China bourses may be bottoming out helped by reforms, inflows - Lehman Bros
China's stock market reforms may be starting to pay off, with encouraging signs emerging that the mainland bourses are bottoming out, Lehman Brothers said.
In a research note to clients, the investment bank said that recent reforms have helped boost the market, as have capital inflows from speculators anticipating further currency appreciation or moving out of a weakening property market.
""China's government this year has enacted a spate of reforms, which in time could serve to revitalize the lacklustre stock market,"" it said.
The research note said that the stock market index fell by more than 25 pct last year, with the average stock price only half the value of its peak in July 2001.
Yet over the same period, the Chinese economy has grown strongly, with last year's gross domestic product growth rate reaching 9.5 pct.
Lehman Brothers said that China's decision to pilot the sale of state-owned non-tradable shares, which comprise two-thirds of the total market equity, should reduce market uncertainty and lessen systematic risk.
China has also introduced longer-term investors such as insurance companies, pension funds and qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) into its capital markets to reduce the volatility created by short-term shareholders or speculators.
At the same time it has created a fund to compensate investors for the losses resulting from the bankruptcies of brokerages, while injecting funds to boost the capital adequacy of several key securities houses, the research note said.
China's recent changes to its exchange rate, which saw its currency appreciate by 2.1 pct, have also sparked new interest in domestic shares.
""With foreign investors rushing to raise their China share holdings, the revaluation became a boon to the recent equity market rally: Shanghai's Class B share index, which tracks stock purchases by foreign investors, has rebounded 40 pct since the revaluation was announced in late July,"" it said.
""According to the latest data, the total investment of QFII investors in China's mutual funds surged 221 pct from a year ago.""
Lehman Brothers noted that the lack of returns from China's property market, which has seen falls of more than 20 pct in the average prices of Shanghai luxury apartments over the past two quarters, has also seen speculators move back into the capital markets.
""After a four-year decline, China's lacklustre stock market has showed some encouraging signs of bottoming out,"" it said.
""But it is too early to claim 'mission accomplished'. Much more needs to be done and risks lurk ahead: corporate governance should be improved, market supervision must be strengthened, and stock transactions need to become fairer and more transparent.""
雷曼: 中国股市或已触底
雷曼兄弟投资银行指出, 相信中国股市的一系列改革措施已初显成效, 已有可喜的迹象显示中国股市或已触底并开始回升。
雷曼在研究报告中称, 中国近期推行的一系列股市改革措施, 以及因预期人民币进一步升值而涌入或因房地产市场疲软而转战股市的投机资金, 均有助推动股市的回暖。
雷曼称, 中国股市去年下跌逾25%, 平均股价跌至01年7月份时水平的一半; 形成鲜明对比的是, 期间中国经济强劲增长, 尤其是去年增长9.5%。
雷曼称, 中国推行股权分置改革, 应有助于消除股市不明朗因素, 减少系统性风险; 而加大力度引入保险公司、退休基金和QFII等长期投资机构, 也有助于平抑短期投资者或投机者带来的市场波动。
此外, 中国近期设立投资者保护基金, 向国内多家主要证券行大举注资增强其实力, 以及实行人民币汇率改革, 凡此种种改革措施均有助刺激资金重新入市。
雷曼称, 人民币升值有助于进一步推动外资增持中国股份, 自7月21日人民币汇率改革以来, 上证B股指数反弹了40%。数据显示, QFII对中国互惠基金的投资额较一年前猛增了221%。
雷曼称, 经4年沉沦后, 中国股市终于出现了见底迹象, 但""使命仍未完成"", 前面仍存在风险, 仍有许多工作需要完善, 包括企业管治需要进一步完善, 市场监管需予加强, 股市的公平性和透明度需进一步增强。
