Political Winds Aid Dollar
Uncertainty on EU Charter,
Blair's Fate Buoys Currency
Despite Large U.S. Deficits
PARIS -- Defying expectations, the dollar is holding its own. A big reason is political uncertainty that has put pressure on the dollar's chief Western rivals, especially the euro, pound and Canadian dollar.
"Recent days have seen politics drive currency markets as much -- or more -- than economics," said Rebecca Patterson , a currency strategist at J.P. Morgan.
In U.K. general elections last week, Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour Party won a third consecutive term but came away with a smaller than-anticipated margin of victory, raising questions over how long Mr. Blair will stay in office. North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, holds key elections later this month, and in a desperate attempt to bolster the ruling Social Democrats' left wing, the party has turned antibusiness. Late last month, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's ruling coalition fell apart; no one is sure how long his new one will survive.
On May 29, France holds a referendum on whether to approve the proposed European Union constitution. How the French will vote is touch and go. Following a slew of surveys forecasting a "no" vote, recent polls now indicate a oui by razor-thin majorities. Even so, a lot of hot money is still betting on a rejection. In the short run, that could hurt some central European currencies that would be viewed as less likely to eventually join the euro if the constitution is rejected. It also could hurt the Turkish lira as rejection would dim the chances of Turkey's eventually joining the EU. Rejection also could hurt the euro in the long run if it were viewed as a sign Europe is likely to pursue less integration in the future.
Across the Atlantic, Canada's ruling Liberal Party is mired in a kickback scandal. To stay afloat, the party two weeks ago cut a budget deal with the small, left-leaning New Democratic Party that doesn't augur well for future fiscal discipline. The Canadian dollar has fallen more than 4% against its U.S. counterpart since mid-March and there isn't much end to the turmoil in sight. After recent shouting matches in Parliament, Prime Minister Paul Martin said yesterday a vote of confidence in his administration would be held May 19. Who said Canadians are boring?
All this uncertainty has meant -- and is likely to continue to mean -- increased volatility. Take the EU constitution issue. Propelled by polls predicting a French "no" vote, the euro, between April 13 and 29, zoomed 4.9% higher to 4.29 Polish zlotys. Since then, the euro has fallen 2.8% to 4.18 zlotys as surveys began indicating growing odds of a French acceptance.
But nimble investors with strong stomachs play the market, analysts say. Ms. Patterson at J.P. Morgan, for instance, recommends buying euros and selling Swiss francs if France votes to adopt the constitution. Because Switzerland isn't an EU member, speculators have used it as a hedge against a possible "no" vote. She also advises investors who expect a "yes" vote to start collecting Turkish lira again.
Meanwhile, Ms. Patterson is taking the Canadian brouhaha in stride, contending that the Canadian dollar will remain buoyed by strong commodity prices, the possibility of higher Canadian interest rates and overall U.S. dollar weakness. With Canada's currency changing hands at about 1.25 to the U.S. dollar, she said: "If you are a medium-term investor, these are good levels at which to buy Canadian dollars."
Steven Englander, chief currency strategist for the Americas at Barclays Bank, is less positive. Calling the Canadian dollar "a political story, but one laid on top of a currency overshoot," he sees the Canadian dollar weaker in six months at 1.30 to the U.S. dollar.
As for the pound, Britain's currency has gone from super strong to just strong, and many analysts see it receding further to about $1.80 by year end from its current $1.8822. Noting Britain's "gaping budget deficit" and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown's "ambitious spending plans," David Abramson, chief European strategist at BCA Research, said, "the most likely outcome is more spending and higher taxes, and that's usually not good for growth." He also predicts the pound could fall against the euro later this year or next, falling to 0.74 to the euro from its current 0.6838.
While all these political winds may bode well for the dollar against the major Western currencies, there is the huge question of China, which many have speculated could revalue the yuan under pressure from the U.S. and the EU. A rise in the yuan against the dollar is expected to result, and that could also lift most Asian currencies.
Rumors, reports and predictions of when China will move, and by how much, have become the daily fare of global currency markets, the latest being an article in China's "People's Daily" newspaper yesterday saying that China will announce a revaluation next week. Traders "immediately sold dollars and bought whatever they could that had a Far Eastern ring to it," says Andrew Busch, global currency strategist at Harris Nesbitt. "Then a Chinese central-bank official denied it, and the market ran the other way. All within an hour, all went home with less profits, hopefully a little wiser."
And, of course, there remain the big challenges of U.S. budget and current-account deficits facing the dollar and the U.S. economy, which make betting on politics in foreign-exchange markets even more risky. "Political concerns may be helping the dollar right now, but they are unlikely to last long enough to overwhelm the larger dollar dilemma," Ms. Patterson said.
