“卡特里娜”飓风会重演？

Hurricanes will happen faster and stronger

Devastation similar to that caused by Hurricane Katrina is likely to be repeated in the next few decades, perhaps with greater ferocity, if a spate of recent studies into the science of hurricanes is correct.

Several influential groups of climate scientists have predicted that the rise in global sea temperatures caused by climate change will lead to an increase in the strength of storms around the world. Linking hurricanes to global warming is contentious, and some US researchers have rebuffed such a conclusion, preferring to blame the recent increase in the number of hurri-canes on a cycle that can be -perceived in storm activity. However, even they agree that we have entered a period of greater activity.
“卡特里娜”飓风会重演？

如
果近期对飓风科学的大量研究成果属实的话，那么未来数十年间，类似“卡特里娜”飓风造成的毁灭性灾难可能会再次上演，而且来势可能更为凶猛。

几家颇具影响力的气候组织的科学家预测，气候变化导致的全球海洋温度上升，将造成全球暴风雨强度加大。有人对“把飓风与全球变暖联系起来”的看法持有异议，美国一些研究人员也驳斥了这一结论，他们更倾向于将近期飓风爆发频繁归因于周期性规律，该规律可以通过观察暴风活动而得出。不过，即使他们也一致认为，我们已经进入了一个暴风活动相对活跃期。

《科学》(Science)杂志近期刊登了“全球变暖和飓风两者间可能存在联系”的最新证据。美国乔治亚理工学院(Georgia Institute of Technology)和“国家大气研究中心”(National Centre for Atmospheric Research)的科学家发现，虽然自20世纪90年代以来，飓风爆发的总数下降，但35年来，世界范围内4级和5级飓风（最强级别飓风）爆发的次数已翻了近一番。



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与此同时，自20世纪70年代以来，根据区域不同，飓风季节期全球海面温度上升了0.5至1°华氏不等。此次研究者之一彼得?韦伯斯特(Peter Webster)说：“海面温度上升和飓风强度之间存在关系，我们的研究结果与这一看法相吻合。然而，这并非一种简单的关系。事实上，很难解释为何在海面温度上升幅度最大的过去10年中，飓风爆发次数和持续期反而出现下降。”

他谨慎地反对一种讲法，即人为造成的气候变化和飓风之间存在严格的因果关系：“我们需要获得更长时期飓风统计结果的数据记录，我们需要更多地了解飓风在调节大气和海洋热平衡和热循环中所起的作用。”

飓风只有在温暖的海洋中才能形成，温度一般要在26°C以上。海洋温度越高，暴风雨强度越大，因为温度越高，可形成飓风的能量也越大，英国气象局(Meteorology Office)研究热带气候预测学的科学家朱利安?赫明(Julian Heming)说。

《科学》杂志近日发表研究文章之前，另一本杂志《自然》(Nature)也于今年发表类似研究文章。该研究采用不同的研究方法，发现北大西洋地区暴风雨的强度和持续时间有所增加，其主要作者认为这与全球变暖有关。然而，佛罗里达在去年数月间接连遭受四起飓风袭击后，美国“国家海洋与大气管理局”(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)的科学家发表的一篇文章，却否认“全球变暖和飓风爆发次数增多”存在任何联系，并表示飓风爆发频繁很可能与大西洋地区飓风的周期特性有关。

飓风活动高发期可能持续数十年，此后会进入同样较长时间的相对平静期。上一个高发期是从20世纪30年代到60年代，当前周期始于90年代中期。导致出现本轮周期的关键因素，据说是称为“温盐传送带”的大西洋海洋系统，该海洋系统导致海水热量和盐成分出现变化。其它因素，如高层大气中的风，也影响到飓风的形成。

认为气候变化直接导致“卡特里娜”飓风爆发是错误的。飓风是偶然事物，必须有一系列因素同时发生才能形成。不可以将“卡特里娜”飓风这一单独事件，视作全球变暖效应的实例。科学家们只能说，气候变化可能会影响天气的宏观趋势。飓风会造成多大损害，取决于它是否以及在何处登陆，而这不过是一个偶然性问题。

在美国，有关飓风和全球变暖的辩论阵营趋向于按政治界限划分。地球之友(Friends of the Earth)节目部经理米歇尔?钱菲谢尔Michelle Chan-Fishel表示：“在那些确信我们正在经历气候变化的人看来，这是人类活动咎由自取的另一个消极迹象。但是，对那些不认为我们正在经历气候变化（或认为气候变化并非人类活动导致）的怀疑论者而言，我不能确信这次飓风能够说服他们改变自己的观点。”

当然，如果要论战尘埃落定，让我们更加接近科学真理，可能还要等上一段时间。

Katrina's Impact On the Economy Comes Into View

Hurricane Katrina's broader impact on the economy is becoming more apparent.

