Why Worry? Well, Here Are Four Reasons
Lose money? That's the least of it.
As the financial markets remind us on an almost daily basis, it is possible to lose a heap of money in a hurry. Yet there is a whole lot more to risk than plummeting investments.
If you want some sleepless nights, here are four other dangers to worry about.
1 Bad Ideas
As you decide how much to save each month and how to invest those dollars, you have to make assumptions about the future. For instance, lots of people presume that stocks are sure to beat bonds, that real estate always appreciates, that saving 10% a year is enough, that they will have steady employment until retirement and that stocks will deliver 10% a year over the long run.
How solid are these assumptions? To me, some seem dubious, like the notion that stocks will deliver 10% a year. Others appear more reasonable, like the idea that stocks will beat bonds over the long run. But it is worth pondering what it would mean for your finances if even a dearly held belief like that proved incorrect.
After all, who would have thought the Nasdaq Composite Index would fall 78% over the 2? years through October 2002, or oil would rocket to $70 a barrel, or real estate would get so hot that folks would trade condos like they were individual stocks, or a hurricane would shut down New Orleans? And, on this date, who can forget the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks?
The fact is, the unthinkable happens all the time. The lesson: Don't bank too heavily on any one assumption -- or your entire financial strategy could come unstuck.
2 Monthly Mentality
It's great to receive a regular paycheck. It isn't so great when your paycheck arrives and the entire sum is already spoken for.
Unfortunately, this seems to be increasingly common, with families taking on a bewildering array of monthly commitments, including payments for the mortgage, car leases, credit cards, utilities, cable television, cellphones, DVD rental, satellite radio, Internet access and goodness knows what else.
Colleen Walsh, an accountant and financial planner in West Hartford, Conn., has dubbed this the "monthly mentality." As she sees it, folks focus too much on what they can afford based on their monthly cash flow. "People are very caught up with what their neighbors are doing and with keeping up with the Joneses, and they're not looking out for their own long-term financial well-being," Ms. Walsh says.
As families take on more and more recurring monthly expenses, they leave themselves vulnerable to two key financial problems. First, with fixed costs consuming so much of their paycheck, it is hard to find money to save.
Second, things could quickly turn ugly if these folks are laid off or get hit with hefty medical or home-repair costs. Sure, if necessary, they could ditch some of their monthly obligations. But once people get used to a certain standard of living, it is painful to cut back.
3 Penalty Play
If you did get laid off, you could presumably keep yourself afloat for a while by dipping into savings. But that may be more costly than you imagine.
If you are like me, the vast majority of your savings is in tax-sheltered retirement accounts. The problem: Tapping these accounts before age 59? typically means paying both income taxes and tax penalties.
Granted, if you lost your job, you probably wouldn't be in a high tax bracket, so the tax hit may not be too severe. But let's say you got laid off in August or September and you have to raid your individual retirement account to get through the months ahead.
Because you have already hauled in a decent amount of income for the year, you could be in a moderately high tax bracket. Result: Federal and state taxes, combined with tax penalties, could snag 40% or more of your IRA's value.
4 Debtors' Prison
Suppose you own a $250,000 house and you have $200,000 stashed in stocks and bonds. You also, however, have a $200,000 mortgage and $30,000 in auto loans and credit-card debt.
Add it up, and you have $450,000 in total assets and $230,000 in total debts, giving you a net worth of $220,000. Doesn't seem particularly risky? Usually, it wouldn't be.
But imagine you lost your job during a weak housing market. After some scrambling, you land a new job, but it is on the other side of the country. That means you have to sell your current home, relocate your family and buy another home, while continuing to cover living expenses and service debts.
With any luck, thanks to your new job, you won't have any problem qualifying for another mortgage. But you still have to come up with a down payment for the new house.
That may not be easy. Given the housing market's weakness and your need to sell quickly, you might end up unloading your current home for $225,000. After forking over a 6% real-estate commission and paying off your $200,000 mortgage, you would net just $11,500.
Fortunately, as you cobble together a down payment for the new house, you can draw on your $200,000 in stocks and bonds. Unfortunately, much of this money is in retirement accounts, so tapping your portfolio could mean paying income taxes and tax penalties.
One way or another, you would probably muddle through, somehow managing to relocate, keep your creditors at bay and buy a new home. Still, if all this seems a little precarious, there's a reason: It is.
My goal here isn't to dissuade you from ever taking on debt or ever funding a retirement account. But bad things happen, so you need to give yourself some financial breathing room. That means limiting your debts, holding down monthly financial obligations and having some savings in a regular taxable account.
But most of all, you need to think ahead. What if you don't have steady employment from now until retirement? What if real estate doesn't always appreciate? What if stocks don't return 10% a year? You need to build such possibilities into your financial plan -- before something goes wrong and it's way too late for planning.
