Twelve Steps to Investment Peace
Yes, the stock market's bears are growling. But don't panic. You can keep your spirits up when the market indexes are down.
I've learned over the past 32 years that the euphoria of rising markets can be just as deadly to some investors as a night at the corner saloon can be to an alcoholic.
You can't beat the feelings of watching your portfolio rise 20% or 30% in a year. It's great. You're the smartest guy in the room. You're witty, you're sexy, you're getting richer every day. You're at the top of your game.
Then, wham! The market takes a dive, like it started doing a couple of weeks ago with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 400 points in just three days. Suddenly, you're frozen and can do nothing. Maybe worse, you try to buy your way out of the selloff. But nothing you do makes a difference. Like hangovers, bear markets can come overnight and hang around for a long, long time. And they feel just as bad.
Who wants to live, or invest, that way? I sure didn't. I needed to break my up-down investing cycle, so I developed my own 12-step program that works for bull-market addicts just the way that other addicts have been aided by similar recovery plans.
Practice these principles and you, too, could be enjoying a sense of peace you'll never find by obsessing over the market's daily roller-coaster ride. (You'll be richer, too.)
Step 1: Admit you're powerless over the market, and your portfolio is unmanageable.
You and just about everyone else were just certain 2005 was going to be a great year for the market. In January, Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs was telling its well-heeled clients that the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, then at 1190, would close out the year at 1325. That could still happen, of course, but on Friday it closed at 1152. Bulls are fun. But bears bring anxiety and fears. Market cycles are totally unpredictable, and no one knows where the market is headed over the next few months or years.
Step 2: Think in decades, not in quarters.
Yes, in the long run, markets go up. But short-term they're fickle, volatile and irrational. And they go down. Forget market timing, you'll lose. Dalbar, a Boston research firm, has followed mutual-fund investors for 19 years and found that market timers lost an average of 3.29% annually while dollar-cost averagers made 6.8% a year. Lesson: Always bet on the long term.
Step 3: Turn to a "higher power," the market itself.
The best way to make sure your investments go up over the long term is a well-diversified asset-allocation strategy that mimics the market itself: Buy index funds that automatically adjust their holdings for you.
Step 4: Save 10%.
Think of this latest market dip as yet another huge wake-up call. So let me repeat the warning: If you aren't putting away 10 cents out of every dollar you make, you're spending too much and you are not saving enough for retirement.
Step 5: Focus on your portfolio.
Whether you're a retiree, boomer or college kid, most of your portfolio's long-term performance depends on your asset allocations, not the specific funds you pick. For instance, the No-Brainer Portfolio -- set up by William Bernstein , a neurologist, money manager and author -- returned about 14% last year, with an equal mix of four Vanguard index funds: S&P 500; Small-Cap; European Stock and the Total Bond Market.
Step 6: Low turnovers lower your taxes and raise your returns.
Actively managed domestic stock funds turn over their entire portfolios more than 100% every year. The manager's transaction costs reduce your returns and increase your taxes. Buy funds with turnover ratios under 30%.
Step 7: Buy only no-load funds.
Never pay a broker's commission. There are 1,057 no-loads among the 6,090 mutual funds in Morningstar's database. There's always a no-load that's as good or better than one with commissions. For example, according to Morningstar's after-tax database, the T. Rowe Price Equity-Income Fund was up 6.69% annually for the five-year period ended March 31, while the Investment Company of America Fund, which charges investors a 5.75% load, barely broke even with a mere 0.05% average return. You do the math.
Step 8: Keep it simple.
You need far fewer funds than you probably think. Studies suggest that 12 funds are enough for maximum risk protection, but when it comes to actual portfolio building, it varies. Some investment advisers recommend as few as six. Try keeping it to 10 or fewer.
Step 9: Stop playing with your portfolio.
Rebalancing a well-diversified portfolio more than once a year is a waste of your time and money. Behavioral-finance professors Terry Odean and Brad Barber researched 66,400 Merrill Lynch accounts over a seven-year period and concluded that "the more you trade the less you earn."
Step 10: Ignore the news.
Don't invest according to what you read or see in the news. Buying or selling on breaking news is a loser's game. Markets are super-efficient; they react instantaneously to news, before an individual investor has booted up his computer or dialed his broker.
Step 11: Don't believe people who "beat" the market.
Just as an alcoholic shouldn't hang around the local saloon, a recovering bull-market addict shouldn't swap too many stories with investors who brag that they are way, way up when the market is way, way down. At best, they are deluding themselves; at worst they are lying. Either way, don't let yourself go off the wagon and make more sucker investments.
Step 12: There's life beyond the market.