Thousands of individuals displaced by the storm have already filed for unemployment benefits and thousands more are expected, according to a Labor Department report. Meanwhile, gauges of manufacturing activity far from the Gulf of Mexico showed softening early this month, and economists and executives expressed concerns about rising energy costs.

Largely because of gasoline-price increases before Katrina, the Labor Department's latest consumer-price index rose 0.5% in August, pushing it up 3.6% from a year ago, the largest increase in four years. More than 90% of the prices used to compile the report were gathered before the storm struck, meaning steeper increases are likely to come.

Outside of energy, however, prices were up modestly; 0.1% for the month and 2.2% from a year earlier. Excluding both food and energy, the so-called "core" rate of inflation was up a modest 0.1% in August from the month before. Medical-care prices were unchanged, the first time they hadn't risen in nearly 30 years, largely because of a puzzling drop in the price of hospital services.

Taken together, the reports underscored the economy's turbulence since the storm hit at the end of last month. Energy-price increases hadn't been feeding broader inflation before the storm, though pressures seemed to be mounting.

That leaves officials at the Federal Reserve in a challenging spot heading into their meeting next week. They can raise the short-term federal-funds rate, the rate charged on overnight bank loans, for the 11th time in 15 months when they meet on Tuesday to forestall incipient inflation. Or they can pause to further assess the damage left by the storm.

First-time jobless claims rose 71,000 to 398,000, after seasonal adjustments, in the week ended Sept. 10, the Labor Department said. It was the highest level in two years. The department estimated Katrina accounted for 68,000 claims -- and that number is likely to be an underestimate, a department statistician said.

"We know there have been much more claims filed at the state level," he said. The filings were hard to count because of the "unprecedented" volume and "unconventional methods" used by the states to collect layoff claims, he said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said their indexes of manufacturing activity in the Northeast softened in early September, though they still showed the sector was expanding.

The Philadelphia's Fed index dropped to 2.2 in September from 17.5 in August. In September, 24.4% of the manufacturing executives surveyed in the region said business activity was increasing while 22.2% said it was contracting; the difference of 2.2 percentage points is the basis of the index. The New York Fed's index of manufacturing activity dropped to 17 in September from 23 in August. Projections of activity six months hence also declined, a possible sign of declining confidence, while estimates of the prices paid for materials surged.

In the Philly Fed survey, 86% of those surveyed said energy prices were having a negative effect on orders and production. Just 6% described the effect as "significantly negative." Meanwhile, economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics listed soaring energy prices as the nation's top short-run economic problem.
卡特里娜飓风对美国经济的影响开始显现



卡特里娜(Katrina)飓风对美国经济的广泛影响正开始显现。

根据美国劳工部(Labor Department)的一份报告，受卡特里娜飓风影响，已有数千人申请失业救济，预计还会有数几千人即将提出申请。与此同时，经济学家和公司管理人士对能源成本持续上升表示担忧。

劳工部周四表示，上周首次申请失业救济人数经季节因素调整后增加7.1万人至39.8万人，创下两年来的最高水平。劳工部估计其中有6.8万人是由于卡特里娜飓风所致，而且劳工部负责统计的官员表示该数字很可能被低估了。

这位官员称，各州的申请失业救济人数肯定要高出许多。但这些申请很难统计，因为人数之多是“前所未有的”，加之各州收集此类数据采用的都是“不合常规的方法”。

首次申请失业救人数的增幅则创下近10年来的最高水平，为1996年发生东海岸暴风雪以来的最高水平。

主要受飓风来袭前汽油价格高涨的影响，劳工部最新公布8月份消费者价格指数(CPI)较上月增长0.5%，较上年同期的增幅达到3.6%，创4年来的最高水平。其中用于编制该报告的90%以上的价格数据都是在飓风来袭前收集的，这意味著以后的增幅会更大。

不包括能源价格在内的CPI温和上升0.1%，较上年同期增长2.2%。不包括食品和能源价格在内的核心CPI较上月温和上升0.1%。

总体而言，报告凸现出自卡特里娜飓风于8月末登陆以来美国经济遭受的冲击。在飓风来袭前，能源价格的上涨尚未引发广泛的通货膨胀，但这种压力似乎越来越大。

美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)估计，卡特里娜飓风将使2005年下半年美国经济增幅至少下降0.5%。

