid up the shares. Many "trade at two or three times what they otherwise would if they traded in China," says Kent McCarthy, who runs the Jayhawk China Fund, which is based in Prairie Village, Kan. Some China specialists also argue that many ADRs represent old-line, formerly state-owned industries and don't have the same degree of growth potential as do the smaller companies that are expected to lead China's expansion.

? H shares and Red Chips. H shares and so-called Red Chips are Chinese companies whose stocks trade in Hong Kong. (The former are issued by Chinese-incorporated companies; the latter by Hong Kong-incorporated ones.) They tend to be more stable, provide greater corporate governance and financial reporting, and fall under the jurisdiction of Hong Kong's securities regulators.

CHINA ONLINE


These Web sites are good starting points for researching potential Chinese investment opportunities.

Web Address What You'll Find
irasia.com Broad access to annual reports, financial filings and general news about regional companies.
listedcompany.com Much of the same, but also allows you to monitor current and recent IPOs.
hkex.com.hk Home page of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Retrieve complete list of Chinese H shares and Red Chips; performance data; stock charts; company announcements and regulatory filings. Also has links to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
ses.com.sg Home page of the Singapore Stock Exchange. Convenient links to company profiles and market data. Investors can register for free research from local brokerage firms such as Kim-Eng Securities and DBS Vickers.
sse.com.cn Home page of Shanghai Stock Exchange. Click on English version, top right. Posts data on the B-share market.
shkonline.com, boom.com, kimeng.com All three sites feature market data for investing in the region, including China.

Source: WSJ research



For investors willing to take on the significantly higher risks of going overseas, brokerage firms such as Kim Eng Securities in Singapore, and SHK Financial Group and Boom Securities, both in Hong Kong, will open accounts for American investors -- often online or via e-mail. You will have to wire the money into the account, or deposit it in person if you are traveling in the region. All offer online trading and provide access to Chinese stocks that trade in Singapore and Hong Kong, home to more Chinese-company listings than any other exchange outside mainland China. Some give investors access to the B-share market directly in China, and many provide research reports on Chinese companies.

There are other ways to research these stocks. There are a variety of Web sites that provide access to Chinese-company financial statements in English, including annual reports -- which are typically audited -- and press releases. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange site, in particular, has an abundance of data and links to corporate reports. (See accompanying chart.)

But are H shares and Red Chips safe for small investors? Romeo Dator, portfolio manager for U.S. Global Investors China Opportunity Fund, says that individuals should stick to mutual funds because they'll get the diversity they need to mitigate the company-specific risks of owning individual Chinese stocks. "However, if individuals really do want to buy Chinese stocks on their own," he says, "they should be doing it in [H shares and Red Chips] in Hong Kong."

? Hedge funds. Hedge funds have their own special risks, let alone the risks of investing in a volatile market like China: They are lightly regulated and can pursue far more risky strategies than do mutual funds and ETFs, including short-selling stocks, in which the investor bets the share price will fall.


Moreover, hedge funds require big-dollar investments of often $100,000 or more, are available only to wealthy investors, and charge not only management fees of typically 1% of the assets, but they also often keep as much as 20% of the profits in a performance fee. Some hedge funds, like the Jayhawk China Fund, are U.S.-based. Other hedge funds are based in Hong Kong and invest in publicly traded shares exclusively in Hong Kong and mainland China.

? B shares. B shares represent the Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies that foreigners are allowed to buy. These shares are priced in Hong Kong and American dollars but aren't subject to the same degree of regulatory scrutiny as shares trading in Hong Kong, Singapore and the U.S. Some Asia-based stock experts liken B shares to penny stocks. That isn't universally true -- although they are among the riskiest options for individual investors because they are more loosely regulated, accounting standards are more lax, and the shares can be more difficult to trade. Yet this is the place where investors will find many of the small entrepreneurial companies that could benefit from China's expansive growth.

? A shares. These represent the largest lot of domestic Chinese companies, but are available only to local Chinese investors. Yet the Chinese government is slowly changing that. Brokerage firm UBS AG, for example, is allowed to purchase up to $800 million of A shares on behalf of foreign retail customers. UBS is exploring plans to eventually offer clients of its U.S. and European private banks access to A shares, though the firm is offering them only to institutional investors at the moment.


