Beijing cools renminbi hopes
Andrew Balls in Washington China's central bank has moved to cool expectations of a further revaluation of the renminbi, insisting that last week's 2.1 per cent increase against the dollar had been calculated to leave the currency at a “reasonable and balanced” level.
In a “solemn declaration” that appeared to reflect worries about possible speculative capital inflows, the People's Bank of China said the revaluation and simultaneous scrapping of the dollar peg were initial moves in reforming its currency regime. It said: “This certainly does not mean that the 2 per cent adjustment of the renminbi is a first step that will be followed by further adjustment.” Many investors and analysts have seen last week's renminbi appreciation, which was much smaller than the US and other trading partners had demanded, as a mere prelude to a more substantial but gradual revaluation.
Zhou Xiaochuan, People's Bank governor, reinforced such expectations on Saturday with remarks to Chinese state television aimed at explaining the “core content” of the revaluation and rate regime reform.
“We have made an initial adjustment to the exchange rate level of 2 per cent,” said Mr Zhou, who is widely believed to have pushed for a greater revaluation than was unveiled last week.
However, the central bank insisted that Mr Zhou had meant Thursday's revaluation was only an initial step in reform of the exchange rate regime. The bank blamed foreign media for “creating misunderstanding” on the issue, but its belated attempt to recast Mr Zhou's remarks is likely to fuel talk of disagreement between the governor and other Chinese leaders about renminbi policy.
The People's Bank statement also adds considerable weight to warnings by Chinese academics against assumptions of a more significant renminbi appreciation against the dollar.
It will cause concern among US manufacturers who have demanded a Chinese revaluation of up to 40 per cent to address what they say is the unfair trade advantage created by an undervalued currency.
The US Treasury yesterday declined to comment on the central bank's statement, sticking to its line that the new currency arrangements allowed for a significant appreciation over time.
Before last week's announcement, the Treasury, in discreet private contacts, told Beijing that a revaluation of at least 10 per cent would be needed to prevent protectionist legislation in Congress.
But after much financial diplomacy the Treasury does not now want to engage in a public sparring match with Beijing.
The central bank statement is unlikely to end expectations of further renminbi appreciation. In Singapore yesterday, one-year non-deliverable dollar forwards instruments that allow bets on non-freely-convertible currencies traded at levels implying a rise from its post-revaluation Rmb8.11 to the dollar to Rmb7.735 in a year's time.
On China's central bank-dominated foreign exchange market, the renminbi ended slightly weaker at 8.1099 to the dollar, down from Monday's close of 8.1097.Staying with the greenback, Page 2
中国对人民币升值预期降温
中国央行已采取行动给人民币进一步升值预期降温，央行坚持认为，上周人民币兑美元2.1%的升值幅度，是它根据汇率“合理均衡”水平测算出来的。
中国人民银行在一份“郑重声明”中表示，人民币升值且同时放弃盯住美元的汇率政策，是中国货币政策改革的初始步骤。这份声明似乎反映了对投机性资本可能流入中国的担忧。央行表示：“(这)并不是指人民币汇率第一步调整2%，事后还会有进一步的调整。”许多分析师和投资者都将上周的人民币升值视为只是一个前奏，以后还会逐步升值。上周人民币的升值幅度比美国和其它贸易伙伴此前所要求的幅度小得多。
中国人民银行行长周小川周六在中国中央电视台的讲话进一步强化了这种预期。他的讲话旨在解释人民币升值和货币政策改革的“核心内容”。
“我们已经将汇率水平进行了2%的初始调整，”周先生说。人们广泛认为，周先生力促人民币进行比上周幅度更大的升值。
但中国央行坚持说，周先生的意思是，周四的升值只是汇率形成机制改革的初始步骤。央行指责国外媒体在此问题上“制造误解”，但央行试图在事过数日后重新解释周先生的讲话，可能引起央行行长和其他中国领导人在人民币政策问题上有分歧的揣测。
央行的声明还使中国学术界人士的警告增加了很大分量。这些人士警告说，要提防人民币对美元更大幅度升值的各种假设。
中国央行的这份声明将引起美国制造商的关切，它们要求中国将人民币升值多达40%，以解决它们所称的、因人民币低估而造成的不公平贸易优势。
美国财政部周四拒绝对中国央行的声明置评，但严守它的立场，即随着时间推移，新的汇率制度使大幅升值成为可能。
在中国上周宣布人民币升值前，美国财政部曾在谨慎的私下接触中告诉中国政府，要想阻止美国国会的贸易保护主义立法，人民币至少需要升值 10%。
但在经历了很长一段时间的金融外交后，美国财政部现在不愿与中国政府陷入公开对抗。美国的金融外交，旨在强调更具弹性的汇率制度对中国与全球贸易体系的好处。
中国央行的声明，不太可能结束人民币将进一步升值的预期。在新加坡，无本金交割一年期美元合约周二的交易水平暗示，一年后人民币兑美元汇率将从升值后的8.11元人民币升至7.735元。无本金交割远期外汇合约允许对无法自由兑换的货币进行投资交易。