国会预算办公室还表示，全国就业人数可能显著下降50万人。

因此，有华尔街人士预计，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：Fed)决策者可能将在9月20日的会议上暂停加息。自2004年6月以来，Fed已连续10次上调关键联邦基金利率，每次上调25个基点。目前，联邦关键利率为3.5%。

卡特里娜成了唾手可得的替罪羊
Katrina Becomes Easy Scapegoat For Some Earnings Shortfalls

The blame game over Hurricane Katrina is well under way in Washington. Now it is catching on along Wall Street, too.

Just as some politicians and experts are voicing criticism regarding how authorities prepared for -- and dealt with the aftermath of -- the hurricane, companies are beginning to point their fingers at Katrina for any falloff in their businesses.

With recovery efforts continuing and the full effects still being assessed, a number of companies in recent days have sent word to investors that their earnings will be hurt. Several insurers and reinsurers also are adding up estimates of losses they likely sustained.


Some analysts say companies can be too eager to blame their poor performances on exogenous shocks, such as wars and the weather, in hopes that investors will overlook other problems they are confronting.

But as long as these companies provide assurance that the slide will be only short term, some analysts say investors could give a "free pass" to a number of companies that blame Katrina for various earnings shortfalls. The trick in the weeks ahead will be divining those companies with businesses that truly are being hurt by the damage to the New Orleans region, and those companies only somewhat affected but dealing with troubles in their operations elsewhere.

Investors are gearing up for more Katrina-related warnings. Companies that have cited the impact of the hurricane as they withdrew previous earnings outlooks or gave profit warnings to investors include: real-estate, lodging and travel company Cendant Corp.; media companies Belo Corp., Knight Ridder Inc., Entercom Communications Corp. and Hearst-Argyle Television Inc.; Tyson Foods Inc.; defense company Northrop Grumman Corp.; trucking company Yellow Roadway Corp.; and book retailer Books-A-Million Inc.

"While the hurricane's aftermath will provide many companies lots of leeway for missing numbers in the third quarter," says Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chief U.S. equity strategist, "we doubt the investment community will be as generous if they have to trim back fourth-quarter and 2006 assumptions, too."

The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the accounting-rule maker for publicly traded companies in the U.S., has said companies won't be allowed to call the costs and losses from Katrina "extraordinary items" for accounting purposes, but must include them in their income statements, though many will probably try to guide analysts toward removing such costs from pro forma earnings.

In 4 p.m. composite trading yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, Cendant's shares were up 11 cents to $20.34. On Tuesday, the company said it expects earnings of $1.11 to $1.18 a share for 2005 because of Katrina, down from a July forecast of $1.15 to $1.22, but it said the hurricane wouldn't have any impact on 2006 results. And its shares fell 1.3%.

Other companies are taking it on the chin, however, in part because they have lumped Katrina-related difficulties with other, unrelated problems in their businesses. Spice maker McCormick & Co. might not seem like the kind of company that would be hurt by Katrina. But on Sept. 6, the company reduced its earnings forecast for 2005 due to lower expectations for its industrial-flavoring business and the impact of the hurricane. McCormick owns the Zatarain's line of flavored rice and Cajun foods, produced in New Orleans.


? Updated photos | Graphics: Hotspots | New Orleans Map

? Prioritizing: If you had to flee your home, what would you take? Join the discussion.

? Question of the Day: How would you grade the federal government's handling of the hurricane so far?

? Katrina Wire: Latest Updates

? See complete coverage.




But the company says the problems from Katrina account for just two to three cents of the eight-cent reduction in the fiscal-year profit forecast. McCormick's share price has fallen almost 10% since the warning, in part because the company said that it looks "forward to a strong performance in 2006" but didn't suggest the problems wouldn't affect next year's earnings. In trading yesterday on the Big Board, McCormick's stock was up 30 cents to $30.30.

On Sept. 6, Hearst-Argyle withdrew its previously issued earnings forecast for the third quarter, ending Sept. 30, because of the adverse effects on the company's New Orleans NBC affiliate, WDSU. But Hearst owns 25 stations around the country, manages three other TV stations and manages two radio stations. The company doesn't break out revenue by station, but most estimates put WDSU at generating just over 2% of the company's revenue last year. Victor Miller, a Bear Stearns analyst, says that if the third-quarter earnings forecast ends up being more than 2% or so below the low end of the previous outlook, it will suggest that Hearst's overall business is weakening beyond the New Orleans difficulties. Mr. Miller has a "peer perform" rating on the company's stock.