Meanwhile, Nikko Asset Management in Japan is poised to launch next month the first mutual fund that will offer foreigners direct access to China's A shares. Though open only to Japanese investors, Nikko hopes to offer the fund to U.S. and other foreign investors later this year. Once available, the A shares are likely to represent the same level of risk as the B shares.
投资中国股市 机遇风险并存

到目前为止，想从中国经济的飞速发展中获利的美国投资者大都只关注在美国上市的少数几只中国公司股票。但有些专业投资者开始尝试一种更直接、更冒险的方法：投资在中国大陆、香港和新加坡挂牌交易的中国公司股票。

支持这种交易策略的人──大多是对冲基金和共同基金的经理──深信最佳的获利机会蕴藏在规模较小、颇具企业家精神的中国公司身上，他们当中最乐观的人甚至将中国的投资气氛比做一个世纪前的美国，一个充满风险、但也机会无限的投资宝地，幸运的投资者可以从中国这个新兴经济巨人的初期发展中斩获丰厚利润。

这种直接投资中国股票或者买入中国股票投资基金的做法带来了一个普遍问题：对于那些想稍稍涉足这个全球经济发展最快的经济体的投资者来说，应该如何行事？这个问题的答案在很大程度上要取决于投资者愿意承担多大的风险。

至今，美国人大多投资偏重中国股票的共同基金以及中国公司发行的美国存托凭证等。最近又出现了一种新的工具：偏重中国股票的上市交易基金(ETF)，例如PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX中国投资组合，它跟踪一个以在美国上市的中国公司股票为成份股的指数。由于美国市场监管非常严格，这些投资选择存在内在保护机制，同时也提供了多样化的投资渠道。

但直接投资中国股票却与以上种种大相径庭。虽然华尔街券商大体上并不支持这种投资策略──毕竟，仅挑选美国国内的股票已经够难的了，就更不用说在一个监管和会计核算制度初立的国家挑选股票了──不过，这些券商还是纷纷面向富裕投资者开发了更多这类投资品种。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)推出了Jayhawk中国基金，一只几乎完全投资不在美国市场交易的中国股票的对冲基金。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)与香港券商Doric Capital建立了业务关系，后者有一个投资中国小型股的对冲基金。此外，香港和新加坡的许多券商也向美国散户投资者提供投资不在美国市场挂牌的中国股票的机会。

风险的确很大，中国股市中有大量年轻的企业，大起大落实属平常。比如，沪市B股指数在2000年3月到2001年6月间曾飙升四倍，但现在又有超过60%的跌幅。根据中国的有关规定，外国投资者只能在B股市场投资。中国上市企业发布财务报告的标准松散不定。中国的货币还不能在全球市场上自由交易和兑换，股市则很容易受到社会、经济和政治变化的冲击。

就在本月，中国总理温家宝呼吁大幅下调今年的经济增长率目标，意味著政府正在尽力控制经济增长的幅度，以免失控。

J.P. Morgan Private Bank的股票策略师杰克?卡弗里(Jack Caffrey)说，有增长希望并不意味著事实就是如此。他以阿根廷和俄罗斯经济为例，表示历史经验无数次地证明必须谨慎。

看涨中国的投资者反驳说，中国目前的经济走势与当年欧洲投资者押宝的更年轻的美国经济相比并没有多大区别。在19世纪和20世纪之交，“美国是一个可怕的地方，”吉姆?罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说，“当时的美国毫无法制观念，南北战争刚刚结束，有多起总统刺杀事件。整个19世纪，美国经历了大大小小15次经济衰退。”罗杰斯强烈支持21世纪是中国的世纪这个观点，他曾经是股市投资者，现为作家。

以下是投资中国的诸多选择，按专家眼中的风险程度由低到高排列：

一、共同基金和上市交易基金。许多共同基金和上市交易基金都有广泛的中国股票组合，可以为投资者提供多样性，并降低持有某一类股的风险。大多数积极管理基金混合持有美国存托凭证、香港股市红筹股和H股等。一小部分基金持有中国大陆股市B股。上市交易基金通常跟踪中国相关股票的指数。

在香港及中国大陆大量投资中国股票的共同基金包括Matthews中国基金、Guinness Atkinson中国大陆及香港基金，以及U.S. Global Investors中国机会基金。在过去3年中，这些基金折合成年率的回报率分别为16.2%、18.0%和18.5%。

