Why China stands to grow old before it gets rich
The Chinese president's visit to Britain this week provided a great opportunity to talk about better bilateral trade links and China's human rights record. But I hope Tony Blair also was able, at some point, to talk about China's extraordinary demographics - something which could shape the country's destiny over the coming decades.
One reason for China's stellar growth is that it is at a demographic sweet-spot. The massive reduction in infant mortality achieved by China's barefoot doctors in the 1960s and 1970s is now yielding a surge of young workers - an extra 10m working-age adults a year. China's challenge now is just to absorb them into the labour force. Add to that the massive population flow from the countryside and you can see why wages are low and growth is so fast. There are few pensioners and there are not many children either. The rabbit is indeed in the middle of the python.
As early as 2015, China's working age population will actually start falling. By 2040, today's young workers will be pensioners - in fact the world's second largest population, after India, will be Chinese pensioners. There could well be 100m Chinese people aged over 80, more than the current worldwide total, as Richard Jackson and Neil Howe point out in their excellent paper, The Graying of the Middle Kingdom (CSIS 2004).
Because of China's one-child policy there will be fewer new workers under its so-called "4,2,1" population structure - four grandparents, two parents and one child. This is a demographic transition that many countries go through. But a process that is taking a century in the west will take 40 years there. The desperate rush for economic growth is fuelled by fears that China could grow old before it grows rich.
Not so long ago, China was one of the world's most youthful countries, with a median age of 20. Its median age is now estimated at 33. By 2050, the United Nations forecasts, China's median age could be 45, against 43 for the UK and 41 for the US.
Older countries are good at incremental improvements in productivity that come from age and experience. But they are not good at the type of performance improvements that come from doing things differently. Radical innovation seems to come from youth.
Another important dimension to all this is that China does not have a strong civil society. What it does have instead is strong family ties. Old people are the responsibility of their families, and about two-thirds of people aged over 65 in China live with their children. Only 1 per cent of those over 80 are in old people's homes, compared with 20 per cent in the US.
Imposing the one-child policy on these long established customs is having an extraordinary effect. A son is responsible for looking after his parents; a daughter looks after the family into which she marries and often delivers the care. If you can have only one child, it becomes highly desirable to have a boy. The rule is not as strictly enforced as it was, but you can now see its effect. For every 100 female second children, there are 152 males. Overall, there are now about 120 boys for every 100 girls in China.
The country is waking up to this extraordinary imbalance. Last yearit banned ultrasound testing to try to stop gender-based abortion. But already it means China is facing a world not unlike a traditional Oxbridge college, with far too many menrelative to women. That is why wecan already read in the media accounts of young women being bribed or even kidnapped from places such as North Korea or Vietnam. China is going to have to attract large-scale femaleimmigration or many of its young men will leave.
Gender balance can shape a society's values. If men are in the majority, their negotiating position is weak and they have to be prudent and hard-working to win a wife. If women are in the majority, it is their negotiating position that is weak and men can get away with being irresponsible and feckless. (One theory about the problems of America's inner cities is that there is a shortage of young men because of large-scale incarceration and high levels of military service.)
So China is going to be full of old people and rather earnest, frustrated young men. It will be one of the most dramatic and unusual demographic changes the world will have seen for a very long time, and Chinese leaders now would do well to plan for such a future.
The writer, the shadow trade and industry secretary, is a member of the Global Aging Initiative, established by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC 中国应警惕“未富先老”
中国国家主席本周出访英国，这为中英两国提供了一个探讨改善双边贸易关系和中国人权记录的良机。但我却希望，布莱尔首相也能适时提及中国不寻常的人口结构问题：未来数十年内，这一问题可能左右中国的命运。
中国经济实现骄人增长的原因之一在于：从人口结构角度来看，该国正处于一个最佳时期。上世纪 60 、 70 年代，在赤脚医生们的努力下，中国婴儿夭折率大幅下降，这正是目前涌现出大批年轻劳动力――每年新增 1000 多万工作年龄的成年人――的原因。目前，中国面临的挑战只是如何将这批人吸收到劳动力大军中。同时，来自农村的大量流动人口加剧了这种情况，这使人们明白：中国的工资水平为何如此之低，而经济增长速度如此之快。目前，中国领取退休金的老龄人口很少，儿童人数也不大。
最早从 2015 年开始，中国适龄劳动力人数实际上就会下降。到 2040 年，现在的年轻劳动力将成为退休者。实际上，中国退休者人数将构成仅次于印度的世界第二大人口。理查德?杰克逊 (Richard Jackson) 与尼尔?霍华德 (Neil Howe) 在其杰出的研究报告《银发中国》 (The Graying of the Middle Kingdom) 中指出，届时中国 80 岁以上的老龄人口可能高达 1 亿，高于目前全球 80 岁以上人口的总和。
由于中国实施的独生子女政策，在其所谓“ 4-2-1 ”人口结构 (4 位祖父母、 2 位父母和 1 个孩子 ) 下，新劳动力人数将越来越少。这是许多国家都在经历的人口结构过渡问题。不过，西方国家需用 100 年经历的过程，中国将只需要 40 年。担心在走向富裕之前面临老龄化问题，正是中国不顾一切追求经济增长的原因之一。
就在不久以前，中国还是全球最年轻的国家之一，其年龄中值为 20 岁。据估计，中国目前的年龄中值是 33 岁。联合国 (UN) 预测，到 2050 年，中国的年龄中值可能达到 45 岁，而英国和美国分别为 43 岁与 41 岁。
老龄化程度较高的国家长于不断提高生产率，这得益于年龄和经验。但是，在采用新颖方式以改善经济表现方面，这些国家没有优势。彻底的创新似乎源自年轻人。
上述所有问题的另一重要方面是，中国没有一个强大的公民社会，而是拥有紧密的家庭关系。在中国，赡养老人属于家庭责任， 65 岁以上人口中约有三分之二与子女共同生活。年逾 80 岁的老人中只有 1% 住在养老院，而在美国这一比例为 20% 。
在这些长期形成的习俗下推行独生子女政策，正在产生不寻常的影响。如果只能要一个孩子，那么人们会非常想要个男孩。虽说目前该政策执行得不像以前那么严格，但你可以发现它对第二胎的影响――很多中国人将此视为生男孩的最后机会。在第二胎中，男孩和女孩的比例为 1.52:1 。总体而言，中国目前的男、女孩比例为 1.2 比 1 。
中国开始意识到男女比例严重失调的问题。为了防止因性别选择原因而堕胎，去年中国下令禁止超声波检测。不过，这已经意味着中国正与传统的牛津与剑桥大学面临类似境况，即男性人数远高于女性。正因如此，我们已经看到一些媒体报道，称朝鲜和越南等地的年轻妇女被拐卖、甚至绑架到中国。中国将来必须吸引大批女性移民，否则该国很多年轻男性只得离开。
性别平衡可以影响社会的价值标准。如果男性占人口多数，他们就处于劣势，为了娶到老婆，他们就不得不小心谨慎、努力工作。反之，如果女性占多数，那么她们就会处于弱势，而男性就可以不负责任和无所事事，而照样混日子。 ( 有关美国内城区问题的一种理论认为，原因是大批入狱及服兵役造成年轻男性匮乏。 )
因此，未来中国社会将到处都是老年人和殷切、失意的年轻男性。世界将见证这一相当长时期内最富戏剧性、最不寻常的人口结构变化之一。中国领导人应为这种未来做好打算。
本文作者是英国反对党贸易和工业事务发言人，是全球老龄化机构 (Global Aging Initiative) 成员。该机构由位于华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心 (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) 建立。