Tom Campo, a Hearst-Argyle spokesman, said the company spent money deploying numerous journalists to cover the hurricane story, and sent choppers to get personnel out of the area, among other costs incurred due to the storm. In 4 p.m. trading yesterday on the NYSE, Hearst's shares were 12 cents lower to $25.23.

On Tuesday, shares of Knight Ridder fell 5.3%, or $3.44, after the newspaper publisher warned that third-quarter earnings will be about 20% below last year's levels. Yesterday, the company's stock was down $1.39 to $60.07. The company cited losses from its Biloxi, Miss., newspaper, the SunHerald, which saw advertising and readership decline after Katrina. The paper isn't one of the chain's largest, and Knight Ridder also pointed to rising newsprint prices, and disappointing auto, travel and entertainment ads as more important reasons for the expected shortfall.
卡特里娜成了唾手可得的替罪羊

华盛顿的人们已在乐此不疲地将一切麻烦推到卡特里娜飓风头上。现在华尔街的人士也在如法炮制了。

就在一些政客和专家们指责美国政府在卡特里娜飓风袭来之前准备不足、风灾过后救灾不力时，美国企业也开始将业绩下滑归咎于卡特里娜飓风。

鉴于受灾地区的经济仍在恢复而风灾的全部影响依然在评估之中，近些天来已有众多企业向投资者发出了收益预警。几家保险和再保险公司也上调了可能承受损失的估计值。

一些分析师说，企业为了使投资者忽视经营中面临的其他问题，往往过于急切地要将不良业绩归咎于战争和恶劣天气等不可抗力。

分析师们说，只要这些公司保证说不可抗力导致的业绩下滑很快就会过去，投资者就会“宽恕”大量将自身业绩不佳归咎于卡特里娜飓风的公司。未来几周内就可看出，哪些公司的业务是真正受到了新奥尔良地区所遭受打击的伤害，哪些公司只是用卡特里娜飓风来为它们遇到的其他经营困难开脱。

投资者们正在接到更多与卡特里娜飓风有关的收益预警。那些因此收回了以往的业绩预期或发出收益预警的公司包括：房地产、房屋出租和旅游业公司Cendant Corp.、媒体公司Belo Corp.、Knight Ridder Inc.、Entercom Communications Corp.和Hearst-Argyle Television Inc.；泰森食品有限公司(Tyson Foods Inc.)；军工企业Northrop Grumman Corp.；卡车运输公司Yellow Roadway Corp.；书籍零售商Books-A-Million Inc.。

花旗集团(Citigroup)的首席美国股票策略师托比亚斯?莱夫科维奇(Tobias Levkovich)说：“虽然此次飓风给众多公司提供了未能实现第三季度业绩目标的借口，但如果这些公司要想下调第四季度和2006年的业绩预期，投资界可能就不会答应了。”

负责为美国上市企业制订会计操作标准的财务会计标准委员会(Financial Accounting Standards Board)已经表示，企业不得将卡特里娜飓风导致的成本和损失在财务报表中计作“特别项目”，但必须在企业的收益报告中包括进这部分内容，虽然许多企业可能会试图引导分析师将这类成本从企业的预估收益中除去。

在纽约证交所周三下午4点的综合交易中，Cendant股价上涨11美分，至20.34美元。该公司周二表示，由于卡特里娜飓风的影响，公司2005年的每股收益预计将在1.11美元至1.18美元之间，低于7月初时1.15美元至1.22美元的预期值，不过该公司表示这一飓风不会对公司2006年的业绩造成任何影响。该公司股价下跌了1.3%。

但其他一些公司的股票表现就差多了，部分原因是它们将卡特里娜飓风给企业造成的困难和与飓风无关的经营困难混在了一起。调味品生产商McCormick & Co.看上去不像一个会受到卡特里娜飓风打击的公司。但该公司却在9月6日下调了对2005年收益的预期，原因是公司下调了对工业调味品业务的业绩预期，以及业务卡特里娜飓风的影响。 该公司的一部分产品是在新奥尔良生产的。