投资共同基金的不利面在于它们的投资范围很广，以至于一家较小的高成长公司的股价大幅上扬可能无法在庞大的投资组合中反映出来。虽然积极管理基金在美国等更加高效和发达的市场上表现经常落后于指数基金，但积极的管理有时在中国大陆这样的低效市场上的确可以看到成效。

投资中国大陆股市的Matthews中国基金虽然历史短暂，但表现相对出色。在上海B股指数下跌60%多的三年多时间里，Matthews基金累计上涨了39.4%。Matthews亚洲基金的投资组合经理马克?黑德利(Mark Headley)说：“我们认为成功的中国大陆中小企业更具投资吸引力。”

二、美国存托凭证。对于投资者来说，在纽约证交所及那斯达克市场挂牌交易的中国公司的美国存托凭证及股票的买卖相对简单，因为它们是在美国市场上以美元交易。而且，在美国挂牌交易的股票必须遵守美国公认会计准则。

这点很重要：在2004年亚太地区一项会计标准的调查中，近四分之三的受访者对中国的会计规范打分C或D。人们普遍抱怨“会计标准并未严格遵守”、“局外人很难了解公司运营的真实信息”、“存在内幕交易，缺乏监管，以及企业文化不透明”等等。JP摩根(J.P.Morgan)旗下ADR Group的副总裁巴赞(Yxa Bazan)说，对个人投资者来说，美国存托凭证更容易操作。

不利面在于美国存托凭证的选择范围非常有限，在JP摩根的adr.com网站上，中国大陆公司的美国存托凭证大约只有40只。而且这些美国存托凭证的价格很多已被投资者推高。Jayhawk中国基金的主管肯特?麦卡锡(Kent McCarthy)说，许多美国存托凭证的价格都要比如果在中国市场交易高出一、两倍。一些中国专家也表示，许多发行美国存托凭证的中国大陆企业都是保守的中国国有行业，不具备将成为中国经济扩张推动力的中小企业的增长潜力。

三、H股和红筹股。H股和所谓的“红筹股”都是香港上市的中国大陆公司股票，前者由注册地在大陆的公司发行，后者由注册地在香港的公司发行。这些股票的表现通常较为稳定，公司治理水平较高，财务报告较为明晰，而且受香港证券监管机构管辖。

想大举投资海外市场的投资者可以去找新加坡的金英证券(Kim Eng Securities)、香港的新鸿基金融集团(SHK Financial Group)和宝盛证券(Boom Securities)，它们会为美国投资者开立交易账户──往往是通过网络或者电子邮件开户。投资者必须将资金汇到这个账户，或者到借到当地旅游之机亲自存款。这些券商都提供网上交易服务，客户可以籍此投资在新加坡或者香港上市的中国股票。除了中国大陆股市以外，这两地是中国公司寻求海外上市的主要目的地。一些券商向投资者提供直接投资大陆B股市场的机会，许多提供中国上市公司的研究报告。

研究这类股票还有其他途径。许多网站都可以检索中国上市公司财务报告的英文版，包括年报（往往经过审计）和新闻稿。尤其是香港交易所的网站，这里提供大量的数据以及与公司消息有关的各种链接。

但对小投资者来说，H股和红筹股是安全的投资之地吗？U.S. Global Investors中国机会基金的投资组合经理达特(Romeo Dator)说，散户投资者应该投资共同基金，基金的多样化投资可以避免持有个股可能遭遇的风险。“不过，如果散户投资者实在想自己买进中国公司股票，那么他应该投资香港股市（的H股和红筹股）。”

四、对冲基金。对冲基金本身就有风险，更何况投资中国股市这样动荡不安的市场了。对冲基金受到的监管较少，相比共同基金和上市交易基金，可采用风险较高的交易策略，包括卖空等。

此外，对冲基金的投资起点比较高，一般是10万美元以上，只有富有的投资者才承担得起。而且，对冲基金不但向客户收取资产1%的管理费，还往往扣除至多20%的投资利润作为基金管理公司的业绩费。有些对冲基金的总部在美国，像Jayhawk中国基金；有些在香港，而且单单投资在香港和大陆上市的股票。

五、B股。B股即外国投资者获准购买的沪深两市股票，分别用美元和港元计价，但市场监管力度不及香港、新加坡和美国股市。亚洲一些股票专家将B股比作低价股(penny stock)，但这种说法并不尽然，虽然这些股票由于受到监管较少、会计准松散和实现交易较难，的确称得上是散户最冒险的投资选择之一。但从这里，投资者也能发现许多深具开拓创新精神、能从中国经济的飞速发展中受益的小型企业。

