Staying ahead of the game
The longstanding sibling rivalry between Hong Kong and Shanghai has intensified in recent years. The two cities have vied with each other to claim the crown as China's international financial centre. But which has the upper hand so far? The answer is, undoubtedly, Hong Kong.
Not long ago, however, a number of commentators bet their money on Shanghai while singing swan songs for Hong Kong. True, Hong Kong went through a tough period in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis when the city was gripped by recession and deflation, while Shanghai, with its sleek skyscrapers and modern elevated highways popping up at a dizzying speed, continued to enjoy its long boom.
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Yet despite a supercharged economy, a vast pool of domestic savings, unprecedented pace of wealth creation, and an almost boundless hinterland, Shanghai has failed to overtake Hong Kong. On the contrary, the gap with Hong Kong has widened.
Take the stock market. Shanghai's nascent stock market has suffered violent swings in the past five years. Propelled by a speculative frenzy and super-easy monetary policy, the Shanghai A index soared to its peak at 2,338 points in June 2001, then nosedived, ushering in a prolonged bear market that had wiped out more than half the market value by mid 2005.
Widespread problems in accounting, disclosure, and corporate governance, poor transparency, and the political stalemate over non-tradeable shares shattered investor confidence. While the Shanghai stock market has recently shown signs of coming back to life, many deep-seated structural problems remain. Without further fundamental reforms, it will be a long time before one can expect to see the emergence of a vibrant and well-functioning stock market.
With a market capitalisation of $460bn, Shanghai's equity market remains dwarfed by Hong Kong at more than $1,330bn. Despite overt political pressures forcing companies to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Hong Kong remains the preferred venue for the best and largest Chinese companies, having attracted 350 to list. Recent mega IPOs are testimony to Hong Kong's capacity to handle extremely large and complex equity offerings. The record-beating IPO of ICBC will further cement Hong Kong's status as one of the world's premier markets for raising capital.
One of the factors underpinning Hong Kong's equity market success is a large fund management industry. Hong Kong has attracted scores of international asset managers to set up operations in the territory. Assets under management in Hong Kong have reached $580bn, compared with a paltry $22bn in Shanghai. Hong Kong's sophisticated investor base offers a clear advantage to the still retail-driven Shanghai stock market.
The slow development in China's domestic fund management industry is exacerbated by the failure to undertake pension reforms. Like the rest of the country, Shanghai has yet to put in place a pension system that mobilises savings and generates a higher rate of return to meet the needs of its rapidly ageing population. Unfortunately, a scandal engulfing Shanghai's municipal pension fund might further weaken the political appetite for reform.
A comparison of the banking sectors leads to a strikingly similar conclusion. Shanghai-based banks have a combined asset base of $419bn, trailing far behind Hong Kong in terms of size with assets at $1,029bn. While Hong Kong boasts several world-class banks, those in Shanghai are at best a work in progress.
Mainland banks have shown dramatic improvement in their financial health in recent years, but considerable challenges lie ahead, especially in areas such as credit policies, corporate governance, risk management, IT infrastructure, and revenue diversification.
While Shanghai has enormous potential, its ambition has been hobbled by mainland China's fragile institutions - the underdeveloped legal system, onerous and unpredictable regulations, a complex and punishing tax regime, the heavy and visible hand of government interference and rampant corruption.
By contrast, rule of law, free press, open markets, transparency, unfettered capital mobility and a fully convertible currency are among Hong Kong's core assets.
Don't get me wrong. I do not mean to write off Shanghai, nor to underestimate the competitive challenges facing Hong Kong. One thing is pretty clear: the future for both Hong Kong and Shanghai is tied to China.
