The Market Violates Murphy's Law
STOCK-MARKET BULLS are a tenacious bunch. Good economic news more tightly rationed these days? No problem. They'll feed on something else.
Last week, a mere absence of bad news proved enough to marshal the herd, and to egg on its most spirited charge in at least six months.
It was an impressive reversal from the week before, when apprehension about hedge-fund losses caused the major stock benchmarks to drop to within a hair of their 2005 lows. But the bond market behaved. And no hedge fund went down in flames spectacularly enough to threaten to singe the market. Oil slipped below $47 a barrel, down 18% from its April high. Data pointing to benign inflation assuaged fears that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates more aggressively. Everything that could go wrong...didn't.
In the ensuing sigh of relief, each of the major stock indexes strung together rallies of at least four consecutive days and racked up their biggest weekly gains since the November election. A shallow pullback Friday pointed more to profit-taking than buyers' remorse, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week at 10,472, up 332 points, or 3.3%, and is now in the middle of its 2005 trading range. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 35 points, or 3.1% to 1189.
Technology stocks consolidated their recent break from the pack with their biggest weekly jump since August. The Nasdaq Composite Index rode an as-yet-unbroken streak of six straight winning sessions to close up 70 points, or 3.5%, at 2046. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks saw just its third winning week in the last 10, but it made this one count, rising 27 points or 4.7% to 609.
The major stock benchmarks are still underwater for the year, but the depth of their despair was no longer quite as daunting. The Dow is down 2.9%, the Nasdaq 5.9% and the S&P 500 1.9% from where they began 2005.
The rally lifted the S&P 500 from within striking distance of its April lows to not quite 3% from its recent peak -- testament to the tightness of its trading range this year -- and sets off the prowl for the next catalyst that can lift stocks out of its trading range.
"But when you think about it, has the fundamental picture changed that much?" asks Stephen Sachs, Rydex Investments' director of trading. "We're still facing the same headwinds of rising rates and slowing profit growth; growth margins are still hard to maintain; and earnings are still largely driven by cost-cutting measures, as opposed to an expansion in demand."
Encouraged by the aging bull's prowess, the hopeful camp offered up assorted sentiment indicators that pointed to lingering skepticism -- evidence, they say, that more money can still be plowed into stocks to extend this current run. In truth, market sentiment is so erratic these days that support for both bull and bear cases can quite easily be found. This suggests sentiment is hardly at enough of an extreme to propel moves too far beyond the current trading range.
Case in point: In the week ended Thursday, investors extracted from stock mutual funds about $433 million, a remarkable withdrawal when viewed against stocks' surge. It was the first time in two-and-a-half years that a weekly withdrawal topped $100 million in a week when the S&P 500 gained more than 20 points, says Jason Goepfert, president of trading-research firm SentimenTrader.com. Whenever this has happened in recent years, the S&P pushed higher the following week three out of four times and tacked on an average of 17 points.
But if such doubts provide a proverbial 'wall of worry' for stocks to scale, it may turn out to be a short climb. There are already signs that small investors have started to pile into this rally, which scornful institutional types believe signals the proximity of a short-term top. Odd-lot purchases of less than 100 shares added up to $18 million on Wednesday, Goepfert notes. It was a one-day haul second only to that from April 12, just before stocks began their mid-April slide.
Signs from the options market also do not auger well for a extended surge. Jay Shartsis, director of option trading at R.F. Lafferty & Co., examined S&P 100 options and found that prices of slightly out-of-the-money June puts were nearly 4.5 times that for corresponding calls. Those puts had been six times pricier than calls just a week earlier. While this demand for portfolio insurance is pronounced, it has quickly begun to moderate as investors began hoping for the best, or at least had quit worrying about the worst.