六、A股。这个市场有大量的中国大陆企业，仅面向国内投资者。但中国政府也在逐步改变这一点。比如，证券公司瑞士银行(UBS AG)就获准代表外国散户投资者买入不超过8亿美元的A股。该行目前只向机构投资者提供投资中国A股的渠道，但正在制订计划，旨在最终向美欧两地私人银行的客户提供同样的机会。

此外，日本的日兴资产管理有限公司(Nikko Asset Management)定于下月推出第一只允许外国投资者直接投资中国A股的共同基金。虽然目前只向日本投资者开放，该公司希望这只基金今年晚些时候能向美国和其他国家的投资者开放。一旦成为外国投资者的投资选择之一，A股的风险水平可能类似于B股。

中国股市：新年大发？
Lex: Chinese stocks

Every dog has its day. China’s troubled stock market is having its, perversely enough, ahead of the year of the dog. In the two-month run-up to last week’s lunar new year, Shanghai’s domestic currency “A” share market rallied 15 per cent. This follows five years during which the market halved in value.


Rising prices owe much to seasonal exuberance: stock market rallies are as common as fireworks at new year. But this time bulls reckon there is more substance. The market reforms of 2005 means the massive over-hang of non-tradeable shares

牛市已久 后续乏力

Aging Bull Suffers From Bad Breadth

Vital Signs

LIKE A SENIOR CITIZEN'S circle of friends, this bull market is narrowing as it ages.

Having begun in an all-inclusive upward sprint two years ago, today's stock market is relying on fewer and fewer participants to keep it aloft.

The large-cap equity proxy Standard & Poor's 500 is down just 1.8%, year to date, at 1189, after last week's 0.9% pullback, and the exclusive Dow Industrials are off a mere 1.4% this year, at 10,629, after slipping 144 points last week.

But the all-encompassing Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 is down 2%. The 3,000-stock Nasdaq Composite slouched to a new closing low Friday at 2007 and has lost 7.7% in 2005. And the rolling tally of advancing versus declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange fell by 4.5% in the 10 days through Thursday, with the comparable Nasdaq gauge appearing even more wobbly.

John Roque, the technical analyst at Natexis Bleichroeder, points out that, excluding the energy and materials sectors, the rest of the S&P 500 is down a striking 6.3% this year. That's especially painful for a lot of investors, given that those two sectors represent scantly more than 10% of the benchmark's value, so the majority of stock owners probably don't own enough of them to be keeping up with the index. This neatly explains both the pervasive frustration among professional investors as the first quarter winds down, and the rush of eager money into energy and materials shares in recent weeks.

The recent slide in the Treasury-bond market and the attendant climb in longer-term interest rates have pressured financial shares, too, and the 409-stock NYSE financial index has badly lagged the rest of the market.

Last week's disclosure of a projected loss by General Motors (see story, Auto Crash) rattled the non-government market, as well, further pressuring financial shares and compromising one of the most bullish supports for stocks -- a cocky and liquid corporate-bond market.


Ned Davis Research last week noted that the spread between high-grade corporate yields and the S&P 500's trailing earnings yield (the latest 12-months' earnings divided by share price) was near a record low. In other words, stock investors were particularly risk-averse, relative to bond mavens. That, historically, has indicated good buying opportunities for stocks.

There's been a debate on Wall Street, however, as to whether bond investors were too optimistic or stock players too reserved. A third possibility -- that risk-evading companies were doing more to cheer bondholders than enrich stock owners -- was also in the mix. Last week's action didn't come near to resolving the issue, but the stock market did not appear to react well to the selling squall in corporate debt.

In truth, it was tough to get a read on the market's present inclination late last week, due to lots of mechanical noise drowning out the tape's true message. Some two billion shares traded on the NYSE Friday, with volume in the first hour the third-heaviest ever. Options and futures expiration and the S&P indexes' shift to a "free-float" weighting created lots of rote trading activity by hedgers and index funds.

For certain, as bull markets mature, it's natural for them to become narrower, less expansive in their gifts. And, reviewing the above litany of ills in the headlines last week, it's quite possible that the market is nearing a point when the bulls will, yet again, be emboldened to buy aggressively.