不过这家公司表示，在2005财政年度每股收益预期值下调的8美分中，应归因于卡特里娜飓风的只有2-3美分。此后，McCormick的股价已经下跌了近10%，这一定程度上是因为，虽然该公司预计2006年业绩会有强劲表现，但却没有表示造成今年收益下调的问题不会影响到明年的经营。纽约证交所周三的交易中，McCormick的股价上涨了30美分，至30.30美元。

9月6日，Hearst-Argyle收回了以前发布的第三财政季度(截止于9月30日)收益预期，原因是该公司在新奥尔良的子公司WDSU对公司业绩造成了负面影响。不过Hearst在全美各地拥有25家电视台，还管理著另外三家电视台和两家广播电台。虽然这家公司并不单独公布每家电视台的收入，但人们普遍估计该公司去年的收入中只有2%略多一点来自WDSU。贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)的分析师维克特?米勒(Victor Miller)说，如果Hearst最新发布的第三季度每股收益预期较此前所发布预期值的低端低2%以上，就说明导致该公司业绩走弱的因素不仅仅是卡特里娜飓风。米勒对该股的评级是“与类股一致”。

Hearst-Argyle的发言人汤姆?坎普(Tom Campo)说，该公司安排了大量记者去报导卡特里娜飓风，并派出直升飞机将工作人员撤离受灾地区，除此之外公司还发生了其他一些与卡特里娜飓风有关的成本。在纽约证交所昨天下午4点的交易中，Hearst跌12美分，至25.23美元。

Knight Ridder的股价周二下跌了5.3%，至3.44美元。此前这家报纸出版商警告说，第三季度收益将比去年同期减少20%左右。该公司股价周三下跌1.39美元，至60.07美元。Knight Ridder将损失归咎于公司在密西西比州出版的报纸SunHerald，卡特里娜飓风导致该报的广告收入和发行量下降。不过该报并非Knight Ridder旗下的主要报纸，该公司指出，纸张价格的上升、汽车、旅游和娱乐广告收入的不尽人意是导致公司下调第三季度业绩预期的更主要原因。

Katrina Stirs Up Rate Dilemma As It Hits Growth, Lifts Prices

Less than five months from retirement, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan faces an unusually delicate challenge in deciding whether Hurricane Katrina should force a pause in the Fed's 14-month campaign to raise interest rates.

The storm has hurt near-term economic growth prospects, which normally would call for lower interest rates, but it also has elevated prices and potential inflationary pressure, which normally would call for higher interest rates. The question facing Mr. Greenspan and his colleagues is: Which is the dominant concern?

CAST YOUR VOTE



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Fed officials say they will see how markets and the economy behave between now and their next meeting on Sept. 20 before deciding what action to take. Before Katrina, markets had assumed the Fed would raise short-term interest rates for the 11th consecutive time by a quarter of a percentage point, from 3.5%. Now, though, markets see some possibility that the Fed will pause in its rate-increase campaign, though they put the odds at less than 50%.

Fed officials haven't ruled out a pause but disagree with some of the rationales circulating on Wall Street. They dispute that raising rates would appear unseemly so soon after a national tragedy. They agree there will be a hit to economic growth, but some also believe inflationary pressures will be aggravated by higher energy prices. But officials also believe that if they pause, they can use the accompanying statement to keep the option of resuming rate increases on the table.

In a survey of forecasters by WSJ.com to be released today, 15 economists say the Fed should stop raising rates in light of Katrina, and 35 say it shouldn't.

Some of those expecting a pause say it would seem heartless to raise rates so soon. The Fed "may simply feel that it is inappropriate to take a business-as-usual approach," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note to clients this week.

Some congressmen also have urged the Fed to let up. "Given the economic uncertainty and negative impact of the Katrina catastrophe, it would be reasonable for the Fed to pause, evaluate the upcoming economic data, and reappraise the timing of any future rate increases," Rep. Jim Saxton, New Jersey Republican and chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said in a statement.


But several Fed officials reject this argument. They believe it is a mistake for the Fed ever to subordinate its goals of low inflation and maximum growth to political considerations. Moreover, they fear that pausing for noneconomic reasons actually could undermine confidence by suggesting the Fed is more worried about the economy than it actually is.

There is little doubt overall economic output will take a sizable hit in coming months. The Congressional Budget Office estimates Katrina will knock half to one percentage point, at an annual rate, off second-half growth this year and wipe out 400,000 jobs. Fed officials say there may be additional effects if sharply higher gasoline prices seriously erode consumer confidence. They will have little firm data on Sept. 20, and pausing would give them time to collect some. Some officials say they could give that as a rationale in the accompanying statement, while signaling an intention to keep raising rates once they're confident the impact is transitory. If the pause turns out to have been unnecessary, the Fed could make up for it with half-point rate increases later.