Both critically hinge on China's overall progress in structural reforms, institutional build-up and, importantly, a more liberal regime of capital movement and open markets. For the time being, however, Hong Kong is the clear winner.Fred Hu is a managing director at Goldman Sachs and professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
谁能摘取中国金融中心桂冠
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年来，香港和上海之间为时已久的手足之争已愈演愈烈。这两座城市为摘得中国国际金融中心的桂冠而你争我夺。但到目前为止，是谁占到了上风呢？答案无疑是：香港。
然而，就在不久前，一些评论人士将资金押注于上海，同时为香港唱起了挽歌。诚然，在亚洲金融危机之后，香港遭遇了经济衰退和通货紧缩，经历了一段艰难岁月；而上海却继续享受着长时间的繁荣，亮闪闪的摩天大楼和现代高架公路拔地而起，其速度之快，令人感到晕眩。
然而，尽管有着动力超强的经济、庞大的国内储蓄、前所未有的财富创造速度，以及几乎漫无边际的腹地，上海仍未能赶上香港。相反，它与香港之间的差距有所扩大。
以股市为例。处于初创阶段的上海股市，在过去5年中经历了急剧的波动。2001年6月，在投机狂潮和极其宽松的货币政策的推动下，上海A股指数飙升至2338点的峰值水平，但随后急转直下，步入了漫长的熊市，截至2005年年中，上海股市市值损失了半数以上。
会计、信息披露和公司治理等方面普遍存在的问题，较低的透明度，以及非流通股方面的政策僵化，打击了投资者信心。虽然上海股市近来显示出复苏的迹象，但一些深层次的结构性问题依旧存在。如果没有进一步的根本性改革举措，需要经过很长时间，人们才能看到一个充满活力、运转良好的股市出现。
上海股市市值为4600亿美元，与香港逾1.33万亿美元的市值相比，仍相形见绌。尽管明显存在政治方面的压力，迫使公司在上海证券交易所(Shanghai Stock Exchange)上市，但香港仍是最佳质地、最大规模中国企业的首选上市地点，目前已吸引了350家公司在此上市。近来数起超大规模的首次公开发行(IPO)，就足以证明香港有能力处理规模巨大、操作复杂的证券发行。工行创纪录的IPO规模，将进一步巩固香港作为全球首选筹资市场之一的地位。
庞大的基金管理行业是维系香港股市成功的因素之一。香港吸引了很多国际资产管理公司来此开展业务。在香港，管理下的资产规模已达到5800亿美元，而上海仅为220亿美元。相对于仍以散户为主导的上海股市，香港完备的投资者基础，使其获得了一个明显的优势。
由于未能进行养老金改革，使中国国内基金管理行业的缓慢发展状况有所恶化。与该国其它地区一样，上海也尚未建立动用储蓄资金，并能获得较高回报的养老金体系，以应对人口迅速老龄化的需求。不幸的是，一起将上海市社保基金卷入其中的丑闻，可能会进一步削弱政府对于养老金改革的兴趣。
对比两地银行业，也会得出一个非常相似的结论。上海的银行资产总计4190亿美元，远远低于香港的1.029万亿美元。香港夸耀自己拥有数家世界级银行，而上海的银行充其量也只是处于发展之中。
近年来，内地银行的财务状况有了明显的改善，但未来仍面临着巨大挑战，尤其是在信贷政策、公司治理、风险管理、IT基础设施和收入多样化等领域。
尽管上海的发展潜力巨大，但中国内地脆弱的体制一直制约着其远大理想的实现，其中包括落后的法律体系，繁琐且充满变数的监管规定，复杂而严苛的税收机制，严重的政府干预（看得见的手），以及猖獗的腐败之风等。
相比之下，香港的核心资产在于法制健全、新闻自由、市场开放、公开透明、资本自由流动以及货币完全可兑换。
不要误解我。我的意思不是认为上海一无是处，也没有低估香港所面临的竞争挑战。有一点非常清楚：香港和上海的未来都系于中国。
两地都严重依赖中国在各方面取得进步，包括结构性改革和体制建设，而更重要的是，建立一个更为自由的资本流动机制和更加开放的市场。但从目前来看，香港优势明显。
胡祖六是高盛(Goldman Sachs)董事总经理、清华大学教授。