But given the slimming base on which stocks are standing, it's not clear that a juicy buying chance -- one that would dramatically raise the opportunity cost of standing pat -- has yet been reached.

has crude oil's ramp to record

prices above $56 a barrel sucked a raft of small-time speculators and bandwagon-jumpers into energy stocks, making the sector a bit "too popular"?

Or do investors retain an instinctive skepticism toward the hot-performing energy sector, indicating that the stocks can continue outracing the market for some time to come?

The answer to those questions, it seems, is "Yes."

This paradox can be explained by distinguishing between time horizons.

On a very short-term basis, and relative to the recent past, there are signs that some hot money has piled into energy.

Weekly net flows into retail energy-sector mutual funds went from nil in late January to $400 million the week before last. The assets of the Rydex Energy Services Fund -- which caters to small speculators -- quadrupled to $160 million since mid-December.


Speculative traders have also become net long oil futures and options, after sitting on the bearish side of the trade through much of oil's 2005 run.

This kind of evidence of speculative ferment could retard much immediate progress in oil-related stocks for a little while, or lead to a pullback that could shake out fickle traders and refresh what is, by all appearances, a powerful bull market.

But before starting the loose talk of an energy-stock bubble, widen out the picture a bit, and find that investor psychology toward the sector hardly seems giddy.

For one thing, energy still accounts for less than 9% of the S&P 500's market value, versus more than 33% for tech at the 2000 peak. Those energy mutual funds that have been getting quick cash recently remain a tiny pool of money in the grand scheme. According to Lipper, natural resources funds (including energy) have aggregate assets of $25.4 billion. That compares with $39 billion for tech funds, $47 billion for health-care funds and $44 billion for real-estate portfolios.

Also consider that short interest in energy stocks is 50% above its historical average. On the fundamental front, energy companies are still enjoying a tailwind that isn't yet reflected in formal profit forecasts.

Of course, the futures market could be getting carried away. But the numbers suggest that any short-term pullback wouldn't spell a quick end of energy's bull run.

at the house that media convergence Built -- the twin-towered Time Warner Center on Manhattan's Columbus Circle -- the marriage of content and distribution across all varieties of media remains the animating theory.

Less than a mile down Broadway, however, at Viacom's Times Square headquarters, some doubts are being expressed about the very linkage of content and distribution that Viacom pioneered in the 1990s.

Viacom floated the notion last week of separating the company into two publicly traded pieces, one that would house content (Paramount and cable networks) and the other focused largely on distribution (CBS, television stations, radio and billboards).
牛市已久 后续乏力

现在的牛市感觉就像老年人一样，随著时间的推移，朋友越来越少。

两年前，股市开始强劲上涨的时候，人人都争先恐后的；但今天，能赖以推高股市的参与者越来越少了。

今年截至目前，反映大型股走势的标准普尔500指数累计下跌1.8%至1189点，上周一周内下跌了0.9%；道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌了1.4%，至10,629点，上周下跌144点。

但覆盖范围更广的道琼斯威尔希尔5000指数今年以来下跌了2%；涵盖3,000只股票的那斯达克综合指数上周五跌至2007点的新低，而其今年以来的累计跌幅已达到了7.7%。纽约证交所上涨股和下跌股的比例在截至上周四的10个交易日中下降了4.5%；而那斯达克市场这个比例下降得更剧烈。

Natexis Bleichroeder技术分析师洛克(John Roque)指出，如果剔除能源和原材料类股，今年以来标普500指数的跌幅已经达到6.3%。这对许多投资者都是非常痛苦的事，因为这两个类股在标普500的权重刚刚10%出头，多数投资者可能并没有多少这两类股票。

从这一点正可以理解两个现象：一是第一季度结束时专业投资者普遍唉声叹气；一是近几周资金急忙涌向能源和原材料两类股票。

国债市场近期的下滑以及中长期利率的相应上涨也对金融类股构成了压力，涵盖409只股票的纽约证交所金融分类指数远远落后于市场其他类股。

上周通用汽车发布预亏的消息也给公司债券市场造成了恐慌，进一步打压了金融类股，并危及了股市最强有力的支持者之一──一向自信且流动性良好的公司债券市场。

Ned Davis Research上周指出，高级别公司债券的收益率和标普500往绩收益率（即过去12个月的收益除以股价得到的值）的差距已接近历史低位。也就是说，与债市专家相比，股票投资者现在特别害怕风险。这种现象从过往经验看，往往是在股市买进的良机。