Moreover, officials are likely to take comfort in the fact that the behavior of inflation-index bonds suggests investors see no lasting effect on inflation from the recent energy-price jump. "This weakens the arguments by some that the inflationary consequences of Katrina will prevent the FOMC from pausing," said Brian Sack, an economist at economic advisory Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, referring to the Fed's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.

Yesterday, the Labor Department delivered mixed news on the inflation front. It said that productivity, or output per hour, rose at just a 1.8% revised annual rate in the second quarter, low by recent standards. Higher productivity growth enables companies to increase sales without additional labor costs. But it also found that productivity excluding financial companies and unincorporated businesses rose a hefty 6.8%.

But for some Fed officials, Katrina merely has amplified concerns they already had that higher energy prices were working their way into underlying inflation. While higher oil prices might reduce growth, "there is also a risk on the inflation front, and the risk is higher now than it was a year ago," Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said yesterday. With the economy running close to capacity, businesses are more likely to pass higher energy costs on to other goods and services, he told the Futures Industry Association in Chicago yesterday. If inflation accelerates, it could become embedded in workers' and companies' wage-and-price behavior, he said. "The Fed would need to respond accordingly in order to restore price stability."
卡特里娜打乱Fed的脚步
2005年09月09日13:58

就在离退休的日子已不足5个月的时候，一个非同寻常的、相当棘手的难题摆在了美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve，简称Fed)主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)面前，那就是面对飓风卡特里娜造成的灾难，Fed是否应暂停已持续了14个月的加息长跑？

这场风暴打击了美国经济近期的增长前景，一般来说这种情况意味著应下调利率，但风暴也导致了价格上涨，从而加大了潜在的通货膨胀压力，因此反过来又需要提高利率。现在，格林斯潘和他的同僚们需要考虑的问题是：这两个方面的问题哪一个更严重、更主要？

Fed官员表示，他们将在9月20日下一次政策会议之前观察市场和经济的反应再做决定。在卡特里娜飓风爆发前，市场认为Fed 9月份将连续第11次加息，将联邦基金利率上调25个基点至3.5%。不过现在市场认为，Fed在这次会议上有可能暂时歇手。但从交易情况看，市场认为出现这种情况的概率还不足50%。

Fed官员并未排除暂停加息的可能，但对华尔街流行的一些说法并不赞同。有人认为，在一场全国性灾难之后很快就加息不太得体，对此他们表示不能苟同。他们认为，飓风的确会对经济增长造成打击，但也有人担心油价上涨将加剧通货膨胀压力。不过Fed官员们相信，如果暂停加息，他们也会利用政策声明来公开传达这样的信号：Fed将保留重新开始加息的选择。

今日公布的《华尔街日报》网络版对经济学家进行的一项调查显示，有15人认为，鉴于刚刚过去的飓风灾难，Fed应停止加息，而有35人表示Fed不应停止。

一些预计Fed会暂停的人说，（灾难过后）这么快就加息会显得太无情了。高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家在本周给客户的报告里就说，Fed可能只是觉得，在现在这种情况下表现得好像什么也没发生是不合适的。

一些国会人士也敦促Fed暂停行动。来自新泽西州的共和党众议员、联合经济委员会主席吉米?萨克斯顿(Jim Saxton)在一份声明中说，鉴于飓风造成的负面影响和经济形势的不确定性，Fed的合理做法应该是停止加息，对即将发布的经济数据作出评估，然后重新考虑未来如继续加息所应选择的时机。

但数名Fed官员反对这种观点。他们认为，将Fed保持低通胀、刺激经济实现最大增长的政策目标置于政治考虑之下的做法是错误的。并且，他们担心因为经济之外的因素暂停加息将打击市场信心，因为这样会夸大Fed对经济的担忧程度。

未来数月美国经济总产出将受到很大影响，这一点毫无疑问。国会预算委员会估计，卡特里娜将使下半年美国国内生产总值的增幅减少0.5-1.0个百分点（折合成年率计算），并减少400,000个就业岗位。Fed官员说，如果汽油价格大幅上升严重影响消费信心，那么实际影响程度会更大。