Remember, even in a bear market, someone's buying. You may be powerless over the market, but with steady savings, dollar-cost averaging, index funds and annual rebalancing, you will have plenty of power over your own portfolio and your life. The theme of the original 12-step program is "the joy of living." Same here. 保持平和投资心态的 12 准则
是的，股市之熊在咆哮。但是不要恐慌，在股指下挫的时候，你可以保持良好的心态。
我从过去 32 年的经验中学到：对一些投资者而言，对股市上涨兴高采烈就像街角酒吧的夜晚对酒鬼一样致命。
看著你的投资组合每年增长 20% 或 30% 的那种感觉令人无法形容。这种感觉棒极了。你是房间里面最聪明的家伙。你机智、性感、一日富过一日。你成为这场游戏的王者。
然后，突然之间，市场开始跳水，就像道琼斯指数在三天内下跌超过 400 点的那种情形。转瞬之间，你被套牢了，对眼前这一切无能为力。也许更糟糕的是，你试图抛售股票解套。但是无论你怎么做都于事无补。熊市会一夜之间来到，并徘徊很长一段时间。这真是糟透了。
谁想这样生活或投资？我肯定不想。我需要打破我的涨跌投资循环，所以我创造了我自己的 12 步准则，这一准则对牛市嗜瘾者管用，就像一些类似的康复计划对其他瘾君子们的帮助一样。
实践这些准则将给你带来宁静，这是沉浸在市场每日惊心动魄的涨跌中的人所永远体会不到的。
第一步：承认你在市场面前无能为力，你的投资组合是无法掌控的。
你和其他每个人都曾经确信 2005 年一片光明。今年 1 月份，华尔街投行高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 对阔绰的客户表示，标准普尔 500 指数年底将能达到 1325 点，当时该指数位于 1190 点。这当然可能发生，但是该指数近来却位于 1150 点左右。牛市让人开心。但是熊市让人焦虑和恐惧。市场周期完全不可预测，没有人知道市场在今后几个月或数年的走向。
第二步：著眼于数十年，而不是几个季度。
是的，市场长期将走高。但是短期则变幻无常、摇摆不定、毫无理性。市场会下跌。忘记择机入市吧，你将会亏钱。波士顿研究机构 Dalbar 对共同基金投资者跟踪了 19 年的时间，它发现时时关注市场的人平均每年亏损 3.29% ，而这段期间的平均成本效益为 6.8% 。教训：永远进行长期投资。
第三步：求助于“更高一级的力量”，即市场本身。
确保你的投资长期增值的最佳方法是建立一个与市场本身相似的充分多样化的资产分配战略：购买自动调整头寸的指数基金。
第四步：储蓄 10% 。
将最新市场的下跌看作一次新的警钟吧。让我重申下面这个警告：如果你没有将 10% 的所得存起来，那么你花费的过多了，你将不会攒够养老金。
第五步：关注投资组合。
不管你是退休，正当壮年还是上学，你的投资组合的长期表现主要取决于你的资产配置，而不是你选择哪个基金。比如，神经科医生、货币经理和作家威廉姆?伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 设立的 No-Brainer 投资组合每年投资回报率大约为 14% ，其投资组合由四个权重相同的 Vanguard 指数基金组成：标准普尔 500 ，小型股，欧洲股票和整个债券市场。
第六步：低周转率降低纳税额，增加收入。
积极管理的国内股票基金每年的周转率超过 100% 。经理的交易成本减少了你的收入，增加了纳税额。购买周转率低于 30% 的基金。
第七步：只购买无佣金基金。
永远不要向经纪商支付佣金。在 Morningstar 的数据库里面的 6,090 个共同基金中，有 1,057 个无佣金基金。总有一些无佣金基金与佣金基金的表现一样好或好于佣金基金。比如，根据 Morningstar 的税后数据库， T. Rowe Price Equity-Income Fund 在截至 3 月 31 日的 5 年中，每年平均增长 6.69% ，而向投资者收取 5.75% 佣金的 Investment Company of America Fund 平均年回报率仅为 0.05% 。你自己算一下吧。
第八步：尽量简单
你需要的基金数量远远小于你认为需要的数量。研究显示， 12 个基金足以防范最大的风险，但是在实际的资产组合中，数量会有所变化。一些投资顾问推荐至少 6 个基金。尽量保持 10 个或更少的基金。
第九步：不要摆弄你的投资组合。
一年内对一个充分多样化的投资组合调整超过一次是对你的时间和金钱的浪费。行为金融教授特瑞?奥迪恩 (Terry Odean) 和布莱德?巴布尔 (Brad Barber) 调查了美林 (Merrill Lynch)66,400 个帐户过去七年的表现，得出的结论时是“你交易的越多，挣的越少。”
第十步：不要受消息左右。
不要根据你看到或听到的新闻作出投资决定。根据突发新闻买卖股票注定要失败。市场具有超级的效率；市场在散户投资者启动电脑或者打电话给经纪商前就已经对消息做出瞬间反应。
第十一步：不要相信“跑赢”大盘的投资者。
就像一个酒鬼不应该在一个当地酒吧附近闲逛，康复中的牛市嗜瘾者不应该与吹嘘在市场一路下跌时其回报一路走高的投资交谈过多。往好了说，他们在哄骗自己，往坏了说，他们在撒谎。不论哪种情况，不要偏听偏信，做出更愚蠢的投资决定。
第十二步：市场之外有天地。
记住，即使在熊市，也有人在买股票。你可能对市场无能为力，但是通过稳定的储蓄、平均成本效益、指数基金和年度头寸调整，你对你自己的投资组合和你的生活将有足够的支配力。最初的 12 步准则的主题是“生活的欢乐”。现在也是如此。