不过华尔街一直在争论是债券投资者太乐观了，还是股票投资者太保守了。或者还有第三种可能：希望逃避风险的公司对债券投资者比对股票投资者更尽心。上周的行动并未能解决这个问题，但股票市场似乎对公司债券的抛售风潮并未做出积极反应。

说实话，很难对市场上周后几天的走向作出解读，原因是有很多客观因素的干扰。上周五，纽约证交所交易量达到20亿股，其中第一个小时的交易量是有记录以来第三高位。期权和期货到期以及标普500指数转向以自由流通股确定权重引发对冲基金和指数基金作出大量调整性交易。

的确，随著牛市渐趋成熟，它所能提供的礼物也会逐渐减少且价格也会变得比较低廉。而且，如果重新审视一下上述上周媒体新闻里提到的坏消息，很有可能市场正在接近这样一种形势：那就是看涨人士将再次鼓起勇气大胆买进。

但考虑到股市目前根基不稳，因此很难说现在是否已到买进的时候了。毕竟，买进要付出原地不动的机会成本，这可不能小觑。

──原油价格窜升至56美元以上的历史高点是否已吸引大量小型投机商和跟风的买家、以至于能源类股变得“太热门了”？

或者，投资者对炙手可热的能源类股还保持著本能的怀疑，因此可以预计，该类股在未来一段时间将继续强于大盘？

这些问题的答案看来都是肯定的。

这种自相矛盾的现象可以从对时间的界定来解释。

从很短一段时期来看、也就是相对于最近的过去来说，的确有种种迹象显示一些热钱蜂拥进能源股了。

前一周，流向各能源类股共同基金的净资金从1月底时的几近于零增加到4亿美元。面向小型投机人士的Rydex能源服务基金的资产自从12月中旬以来增加了三倍，达到1.6亿美元。

投机交易员在石油期权和期货上的头寸已呈净多头，而此前在今年以来油价上涨阶段，他们一直还处于净空头状态。

这种显示投机活跃的迹象在一定时间里或许会阻碍能源类股的迅速上升，或导致该类股回落，从而令心急气躁的交易员择路而逃，并使从各方面看都像是一个大牛市的市场为之色变。

但在开始谈论能源类股泡沫之前，如果将视野放得更开阔些，我们会发现，投资者对该类股的投资思路看来并不轻率。

首先，能源类股目前还不到标普500总市值的9%，而2000年科技股在其高峰期的权重高达33%。那些近来资产急速扩大的能源类股共同基金从大范围来看只能算小巫见大巫。据Lipper的数据，自然资源类基金（包括能源类基金）总资产达到254亿美元，与之相比，科技股基金总资产达到了390亿美元，医疗保健基金是470亿美元，房地产投资基金是440亿美元。

值得考虑的还有，能源类股的空头头寸较其历史平均水平高50%。从行业基本面上来说，能源企业目前仍处于顺风期，而这一点从他们的正式利润预期里还看不出来。

当然，期货市场或许会走下坡。但数字显示，任何短期回落并不说明能源业的牛市行情会很快结束。

外国投资者对B股重燃信心

Some Fund Managers Put Faith Back in China's Class B Shares

China's Class B shares haven't won many friends among foreign investors, especially given their generally dismal performance last year. Yet a few fund managers are putting their faith back in the Bs. With plenty of skepticism, they hope to ferret out a handful of promising stocks to propel investment returns this year. And the markets for Chinese B shares -- which are denominated in U.S. or Hong Kong dollars, unlike Class A shares, which are in yuan -- have made an encouraging start in 2005.

Last year, the Class B share index in Shenzhen fell 19%, while a similar index for Shanghai plunged nearly 27%. So far this year, Shenzhen's Class B share index has risen 22% and Shanghai is up 7.7% -- so B shares on the Chinese markets are outperforming Class H shares, as mainland companies trading in Hong Kong are called. The HS China Enterprises Index, which tracks major H shares, has gained 3.8% this year.

IN THE MARKET



See more coverage of Asia's financial sector, from IPOs to banking to bond offerings.



The B share market is smaller and has evolved much more slowly than that for A shares, available mainly to Chinese. Most foreign investors wanting to participate in China's rapid economic growth have opted to go through U.S.-listed Chinese companies or stock markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong, where the bulk of Chinese companies listed outside the mainland are traded.

Investing in B shares is fraught with risk, from poor market liquidity to possible corporate malfeasance. Trading in B shares is often cumbersome, and unloading shares of a bad stock can require Herculean efforts.