到9月20日开会时，Fed还不会得到有关卡特里娜飓风所造成灾害的翔实数字，而暂停加息可以给他们留出时间来搜集一些。一些官员说，他们可以在会议声明中将此作为一个原因提出来，同时表明这样的想法：一旦确认飓风的影响只是暂时的，Fed将继续加息。而如果后来发现暂停加息并无必要，那么Fed可以在此后的加息中上调50个基点加以弥补。

另外，从通货膨胀指数债券的走势看，投资者们认为近期油价上涨对通货膨胀并无持续性影响，对此，Fed官员可能会感到欣慰。经济咨询公司Macroeconomic Advisers LLC的经济学家布里恩?赛克(Brian Sack)说，债券走势使得所谓卡特里娜对通货膨胀的推升作用将使Fed公开市场委员会(FOMC)不会选择暂停加息的观点显得有点苍白无力。

美国劳工部(Labor Department)周三公布的数据从通货膨胀的角度来看喜忧参半。数据显示，二季度美国劳动生产率（即单位时间产出量）经修订后折合年率只增长了1.8%，从近期平均数字看，这个水平偏低。生产率增长水平越高，企业就能在不必支付更多工资成本的情况下增加产量和销售收入。不过进一步的数据还显示，如不包括金融公司和非有限责任公司，则生产率增幅为6.8%。

但对某些Fed官员来说，仅仅是卡特里娜飓风就加剧了他们对高油价已影响到核心通货膨胀率的担忧。芝加哥联邦储备银行行长麦克尔?莫斯柯(Michael Moskow)周三表示，尽管高油价有可能减缓经济增长，但“它也能加大通货膨胀风险，这种风险现在比一年前要高多了”。

莫斯柯周三在芝加哥对期货行业协会(Futures Industry Association)发表讲话时说，鉴于目前美国经济已接近于充分运转，因此，企业很有可能将能源成本增加的部分转嫁到其产品和服务上。如果通货膨胀加剧，它将在工资-物价关系上得到反映。他说，为恢复价格稳定，Fed需要作出回应。

莫斯柯的上述观点在Fed的“黄皮书”(即Fed的12家地区分行在9月20日会议前就经济形势所作的调查报告)中得到了呼应。虽然这些调查是在卡特里娜袭击美国之前进行的，但报告得出结论认为，在美国的零售、服务、金融、建筑、制造和采矿、能源及旅游等各行业，经济活动普遍呈上升势头。报告还称，在Fed的12个辖区中，有8个辖区的能源密集型行业得以将增加的一部分能源成本转嫁给消费者，不过消费价格的总体升幅仍很温和。

飓风吹散中国人的美国梦
Hurricane Images Hurt China's View of the U.S.

Chinese accountant Zhang Weifeng had always believed that in America, the government worked like a well-oiled machine. After watching television footage of the post-Katrina chaos in New Orleans each night after work, the 28-year-old from Shanghai sees the U.S. in a different light.

"I had thought this could only happen in developing countries," Mr. Zhang says of the chaos. In fact, "the U.S. government is not as powerful and efficient in critical moments as I have imagined."

For years, the U.S. has symbolized an ideal land for many Chinese. The rosy view has eroded somewhat in recent years following the 1999 U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade -- which Washington maintains was an accident -- and questions over U.S. military personnel's abuse of war criminals and terrorist suspects.

Now, many Chinese people and media haven't been able to resist a tone of smugness over America's mishandling of the disaster.


"Katrina has blown off America's beautiful coat," proclaims a recent article in the Qianjiang Evening News, a Chinese-language newspaper based in the eastern province of Zhejiang. The article cites comments by U.S. police and activists criticizing relief efforts.

Chinese Internet bulletin boards have been flooded with comments on Katrina issues, many of them critical of the U.S. One posting says: "The hurricane has let us see the truth about America, when we are seeing the miserable situation of blacks, the old, women and children struggling on the edge of life. We can't believe this is the strongest and richest America."

While people in other countries also have voiced shock and criticism over the U.S. government's response to Katrina, for China, which long has listened to Washington's criticism of its human-rights record and its business practices, the handling of Katrina has damaged America's credibility in the eyes of some citizens.

It is too early to say how a shift in Chinese popular views might affect official U.S.-China relations, which have frayed over such issues as China's piracy of American products and its growing trade surplus with the U.S. Already, Beijing has at times been more vocal in criticizing the U.S. In its latest annual report on America's human-rights record -- apparently issued in response to the U.S. State Department's annual human-rights report -- China's State Council, or cabinet, notes the "atrocity of U.S. troops abusing Iraqi prisoners of war" and says it finds "ironic" Washington's efforts to serve as "the world human-rights police."