地缘政治风波支撑美元汇率
出乎人们意料的是，美元汇率坚守阵地。一个主要原因是政局发展及其不确定性给美元的主要西方对手，尤其是欧元、英镑和加元造成了压力。
JP摩根(J.P. Morgan)的外汇策略师巴特森(Rebecca Patterson)表示，近日来，政治因素对市场的影响力和经济因素相仿，甚至更大。
在英国上周四举行的大选中，首相布莱尔(Tony Blair)率领的工党取得了三连胜，但是得票率胜出幅度低于人们的预期。德国人口最多的北莱因-威斯特法伦州本月晚些时候将举行选举；为了赢得左翼选民的支持，并利用当前仅次于大萧条(Depression)时的高失业率所造成的社会不安定感，执政的社会民主党掉转矛头对企业界发起了攻击。上月末，意大利总理贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)领导的执政联盟分崩离析；没人能够确定他新拼凑的执政联盟能存活多久。
5月29日，法国将举行欧盟宪法公决，投票结果即将见出分晓。在一连串的调查结果预计法国公民将投反对票之后，最近的民意测验表明持赞成意见的人数达到了微弱多数。尽管如此，许多游资仍寄希望于宪法将遭否决。短期看，这可能会损害一些中欧货币和土耳其里拉；从长期来看，它将不利于欧元或欧元区资产。
在大西洋另一边，加拿大执政的自由党正卷入回扣丑闻。为了稳住阵脚，它在两周前与规模较小的左翼政党新民主党达成了预算协议。该协议呼吁放弃削减企业税的计划，以此来资助加大的社会和环境支出，这对未来的财政状况似乎有弊无利。由于议会中各政党争斗激烈，而且周三晚间的一份动议要求加拿大总理马丁(Paul Martin)下台（马丁周三表示对其政府的信任度投票将在5月19日举行），加元兑美元自从3月中旬以来已经下跌了4%以上。
与此同时，在经济增长减缓、中国纺织品进口激增的形势下，美国和欧洲正在不断向中国施压，要求其重估人民币汇率。美国参议院威胁说，如果白宫不与中国政府商讨汇率问题，将对中国出口到美国的所有商品加征27.5%的关税。欧盟委员会(European Commission)展开的一项类似调查可能导致其对中国纺织品实施进口限制。在过去几周，日圆汇率多次被预计人民币即将升值的外汇交易员推高，直到中国无所作为之后才有所回落。
投资者能够从这些政治因素中获益吗？答案是肯定的。但是，他们的行动最好要敏捷一些，而且要能承受市场的大幅波动。
以欧盟宪法问题为例。受民意测验显示法国人将对欧盟宪法投反对票推动，欧元兑波兰货币兹罗提的汇率在4月13日到29日间上涨了4.9%，达到4.29兹罗提。此后，随著调查开始显示法国人赞成欧盟宪法的居多，欧元下跌2.8%至4.17兹罗提。巴特森说，“如果法国人最终通过了欧盟宪法，我会买入欧元，卖出瑞士法郎”，这是因为瑞士不是欧盟成员国。投机人士一直在利用瑞士法郎作为对冲欧盟宪法遭否决这一风险的工具。巴特森还建议预计宪法将获通过的投资者开始再次买进土耳其里拉。
同时，她正大量增持加元，认为它仍将受到商品价格强劲、国内利率可能上调以及美元总体疲软的推动。她说，在当前1美元兑1.25加元左右的情况下，“如果你是一名中线投资者，这是买入加元的合理水平。”
巴克莱银行(Barclays Bank)的美国首席策略师英格兰德(Steven Englander)的态度要略显悲观一些。他认为，政治因素正主导加元走势，但还没有使其反应过头。他预计，加元兑美元6个月后将走软至1美元兑1.30加元。他从自由党的预算让步中看出，不管加拿大今后拥有什么样的政府，它都将是由不同政见党派组成的联合政府，加拿大过去10年财政政策的保守基调将会消失殆尽。
英镑汇率的超级强势已经趋缓，许多分析师预计，到年底英镑兑美元汇率将从现在的1.8822美元进一步回落至1.80 美元左右。BCA Research的首席欧洲策略师阿布拉姆森(David Abramson)说，英国庞大的预算赤字及现任财政大臣、可能成为首相的布朗(Gordon Brown)雄心勃勃的支出计划使得英国财政政策很可能出现支出扩大、税收提高的局面，这通常对经济增长不利。英镑兑美元和欧元同时走软是很少见的，但阿布拉姆森称这种情形可能发生在今年晚些时候或明年，欧元兑英镑也将由现在的0.6838英镑升至0.74英镑。
中国对美元来说是一个政治不利因素。这是因为，几乎所有的经济学家都预计人民币的最终升值将提升多数亚洲货币兑美元的汇率。如果所有人都持有这种预期，那么真实情况可能就并非如此了。
关于中国何时调整人民币汇率及调整幅度的传言、报导和预测已经成为全球外汇市场每天的焦点。最新的消息是中国《人民日报》昨天的一篇文章称中国将于下周宣布人民币重估。Harris Nesbitt的全球外汇策略师布斯奇(Andrew Busch)说，文章发表后，交易员们立即抛售美元，买入任何能够与远东有关联的货币。随后一位中国央行官员否认了这则报导，市场又开始反向而行。所有这一切都发生在一个小时之内，所有的人都无法盈利。
与其小心翼翼地躲避这些政治雷区，投资者还不如把眼光放长远一些。尽管昨天的数据显示美国3月份贸易逆差收窄，但人们仍然预计，受到美国贸易和预算双重赤字的打击，美元还会进一步走低。
JP摩根的巴特森说，政治因素眼下可能有助于提振美元，但其影响不足以长到消除美元的更大困境。美国仍将无法凭藉外国投资来弥补经常项目赤字。