让你发愁的四个理由
金融市场几乎每天都在提醒我们，转眼间就损失大把的钞票是很有可能的。然而，这世界上还有许多比投资急剧贬值风险更大的事。
如果你想尝尝辗转难眠的滋味，以下四种风险足够叫你头疼不已。
1.站不住脚的假设
你在决定每个月该存多少钱，并如何用它们来进行投资的时候，常常要对将来作一些假设。比如，很多人都预想股票的回报肯定要胜过债券，房地产总是在升值，每年只要储蓄10%就够了，会一直有稳定的工作直到退休，股票的长期回报率会达到每年10%。
然而，这些假设的可靠性有多高呢？在我看来，某些假设是值得怀疑的，比如股票每年会有10%的回报。其他的假设似乎有些道理，比如认为股票回报从长期来看要优于债券。不过，如果一个你深信不疑的观点被证明是错误的，那么就值得来思考一下它对于你的个人理财意味著什么了。
在截至2002年10月的两年半时间里，纳斯达克综合指数下滑了78%；如今油价已经飙升至每桶70美元；房地产如火如荼，以至于人们像交易个股那样炒卖房地产；一场飓风几乎让整个新奥尔良陷入停顿。谁曾预料到会发生这些情况呢？在今天，谁又能忘记9?11恐怖袭击？
事实告诉我们，本以为不可能发生的事情每时每刻都在发生。记住一个教训：不要过度依赖任何假设，否则你的整个理财计划就会变得一团糟。
2. 月度心态
每月拿稳定的薪水是件很妙的事。然而，如果你的薪水刚发下来就已经被瓜分完毕，恐怕就不是那么妙了。
不幸的是，这种现象似乎越来越普遍。很多家庭每个月都有一大堆令人目眩的开支：偿还抵押贷款、租车费用、信用卡还贷、公用事业费用、有线电视费、手机费、DVD租金、卫星电视费、上网费--天知道还会冒出点什么其他的开销。
科琳?沃尔什(Colleen Walsh)是康涅狄格州West Hartford的一位会计师兼财务规划师，她把这种现象戏称为“月度心态”。在她看来，人们过于看重自己每月的收入能承担怎样的开销。“人们非常容易受邻居的影响，争相攀比，而没有注意到自己长远的财务利益，” 沃尔什说。
很多家庭每月承担的经常性开支越来越多，容易受到两大财务问题的困扰：首先，固定消费支出占据他们收入的大部分，因此很难有钱攒下来。
其次，一旦遭到解雇、或忽然要承担沉重的医疗费用或房屋修缮费用，他们的财务状况就会立刻变得很不堪。当然，必要时他们可以扔掉一些每月必须的开销。不过，当人们已经习惯一定的生活水准，要降下来是件无比痛苦的事。
3. 税收的惩罚
如果你真的被解雇了，也许依靠过去的积蓄也能过一阵太平日子。不过，这样做的代价可能比你想像的要高。
如果你像我一样，大部分的储蓄都放在避税的退休帐户上，那现在就有个问题： 如果在59岁半之前动用这些帐户，这意味著不仅要交收入所得税，还要交税务罚款。
没错，如果你丢了工作，你很可能不用缴纳很高的税，因此缴税方面的打击不会很严重。不过，让我们来假设你是在8月或9月被解雇的，于是你就要动用个人退休帐户以度过往后的几个月。
由于你在当年获得了可观的收入，因此纳税额可能处于一个适度偏高的范围内。结果：你不仅要交联邦税和州税，还要交纳税务罚款，这些加起来会吃掉你个人退休帐户价值的40%，甚至更多。
4.债务人的困境
假设你有一所价值25万美元的房子和20万美元的股票和债券。与此同时，你有20万美元的抵押贷款和3万美元的汽车贷款和信用卡债务。
把这些起来，那么你就有45万美元的总资产和23万美元的总负债，净值是22万美元。危险性显得特别大吗？一般来说，不会。
不过，想像一下，假如现在房产市场比较疲软，而你却失去了工作。经过一番努力，你找到了一份新的工作，不过却是在另外一个城市。这意味著你要卖掉现有的房子，举家搬迁，另置新居，同时还要继续支付生活费用和偿还债务。
如果你运气不错，新的工作会让你好不费力就申请到了另一个抵押贷款，但你还是要为新房子交纳首付款。
这可不容易。由于房产市场不景气，而你又急于出手旧的房产，因此你有可能22.5万美元就把房子卖了。支付了6%的房地产佣金，又付清20万美元的抵押贷款后，你现在的净资产只有1.15万美元。
幸运的是，你可以利用价值20万美元的股票和债券来帮助凑齐首付款。但是又很不幸，这些钱的很大一部分都存在退休帐户中，动用这些证券资产意味著要交纳收入所得税和税务罚款。
无论如何，你也许都能应付过去，安置到新的地方去，债务也暂时不太紧张，并且终于把新房子买下来了。尽管如此，这一切还是显得有点不稳当--确实如此。
在此，我的目的并不是劝你不去承担任何债务或投资退休帐户。不过不尽人意的事情时有发生，你需要在财务方面给自己一个喘息的空间。这就意味著要限制债务的数量，减少每月的固定支出，在一个常规的应税帐户上存些钱。
不过，最重要的还是要有长远的目光。如果从现在至退休之前这段时间你没有一个稳定的工作该怎么办？如果房地产并不是一直在升值该怎么办？如果股票的年回报率达不到10%该怎么办？在出现某些不妙的情况之前，你需要把这些可能性都考虑到理财计划中去，否则一切就太迟了。