Also, global investment banks have played down B shares as a way to invest in China. The excitement over QFII, the Chinese government's program to allocate a limited amount of A shares to foreigners, has also damped interest in the B share market. In a bid to raise foreign investment in its stock markets, China is planning to expand QFII allocations.

Not surprisingly, given the overall picture, most stock-research firms don't prepare reports on B share companies, and such equities sometimes trade at substantial discounts to the A share market and to U.S.-listed Chinese companies.

But for some fund managers, it's the lack of research (read publicity) from investment banks and the existence of the discounts that they find enticing about the B market.

"We need to be looking back at that space," says Kent McCarthy , who runs the Jayhawk China Fund, a Prairie Village, Kansas, hedge fund investing almost exclusively in Chinese companies not listed in the U.S.

Mr. McCarthy has invested only a tiny portion of his fund's money in B shares during the past two years, largely because the B share discount has narrowed since the government changed its policy in 2001, allowing Chinese citizens to invest in both B and A shares. He says solid B share companies now might offer a share-price discount of between 10% and 20%. Watch out for B shares priced 70% to 80% below the A shares, Mr. McCarthy says. Those likely include the less stable enterprises.

Not all Chinese companies offer both A and B shares. Both markets have developed rather haphazardly over the years, with some companies choosing to list only one type of share.

One company Mr. McCarthy favors is China International Marine Containers, one of the world's biggest manufacturers of containers. Mr. McCarthy says low-cost production capabilities have shielded it from world-wide economic downturns that pummeled rivals. The company is a major global player, he says, adding that "it's hard to find a market leader in China."

To some extent, investors have caught on. Both kinds of the company's stock have risen dramatically so far this year -- the A shares by 51%, the Bs by 65%. Yet China International Marine's A shares are still more expensive, at about 14 times 2004 earnings. By contrast, the company's B shares are trading at around 11 times last year's earnings.

Mr. McCarthy says that about 15 months ago, he received a sell-side research report touting China International Marine's A shares as a good buy. Fine, he says, but "why would I buy A shares when they are trading at a premium to the B shares?"

A similar story emerges when comparing A and B shares of Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine, a winery in Shandong province whose popular brand has been around more than a century. Yantai's B shares have been trading at about 16 times earnings, while its A shares maintain the much richer multiple of 26. Private equity shop J.P. Morgan Partners is considering buying a 10% stake in Yantai's parent company.

Because B shares fell out of favor with many investors, says Vincent Chan, head of China research at Credit Suisse First Boston, some trade at valuation levels far more attractive than those found in Hong Kong's universe of Chinese-listed stocks. In late January, investors guzzled Dynasty Fine Wines' newly listed Hong Kong shares, which rose 39% on their first day of trading.

One analyst asserts that Yantai's B shares seem a bargain compared with the array of Chinese food and beverage companies traded in Hong Kong.

In some cases, B shares are simply ignored, while companies in the same sector listed in Hong Kong garner attention from fund managers. China Vanke, for instance, a residential-property developer in the B market, is considered strong in corporate governance and financial fundamentals by some analysts, but most stock pickers prefer to focus on H share developers.

Jacky Choi, a fund manager at Value Partners, a Hong Kong investment firm, agrees there are bargains lurking in the B market, though he cautions that "you have to be very selective." Mr. Choi has increased the B share weighting of Value Partners' B and H Share Fund to more than 40% from between 30% and 35% last year. His fund returned a mere 1% last year, but that was a much better performance than the B market at large.

While giving more weight at present to B shares, Mr. Choi says he relies on Hong Kong-listed shares for liquidity, in the event he suddenly needs to raise cash to pay investors who want to exit the fund.
外国投资者对B股重燃信心

中国的B股在外国投资者眼中并不太受欢迎，特别是在它们去年的表现普遍令人失望的情况下。但是，一些基金经理正重新燃起对B股的信心。

尽管疑虑重重，他们还是希望能遴选出一些前景看好的股票，以提高今年的投资回报率。中国的B股市场（和以人民币计价的A股不同，它以美元或港元计价）今年迎来了一个令人鼓舞的开端。

去年，深圳市场B股股指下跌19%, 上海市场同类股指重挫近27%。今年以来，深圳B股股指上涨了22%，上海B股股指上涨7.7%--因此中国B股市场的表现超过H股（在香港市场交易的大陆公司股票）。恒生中国企业指数今年迄今为止的涨幅仅为3.8%。