“墨菲定律”在股市失灵了
那些股市看涨派的乐观情绪真是坚如磐石。良好的经济消息近来不是愈加稀少了吗？别怕，这些人又从别处发现了维持自己良好信心的东西。
上周，仅仅是坏消息的缺乏就足以使这些股市看涨派闻风而动了，他们进行了至少是六个月以来的最大胆买盘。
股市上周的走势与前一周形成了鲜明对比，当时对冲基金的投资亏损导致主要股指大幅下挫，距2005年低点相距咫尺。但债券市场却表现良好。对冲基金没有采取足以威胁该市场稳定的举动。油价跌至了每桶47美元以下，较4月份高点下跌了18%。由于通货膨胀率数据尚佳，人们对美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)将不得不以更大力度加息的担心得以缓解。任何有可能出现的不利情况都未发生。
鉴于紧张局面已明显缓和，美国主要股指都至少实现了连续四个交易日的上涨，均创下了去年11月总统大选以来最大的单周涨幅。股市上周五的小幅回落更多是出于投资者获利回吐的原因，而不是因为这些人开始后悔自己此前的投资决策，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周收于10,472点，上涨332点，涨幅3.3%，该指数目前处于其2005年波动区间的中段。标准普尔500指数上周上涨了35点，至1189点，涨幅3.1%。
科技类股在最近突破阻力位后处境更加稳固，上周的涨幅创去年8月份以来的最大水平。那斯达克综合指数连续6个交易日收盘上扬，上周累计上涨70点，收于2046点，涨幅3.5%。罗素2000指数上周实现了过去10周以来第三次上涨，上涨27点，收于609点，涨幅达4.7%。
各主要股指虽然仍低于年初时的水平，但下跌幅度却已显著缩小。道琼斯指数目前较年初时低2.9%，那斯达克综合指数低5.9%，标准普尔500指数低1.9%。
受此次上涨推动，标准普尔500指数从距其4月份低点仅一步之遥的地方升至了距其近期高点不足3%的点位，并为该指数下一步突破其今年以来的波动区间打下了基础。
但Rydex Investments的交易负责人斯蒂芬?萨克斯(Stephen Sachs)提醒人们注意，市场基本面并未有多大改变。他说，目前仍面临著利率不断上调以及利润增速不断减缓的不利局面，经济增长率依然难以维继，企业的利润增长很大程度上依旧是受成本削减的推动，而不是因为市场需求的扩大。
因推动股市上涨的力量经久不衰而受到鼓舞，那些股市看涨派举出了各种衡量投资者人气的指标，以此向依旧持怀疑态度的人表明，目前的股市仍然有上涨空间。事实上，近来的市场人气是如此多变，股市看涨派和股市看跌派都能很容易地找到支持自己观点的证据。这表明，目前的市场人气并不足以使股指显著脱离目前的波动区间。
请看下面这个事例：在截至上周四的一周内，投资者赎回了价值约4.33亿美元的股票共同基金，在股市大幅上涨的情况下出现这种现象确实值得关注。交易研究公司SentimenTrader.com的总裁詹森?戈普弗(Jason Goepfert)说，在标准普尔500指数一周上涨超过20点的情况下股票共同基金的周赎回额超过了1亿美元，这种情况还是两年半以来首次发生。近年来每当出现这种情况，标准普尔500指数在随后一周出现上涨的几率是四分之三，平均每次上涨17点。
但如果这种反常现象对股市是个不祥之兆，那么目前的股市上扬可能最终证明是短暂的。已有迹象显示小投资者开始参与到了推动此轮股市上扬的行列中来，而机构投资者却将此视为股市已接近近期顶点的标志。戈普弗指出，上周三单笔购买量不超过100股的零股交易总额已经达到了1,800万美元，创下了4月12日以来的最高水平，而股市4月中旬以来的下滑正是从那天开始的。
期权市场的表现也不支持股市将继续大幅上扬的判断。R.F. Lafferty & Co.的期权交易负责人杰伊?沙特希斯(Jay Shartsis)研究了标准普尔100股指期权后发现，六月看跌价外期权的价格将近是六月看涨价外期权的4.5倍。而仅仅一周前前者的价格还是后者的6倍。虽然人们对投资组合进行套期保值的需求是显而易见的，但这种需求已开始迅速减缓，因为投资者的乐观情绪已有增强，至少他们不再担心最怀的情况发生。
人们认为股市具备更多上涨动力也是有其理由的。有人认为，造成股市上周上涨的一个因素是，人们猜测Fed很快会表示将终止其紧缩的货币政策。人们一般认为Fed在今年年底之前将会继续上调短期利率，但这并未阻止交易员们预计或希望Fed将发出加息周期即将终止的暗示。
研究格林斯潘的人士将继续热烈讨论这一猜测是否正确，但出现这一猜测本身就似乎表明，市场急于找到一个使股指脱离其狭窄波动区间的动力。虽然上周公布的生产者价格指数高于预期，工业产值数据出现转弱迹象，而领先经济指标也连续第四次下跌，但股市依然大幅上涨，上述猜测的出现或许能为此提供一种解释。