Liu Jinzhi, a professor of international relations at Peking University, says that in the past 50 years, Chinese people's views of the U.S. have gone from one extreme to the other, with America vilified under the communist system, then idealized during the last two decades of market changes.

"I think now Chinese people are coming close to a true picture of the U.S.," Prof. Liu says. He adds that in the long run, the change in public opinion toward the U.S. could "restrict Chinese leaders' [options] in making foreign policy" and pressure them to take tougher positions.

As the administration of President George W. Bush scrambled to launch massive rescue and cleanup operations in New Orleans, China's top leaders and many people expressed sympathy for Katrina's victims. Chinese President Hu Jintao pledged $5 million in aid to the U.S.

China has had its own share of casualties from floods and other natural disasters. Because the country often faces severe flooding, the central government has instituted a detailed response system that strictly requires authorities to get food and water supplies to affected residents within 24 hours.

Recent scandals over the U.S.'s mistreatment of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and Guantanamo Bay prison camp also have affected some Chinese people's views of the U.S. When news of the Abu Ghraib abuses surfaced, Chinese newspapers carried stories and photos prominently, and a bulletin board on Chinese portal Sina.com drew 7,000 comments.

Among Chinese, some of the shine is even coming off America's reputation as a land of opportunity, as China's economy keeps roaring ahead with annual growth of 9% or more.

Wu Chen, 28, opted to return to China in March after getting a master's degree in journalism in the U.S. He now works as chief editor of the Chinese-language edition of CFO Magazine, a publication of the Economist Group of the U.K.

"Many Chinese students, including many who had already settled down in the U.S., have opted to come back to China," Mr. Wu says. "It's a rising country with far more good opportunities than before. So I came back."
飓风吹散中国人的美国梦

许多中国人曾对美国怀有玫瑰色的梦想，但这些梦想已经因一系列的事件而逐渐失去颜色，像1999年美国轰炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆（虽然华盛顿声称那只是个意外），以及美国军队曝出虐俘丑闻。如今，美国政府对卡特里娜飓风灾难的笨拙反应再次吹散了这些人的美国梦。

就在美国政府手忙脚乱地在新奥尔良展开营救、进行灾后清理的同时，中国高层领导以及许多中国人向美国受灾民众表达了同情，中国国家主席胡锦涛承诺向美国提供500万美元的援助。不过，许多中国人还是忍不住地要说上几句。

中国的一份中文报纸《钱江晚报》(Qianjiang Evening News)近期刊登了一篇标题为"卡特里娜吹开美国漂亮外衣"的文章，文章援引美国警察、以及活动家的话批评了美国政府的救援工作。

中国互联网的留言板上到处可见对卡特里娜飓风的留言和评论，其中许多留言也对美国政府提出了批评。有一条留言这样写道，飓风让我们看到了真实的美国，我们看到的是挣扎在死亡边缘的黑人、老人、妇女和儿童的悲惨境遇。我们无法相信这就是最强大、最富裕的美国。

其他地方的人们也对美国政府救灾措施表示了震惊和批评，而对于长期以来总是听信美国对中国人权和贸易状况的贬低之词的许多中国人来说，此次的飓风也促使他们对美国的信誉重新进行一番审视。

现在还无法判断中国人对美国看法的转变是否会影响中美两国的外交关系。中国市场上充斥的大量假冒美国商品，中国对美贸易顺差的不断扩大一直在阻碍著两国关系的发展。不过，北京大学国际关系学教授刘金质指出，在过去的50年中，中国人对美国的看法从一个极端走到了另一个极端。美国从被丑化到成为人们心中理想的国度，这一转变也就是中国市场经济改革这20年间的事情。

"现在的中国人逐渐看清了美国的真实面目，"刘金质这样说到。他补充称，从长期看，老百姓对美国的看法的改变可能会限制中国领导人的外交策略，迫使政府采取更为强硬的立场。

不过，至少现在人们更多的只是看清美国的真实面目、而非和它划清关系。张伟峰(音译)一直相信美国政府就是一台运行良好的机器。然而，在每天晚上从电视上不断看到飓风过后的悲惨景象后，这位28岁的会计师开始对美国有了新的看法。

"我一直认为这种情况只会发生在发展中国家，"他说，"而实际上，美国政府并不是我想像的那样、在关键时刻能高效、有力地发挥作用。"