与主要面向中国投资者的A股市场相比，B股市场的规模更小，而且发展更为缓慢。大部分希望从中国经济的迅速增长中获利的外国投资者选择了投资于在美国上市的中国公司股票或者在新加坡和香港等地上市的众多中国企业。

投资B股充斥著各种风险，如市场流动性差、企业违规行为普遍等等。B股的交易常常比较繁琐，而且想要抛出一只表现糟糕的股票非常困难。

此外，全球投资银行已不再把参与B股交易作为投资中国的途径。QFII（合格境外机构投资者）的推出也导致境外投资者对B股市场的热情开始减退。为了提高股市的外国投资规模，中国政府正计划扩大QFII的投资额度。

在这种情况下，大部分股票研究公司并不出具对B股企业的研究报告，这就不足为奇了。而且同一公司的B股价格有时要大大低于其A股和在美国上市的股票价格。

但是，对于一些基金经理来说，正是因为来自投资银行的不屑研究以及差价的存在令他们发现了B股市场的投资潜力。

负责管理Jayhawk China Fund的麦克卡茨(Kent McCarthy)表示，“我们需要重新关注这一领域。”该基金是一家位于美国堪萨斯的对冲基金，基本上只投资于不在美国上市的中国公司。

在过去的两年中，麦克卡茨对B股的投资只占其基金投资的很小比例，主要是因为自从中国政府2001年调整政策，允许中国居民同时投资B股和A股以来，B股与其他类股票的价差有所收窄。他表示，稳健的B股企业现在可能会提供10%至20%的折价，而对于那些股价比A股低70%-80%的股票就要当心了，那些公司可能不太稳定。

并非所有的中国公司都同时发行A股和B股。这两个市场在过去几年中的发展十分无序，因而一些公司选择了只发行其中一类股票。

麦克卡茨青睐的一只股票是全球最大的集装箱制造商之一中国国际海运集装箱(集团)(China International Marine Containers,简称:中集集团)。麦克卡茨称，低成本生产的优势使得该公司在全球经济衰退时期没有像其竞争对手那样遭受重创。他说，该公司是一家重要的全球企业，“在中国要找到一只市场领头羊是很困难的。”

在一定程度上讲，中集集团的股票已经受到投资者的追捧。今年以来，其股价大幅飙升--A股上涨51%，B股上涨65%。但是，其A股价格依然偏高，是公司2004年每股收益的14倍左右。而B股的本益比大约为11倍。

麦克卡茨称，大概15个月以前，他收到了一份称赞中集集团A股值得买进的经纪公司研究报告。他说，这当然不错，可是当A股价格高于B股时，为什么非要购买A股呢？

烟台张裕葡萄酒(Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine)的A股和B股也是如此。该公司是山东省的一家酿酒企业，产品品牌已经有一个多世纪的历史。其B股的本益比大约在16倍左右，而A股的本益比高达26倍。私人资本公司J.P. Morgan Partners正考虑买进烟台张裕葡萄酒母公司10%的股份。

瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)的中国研究业务负责人陈昌华(Vincent Chan表示，由于许多投资者已经失去了对B股的兴趣，一些B股的估价比起那些在香港上市的H股来说吸引力远远大得多。1月底，在香港市场新上市的王朝酒业(Dynasty Fine Wines)股票大受投资者追捧，上市首日飙升39%。

一位分析师认为，与在香港上市的中国食品和饮料公司相比，烟台张裕葡萄酒B股的价格似乎更具吸引力。

在一些情况下，B股完全无人理睬，而在香港上市的同一行业股票却赢得基金经理的关注。例如，一些分析师认为万科企业(China Vanke)拥有良好的企业治理水平和财务基本面，但多数投资者却宁愿关注于H股地产商。

香港投资公司Value Partners的基金经理蔡雅颂(Jacky Choi)赞同B股市场蕴含逢低买入机会的观点，但是他提醒说，选股时一定要非常慎重。他将Value Partners旗下B股和H股基金中B股的权重由去年的30%-35%提高到40%。他的基金去年的回报率只有1%，但是这仍远远胜过整个B股的表现。

Choi称，虽然提高了B股的权重，他还是依赖于香港上市的股票保持资金的流动性，比如说他突然需要筹集资金来偿付那些想要退出基金的投资者。