Short view: will global economy face stagflation?
The textual analysis that is applied to Federal Reserve statements these days would put Jacques Derrida, king of the deconstructionists, to shame. Although the Fed continued to refer to the pace of rate increases as “measured”, its tone was deemed to be more hawkish.
The Fed's comments that “pressures on inflation have picked up” were quickly proved right when yesterday's consumer price index showed a 0.3 per cent monthly rise at the core level. In the immediate aftermath of the data, US Treasury bond yields moved to their highest level in nine months.
The ambiguities in the Fed's statement mean the markets will be at the mercy of the economic data between now and the next Fed meeting in May. “The Fed has done the market no favours by creating so much uncertainty with its statement, leaving the door open for further volatility,” said Stephen Dulake, European credit strategist at JPMorgan.
Meanwhile, expectation of further Fed tightening gave a lift to the dollar, which is staging a mini-rally, having failed to break though the $1.35/�1 level earlier this month. US short-term rates are now three-quarters of a point above eurozone rates, and the gap can only widen.
Back in February, when 10 year Treasury bond yields were hovering around 4 per cent, it looked as if investors were concerned about the growth outlook. With yields now two-thirds of a percentage point higher, investors' focus seems to have switched to inflation.
That might suggest the global growth outlook is rosy. But the data from Europe yesterday make it hard to sustain that view. The Confederation of British Industry survey showed a sharp drop in order books and there was an unexpected fall in the Ifo survey of German business confidence.
That raises the possibility that the world might be facing “stagflation” slow growth and higher inflation. Stagflation is normally bad for almost every kind of asset except index-linked bonds and commodities.
Even the mention of stagflation, however, seems bizarre when a few weeks ago analysts were talking about the “Goldilocks scenario” of strong growth and low inflation. This market confusion suggests the world is at a turning point, and bonds look like being the losers.
短线观点：全球经济会滞胀吗
如今，人们对美联储(Fed)声明的文本分析，会使解构主义之王“雅克?德里达”(Jacques Derrida)感到惭愧。尽管美联储仍把提高利率的速度形容为“有节制的”，但人们还是认为，其语气变得更为强硬了。
美联储有关“通胀压力有所抬头”的评述，很快证明是正确的。昨天美国消费物价数据显示，核心物价水平月度上升0.3%。该数据立即造成美国国债收益率上升至9个月以来的最高水平。
美联储声明的模糊措辞意味着，从现在到美联储5月份召开下一次例会期间，市场将受经济数据的支配。“美联储在声明中制造如此多的不确定性，打开了进一步波动之门，对市场没有任何好处，”JP摩根(JP Morgan)欧洲信贷策略师斯蒂芬?杜雷克(Stephen Dulake)表示。
与此同时，市场预期美联储货币政策将进一步趋紧，这一预期提振了正处于小幅升势的美元，而在本月早些时候，美元未能突破1欧元兑1.35美元的水平。目前美国短期利率比欧元区利率高0.75个百分点，而这种息差只会扩大。
今年2月份，10年期国债债券收益率徘徊在4%左右，当时投资者似乎担心经济增长前景。现在，收益率已升高了三分之二个百分点，投资者的关注重心似乎已转向通胀。
这或许暗示着全球经济增长前景是光明的。但昨天欧洲发布的数据则难以支持上述观点。英国工业联合会(Confederation of British Industry)调查显示订单数量大幅下降。Ifo的调查表明，德国企业信心也出人意料地下跌。
这使得全球面临“滞胀”的可能性加大，也就是低增长高通胀的局面。通常，除了与通涨挂钩的债券和初级商品以外，滞胀对几乎所有类别的资产都不利。
不过，即使提到滞胀也很怪异，因为几周前分析师还在谈论高增长低通胀的“梦幻情形”。这种市场混乱表明，世界正处于一个转折点，而债券看来是输家。
